Dong Qiangqiang's Story of Leaving Germany

884 Chapter 884. Subtraction

"The reports I've seen are also as you said: Although the first quarter has not yet ended, European and American stock markets have shown amazing strength."

"I didn't go to the United States in January. My colleagues who participated in several investment forums in the old United States told me that the three major stock markets in the United States have broken the straight-line decline that has occurred in the past three years. Many investment institutions have re-entered the market and bet on the economy. The index will have a stronger rebound in the second half of the year, and a larger proportion of institutions are optimistic about economic recovery."

"But I also learned that although the stock market is recovering, there is not much exciting good news in the financial market and the economic world, and there is a lot of bad news."

"For example?" Duanmu's eyes lit up, "Another big company has a financial scandal? Which one?"

"In 1998, the U.S. federal budget achieved its first surplus in 29 years, reaching 692 billion U.S. dollars. In 1999, it was also a surplus of 1240 billion U.S. dollars. In 2000, the surplus was 2370 billion U.S. dollars, almost doubled. In 2001, it was still a surplus, but it fell back to 1272 billion U.S. dollars. billion. By 2002, the deficit was back at center stage, at $1590 billion.”

"Four years, back to the starting point." Duanmu said with joy, "Although this is indeed not optimistic data, it is good for us who are bearish on the stock market."

"In addition to the fiscal deficit, demonstrations against the US-Iran war broke out in many cities in the United States this year. It should be the largest anti-war demonstration since the Vietnam War. When I was in preparatory school, my teacher talked about an economic phenomenon: if a country’s society If internal conflicts are severe, they will tend to divert the attention of the domestic people by launching foreign wars or creating geopolitical conflicts, and at the same time use wars to stimulate the economy. This was the case in the Afghanistan war after '911', and it is still the case in this war against Iraq. And recently The speed of layoffs of many large companies in the United States has also increased to a higher level. Almost every day in the back pages of newspapers there are articles condemning the low employment rate. If you take listed companies with financial scandals from time to time, fiscal deficits, wars and low employment rates, etc. Looking at the information together, can it put a question mark on the view that the US economy is recovering?"

"Since you are not optimistic about the U.S. economy, does that mean that the U.S. stock market has room to continue to fall? Then the German and French stocks will follow suit, right?" Duanmu woke up after speaking, "I see, You still want to take it."

"On the contrary." Dong Qiangqiang said carefully, "I think maybe we should sell the put options on these two indexes now."

"They're all sold?" Duanmu was confused by Dong Qiangqiang's words, and he couldn't help suspecting that he was hallucinating, "But the big deal you analyzed just now means that the US economy is still struggling in the quagmire? Then its European backyard will certainly not Immediately enlightenment."

"I told you before that I have always believed that the German and French capital markets and the US capital market are developing in the same direction, but compared with the US stocks, the large-cap indexes in both Germany and France lag behind to a certain extent. Now the Dow Jones, Standard & Poor's And Nasdaq are rising. If I am right, it is a matter of time before DAX and CAC follow suit. Then we must be wrong to be bearish on them. But what if I am wrong? The US economy is indeed still in the quagmire China, but the economies of Germany and France are not lagging, but others, so we are still wrong to be bearish on them.”

"What do you mean by 'other'?" Duanmu asked.

"Independence." Dong Qiangqiang replied, "Since last year, Germany and France, the most important of the European troika, have been more actively deploying emerging markets like China than before: France is focusing on electricity, aircraft, and communications. , and even luxury goods, Germany is promoting automobiles, steel, chemicals and medicine, but this is not the most important reason why I think we should sell (options).”

"Then what is the most important reason?" Duanmu was very interested.

“Before we were bearish on a certain company, we only needed to pay attention to the company’s financial and business aspects. However, there are too many factors to consider when bearishing a capital market, such as financial conditions, inflation, demographic changes, and trade flows. , monetary policy, and interest rates that you just mentioned, it's endless, endless, and it's not easy even for those who pay attention to these factors for a long time, it's not a simple ambition anymore. I'm getting The more I feel, the fact that we are shorting the company is based on facts, and the shorting on the market is based on opinions and forecasts, but we are ordinary people and cannot predict the trend of the macro economy. At most, we can pat our heads..."

"At most, you can decide which companies can be emptied by slapping your head." Duanmu asked back, "But isn't it also based on opinions and predictions that you just saw the public?"

"Haha, you're right," Dong Qiangqiang said without hesitation, "but predicting the company is still easier than predicting the market. Since we didn't lose money this time, we should just let it go. Unless we encounter '911 again. 'You can speculate on that kind of extreme event or a real financial crisis, otherwise neither of us should put our energy and funds on it in the future. Do subtraction, what do you think?
Dong Qiangqiang finished talking like a cannonball, but Duanmu didn't say a word for a long time. Dong Qiangqiang guessed his psychology and took a step back: "If you are really unwilling, or you can sell some and keep some like Mu Zai, first sell the French ones. , how about keeping the German ones?"

"I'm not reluctant, and what you said is not unreasonable. Seizing the opportunity and catching wild boars may be your talents. You have a better sense of this than me." Duanmu said quietly, "It's just that for a moment just now, you seem to be different from before. Same."

"What's different?" Dong Qiangqiang was taken aback by the words, "Did I say something wrong?"

"I didn't say anything wrong, it's just that when you mentioned Munich Re reminded me of '911', you seemed very angry when I told you that you could buy put options on it."

Dong Qiangqiang was silent for a while, and the plane seemed to fly past his eyes again.When he mentioned Muzai just now, he didn't have any association at all. Have you forgotten?he asked himself.

Perhaps realizing that he had hit Dong Qiangqiang's pain, Duanmu didn't say anything more, and asked while typing on the keyboard: "The overall tax point in St. Kitts can be controlled within 5%, and there should be tax avoidance measures. Specifically, I also want to ask the accountants and lawyers, if the old man does not object, which account is appropriate for me to transfer the dividends to you after paying the taxes?"

"Deutsche Bank will do."

"I plan to deposit the money in Wind Valley Bank in California, USA. The service of the American bank is still better than that of Germany. You should also open one. There is no need to put it here. Next time (I) go to the United States, you remember to give I have a power of attorney, and I will open one for you. There is another thing, you should have received a text message now."

Before Duanmu finished speaking, Dong Qiangqiang's mobile phone made a "ding" sound.

Just listen to Duanmu continue to say: "I also opened the transaction authority for you, and you can use the transaction password received by your mobile phone every time you make a transaction in the future, and it will not conflict with mine."

Dong Qiangqiang's account originally only had the browsing function, and he never asked Duanmu to activate the trading function for him. I don't know what Duanmu thought of today, so he took the initiative to upgrade him.

"Why do you suddenly want to do this?" Dong Qiangqiang asked, "I don't need it, just operate it."

"From the moment their money comes in, you should have authority. If I can't deal with the transaction because I'm busy, I'll have to rely on you."

"Do you have anything else? My phone is about to run out." Unknowingly, the two chatted for nearly an hour, and Dong Qiangqiang could barely hold the hot phone. He saw that the battery was only one bar left, and the phone screen Numbers and letters also started to appear and disappear, and it looked like it might shut down at any moment.

But Duanmu didn't answer, and there was a busy tone from the phone.Dong Qiangqiang quickly connected the charger and dialed Duanmu, but the other party's mobile phone returned a prompt of "shut down", it seems that Duanmu's mobile phone is also out of battery.

(End of this chapter)