rebirth of change

Chen Kangjie's going to Hong Kong does not mean that he will stay in Hong Kong to command and deal with this blocking battle. This is not a matter of a day or two, it will last for a month. It is impossible for Chen Kangjie to stay in Hong Kong for a whole month.

On the one hand, he went to Hong Kong to experience the atmosphere in person, and more importantly, he wanted to unite a group of local entrepreneurs who were really at the forefront to gather more strength.

To command the base camp, Chen Kangjie still had to arrange for Zhucheng. His office in the New World Center was the command center.

In order to ensure smooth command and safety, on the basis of the original external communication method, Coy Company, Warwick Software Company, and personnel from the Intelligence Bureau of the General Staff under the brand of a network security company are working together to install ten computers for Chen Kangjie and set up links to high-level departments. communication lines.Through these computers, Chen Kangjie can observe changes in various financial markets in Hong Kong in real time, and the daily information bulletin of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will also be sent here, but they think it is sent to the capital.

After arriving in Hong Kong by special plane, Chen Kangjie went directly to Sun Jicai's old villa in Wuwu Village, Yuen Long, but no one came to pick him up.In order to raise 700 million Hong Kong dollars for charity, Sun Jicai sold the old house, but Ouyang Zhenhua secretly bought it at a low price.

Chen Kangjie will meet Han Geng, Ouyang Zhenhua and Di Qiuren from Japan here.This place is very remote in Hong Kong and will not attract attention.

At the gate of the villa yard, Ouyang Zhenhua led the two of them to wait there.

After Di Qiuren helped to open the car door from the outside, Chen Kangjie stepped down from the car. Before the formal conversation, there was inevitably some warm greetings.Chen Kangjie and Ouyang Zhenhua can often meet each other, but it is not so common with Han Geng and Di Qiuren.

As soon as he entered the door, Chen Kangjie saw an exquisite copper hot pot with a chimney placed on the round table in the hall, under which a charcoal fire was burning, tumbling and emitting fragrant heat, surrounded by rich side dishes and seasonings, including shrimp Slices, abalone, sheep's trotters, foie gras, frosted beef, oysters, geoduck, tender lamb slices and several wild vegetables, can be said to be a combination of Hong Kong-style hot pot and northern flavor.

"Brother Ouyang, are you making me miss that Sun Jicai? You even set up a hot pot waiting for me." Chen Kangjie sat down on the main seat with a big horse, salivating and looking at the delicious food on the table.

"That Sun Jicai doesn't know where he has gone now. The main reason is that the two of them haven't eaten hot pot for a long time, and they know that you will be hungry when you get off the plane, so they set up a table and chat while eating," Ouyang Zhenhua pointed Han Geng and Di Qiuren sat down while talking.

"Sit down, sit down, there's nothing serious, let's just eat first, I'm really hungry." Chen Kangjie stretched out his hand to press down on Han Geng and Di Qiuren, and then raised his chopsticks to take the lead.

Although Chen Kangjie said that there should be no restraint, but the seats are still in order. Ouyang Zhenhua sat on Chen Kangjie's left hand. Our traditional culture has always emphasized that the left hand is respected. Han Geng sat on his right hand. Only Di Qiuren was at the bottom. , face to face with Chen Kangjie.

For this meeting, Liu Deyi did not come with him. He went to Feiyang Entertainment to deal with matters. The other bodyguards were scattered outdoors, and only Xiong Ziqiang guarded the door.

It was the first time for Di Qiuren to meet Chen Kangjie on such an occasion. He came this time mainly to report the situation, and at the same time suggested that Chen Kangjie allow them to take some measures in the Japanese and South Korean markets.

Half an hour after Siri Hulu ate, Chen Kangjie started sweating on his forehead, the other three were better than Ouyang Zhenhua, and Han Geng's temples were drenched.Although there are only four people and the room is big enough, it’s still summer in Hong Kong. Even if everyone only wears shirts and opens the doors and windows to ventilate, it’s not very effective. The hot pot is still very powerful.

"Old Di, let me introduce you. How is the situation in Japan?" Chen Kangjie put down his chopsticks, wiped his forehead with a prepared wet towel, took a sip of tea, and asked Di Qiuren after feeling refreshed .

"Affected by the external environment, the Japanese market is also somewhat unstable. Recently, there have been fluctuations in varying degrees in the foreign exchange market and the stock market. In the past three years, due to the multiple impacts of our attack and other factors, in order to prevent deflation, the Bank of Japan has pursued Low interest rate policy. This is nothing less than a godsend for those who want to participate in the foreign exchange arbitrage trade. Since the end of 1994, the spread between the US federal funds rate and the Bank of Japan's target rate has been about 5%, and the flow to Southeast Asia at that time It is roughly estimated that the yen’s overseas loans are 2600 billion U.S. dollars. This means that the average interest rate difference income of the yen foreign exchange carry trade is about 130 billion U.S. dollars per year, which is 390 billion U.S. dollars in three years. In the same period, the yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar by nearly Half, such 2600 billion U.S. dollars of overseas loans have an average exchange gain of 1300 billion U.S. dollars. It is conservatively estimated that investors in yen carry trades in three years have obtained 1690 billion U.S. dollars of "pies that fell from the sky", Di Qiuren put down Chopsticks, touched his lips and said.

"You mean that the Asian financial crisis is closely related to Japan?" Chen Kangjie raised his eyebrows and asked calmly.

Chen Kangjie knew that the financial crisis would happen, and he also knew the process and result of the occurrence, but Chen Kangjie hadn't seriously studied the reason before.Now, after Di Qiuren, who has a doctoral background in economics, explained it, Chen Kangjie was not only interested, but also enlightened.

"Go on," Chen Kangjie encouraged Di Qiuren.

"The Japanese banking industry was in big trouble due to the huge amount of non-performing loans in the country. The problems started to show in March 1995. At that time, two credit unions in Tokyo exposed more than $3 billion in bad debts, most of which were loans to real estate companies. And these very fragile regional banks and credit unions are linked to the big "main banks" through the "main banking system". When small banks go bankrupt, big banks also start to suffer. The Japanese economy and the yen exchange rate fell to 10 The fall in 1996 had a huge negative impact on the entire banking system," Di Qiuren was encouraged and continued after glancing at Han Geng.

"Japanese real estate has been suppressed by us, and we are the culprit," Han Geng added.

Chen Kangjie pondered for a while, then slowly said, "50% of the capital of the Japanese banking industry is secondary capital, mainly including the unrealized value of the stock portfolio, so they have to bear two opposite pressures. On the one hand, due to the economic stock prices fell between 1996 and 1997; on the other hand, a weak yen boosted the yen value of dollar loans. Both factors weakened Japanese banks' reach 8% capital adequacy ratio. The only way to meet the capital adequacy ratio requirement is to reduce overseas loans.”

Although he has been with Chen Kangjie for a long time, he led them to make a lot of money many years ago.However, Di Qiuren still admires Chen Kangjie's ability to tell the symptoms immediately after mentioning a few points.He should be able to say that, because he is based in Japan, and his job is to study Japan's economy and financial markets, so as to provide opportunities that can be attacked.As for Chen Kangjie, it took a long time to go to Japan, so it was even more rare.

Staring at Chen Kangjie with reverence, Di Qiuren took over Chen Kangjie's words, "According to our assessment, if the yen is maintained at 140 to 1 against the US dollar and the stock market is maintained at 15000 points, then the Bank of Japan needs to reduce by 5.6 trillion yen in loans. This is equivalent to 11% of Japan's gdp. If you do not cut domestic loans, you can only cut foreign loans in a large amount. Although there is no detailed data, we speculate that since January last year, Japan has at least Southeast Asia has reduced loans by US$1000 billion, and it is the withdrawal of loans by Japanese banks that has created a sharp credit crunch in Southeast Asia."

"Okay, I understand. Your idea is that we should take over the 1000 billion US dollars that Japan raised from Southeast Asia, right?" Chen Kangjie said sharply.

"Yes, that's what it means. If we can do something in Japan, Japan will also withdraw a large number of funds from Southeast Asia. They can at least withdraw a total of 2500 billion funds from Southeast Asia. This is big fish eating small fish, small fish eat In the era of Xiami, if Japan speeds up its divestment, Southeast Asian countries will suffer even worse," Di Qiuren said firmly.

Chen Kangjie pondered again. Perhaps what Di Qiuren saw was the economic part, but Chen Kangjie had to consider the political content.

The sweeping financial crisis in Southeast Asia will definitely be rescued by the international community, otherwise it will spread. At least the International Monetary Fund will definitely perform.Against this background, if Japan goes the other way and speeds up its divestment, it will definitely turn against Southeast Asian countries politically, which is tantamount to taking advantage of the danger.

This kind of political phenomenon is what Chen Kangjie is happy to see. If China enters in at the right time and provides some help to those countries, it will not only stabilize the surrounding area, strengthen good-neighborly and friendly relations, but also obtain a good market and resource base. In the long run , which will be extremely beneficial to the future settlement of territorial disputes in the South China Sea.