rebirth of change

Chapter 420 VII Contradictory Argument

"As for what is coal chemical industry, in short, it refers to the process of using coal as raw material and converting coal into gas, 'liquid' and solid fuels and chemicals through chemical processing. It mainly includes coal gasification, 'liquid' Chemical, dry distillation, as well as tar processing and calcium carbide acetylene chemical industry, etc., I do not understand the specific technical issues, you can ask experts for help, I think, either do not do it, do it in a forward-looking way, according to 1984 Coal accounts for about 74% of the world's proven recoverable fossil fuel reserves in 12, while oil accounts for about 10% and natural gas about [-]%. From the perspective of resources, coal will be a potential main chemical raw material. What fields will coal chemical industry be in in the future? , and the speed at which it develops will depend on the technological progress of the coal chemical industry itself and the changes in oil supply and demand and price. In the near future, the coke used in metallurgical industries such as iron and steel will still rely on the coking of coal, while coking chemicals such as naphthalene Polycyclic compounds such as anthracene and anthracene are still organic chemical raw materials that are difficult to replace in petrochemical industry; coal gasification will still be a major aspect of coal chemical industry with the development and application of new gasification technology; coal gasification into synthesis gas , and then develop and research a series of organic chemical products through carbon-chemical synthesis, which is less difficult and can make progress in recent years; producing 'liquid' fuel from coal, whether it is low-temperature dry distillation, direct 'liquefaction' or indirect 'Liquification' has to depend on the evaluation of technology and economy", Chen Kangjie talked about what he knew, and he had no reservations about Li Chaoren.

Chen Kangjie has mentioned coal chemical industry to others before, but this is the first time he has discussed this issue with others alone.

After hearing a long passage from Chen Kangjie, Li Chaoren's first thought was why there are so many things in Chen Kangjie's little head?Ouyang Zhenhua was no longer surprised. Anyway, since he met Chen Kangjie, he had received enough surprises. He was used to it and became numb. In his habitual logic, Chen Kangjie should understand everything.

"According to what you say, isn't coal chemical industry likely to replace petrochemical industry?" Li Chaoren's heart ignited a fire.

"It's not possible in the short term, at least not in 30 to [-] years." Chen Kangjie's firm answer immediately extinguished more than half of Li Chaoren's fire.

"Why?" Ouyang Zhenhua, who was listening quietly, also became interested.

"It's very simple. The current oil price is very low, and the petrochemical technology is now very mature, and its requirements are lower than those of coal chemical industry." Chen Kangjie glanced at Ouyang Zhenhua and said with a wry smile.

Why did Chen Kangjie smile bitterly? He was worried that Li Chaoren would be frightened by his two words, but he had to tell the truth.

"Isn't it worthwhile to do coal chemical industry in the short term?" Ouyang Zhenhua's question was like adding tar to the fire, but what he asked was indeed the key point.

"Relatively speaking, the main key here is technology. Although coal chemical industry has been widely used and formed a system in the second half of the 18th century and the 19th century, coke formed by coking is the earliest coal chemical product. Afterwards, many organic chemicals that used agricultural and forestry products as raw materials were mostly produced with coal as raw materials, and coal chemical industry became an important part of the chemical industry. After the Second World War, petrochemical industry developed rapidly, and the production of many chemicals started from The shift from using coal as raw material to oil and natural gas has weakened the position of coal chemical industry in the chemical industry, so the technology of coal chemical industry is not as mature as that of petrochemical industry.” He paused here, and he found that Sir Li heard He must be very serious, listening and thinking at the same time.

Chen Kangjie picked up the teacup and took a sip to moisten his throat, and continued: "But we need to see the prospect of coal chemical industry. One thing I can make a judgment is that the price of oil will rise sharply in the next ten years, even 'forced' The sky-high price of nearly [-] US dollars per barrel, by that time, if anyone can master a complete set of advanced coal chemical technology and have rich raw coal resources, they will be able to march towards a new success."

What Chen Kangjie said later was considered encouraging and motivating, that is, he drew a big cake. Those who believe in it will really have cakes to eat at that time, and those who don't believe it will naturally only eat dirt.

"Significant rise? 'Closing' to nearly 100 US dollars? The current Brent crude oil has no US dollars. Is there such a big increase?" It was the first time for Li Chaoren to hear Chen Kangjie make a prediction on specific market conditions. I find it incredible, but I still want to hear Chen Kangjie's explanation. If Chen Kangjie says he guessed it, it is a child's nonsense.

On the contrary, Ouyang Zhenhua, he no longer doubted Chen Kangjie's economic forecast, and what he was thinking in his mind was how to get the most benefit from this huge price increase.

"Sir Li, do you have confidence in our country's economic development?" Chen Kangjie did not answer Sir Li's question directly, but used a roundabout strategy to ask him back. Chen Kangjie planned to use Sir Li's answer to answer his question.

"Of course, of course I have confidence. I believe it will continue to grow rapidly, otherwise I will not increase investment in the Mainland," Li Chaoren replied firmly.

Li Chaoren's answer was completely expected by Chen Kangjie, because this is the actual answer.Chen Kangjie remembers that before 97, many rich people in Hong Kong sold their real estate and businesses one after another, and immigrated to Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries. They were worried about the "communist" policy in the mainland. In the end, after Hong Kong’s smooth reunification, the same thing has not changed, the economy has also developed at the same time as it should, and housing prices have rebounded. Those Hong Kong people who sold their properties earlier found that it is not so easy to mess with when they go abroad. Without a good relationship in Hong Kong, it was very difficult to develop, and many people came back one after another. The return of these people pushed the housing price to a new height. Sir Li made a lot of money from it, and established a solid foundation. His status as the richest man in Chinese.

"Since you have confidence in our country's economic development, it will be easy. At present, we seem to be a net oil exporter. In fact, our country's oil resources are not rich. The reason for this is that our economic aggregate is not large enough. After a few years, with the development of our economy and the deepening of industrialization, we will change from a net exporter of oil to an importer, and the quantity is not small. The increase of automobiles and the improvement of people's consumption level all require a large amount of oil. Petrochemical products. This is still from a domestic point of view. If you look at it from a global perspective, the current peaceful environment will not only allow the economies of Western developed countries to grow to a certain extent, but also South Asia, South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, West Asia and many other countries. The economies of the three world countries will also usher in a longer period of development. You should know that India has started a reform and opening up policy similar to ours this year. All of this will greatly increase the demand for oil and push up oil prices There is another factor. After the outbreak of the Gulf War last year, OPEC will become more closely united. For their own interests and more sustainable development, they will not increase oil production without limit. So far, we have not seen When these countries have plans to increase oil production on a large scale, as long as there is a contradiction between supply and demand, the price will inevitably soar.” Chen Kangjie analyzed the possibility of a sharp rise in oil prices from various domestic and foreign factors.

Li Chaoren looked at Chen Kangjie in a daze, it was really unbelievable, obviously Chen Kangjie's rhetorical analysis had convinced him that all this would be revealed in front of him soon.

"Then what do you think of polar bears? Will the United States and other Western countries allow polar bears to restore the glory of the former Soviet Union through the increase in oil wealth?" But then he thought of another interesting question.

As soon as Li Chaoren asked this interesting question, Chen Kangjie immediately knew where the core was, and Ouyang Zhenhua was half a beat behind, thinking for half a minute before grasping the essence of the question. Anyway, Jiang is still old and spicy a little.

"Yes, there are depressing factors why the price of oil was not high during the Soviet period. We know that the world's two largest oil markets are in the United Kingdom and the United States. In other words, oil prices are controlled by them to a certain extent. The former Soviet Union was a resource-rich country with very rich oil reserves. In order to prevent the Soviet Union from using this wealth to strengthen its national power, the West naturally suppressed oil prices. This was also for their own sake. Now the Western powers represented by the United States are undergoing economic transformation , the manufacturing industry will be replaced by a new economy that requires less energy. Since the third and fourth Middle East wars, large oil companies in Western countries have made every effort to deploy in the world's major oil producing areas, Shell, Mobil, Exxon, etc. After 30 to [-] years, the layout of giants has almost been completed, which is another important reason why oil prices will rise. On the surface, it seems that rising oil prices can make polar bears a lot of wealth. In fact, we should also see The oil production facilities of polar bears are very backward, which limits their production capacity. In fact, due to geopolitical reasons, it is difficult to diversify their oil exports. Besides, what the West needs is a weak Russia, not A chaotic Russia is needed, so it is necessary to ensure that he has a certain stable source of income. If we look at the problem from a longer-term perspective, we should also see that an appropriate increase in oil prices is not necessarily a good thing for polar bears ", originally to discuss coal, but Chen Kangjie spent a lot of experience to explain the competing products of coal.

"Jie Shao, I don't understand. Why is the price increase not necessarily a good thing for Russia?" Ouyang Zhenhua was too involved in listening, so even the title was brought out naturally.

On the question Ouyang Zhenhua asked, Li Chaoren actually didn't quite understand it. It stands to reason that this should be a good thing. It can increase wealth quickly, so how can it not be good if it is put on Russia?It is contrary to common sense.

Chen Kangjie was not in a hurry to answer this question. After talking so much, he was still a little dry. Chen Kangjie smiled and filled his teacup with a cup of warm tea.