Kingdom of Heaven and Han

Chapter 748 Officials Must Learn Statistics
There is a gun field for testing guns behind the gun workshop, which is very convenient.And the testing methods are complete, which is not comparable to other places.Liu Ziyu's cannon was pulled here, and it was placed on the cannon position.

In fact, it doesn't cost much to try a cannon. It is nothing more than gunpowder and shells, and the shells can be recycled and recast.The problem is that the Gunsmith has already tried it, and there's no need to try again.Not only is it a test gun, but when the factory manufactures the gun, it also needs to check many items such as airtightness, compactness, and casting defects.The inspection of these items cannot be explained to the generals who came to buy the guns, and they cannot be asked to look at the guns when they are testing the guns.Therefore, the people in the workshop are very annoying when the generals ask for a test gun.

Chen Qiudao, Chen Yuyi, Wang Ruohai, and Wang Yan sat around in the Henan government office, Wang Xiaolie's official hall.Wang Xiaolie in the middle put down the official document and said: "There is nothing to do today, let's talk about the imaginary issue. In fact, I am immature in thinking about this issue, so I have always avoided talking about it. But now it seems that it is really impossible not to talk about it." Yes. For our officials and military officers, if we don’t clarify this issue clearly, it will be difficult to do a lot of work.”

After speaking, he ordered the soldiers to serve tea to everyone, and took a sip himself.

Putting down his teacup, Wang Xiaolie said: "In recent days, some officials have supplemented it, and former officials have also raised some. How to govern has become a big problem. I advocate that officials should learn from some cases and learn from other people's governance. Learning about governance. However, our time is too short, the organization is poor, and the number of cases is not enough. Cases take a long time, and there are many cases, so that it is easy to learn. If there are fewer, what is the difference compared with regulations? "

Chen Qiudao said: "Is there any way to do this? We can only learn slowly and accumulate slowly."

Wang Xiaolie sighed: "But officials can't wait. They want to govern now, and they have to find a way."

Wang Ruohai said: "If it doesn't work, we should first strengthen the regulations and let officials act in accordance with the regulations."

Wang Xiaolie said: "This is also a way. There are two kinds of governance. One is to follow the regulations, follow the orders, and follow the instructions of the superiors. As long as the instructions of the superiors are not violated, it is not wrong. The other method is Officials decide what to do according to local conditions. Even if there is an order from a superior, officials can implement it or not according to the actual situation. The former method belongs to officials; the latter method belongs to officials. But in fact, officials How to distinguish between officials and officials? Officials sometimes have to do official affairs, and officials sometimes have to do official affairs. But it is not good to attribute everything to the official’s handling of the matter. Ideally, it should be due to the case Too few. When the subordinates feel confused, they will give instructions from their superiors; when the number of cases increases, the instructions will gradually decrease. But ideals are ideals, after all, they are not reality.”

Speaking of this, Wang Xiaolie picked up a few official documents and flipped through them casually.Said: "But now, the officials below are increasingly taking what I say as regulations. In the official documents from these states and counties, it is often the Xuan Fu who said it, or the Xuan Fu did it. How can this work? "

Chen Qiudao said: "This is what the officials did because they were trying to understand Xuanfu's meaning. After a long time, they will naturally understand."

Wang Xiaolie shook his head: "Consultant, don't lie to me! After a long time, they will only try to guess my mind and try to cater to me. After a long time, they will gradually understand, it's just a lie! The momentum must be stopped and not allowed to grow!"

Chen Qiudao lowered his head and did not speak again.

In fact, most of the time Chen Qiudao didn't know what Wang Xiaolie meant.It's just that after a long time, I gradually understood what Wang Xiaolie wanted to express.Although Chen Qiudao was asked to explain this meaning, he couldn't explain it clearly.

Why didn't Wang Xiaolie know that his subordinates were like this?Whether it was Chen Qiudao, Chen Yuyi, or Wang Ruohai, they couldn't fully understand what he meant.It's just that we've been together for a long time. Although I don't understand it, it's not bad, and I know what to do.

That's great, how can you find like-minded people all at once?We can only rely on our own strength to slowly transform society.In the process of transforming society, new talents are gradually grown up.Only these new talents can slowly approach Wang Xiaolie's thoughts.

That said, it doesn't mean that Wang Xiaolie is so smart that he can see through everything.Rather, Wang Xiaolie wants to transform the thinking of society, pull down the high destiny, and combine it with the people.Wang Xiaolie only knew that it was right to do so, but he didn't know what to do.What to do needs to be practiced by the people.

Wang Xiaolie said: "I have always said that officials should learn a little statistics, understand the principles of statistics, and learn to use statistics to manage society. But after such a long time, not many officials have really listened to it. The most fundamental issue of officials’ obedience is that they can really manage society.”

Having said that, Wang Xiaolie took a sip of tea and cleared his mind.

Putting down the water glass, Wang Xiao said: "Our world is a world of statistics. Or, at this stage, it is a world of statistics. Everything we encounter is based on statistics. Instead of saying, Due to the limited facts we have, we have to use statistical methods. Statistics are not methods, but describe the real world. Of course, this does not mean that only statistics can describe our world, but the world described by statistics , which is closer to the real world. Other methods, compared with statistics, can also describe the real world."

These words were very awkward, and Wang Xiaolie didn't know if the three of them could understand or not.

In fact, after saying this, Chen Qiudao and the three looked at each other, not knowing what Wang Xiaolie was talking about.

Civilizations always carry their imprints.This imprint is often overlooked by people, only occasionally looking back at the road they have traveled, only to find that the imprint has always been there and has never disappeared.This imprint that never disappears can only be broken through again and again, even if it is beyond recognition.

Only by understanding this can we understand why European civilization is so obsessed with the law of causality, and why it thinks everything is arranged.Because the formation of European civilization is inseparable from religion.Don't be obsessed with who is God and who is the Son of God, but understand that the core of it is that God created everything.When God reaches out and touches lightly, everything is already arranged.

So the main energy of Newton's life was to study theology. Einstein would say that God does not play dice, and quantum theory would not understand it.This is the imprint of European civilization, even science, also carries their unique imprint.

If industrialization happened first in China, and science was the first breakthrough by the Chinese, would the path of science be the same?of course not.The more similar it is at the beginning, the more different it is at the end, until it is completely different from the science we know.

We always think that this is how the world is known and should be known, and that the path of science is unique.Of course not.There are many ways to know the world, and it also has a variety of appearances, and even a different way of knowing will surprise people.

Many people forget that the Big Bang is just a hypothesis, and the theory of the universe is just a guess, a theory established under the existing conditions.In fact, human beings are not even clear about how the Milky Way works, how to gather such a huge number of stars, and how to maintain the current state of motion.

In fact, many human machines have used computers to achieve intelligence, and they are even fantasizing about the war between robots and humans.However, in the field of computers, it is not possible to create a truly random number, simulate a truly random process, and cannot truly simulate the real world.

The real world, however, conforms to the laws of statistics.Any precise calculation does not correspond to the real world.In other words, according to the way humans currently understand the world, only statistics are more consistent.

If Wang Xiaolie is asked to write a science fiction novel about the future, there are all kinds of possibilities.Demons, demons, ghosts, and monsters are not uncommon, and there may be immortals and heavenly courts, and ghosts of the underworld are even more common. The only thing that is impossible is spaceship colonization.It is precisely because this is the most likely to appear according to the current technical route, and it is precisely the most impossible in reality.

What does the future look like?God only knows.

This is only the case in the most scientific field of natural science, but how can it be an exception in the least scientific field of humanities?In fact, traveling back to ancient times, a lot of knowledge from previous lives is useful, but the most useless thing is precisely the historical direction you thought you knew.

Looking at the expressions of the three, Wang Xiao said: "Officials need to know how to look at the world from a statistical point of view, and also know how to manage the world with statistical knowledge. In our world, many things can be expressed as statistical laws. But these laws change with time. For example, human beings like to gamble, but how good is it? If this is represented as a curve, it may be high and steep if the management is strict, and it may be flat if the management is loose Is it possible to say that the amount of people who like to gamble is directly related to whether the regulation is strict? I’m afraid that’s not the case. If it is too loose, it may become tall and steep again. At the beginning, it is normal for everyone not to know how to do it, but you must know that there is such a thing. After a long time, rely on Everyone’s strength, slowly accumulate wisdom and experience.”

Wang Ruohai nodded and said, "We understand what Xuanfu means, so we will work hard."

Wang Xiaolie sighed: "This world is so weird. Sometimes some methods are simple and easy to implement, and they are effective. But after a certain period of time, they become ineffective. For example, now, we directly It is most effective to use orders to ask the officials below how to do things. But after a period of time, it will not work. When it is time to change the way, I found that the officials below have developed a habit and must ask the officials above It is only necessary to issue orders. We are just short of officials now, and political affairs are not so urgent, so we should not use this short-sighted approach.”

Chen Qiudao and the other three nodded.

Although the three people who Wang Xiaolie said earlier didn't understand, they could always understand what Wang Xiaolie meant.Over the years, many things have been done that way.I don't understand what's the matter?As long as what Wang Xiaolie says is consistent with the facts, it will be effective.

(Maybe I am the brain fog in the sequelae of the new crown. It has lasted for so many days and it has not healed. Until now, when it comes to code words, my brain is dizzy. The current update can only be like this. I hope everyone understands Right. I don’t know when this sequelae will be healed. In short, write as much as you can. You can subscribe or not according to your own mood, don’t force yourself.)
(End of this chapter)