Xinshun 1730

Chapter 1415 The Last Step of the Yellow River Problem ([-])
This counter-intuitive reason actually stems from the mainstream understanding of colonization and trade at this time.

The trade idea of ​​mercantilism is suitable for Europe at this time, but it is not suitable for Dashun.

Of course, the idea of ​​free trade is not very suitable for Dashun, at least for the time being, the unified domestic market is far away, because the population of the first industrial revolution is only on the order of millions, and Dashun may not be able to participate in it Small farmers are at the billion level.

Therefore, Dashun's policy attitude towards Xinyizhou has produced such a counter-intuitive effect: I hope that the faster the industrial development here, the better, the faster the development, the faster the relocation can be completed to alleviate the pain of local transformation the goal of.

This is because the situation of each country is different, and it cannot be applied mechanically.

Just as what the United Kingdom needs to solve is the shortage of land-lost wage laborers; Russia needs to solve the problem of geographical stuckness. According to the transportation cost theory of free trade, Russia should not have the problem of economic prosperity; To manage the economy well, even if it is at the level of three.

And Dashun is now.

There is a market, the entire east of the Cape of Good Hope, and the old three trades in Europe.

There is a population, the million-level population required for the first industrial revolution, and the refugees caused by the "natural annexation" of Dashun every year are more than this number.

With capital, primitive accumulation has been done very well. Since the Ming Dynasty, it has continuously attracted silver from all over the world. The distance from the gold and silver shortage of "deflation" is only short of the gold and silver mines in San Francisco and Yinshan.

There is technology, even if it is only a handicraft industry, the technology is leading, and the steam engine has begun to be used in some industrial departments in southern Sichuan, Songsu, Gyeonggi and other places.

The only problem is how to transform and how to get through the transformation.

Liu Yu's thinking was clear from the very beginning: rely on overseas markets to support the emerging class, and wait for the emerging class to grow stronger, or the storm of revolution in Europe and India breaks out, so that the growing emerging class will return to the domestic market.

This thing must be very painful.

Historically, the sub-port tax issue that Hankou was forced to open and close is also happening in Dashun today.

The problem is still the same sentence: the two Opium Wars and the subsequent imperialist aggression, the biggest problem is that the national capital has been killed, not the destruction of the small peasant economy. Once it rises, it is impossible to be killed by imperialism, but the problem is that after the rise of national capital, the small peasant economy will also die.

The small peasant economy died in the hands of its own national capital?Or die in the hands of imperialism?

In the matter of death, there is no difference.

But in whose hands it will make a big difference.

Death in the hands of external imperialism means that national capital is also dead.

Death in the hands of the national capital of the country means that the national capital of the country is alive.

In other words, from the very beginning, Dashun has to solve two things:

One: National capital survives and develops.

Two: How to make the small peasant economy die, and how to operate the dying process so that the death can be controlled.

Liu Yu has been tossing and tossing for these years, but in fact he only solved the first matter, and he dared not touch the second matter at all. He never even thought that this matter could be accomplished by the reform of the feudal dynasty of Dashun.

That's why he thought that Dashun must die.

Of course, things have to be done little by little, and that doesn't mean that reforms are useless.

For example, in the Northeast, due to many reasons, including subsequent relocation, the soybean industry that is directly connected to Dashun’s capitalist system cycle, and the climate cannot grow cotton.

The small peasant economy in the Northeast is not strong, and even if there is, even if it dies, it will not hurt so much when it dies.If the family has an average of tens of mu of land, although it will be hit, it is not impossible to survive.

For example, in the Songsu area, relying on 30 years of reforms, the small-scale peasant economy has been disintegrated little by little. For example, along the canal in Nantong, although in form it is still male farming and female weaving, contracted to buy iron-wheel looms for women to use at home. Weaving cloth, but these cloths are purely traded in the domestic and international markets, so this kind of male farming and female weaving cannot be regarded as a complete small-scale peasant economy, even if the form is still male farming and female weaving.

In North China, it can be said that the problem is the most difficult to solve.

In fact, this is a very, very simple "arithmetic problem".

Under the basic premise of no chemical fertilizers, no large-scale water conservancy projects, no improved varieties, and three crops in two years in North China began to promote the basic premise that the yield per mu is calculated as 150 catties.

According to the actual tax rate of Dashun—not the national tax rate, the main function of the national tax rate is to write bullshit in the history books—it is about 20%.

According to the presupposition that men farm and women weave, the handicraft industry in the village collapses, and Songsu goods flow freely without domestic tariffs.

Regardless of the dream of children going to school and so on, it's all like this, so what else to go to school.

Natural disasters, floods, droughts, etc. are also not considered.

After getting rid of taxes, removing labor, etc., the most basic expenses such as salt, oil, cooking fire, and the most basic pair of trousers at home cannot go out barefoot.

Then according to the price of one stone and one tael of silver even if the grain price.

Calculate how much food each person needs to eat each year to have a full stomach.

It is easy to draw a conclusion: if you want to make the transformation less painful, at least ordinary people can survive, not to say that they cannot survive at all, and it is impossible to consider factors such as chemical fertilizers in a short period of time.

On average, each person needs at least 8 acres of land, and this situation does not consider any form of floods, droughts, wars, plagues, etc.And assume that everyone is a self-cultivator, not a tenant, or a tenant of the land.

This is a very simple arithmetic problem.

Of course, everyone knows that the word "average" is very magical.

Moreover, it is impossible to live without drought, flood, plague, etc., and not get sick for a lifetime.

However, even if all of this is assumed to be a perfect situation, then... can some areas in North China reach 8 acres of land per capita?

If you can't reach this line, you will inevitably rebel, and the people will be in dire straits under the impact.

This is still under the conditions that Dashun is rainy and hot at the same time, agricultural technology is leading the world at this time, and the yield per mu is the highest in the world at this time.

Historically, in the 17th year of Jiaqing in the Qing Dynasty, the population of Shandong exceeded 3.5, and the per capita arable land area reached an extremely dangerous 2.8 mu, and soon reached [-] mu, where a large-scale uprising must erupt.

By the 34th year of Guangxu in the Qing Dynasty, Shandong's "human cost" had reached the lowest value in history: the daily wages of part-time workers were equivalent to 1.9 catties of sorghum rice.Note that it is sorghum rice, not wheat, not rice.

Therefore, in fact, Dashun is now in North China, and has reached a turning point in history.

This is also one of the important reasons why the emperor decided to agree to solve the problem of the Yellow River - the per capita land area has reached a dangerous value. If the Yellow River really broke down and flooded several state capitals, it must be a super-large-scale peasant uprising.

Just looking at Shandong, there is still a chance theoretically, and the land per capita has not yet reached an extremely low state.

The east can break through the Guandong and divert a group; the southeast can develop industry, grow tobacco, and rely on rice from Japan and North Korea to eat the difference between industry and agriculture; the west can move as many people as possible through problems such as the Yellow River Canal...

At least, in theory, there is a chance to complete the transformation with low pain after averaging fields.

Although, Juntian itself is an unattainable thing.But material things are not created out of thin air. Even if the land is averaged, how much land and population are there in Shandong? Tian or 50 inferior fields.

Therefore, this led to the reformers of the Dashunshi School, whose attitude towards the new Yizhou in North America was incompatible with the European mercantilist colonial thinking at this time.

In short: What kind of a fart is the market?What's more, the sea is blocked, and there are all one-way runs there. If you go there, you can't bring food back. How can you go through such a toss.

Conversely, the purpose of tossing is to quickly absorb the population there.

If you can moisten everything, run everything you can run, and go everywhere you can go, if within 30 years, you can moisten 500 million people, and counting those who have entered the Guandong, the per capita land area in Shandong will be pulled to 10 mu. This is the largest "merit".

With this great achievement as the goal, not to mention the development of the textile industry in Xinyizhou, even if Xinyizhou can develop the silk industry and the porcelain industry, that is fine.As long as the industry can be developed, it will be fine to pull people there.

And pulling people... The West Coast is not the East Coast, the Pacific Ocean is not the Atlantic Ocean, and Jinshan is not the land environment like the southeastern cotton belt. Planting and plantations cannot be pulled away by one person, because there is no profit at all.

The gold mine can raise 50 million, which is as high as the sky; Liu Yu misappropriated the stock capital of the bubble company, and moved 50 million as high as the sky.

With a population of 10, it can scare France, Britain, and Spain.But for Dashun... even without Dashun, just Shandong Province, it's a drop in the bucket.

Therefore, Dashun can and can only use the modern colonial technology criticized by Lao Ma to artificially rely on state power and land nationalization to distort prices and pull immigrants.

Instead of relying on the so-called "free colonization" on the east coast.

Let me give you a simple example: you are a poor peasant in Luxi, and you are the most willing to immigrate. Even if you know how good Fusang is and how much land there is, can you move there by yourself?
How much can a family of poor peasants sell for more than ten acres of land?How much does it cost to walk from Luxi to Jinan, and then from Jinan to Weihai?
Ship from Weihai...even if the ticket is free, even if you show kindness, even if the imperial court builds a ship without a ticket.

Then, take the most classic Manila sailing ocean current route, at least six months.

For these six months, I can't work, so I have to eat, right?Need some water?
Let's just say, all of them showed great kindness, and drinking water on the boat didn't cost money.

So, how much does it cost to eat for six months?You can save enough money for the whole family to go hungry without working for six months, and you deserve to be called a poor peasant?
When you get there, the seeds will not bear fruit the next day after being sown, and you have to wait for another year.

Even if you are the reincarnation of Gao Cuilan's husband, you don't need a cow to work, and you bring your own nine-tooth rake and other tools to dig the ground directly, then you have to wait until the wheat is ripe.

Before and after, there is no family property of a hundred taels of silver, so can you move away?

But you have a family property of a hundred taels of silver, and you can’t be a landlord if you go there—because a landlord must not only have land but also a tenant farmer, and you can’t be a landlord if you have land but no tenant farmer—you have both Why do you have to go over there to become a self-cultivator?

Besides, it is impossible for the ferry ticket to cost nothing.

So, the reality is: if your family doesn’t have a family property of 500 taels, you can’t leave; but if you have a family property of 500 taels, you don’t want to go.

In the East Coast mode, you can be an indentured slave and work on farms and plantations.That's because the east coast has the whole of Europe as a market, the plantations are profitable, and the labor of indentured slaves can exploit the surplus value.

West coast model, what idiot would start a plantation on the west coast?what?Where to sell it?How to make money?The plantation model, unless Dashun is completely crazy, not only can’t grow opium in the local area, but even Southeast Asia, Ezo, India, Turkey and other places are not allowed to grow or harvest opium, and only the west coast is allowed to grow opium and sell it to the country. Build the plantation immigration model.

Therefore, whether slaves or contract slaves, the essence is to participate in world trade and extract the labor income of contract slaves or slaves.

If it cannot be squeezed out, or cannot be squeezed out, then there will be no contract slaves, slaves, or long-term contract workers in Dashun.

The key lies in the words "extracting surplus value".

The plantation can't be done.

Tenant landlords, and landlords have no eccentricities. If they collect a pile of grain, they just love grain rather than use it.

Gold mines have limited labor capacity.

Then, we can only develop industry and create an environment that can "extract surplus value", so that private capital and factory owners can catch people from Dashun.

The larger the scale, the more arrests.

The more people there are, the easier it is to scale.

Therefore, Dashun's policy for Xinyizhou is to "encourage the development of industries in the colonies".

This is completely different from the colonial policy of the past, European, and mercantilism.

Therefore, Xinyizhou and the West Coast are the only ones in the world at this time, including all colonial countries such as Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, and the Netherlands, that support the development of colonial industries and are guided and supported by the government.

(End of this chapter)