rebirth of change

Chen Kangjie, who has been concerned about the development of the situation in the capital, soon received the news that Clinton's personal representative put forward an unswerving condition, that is, the Chinese side must promise not to have a garrison in Bandaqi within 20 years.

Everyone knows that the Chinese side spares no effort to help Bandaqi because of its important strategic geographical location, not entirely from an economic point of view, although we have repeatedly reiterated that we will not have military bases or garrisons abroad , we have done the same for decades.

However, outsiders, especially the Americans who will be our main competitors in the future, will not optimistically believe that our policy can be maintained forever.

The thinking and culture of Americans are very different from ours. One of the biggest differences is that Americans basically think about problems and do things from the perspective of practical needs, while we often show some idealism from time to time , Sometimes the so-called justice and dogma are taken seriously.

Because of this, Americans are skeptical about the propositions and concepts we wholeheartedly promote and swear by. For example, we don’t know how many times we have said that we will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. This proposition has been said by every generation of leaders. Moreover, Chen Kangjie I believe it is definitely not an excuse, but even so, the Americans are not fully convinced. In the competition or struggle against us, they have always maintained their vigilance and prepared for the worst.

Although subjectively reluctant, we also have to admit that the actions of the Americans are correct from the perspective of their national interests. A country is always considering its own safety and interests. Only such a country can last for a long time. We The ancients in China have long had such warning words, such as "If you forget the battle, you will be in danger", "Be born in sorrow and die in peace" and so on.

From an objective point of view, there is a certain reason why Americans do not trust us. This does not mean that we are a country of tigers and wolves, or a warlike country, but that our idealism and naivety are determined by objective conditions. .

Since modern times, we have been poor and weak, and almost all aspects of national development have lagged behind those of world powers, such as economy, culture, military, science and technology, and even law and education.

Since we are behind, we don’t have the strength to speak boldly. Since our strength is weak, we are on the defensive side in foreign exchanges, especially in the game with a big country like the United States, because we have no way to attack. Don’t think that The few wars we fought after the founding of the People's Republic of China were our victories. In fact, it was not the case. At best, we did not suffer too much from the defense. The peninsula war was like this. A pattern of 62 parallels, the Americans still maintain a strong military presence on the peninsula, as did the self-defense counterattack in 9. They won the battle, but still lost [-] square kilometers of land. The self-defense counterattack against Jiaozhi , happened right at our doorstep, we didn't lose, but we didn't get any obvious benefits.

This is all determined by the current national strength and international geopolitical relations.

Since we can’t show hard power, let’s start from the practical aspect. If the practical work is done well, on the one hand, it can win us a good reputation of upholding justice and respecting fairness, and gain some friends from the third world. , Of course, it is also the need to keep a low profile. In a word, if you are not strong enough, you should make less trouble. It is best not to cause trouble as much as possible. If you can bear it, you can bear it. It’s no big deal if you hit the left cheek and the right cheek. Of course, these are still with us for thousands of years. It is related to the idea of ​​"rituals" that we believe in. It seems that everything must have "rituals", otherwise it is immoral and evil.

Although this kind of inertia is maintained for a long time, we will really become strong and timid, and suffer from hypochondrosis. Basically, we will "strongly protest" and "seriously protest" anything that is harmful to the interests of the country. Beyond that, it's almost hard to see any further steps.

But even so, Americans are always urging us and warning us that the way of doing things and values ​​we followed in the past and now will not remain unchanged.

When our national power has changed from quantitative to qualitative, when our strength has developed enough to exert greater influence on the outside world, we will no longer be obedient, and we will no longer dogmatically abide by the way of a gentleman. To use a sociological word In other words, the environment will affect people's character and way of doing things. Even if we are passive, we will change.

American people’s cautiousness and sense of crisis exist objectively, and Chen Kangjie does not believe that when we become a real world power, we will just protest in the struggle for island sovereignty with neighboring small countries, and we will definitely make more severe voices , and even adopt tougher measures, as it always says, strength determines everything.

Although we do not have the appearance and further plans of building military bases and stationing troops overseas, this does not mean that we will always follow that principle in the future. When our overseas interests and national interests need to be protected, when we need to When it comes to maintaining national security and peace on a larger scale, stationing troops abroad may become the most realistic consideration. Perhaps those in power at the moment have not considered this aspect, and perhaps they have not thought of it. However, from the worst point of view , Americans have considered for us.

Through his own thinking and observation, Chen Kangjie understood why the personal representative of kld proposed such a prerequisite.

This condition seems a little arrogant, a little arrogant, according to the usual logic, we should refute such a condition sternly and argue hard, and the initiative of the card is still in our hands, but sometimes things are so helpless, no matter what Whether it is in personal affairs or in the country's major policies, there will always be some unavoidable things. What's more, international exchanges often end in mutual compromise. A real negotiation is an art performance of compromise. It just depends on how you treat me. .

Such a condition of kld, after all, must be agreed to him, otherwise, there is no way to overthrow him.

First, kld’s conditions are largely based on his own national interests. As long as China does not have a military presence in Bandaqi, it will only maintain friendly exchanges and will not destroy the regional presence of the United States. It is not good for its security structure. It will cause weakening. Anyway, China has very close relations with many countries. As long as they are not allies, it is no big deal to have one more place with good relations.

Second, kld himself needs an excuse to justify himself and ease the pressure on Congress, and China will not have a military base in Bandazi within 20 years, or that there will not be too close a military relationship is his excuse, there is no such excuse That is, even though he acquiesced, if the raw rice is cooked, it is very likely that it will be overthrown by Congress.

Third, from an economic and military perspective, as long as China does not have a military base in Bandaqi, the Strait of Malacca is still a normal golden waterway, or a golden waterway controlled by the United States to a certain extent, as long as China is not in Bandaqi. The Daqi garrison, the Diego Garcia military base is safe and will not be threatened. This is the only military base of the United States in the Indian Ocean. The US strategic air force and navy stationed here can attack all countries in Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf. "Potential conflict hotspot areas" have achieved strike coverage, so as long as the security of the Diego Garcia US military base is guaranteed, the military's opposition will not be so strong.

Fourth, why the time is 20 years instead of 30 or [-] years? This is why KLD assesses the situation from the perspective of reality and its own security.

20 years is almost the time of a generation. From kld's personal point of view, 20 years later, he will be 74 years old, and he has basically faded out of the political arena. It is still unknown, and from the perspective of the political changes in the United States, 20 years later, the United States will experience at least four general elections, and at least three presidents. Large personal influences and opinions are basically dealt with coldly. That kind of turning over old accounts and revealing old ones rarely occurs in the history of the United States. Moreover, they do not have the culture and tradition of political persecution. Therefore, 20 years later, even if the Chinese China has a military base in Banda Qi, and he kld himself is safe.

The reason why the time is not ten years is because ten years is not a safe time for him. At that time, it is easy to be pulled out as a target. The reason why it is not 30 years is because China will not agree.

According to the predictions of many economists, as long as China's economy maintains its current momentum, it will be able to surpass the United States in 2020 at the earliest and 2030 at the latest.

As the economy grows stronger, other needs that were previously invisible will emerge, and the soft needs in the past will become rigid demands. Self-security and the expansion of the sphere of influence are typical manifestations.

No one would expect that China will make the necessary deployments only after its national power surpasses that of the United States. Therefore, in 30 years, he can imagine that China will not agree, and the 20-year imposition is just right. When you are safe, and the Chinese side just needs it, it can be regarded as killing two birds with one stone.

Kld's request may have already grasped the pulse of the Chinese side's agreement. Anyway, he just wants to take a step back. For the Chinese side, having such a place is much better than not having such a place. At least it will not take more than ten or twenty years. Hugging the buddha's feet for the time being, you can use the 20 years to manage it well. For Mi Fang, the territory is not cut out from his own hands, and there is no serious loss to his own interests in the short term. It is no big deal.

Just as Chen Kangjie thought, after two days and three confrontations, the Chinese side agreed to this condition in exchange for the support of kld. Years later, it became an important node of the New Maritime Silk Road.