Xinshun 1730

Chapter 1218 Thoughts of Luntai ([-])
When the emperor heard Liu Yu's suggestion that he could save money, he didn't immediately agree in excitement, but he immediately thought of Liu Yu's method.

I'm afraid it will be to promote industry and commerce, sell land, open commercial ports, sell rent, etc.Many of them are the ideas of Wang Kunsheng of the Yan Li school, such as upgrading urban land and selling land rent, in other words, opening commercial ports, conducting commerce, and then renting the land to merchants.

As for the rest, such things as developing industry and commerce, planting cash crops, building roads, and rivers, there is no need to think about it.

Songsu and other places are rich in capital, but it is difficult to enter the interior because of the imperial government's policy.The emperor has always been quite vigilant about introducing "foreign" capital.

If the imperial court borrows money, the interest rate is a bit high, but Dashun is not as low as the financial market in Amsterdam, where the annual interest rate can be about 4%.

Repairing the river embankment is thankless, and there is no capital interest at all. Merchants will definitely not pay a penny.

Maybe some may be donated, but whether the donated money is enough to repair dozens of miles is a question, a drop in the bucket.

The concept of the Yellow River embankment is not a matter of just rubbing two piles of soil.

Of course, there are also advantages to building rivers in advance.At the very least, the river channel washed out after the Yellow River burst and flooded cannot be dredged.

But if the river channel is prepared manually, it can be dug deep in advance.

Although it may take seven or eight years to dig the depth, the Yellow River can be flattened in three to five years, or ten years, but at least within ten years, there is no need to worry about major incidents.

Moreover, it can also be reserved in advance for irrigation waterways and so on.

However, it is absolutely impossible for merchant capital to pay for this money.Unless the imperial court borrows money and asks merchants to borrow money at an interest rate in line with the market, the interest will be repaid in the future.

In the era of paper currency, it is easy to say that borrowing can depreciate, which actually means that you don’t spend much money.

But now is the golden and silver age, and Dashun’s banknotes are so big. If you want to continue to expand and overissue, you must complete the nationwide currency reform.

This is another frustrating matter, and the emperor will be very afraid, for fear of bringing up the old affairs of the previous dynasty's banknotes.

And Liu Yu's methods are used to making capital profit, so as to lure merchants with money to do things.

So what's left to make a profit?

It is nothing more than building railways and canals.The repair is not in vain. After the repair is completed, it is enough to give management rights and dividends.

Of course, according to Liu Yu's approach, it seems that if you choose to levy domestic tariffs or provincial tariffs, you can also collect a sum of money.

For example, let go of the Shandong market, let Songsu's industrial and commercial goods impact the local small-scale peasant economy in Shandong, set up "customs" in Jiaodong, and levy domestic tariffs like bullshit.

If Songsu's products can completely kill Shandong's handicraft industry, then maybe they can really collect a "tariff" of two or three million taels a year.Maybe even more.

At that time, Shandong will grow some peanuts, tobacco, cotton, grain, etc., and "export" them to Songsu, Nanyang, and Japan. It is not impossible to make some landlords rich first.

Historically, the result of doing this is that after a large number of commodities came in, the labor force in Shandong was so cheap that a long-term worker could only earn 50 catties of sorghum rice for a month.

Moreover, the speed of land annexation is simply rapid.Especially for cash crops such as tobacco, which requires a lot of capital investment.

Economic crops eat the land very well.

They have to buy bean cakes to fertilize the fields and coal to flue-cured tobacco. Small farmers are pushed to the extreme. Without this capital, they can only mortgage their land in exchange for bean cakes and coal needed this year.

How high is the interest rate on this mortgage?
In fact, in old China, it could be regarded as "the breath of benevolence and righteousness".

According to the records of Weixian and other places, the interest rate for asking landlords to borrow bean cakes from fertile fields is 8% per month and 96% per year; while the interest rate for buying coal from shops is more humane, with an annual interest rate of only 25% to 40%. Ten months count as one year, not twelve months.

How about not growing cash crops?Three or four acres of land, planting some grain, paying exorbitant taxes, and eating sweet potatoes every day, it seems that it is possible to survive starvation.

The problem is that under the private ownership of small farmers, everyone wants to run, and the small farmers become rich peasants, and the rich peasants become landlords.Take a gamble, if the price of cigarettes takes off this year, won't you just pay off the old debts and buy an extra two or three acres of land?Besides, the prerequisite for eating sweet potatoes on three or four acres of land is that they have not suffered disasters and have not borrowed usury.

Liu Yu judged that the possible railway from the capital to Hankou would have little impact on the Central Plains, and the chance of land enclosure movement was very small. That was not nonsense.

Railways also require transportation costs, especially for the cargo capacity of this era, the cost is very high.Shipping it out, plus freight costs, is not profitable at all.

Shandong is quite different.Being so close to the sea and shipping so cheap, it is very possible for land to be merged or even developed into an enclosure.

Tobacco, cotton, peanuts, it's all possible.Just like Guandong, Liu Yu introduced Songsu Capital, enclosing land and buying contracted long-term workers to grow beans is similar, and it is profitable.

Taking history as a mirror, countries have different traditions.

Raksha State, because of its traditional village community system and the Orthodox Old Ritual School’s tradition of collective mutual assistance in village communities, considers avoiding the pain of capitalism and directly crosses this canyon to reach the goal in one step.

On the side of Dashun, because of its traditional idea of ​​land equalization, this will naturally arise: can industrialization be completed under the condition of minimizing the pain of small farmers through the traditional retro thinking of land equalization and land state ownership?
After all, tradition itself is also an integral part of the real material world.

And another reality is that a part of Dashun has already taken the lead, and will soon seize the largest raw material market and occupy a high position in the dumping trade.There is no shortage of primitive accumulation of capital, nor is it in a situation where it needs to catch up after being behind for more than a hundred years.

Tradition and reality have also created a theoretical transformation that can be completed by relieving the pain of small farmers to the greatest extent.But this requires a large-scale armed uprising of people with industrial thinking and the participation of the class representing the new era to complete the matter of land equalization, so as to avoid falling into the "limitations of small farmers" after the uprising succeeds.

It's just that the situation that Dashun is facing now is split.

Thinking that the fuzzy, illusory but palpable industrialization is the right way, they are all a group of radical progressives. Liu Yu has been saying all day long not to wait for the sword, and they can't hold them back. They use the situation in Songsu and Kanto as a template; The retro-confucianists who wrote Juntian Jingtian were all a group of retro-reactionary elements, who themselves opposed the excessive development of industry and commerce, and their minds were still the kind of utopian society where "every labor gets full exchange".

The purpose of the former is correct, but in the situation of Dashun, nothing can be done, and the shit can be beaten out by the unprecedented large-scale peasant uprising and the old gentry and landlord forces.

Let’s first consider how much the emerging class is now. Considering that the taxes I provide are similar to traditional land rents, do you really think that you control as many resources as the gentry and landlords?
The latter method can be used for reference, but their minds are still stuck on the rule of three generations and utopian ideas, which can make the capitalist world grind shit out.

If they really follow their method, they will definitely abandon India, release Southeast Asia, reduce the navy, divide feudalism, discuss politics among the gentry and students in the province, and recommend good talents. That's the end of it.

Of course, Liu Yu would definitely not talk about these things that would make the emperor blow his hair and scare him to death.

However, facing the emperor, it is impossible for him to fool around with the words "there are only advantages and no harm" like facing the prince, because it is a bit difficult to fool.

Moreover, the emperor's style of speaking to Liu Yu has been understood for many years. For those things that "only have advantages and no disadvantages", most of them are talking about a bunch of advantages, waiting for the half of the matter to be done. And the downside...

Now Liu Yu is uttering bold words, saying that maybe only 5000 to [-] million taels will be able to accomplish this "immeasurable merit" event... Where will the money come from?The emperor must have to consider this issue.

Even if Liu Yu resists the criticism of everyone and does not hesitate to come up with something similar to the refugee map, in the planned no-man's land of the river, it is to seize the land of the landlord and send them all to reclamation... The money for repairing embankments and changing transportation lines , The money for re-planning the water conservancy project is definitely not just 5000 to [-] million taels.

After finishing Songsu, let Liu Yu do another wave of Shandong?
In fact, this has already surpassed the bottom line of the emperor's distinction between inside and outside.

Perhaps the emperor was not as dark as Liu Yu thought, but in fact, that darkest thought was precisely the feasible, controllable, and most beneficial method for the imperial power.

The current situation is what the emperor thinks, so there is no need to delve into it at this time.

Now it is a private conversation, and Liu Yu has already made it very clear and understandable, and it can be regarded as a direct public.

Behind this sentence is the disaster that tens of millions of people may encounter, and tens of thousands of square miles in Shandong may be flooded, which will affect the stability of water conservancy and farmland in Shandong for decades to come.

Also, the price of grain in Shandong has been rising in the past few years. This can no longer be explained by "a good harvest means cheap grain, and a bad harvest means expensive grain." This explanation is based on the 1000 million population and 7000 million arable land in Shandong. But now with a population of more than 2000 million, the arable land has not increased much, so explaining it in this way is really desperate.

There are some things that you can say in private.

But once it is taken outside and fired publicly at the court, things are likely to be difficult to end.

At that time, whether to do it or not to do it will involve more problems.

Whether it is done or not, if it is really discussed publicly in the court, whether it is done or not, it will face countless nonsense and troubles.

This is not just as simple as local Jiedu envoys wanting to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages for the local area, but also involves a "practical school" who wants to throw the Yellow River to Shandong for Songsu's similar rhetoric. I can't hold back anymore.

Therefore, it is impossible for the emperor to refuse directly and tell Liu Yu directly, no.

Rejection is simple.

But how to ensure that there is no one who is not afraid of death, and make this matter a big deal?It's really big, and it will be even uglier when a farce like "life and death" is forced out - who dares to say that the Yellow River will not burst?What are you betting on?Gambler?Bet on the whole family?

Besides, since Liu Yu dared to undertake this matter, in the eyes of the emperor, he was really rushing to die.I am not afraid of death, and I am not afraid of being stabbed in the back. This kind of hob meat is really hard and uncomfortable.

Of course, as long as Liu Yu doesn't directly refuse and Liu Yu insists on causing trouble, then this matter cannot be regarded as Liu Yu forcing the court to do something.

After all, it still depends on the emperor's attitude and what Liu Yu will do if it is not allowed.

The emperor thought for a while and asked, "Let's not mention things like surveying and mapping, civil servants, and land acquisition. Apart from these things, what do you think we should do?"

Liu Yu hurriedly said: "Return to Your Majesty. To raise funds from private merchants, build the railway first. From Jiaodong to Jinan, transfer to Jining and Yanzhou."

"If the Yellow River is to be repaired, the water transportation of the Daqing River and the Xiaoqing River will be damaged. We must first pass the road to maintain the original business operations in Shandong and the transfer of the salt industry, otherwise we will mess up if we act rashly."

"As for the Jining area, since the canal was abandoned, it is becoming more and more dilapidated, and there are more and more refugees. It is better to recruit labor to build roads and bridges."

"And since we want to control the river, we must consider immigration. If there is no railway, it will be too difficult to emigrate. If Jiaozhou can be connected, there will be a famine, or you can travel across the ocean, or you can go north to Liaodong, all of which are convenient. "

"What's more, if you are harnessing the river and building embankments, you have to transfer grain and rice. Nowadays, all the rice is transported to the sea. If there is no road bridge, it will be very inconvenient to harness the river and build embankments."

"Even if you manage the river, you don't need to shepherd Yanzhou and town Qingzhou. You only need to supervise the river for about [-] miles. In addition, there are several places such as Linzi and Weixian connected by the railway. Even if it fails, it will not disrupt the politics of the whole Shandong."

Before the canal was abolished, Shandong's economic center and developed areas were Southwest and Northwest Shandong.It is the opposite of future generations.

And Linzi, an ancient city 2000 years ago, has been mixed into a county; Weifang has lost even a state, and has been mixed into a small county.

In Weihai and other places, because of Liu Yu's military training and school opening and the opening of air routes to North Korea in the early years, in the emperor's mind, it was considered "outside" which was different from inside and outside.

Now Liu Yu said that it is not as big as Songsu, but that it only needs to be along the river of Duzhen, three or two poor counties, and a small place like Jiaodong Bay with tens of thousands of people in the past. This makes the emperor feel that This matter is really not negotiable.

Merchants contributed capital, and the railway could not fly away. What to say in the future, in the eyes of the emperor, naturally there are good and bad opinions.

(End of this chapter)