Top of the Great Era

Chapter 1617 European Debt

The borrowing logic in the financial market is that the greater the risk, the higher the interest rate; the lower the risk, the lower the interest rate.

Now, the whole world knows that there is a problem with Greek bonds, and they are selling them frantically.While bond prices are depreciating rapidly, the interest rate promised by Greece is also gradually increasing. In this extremely critical period, the interest rate on government bonds has reached 18%.

And many analysts have also estimated that if the potential crisis of Greek sovereign debt is not dealt with as soon as possible, the annual interest rate of Greek bonds may reach 30%.

In the mainstream countries of the euro zone, the interest rate on government bonds is generally between 1% and 3%.

What is the concept of 30%?
In the past year, Pluto Capital managed by Zhou Buqi has brought rich returns to shareholders, and the annual income barely exceeded 30%.

In other words, if anyone is courageous and dares to risk his life, if he buys the newly issued government bonds of Greece at this time, the annual rate of return is almost the same as investing in Pluto capital.

However, at this juncture, it takes a lot of courage to buy Greece's national debt.

Now the investment ratio of Greek government bonds has been shorted to 1 euro to 8 cents, even if it is not a junk bond, it is almost the same.Credit defaults are possible at any time.

Greece was originally a fraudulent member of the Eurozone, and it was ruthlessly kicked out, which is both legal and reasonable, and there is no fault in the moral aspect.Many people in the EU have also publicly advocated that Greece should be abandoned.

This is important.

Because the EU has negotiated with the International Monetary Fund and will conduct negotiations at the beginning of next month to study whether to help Greece.And this requires a premise, this is not a proposal for the minority to obey the majority, what is needed is the collective consent of all committee members.As long as one country is unwilling, Greece is over.

So now that Greece wants to issue new government bonds, it can't issue them at all. Even if there are buyers, they are all taken up by banks and financial institutions in the country.

Zhen Yu couldn't understand what was going on here, it was too complicated.

There are too many games in it.

From the perspective of the EU, they definitely hope that Greece can hold on and not fall.But from the perspective of big capital and large institutions, of course, the worse Greece is, the higher the probability that they will make a lot of money from the chaos.

In other words, politicians want to maintain the stability of the economic market, and capitalists want to make money from the country.

Who wins and who loses?

Judging from the subprime mortgage crisis, politicians are no match for capitalists at all. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and other investment banks have become so messed up that they can't do anything about it.

Not in the US, but in Europe?

According to Zhen Yu's own understanding, in the capitalist society, the means of the capitalists are stronger. Soros put down half of Europe when he was in charge.

The momentum of the current European debt crisis is much worse than that of Soros back then.

In the game of the Greek crisis, it is likely to be a carnival feast for capital. The development achievements of Greece in the decades after World War II are likely to be looted by the hungry wolves of capital in a short period of time.

However, Senior Sister Zhenyu still believed in Boss Zhou's judgment even more.

Europe is becoming more and more left, and it is really different from the capital carnival in the United States.Then she jumped in and started buying Greek sovereign debt.

It's not worth it not to buy the newly issued government bonds with an interest rate of nearly 20%.Although the newly issued government bonds have high interest rates, the purchase cost is also high. The face value of 1 euro needs to be purchased with the principal of 1 euro.It is much cheaper to buy previously issued government bonds. For example, a batch of 07-year government bonds with an interest rate of 10% was released in 2.8. The face value of 1 euro only required a principal of 8 euro cents.

甄妤进场斥资2亿美元，买进了一批承诺在2017年兑付的10年期、15年期的国债，可真正的债券价值高达25亿美元。

In other words, if you hold this national debt and don’t sell it, and Greece has no credit default, by 2017, even if you don’t count the interest, the investment of 2 million US dollars can earn 25 billion US dollars!
Zhou Buqi was somewhat surprised when he heard what Senior Sister Zhen Yu said on the phone, "How much? 25 billion US dollars?"

"That's not even counting the interest. With the interest included, the net profit after tax is $25."

"Senior sister, I'm very worried!"

"Yes, I am also very worried. The force of short selling is too strong. Yesterday, some institution in Germany entered the market and managed to pull it up to more than 10 cents. Today it fell back to 7 cents. There is also pressure from public opinion. They May really abandon Greece."

"What are you talking about?" Zhou Buqi didn't know whether to laugh or cry, "I'm talking about earning too much, it's too eye-catching."

Zhen Yu was skeptical, "Will the EU save Greece?"

Zhou Buqi said: "I don't know too well, but the atmosphere of conspiracy is very serious. The biggest short-selling forces are American hedge funds. Maybe this is a contest between the European Union and Wall Street. Banks in Germany The field has endorsed Greece, isn't that a signal."

Zhen Yu said, "Headache."

Zhou Buqi smiled, "There is nothing to worry about. It's just such a small matter. The European Central Bank is much more reliable than the Federal Reserve."

Zhen Yu asked: "Then what should we do now? After buying it, wait? Wait for the bond to mature?"

"It's all right, you can figure it out." Zhou Buqi reiterated, "Anyway, as I said, our business is not for making money. The main purpose is to provide you with a chance to show off your skills, just like playing a game, how fun it is ? If possible, we still have to cooperate with the EU authorities and use the stability of the financial market to obtain some preferential policies.”

It's only 2010, and it's still early for the bonds to mature in 2017.

Few financial institutions can hold on for such a long time.

The current Greek crisis is just the beginning, the first stage.

In 2012, there was an even bigger crisis.Fortunately, the European Union stepped in to help again and gave another 1300 billion euros in bailout loans, allowing Greece to hold on.At that time, Greece’s sovereign bond investment ratio was 1 euro to 7 cents. After the European Central Bank firmly stated that it would help, the bond market soared all the way, with an increase of 763%, which once exceeded 50 cents.

Later, in 2015, Greece held a new round of elections, and radical nationalist forces came to power and broke up with the EU, saying that their loan conditions were too harsh, and the Greek people were suffering too much!I don't play anymore!
National debt?
Damn, no more!

It is conceivable that the Greek crisis has come again, and the national debt has become a junk bond again.

Sovereign credit was lost, and the entire country collapsed completely. They didn't cultivate land, couldn't buy food, and couldn't even eat. Their lives were comparable to those in the Soviet Union.After persisting for less than a month, the Greek authorities couldn't stand it anymore, turned their heads and knelt down to Germany and admitted their mistakes.

Germany's female prime minister, Merkel, is very powerful, so she promised to continue to help, but the conditions put forward are more stringent, and Greece can only agree.After a series of many changes, Greece finally found the right direction, endured hardships and stood hard work, reduced benefits, reduced expenses, and worked hard to repay the loan.The country is finally back on track.

That is to say, by selecting the timing of transactions in batches, even if you don’t go short, you can maximize your profits.

Buy Greek government bonds now, and sell them after the EU gives the first wave of bailout loans.Then the price of government bonds was suppressed again, and then bought back at the bottom, and then sold after the EU gave the second wave of bailout loans; and then bought again when the Greek credit bankruptcy government bonds became garbage in 2015, and then you can Waiting for payment.

After this wave of operations, the investment and cost of 2 million US dollars can become at least 2017 billion US dollars by 200.

Zhou Buqi didn't know much about the detailed process of the European debt crisis, and even if he knew everything, he wouldn't do it.

This kind of financial market operation can indeed make a lot of money, but it is too boring.

Just as Musk looks down on Buffett, this kind of capitalist who speculates without production does not have too high social value.

In contrast, it is more fulfilling to be in a serious industry. The success of the industry, especially the success of changing the world, is far more exciting than the digital growth in money.

This time, he wants to go further with football.

The highest goal is to find a direction for the development of Chinese football.

Guaranteed goal, leading the tactical style of European football in the new era.

Zhou Buqi stayed in Germany for two days and met Hoffenheim boss Hope, but he was not in a hurry to meet head coach Rangnick.If Mr. Hope can be dealt with, the matter will be more than half completed.

If Hope can't be dealt with, this matter will be more troublesome.

Because Rangnick is a German, he is the theoretical godfather of the fast-pressing and oppressive system of German football.

This kind of football is very entertaining.

Italy's defensive counterattack is too insignificant; England's long pass is even less aesthetic; Spain's pass and control system slowly makes people fall asleep.

Or Rangnick's set of football concepts is more in line with the global football promotion concept, and can play football games as exciting as rock music.

To achieve this goal, it is best to have a top German club to participate in the practice and become an important part of this ecosystem.

Mr. Hope hesitated.

Because once he joins the football system created by Zhou Buqi, he lacks the dominance over the club's decision-making power.

Zhou Buqi was not in a hurry, and invited him to Old Trafford to watch the second round match between Manchester United and Bayern in the middle of the week.Then I went to Wolfsburg to attend the signing ceremony of the strategic cooperation between Ziweiyun and SAP.

The scene was very lively.

After it was over, Kurian said with a smile: "I just received good news."

"What is it?"

"Netflix wants to cooperate with Ziweiyun to promote the expansion of overseas markets, the first is the UK."

Zhou Buqi nodded, "English-speaking countries are more convenient to develop. The biggest difficulty in the European market is the European continent, where there are too many countries and the environment is too complicated."

Kurian is very experienced, but that's not what he said. "There are a lot of Blu-ray high-definition videos on Netflix, which is troublesome."

"Ok?"

Zhou Buqi raised his eyebrows.

Kurian said: "The core areas of big cities like London and Manchester are naturally fine, but the broadband infrastructure in many suburbs and small towns is not good enough, and they will bear a high load due to the surge in remote work."

The transmission of network information is like a river.The infrastructure of rivers in suburbs or small towns is average and the rivers are narrow. If streaming video services such as mass information transmission are enabled, the rivers may be blocked, and other users will not be able to access the Internet.

"What do you mean?"

Zhou Buqi glanced at him.

Kurian said: "Maybe we can try to develop our own carrier business. Ziweiyun's market development is inseparable from the perfect expansion of infrastructure. Streaming media is even more so."

This is complicated, and Zhou Buqi showed a black line on his forehead, "Let Netflix reduce the video bit rate in small places first, and we will discuss this matter later."

(End of this chapter)