Dong Qiangqiang's Story of Leaving Germany

Chapter 761. Will the market get worse in the second half of the year?

"Since you think you won't find the answer for a while, you might as well think about it while applying (university). Didn't the ancients say 'the road is long and the road is long, I will search up and down'? If you really can't figure it out, at least Choose a major that you are interested in now and read it. If you are not interested in it now, you will probably not be interested in it in the future. If you are not interested, it may be difficult to persevere in German universities.”

"What about you? Have you decided where to go?" Wang Shunan's face seemed to be a little more ruddy than before, "Or economics?"

"Although it is not as good as medicine and law, economics majors have become more and more popular in Germany in the past few years. Not to mention the restrictions, the waiting time has not yet been determined, and I am not sure where I will go in the end. Now it seems that I can apply. Go to whichever (university) you want, and swing your body like catkins in the wind." Dong Qiangqiang made a resigned expression.

"You're too modest. I always thought you had a lot of ideas. Even if you don't study economics and study other (majors), it shouldn't be a problem." Wang Shunan mistakenly thought that Dong Qiangqiang's test was not satisfactory, and comforted him, "You also have more Application."

"Haitou is a must, at least I have to cast out all the notarized materials I have memorized, and as a result, I can only do my best to obey the destiny." Dong Qiangqiang said half-jokingly and half-seriously, "If no one really wants it, I will stay. If you are working illegally, you should save some money before leaving.”

"Then I wish you... Oh no, I wish us all good luck!" Wang Shunan stared at Dong Qiangqiang's face, "The mountains are high and the rivers are long. If you change the city, it may not be easy to meet again. Call when you have time."

"You too!"

"Hug me?" Wang Shunan's face was burning like charcoal, but it was not conspicuous because of his dark skin.

"Ok?"

Before Dong Qiangqiang could react, Wang Shunan had already opened his arms like a bird learning to fly, and put his arms around his waist on tiptoe.

Dong Qiangqiang had no choice but to bend down and hug her shoulders.

"Nice to meet you." Her voice was soft, "Take care!"

"Oh good. You too." Dong Qiangqiang looked at the classmates behind Wang Shunan with a red face, showing a shy and embarrassed smile.

Preparatory parking lot.

Dong Qiangqiang didn't know why Wang Shunan made such a sudden move. He hesitated whether to mention this matter to Du Lan, and worried that if he didn't explain it well...

He called his parents to announce the good news.Dong’s father carried out a critical education as always, asking Dong Qiangqiang to have a long-term vision. He should not be limited to a small master’s degree. Not a degree or a title, just a teaching system).

Compared with Dong's father's unrealistic, Dong's mother is more pragmatic. She cares about where her son will go to study next, whether he has enough money to spend, whether there are any difficulties or obstacles in study and work, and whether he can find it now. Short-term topics such as girlfriends, but long-term questions such as how long it will take to graduate with a master's degree and whether to return to China after graduation are not asked at all.

Dong Qiangqiang was worried that Dong's mother would talk about Qin Youbo again, and said that he would apply for college in the afternoon, so Dong's mother reluctantly hung up the phone.

As soon as he started the car, he saw two figures striding out from the main entrance of the preparatory department one after the other. The person in front was Qu Shan, and the person behind him should be her boyfriend named Fu Boning.

The two seemed to have a quarrel, talking and gesticulating fiercely, suddenly, Qu Shan angrily threw something to the ground, Fu Boning stepped forward and pushed her hard, Qu Shan was caught Pushed to the ground, Fu Boning pointed at her and cursed a few times before walking away.

Dong Qiangqiang didn't know why the two quarreled, and he intended to get out of the car to help Qushan, but then he thought about it, when encountering such a thing and meeting an acquaintance again, the person concerned would know how embarrassing it would be without thinking about it.Thinking of this, he retracted his hand that was already on the door handle.

On the second day, Dong Qiangqiang put the 12 notarized materials that had been sorted out, the copy of the preparatory school graduation certificate with the official seal of the preparatory school, and the application forms of the 12 universities into 12 kraft paper bags in turn, and then affixed the full amount of stamps. Then drive to the post office.

In order to prevent accidents, Dong Qiangqiang selected three universities in the eastern region as a guarantee, namely the University of Berlin, the University of Leipzig and the Technical University of Dresden. The remaining nine universities are located in the north, central and south of Germany. The two schools recommended by Tong Lele also have other universities with relatively strong economics majors, such as the University of Bonn, the University of Freiburg, the University of Frankfurt, and the University of Mannheim.

When the car drove outside the post office, a rain cloud floated in the sky, stopping impartially above the post office to rain.

According to Dong Qiangqiang's experience, the summer rain in Hannover usually comes and goes quickly, and it usually stops within 10 minutes.Therefore, although he didn't bring any rain gear, he was not in a hurry. Anyway, the post office closed early, and the rain might stop after a few minutes of patience.

The clouds were flickering and dark, and occasionally a white light would suddenly appear and then be fleeting. The light and shadow were unpredictable, and the thunder could only be heard after a while.

Dong Qiangqiang tilted the back of the chair slightly, trying to relax himself, allowing his thoughts to disperse wantonly like the rain being pushed away by the wipers.

Germany's DAX30 index has fallen from 4100 points at the beginning of the year to around 7 points in July, an astonishing drop. If the DAX index falls further in the future, perhaps he and Duanmu should consider adding more funds to buy put options on the index.Of course, as an important index of the top 3200 in Europe, the put options on the French market index must also buy some more.The only question is, will there be more downside for the broader market in both countries?Or should the question be asked, will the German economy get worse in the second half of the year?
This question is actually tantamount to asking, will the US economy get worse?

He thought about it carefully in his mind. The US financial market in the past two years can be described as horrible: the Internet industry bubble burst in early 2001 (Dong Qiangqiang worked in an Internet company before going abroad, and he was deeply impressed), and Nasda, which owns many new Internet companies Gram directly collapsed, which was the first blow to the US economy.When a group of investors hadn't woken up from the baton, they hit 911 head-on, the second blow. The aftermath of 911 has not died down, and Enron's fraudulent incidents have been revealed, which has since opened the curtain of a series of thunderbolts by US stock companies. Since 2002, the frenzy of fraud and exposure has swept the entire US stock market. Since then, the three major US stock indexes have never had peace. The company is mainly dominated by traditional American companies, and its index decline is much lower than that of Nasdaq).

It corresponds to the lyrics: one wave has not subsided, and another wave is coming again.

In this situation, the so-called recession is actually no different from an economic crisis.

The forecast given by Wall Street for economic recovery is 2-3 years. Of course, this is based on existing data and will be adjusted dynamically in the future.

The implication is that the second half of the year may be even worse.

Europe, which faces the United States across the ocean, is engrossed in guarding against and preventing the negative impact of the American economic crisis. However, global economic integration has made every country no longer an isolated island, so it is only a matter of time before it spreads to the European continent.

As the largest economy in Europe, Germany exports automobiles, machinery, chemicals, medicines, metals and other commodities to the world all year round, and the United States is its largest export partner.

While its biggest export partner is weakening, German economic data is starting to look poor.

After the war, Germany has been firmly pursuing the road of industrialization, and did not cultivate and support Internet companies with great fanfare like the United States in the 90s. Therefore, the stubborn Germans firmly believe that there are neither as many bubbles in the German economy as in the United States, nor financial fraud. Germany, a country ruled by industry, has only encountered an economic downturn, and is far from the plight of economic recession or even economic crisis. It is not the same as some small countries beside the Mediterranean Sea.

Having said that, the Germans also know very well that they did not fall into economic recession immediately because of their strong family background. In time, no one can guarantee that Germany will not be dragged into the quagmire by the United States.

The U.S. is acting more and more like an old horse stuck in a quagmire. Although it keeps pushing its hooves out, the mud dragging it to the bottom of the pit is too strong, and the edge of the mud pit is slippery. It is not easy to get out. thing.

With lessons learned from the past, various departments in Germany tried their best to stimulate the economy, but the most important financial sector could hardly do much in the short term.

Due to the official use of the euro, the German central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, no longer has the right to mint coins, and the mint rights have been firmly controlled by the European Central Bank. Stimulating the economy is not in line with the usual style of the ECB and the Germans.The managers of the European Central Bank believe that neither economic recession nor economic recovery can be achieved overnight, and that there must be a cause and an effect. Before the real reason is found, one should not blindly start with the amount of money.

If the European Central Bank does not intervene, it means that the economic recession may be widespread for a long period of time, and every country in Europe is bound to take strict precautions to prevent its own economic recession from turning into a complete economic crisis.

Dong Qiangqiang has studied Western economics and knows that there are many indicators to measure economic recession, such as the level of economic vitality, the increase or decrease of the number of unemployed, the degree of deflation and so on.

Before that, he paid money to become a member of the Lower Saxony Environmental Protection Industry Association in order to study waste treatment.According to the information regularly received by the association, the number of closed down and bankrupt environmental protection companies in Lower Saxony this year is zero, and many newly established environmental protection companies have joined the association.Although new companies are generally small in scale, they are not low in activity. At the same time, it is rare for Dong Qiangqiang to hear that they cannot apply for bank loans or government subsidies.If you can see it from the inside, the economic vitality of German SMEs does not seem to be affected much by the United States.

When it comes to the changes in the number of unemployed, Dong Qiangqiang has even more feelings.Whenever he passes by the door of the labor bureau or different employment agencies, he can always see the job-hunting queue outside the door. In addition to foreigners with different skin colors, there are also Germans in bright clothes and briefcases. Before going abroad, he thought that Germans would not be unemployed.

As for prices, from January to July, the supply of various commodities in German supermarkets has been abundant, and the price level has remained stable for a long time. The fresh milk of a certain brand that Dong Qiangqiang has been drinking for a long time is always 1.99 euros per barrel. The price of gasoline or diesel changes. The magnitude is smaller.The European Central Bank has not announced any additional currency issuance (if there is a newspaper, there must be reports), and there is no sign of inflation or deflation in the market.

Although his personal observation is contrary to the German economic data, at first glance it seems difficult to judge whether the market outlook is a rebound or a slump, but his intuition tells him that the DAX index will continue to fall.

He has a vague feeling that the biggest gain he has gained from this economic crisis is not a monetary return, but a basic common sense of investment: once a similar economic crisis occurs again, he must buy the bearish stocks of the index as soon as possible. options.

===
Originality is not easy.Welcome up.Click %中￥文#.com to support the genuine original novel "The Story of Dong Qiangqiang's Study in Germany".

(End of this chapter)