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Chapter 966 Judgment
Somehow, what Shen Guanglin said in the internal meeting spread to the leaders.

I heard that the impact is quite big, so big that Shen Guanglin needs to come to explain.

Speaking of which, this leader is also an old friend of Shen Guanglin, and the two of them had contacted when they were in Shanghai.

At that time, Shen Guanglin proposed to build skyscrapers, and it was this leader who cut the ribbon.

Now, the leader has become a bigger leader. The good relationship Shen Guanglin maintained at the beginning, now we meet again, and it is quite cordial.

However, Shen Guanglin didn't expect that there were other think tanks beside the leader. They were think tanks in the economic field, and he was Shen Guanglin's colleague, also from Capital University, who seemed to be called Li Ning.

Moreover, even more coincidentally, this professor Li is actually a fellow of Shen Guanglin.

Ordinarily, with such a relationship, the two should get close to each other, but that Mr. Li is arrogant and looks down on Shen Guanglin's insights in the economic field at all.

Even seeing that the leader invited Shen Guanglin over, he was a little unhappy.

However, Shen Guanglin was the first to greet politely, "Hello, Professor Li!"

"Please call me Dean Li. People who don't understand economics will try to make less judgment in the future, so as not to affect the overall situation of the country's economic development." This person is indeed a bit unfriendly, and his words are a bit harsh.

Professor Li is the dean of the School of Economics of Capital University, while Shen Guanglin's position is just an ordinary professor. Speaking of which, Shen's administrative position is really not as high as others.

Literati, sometimes they love to argue about this.

Therefore, Shen Guanglin was not to be outdone, but said with a smile: "Please don't call me Professor Shen, please call me Committee Member Shen, now I am a member of the Faculty."

He had a subtext that only members of the academic department were qualified to be think tanks, just like in ancient times, only the nobles could enter the Imperial Academy.

However, Dean Li did not call Shen Guanglin as a committee member. Instead, he came forward and asked straightforwardly: "Now the whole world knows that Citigroup is dispatching troops, and the Gulf War is about to break out. At this time, Professor Shen even thinks that oil prices will fall. , what is the reason for this?"

Hearing this, the leader asked strangely: "Professor Shen, do you really think that oil prices will fall?"

Shen Guanglin didn't hide his words, nor did he change his point of view, but replied straightforwardly: "Yes, that's what I think."

In fact, this is a very simple judgment question.

There are two kinds of oil price trends, either rising or falling, and it is impossible to remain unchanged.

Even a poor economist can choose a direction at will and give a whole host of reasons for such judgments.

Of course, domestic economists, such as Mr. Li Ning, do not need to be responsible for their own judgments. At most, he has influenced economic policies and asked the country to pay some tuition fees.

The reality is like this. Li Ning and most economists believe that oil prices will rise, so the country bought a lot of oil futures in order to ease the economic pressure.

It is different in foreign countries, where many people are willing to bet on their own judgment.Some people even sent themselves to the rooftops because the futures they bought did not go well.

"Is there any basis? How did you come to the judgment? How much can it fall? Are you sure?" Professor Li issued a series of questions.

Shen Guanglin answered very easily: "The trend of oil prices is nothing more than ups and downs. You can choose one of the two answers. In terms of probability, I have judged it at least [-]% of the time. Do you really need me to come up with specific figures?"

"It makes sense." The leader smiled, "However, let's talk about your judgment."

Since the leader wanted to know, Shen Guanglin stopped joking. He lowered his head and thought for a while, and found several reasons for the drop in oil prices in his mind, and he felt that he was quite sufficient.

In fact, according to normal logic, when the war starts, the price of oil should continue to rise.

However, this matter is indeed abnormal, but if you look at it as a whole, the abnormality also has abnormal reasons.

In fact, in this war, many people did not see the situation correctly, and even the relevant state departments used state funds to sell futures based on wrong judgments.

And Shen Guanglin knew the answer, so he naturally didn't need to consider the reasons that others gave, because he could even bullshit himself better than this reason.

Therefore, in the expectation of the leader of the big glasses, Shen Guanglin pulled it apart like this:
"Although many people think that oil prices will rise, and even encourage the country to invest a lot of money to buy them up, but if the money is his own, I bet he will definitely lose money."

After Shen Guanglin finished speaking, Professor Li's face turned red.

He did encourage the country to invest, and he has already placed multiple orders, which means that Shen Guanglin's influence is large enough that even the leaders want to hear Shen Guanglin's reasons.

Since the leader wanted to hear, Shen Guanglin had no reason not to speak.

"However, have you ever thought about it? When this crisis happened, the room for rising oil prices had actually been pre-approved.

You know, the current oil price has doubled from 18 US dollars to 40 US dollars per barrel, and the demand for oil is fixed. The largest oil importer is Citigroup, and the second is Fuso. They all have good reserve.

Therefore, I judge that oil has no room to rise, at least, there is no room to rise in the short term. "

What Shen Guanglin said was very vague and not convincing at all.

Therefore, Professor Li was very excited: "Your reason is not sufficient, at least, in the early stage of the war, oil must have a big increase.

Moreover, as the war progresses, the price of oil will surely increase steadily.

If there is another unexpected event, for example, involving Saudi Arabia, the situation will be serious, and the price of oil may rise to any extent. "

As expected of Mr. Li, the one-two-three analysis is particularly thorough. Now Saudi Arabia is the second largest oil exporter after the Soviet Union. If Lao Sa really drags Saudi Arabia into the water, then the world oil market will definitely usher in a storm .

However, Shen Guanglin just smiled.

"Saudi Arabia can protect itself."

"Why?"

"Why, just rely on the Dongfeng Express we gave. Lao Sa can't bet on whether there are bullets in their guns."

Professor Li has a dissatisfied face. You are under the influence of information asymmetry, and you won't win by force.

However, even with the previous two, oil prices have risen steadily.

It's okay, if you want to convince this Mr. Li, you still have to come up with something else.

"Actually, to analyze the trend of oil prices, we still have to look at the global game of chess. Some people are short-sighted and cannot see the situation clearly. They can only make correct judgments."

Shen Guanglin's words were also insinuating, but he didn't give Professor Li a chance to refute, but continued on.

"In recent years, why has Maoziguo's economy been particularly difficult? And in the 70s, their economy was in full swing?"

"Why?" Li Ning didn't expect Shen Guanglin to ask such a question, so he could only say, "What does this have to do with oil prices?"

Immediately, he realized that something was wrong, it really had something to do with the price of oil.

You know, Maoziguo is the largest oil exporter. There was an oil crisis in the 70s, the international oil price was high, and Maoziguo was very rich.Now, the international oil price is so low that it is even lower than Maoziguo's oil extraction cost. Of course their economy is not good.

"You mean, the low oil price in recent years is to hit Soviet Russia?" The leader suddenly interjected, his eyes bright.

"Of course!" Shen Guanglin snapped his fingers

"What will happen in the end of the Gulf War. Let's not discuss it. However, oil prices will not rise. This is the overall situation. This is a major event that Citigroup has been planning for a long time. They will not allow oil to rise. This will Saved Soviet Russia.

Therefore, I guess that once the war starts, Citigroup and Western countries will release their oil reserves, and those oil refiners will certainly not, and they will not dare to drive up oil prices.

Therefore, oil prices will definitely fall in the future, and Maoziguo will definitely collapse. "

(End of this chapter)