As a mage, I just want to pursue the truth

Chapter 257 Looking at the past and future of the global supply chain from the perspective of life extension medicine

"The concept of economic globalization can be traced back to the 70s, in which Western countries and East Asian countries jointly created the concept of economic globalization by opening up financial markets and relaxing capital controls.

Economic globalization has brought about the restructuring of global supply chains.

From the 70s to the beginning of this century, the supply chains of western developed countries were mainly shifted in places like Neon and Korea in East Asia, and the four tigers in Asia.

Multinational companies achieve the goal of maximizing efficiency and profit by monitoring and coordinating factories all over the world and breaking through geographical restrictions through commercial operations.

During this period, the economy and culture were unprecedentedly active, and it also brought unprecedented prosperity to the countries of Asia Minor.

As Neon ushered in the lost 30 years, the economy of the four Asian tigers was almost completely stagnated. The root cause of all this is not only the Asian financial crisis.

It is because of the new behemoth - Huaguo, which is about to enter the arena.Since Huaguo joined the WTO in 2001, this country with a large number of basic educated and low-cost labor force is rapidly attracting the transfer of global manufacturing.

So much so that since 2012, although Hua Guo has not participated in the annual G7 meeting, the main agenda involved is inseparable from the issues made by Hua Guo.

Huaguo not only has massive human resources, but also has increasingly complete infrastructure and cheap water and electricity necessary for manufacturing.

Yes, compared with other developing countries, the hydropower provided by Huaguo is cheap and stable.

At the same time, Huaguo's advantage lies not only in the above-mentioned advantages of the material world, but also in its unprecedented mobilization ability, and the will of the upper class is extremely strong.

Once a high-level executive in Huaguo expressed regret at a symposium that Huaguo could not produce ballpoint pens. A year later, a provincial steel company completed the independent research and development of ballpoint pens.

The strong mobilization ability brings that Huaguo is not willing to be only at the bottom of the manufacturing industry, and their determination and will to climb up are extremely strong.

With the passage of time, the upward movement of Huaguo's industrial chain has caused Western developed countries to change from ridicule to suspicion, to wait and see, and to fear in 18.

They cannot accept a country of Hua occupying the upper reaches of the industrial chain. Once this becomes a reality, one of American's three legs will be cut off.

The so-called three advantages that American relies on to harvest the world are high-end manufacturing, financial industry and military capabilities.

Among them, military capabilities and high-end manufacturing complement each other.In a sense, Huaguo has gradually eroded the mid-end manufacturing market.

What followed was the transfer of manufacturing. Western countries began to transfer their industries to less developed third world countries starting in 18 or even earlier in 2015.

Among them, American has transferred its production capacity to surrounding Mexico and Brazil, Neon and Korea have transferred their production capacity to Southeast Asian countries and India, and Western Europe has chosen Eastern Europe and Turkey.

The climax of this supply chain shift is the period from 2022 to 2024.

The problem facing Huaguo is not just the transfer of supply chains.

Because the transfer of the supply chain is not entirely a bad thing to some extent, Huaguo can eat most of the mid-end supply chain products such as motors, infrastructure, and machine tools involved in the transfer process of the supply chain. .

For Huaguo, what needs to be considered is how to continue to maintain a huge production capacity after the reorganization and transfer of the supply chain.

At the same time, Huaguo's supply-side and environmental protection strategy since 2015 has cleared up a large number of small and medium-sized mining companies, forming a new coal, steel and non-ferrous industry chain.

After this stage is completed, Huaguo has launched a national strategy of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, which is matched with a new energy industry chain.

The new energy industry chain includes not only new energy vehicles, but also upstream industries such as wind energy and solar energy.

This turn of the overall energy strategy has brought about the rapid development of new energy-related companies in recent years.

But the problem is that electric vehicles in the middle and lower reaches cooperate with the Internet of Things and 5G communication systems, and are facing the constraints of high-end chips.

Although automotive chips do not require a process below 14 nanometers, chips involve not only manufacturing processes, but also silicon wafer materials, packaging, design software, and photoresists.

The photoresist market with an annual revenue of only 20 billion yuan has spawned a company with a market value of up to 5000 billion RMB, a pure market value bubble, and even the photoresist of this company has only been recognized by domestic manufacturers in the past two years.

While Huaguo created bubbles in the process of semiconductor substitution, it also brought hope.

However, I was originally pessimistic about whether we could successfully break through the chip blockade before Western developed countries complete the industrial chain restructuring.

Because Huaguo's capital speculation is greater than investment, a capital market without a system to protect the rights and interests of small and medium shareholders cannot achieve real value investment, let alone grow together with great companies.

Under such pessimistic expectations, once the high-tech replacement fails, and the supply chain is reorganized by Europe, America and South Asia, Huaguo will undoubtedly face a middle-income trap.

By the way, after American and Neon signed the Plaza Agreement in 1985, they not only adopted financial means, but also launched a semiconductor trade war from 1987 to 1991.

The measures adopted include forcing Neon to sell 20.00% of the market share to American Enterprises, forcing three of the five electronics giants in Neon to give up the storage industry, and supporting Samsung in Korea.

In the following four years, the telecommunications war was carried out, which caused the long-term depression of Neon's stock market and real estate. American Capital took the opportunity to buy the bottom and controlled 30.00% of Neon's financial industry and 20.00% of its industrial capital.

At the end of the 90s, American Capital caused Neon Bank’s bad debts of more than one trillion yuan, making Neon completely lose its development opportunities in the semiconductor and communication industries.

Originally, I observed that Western countries tried to use similar means to develop in Huaguo.

Over the past 20 years, manufacturing has been transferred to Huaguo on a large scale. Huaguo has established a currency strategy of anchoring the rice dollar and purchasing rice bonds, creating a currency environment conducive to foreign trade.

What follows is the loss of monetary autonomy, which is a transfer of rights.

At the same time, American forced RMB to appreciate. Through equity investment and creating a convenient listing environment, Huaguo was forced to open up the Internet industry, and a large number of Internet companies listed on American.

Under the persecution of the other party, Huaguo's financial industry also opened the door to a large extent. Until 2010, Wall Street and Silicon Valley had the confidence to control Huaguo's industry.

Everything has changed since 2010. American's Internet giants have been kept out of the country, and the opening of the financial industry has always been superficial.

Even American's retail business could not gain a foothold in China.

American's turnaround started in 2010, not 2016 as some people believed.

Beginning in 2010, American began to mobilize the public opinion machine and completed the popularization of the Huaguo threat theory.Similar to the public opinion preparation work before harvesting neon:
Neon has plundered American's economy and industries, Neon is buying American, Neon's electronics industry, etc. are threatening American's security.

Then there is the comprehensive increase in tariffs in 2018. The purpose behind the increase in tariffs is to force the restructuring of the industrial chain.

This process is painful, and it belongs to the seven wounds. Huaguo is facing the stripping of the supply chain, and what American and other developed countries need to face is inflation, which is uncontrollable.

It is precisely this that Vietnam and Ah San have seen, and they have moved closer to American in these years.

But American's ultimate goal is not the ultimate confrontation, but to control the economy of Huaguo just like what it did to Neon back then.

The ultimate goal is to acquire high-quality enterprises in Huaguo at a low price.

But what I didn't expect was the unexpected event in 2020, which disrupted their arrangements. The water released that year reached several trillion yuan, and the assets and liabilities rapidly expanded from 4 trillion to 7 trillion yuan.

American’s response back then was to allow mining giants to jointly export high-priced iron ore to China, and capital pushed up the iron ore index in the speculative market.

Iron ore trade must sign a contract according to the transaction index.Global shipping began to run, and prices skyrocketed, while oil-producing countries united to raise prices.

Back then, in order to save the economy, Huaguo had to release water on a large scale for infrastructure construction. The release of social financing in the first half of the year stimulated a sharp rise in real estate.

It was also during the trade negotiations that year that China liberalized the financial sector, and overseas capital began to enter in large quantities.

The wave of foreign capital entering China began in 2020.

Let me recap the news of the year:

BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, was approved last month to form a partnership with a state-owned bank in Huaguo.

Vanguard Group, an asset management company, said it would move its regional headquarters to Shenhai.

Citibank Group became the first American Bank to obtain a fund custody license in China.

**** plans to acquire Huaguo Partners, which is mainly responsible for the entire equity of Huaguo Fund business.

Therefore, real estate, the stock market, and the RMB exchange rate soared that year.A series of chip-related electronics industries such as Huawei and ZTE have been suppressed by American, and exports to China such as TSMC and Samsung have soared.

At that time, Huaguo was facing a situation similar to that of Neon: the RMB exchange rate rose rapidly, and the prices of imported crude oil, iron ore chips, etc. soared.

Of course, Huaguo responded quickly, and stopped releasing water in the second half of the year. Banks have unprecedentedly strict anti-money laundering, and large-scale investment in high-tech and 5G.

Seeing that it was impossible to force Huaguo to fully open the market for a while, American chose to sell assets and bid up commodities.

This background is the economic trend in 2021.

American's calculation was very good, detonating the Huaguo capital market, selling assets while shorting the Huaguo index, and plundering the Huaguo banking system.

Wait for the financial and electronics industries to fall to the bottom, and then buy bottoms.

But at this time, several accidents occurred. The arrival of magic made the Blue Star countries see a new direction of technological development.

Magic represents a brand-new technological system and a new direction of technological development, rather than a house-playing game in folk fantasy novels.

Whether it is the magic brain, magic coin or soul, they are all manifestations of the scientific system in different civilizations.Especially the magic coin is an extremely ingenious design.

With the existence of a new scientific system, Western countries have seen the hope of overtaking in curves, and it is not only semiconductors that are high-tech.

I'm sure the source of the bio-storage technology that Huaguo and Russia took the lead in was Merlin.

The brand-new biotechnology system allows Western developed countries except American to no longer have to look at American's face and continue to play with him.

On a brand new track, all being fair, American's advantage is negligible.

Not only the countries of the Europa League, but even Neon and Korea are beginning to move around.

American can no longer command the heroes of the world as it did before 2022, and Huaguo has attracted a rare strategic respite.

At the same time, on the new track, relying on the scientific and technological talents cultivated in the past 20 years, Huaguo also has sufficient confidence to compete with American.

Let's put it this way, American cannot achieve the harvest of Huaguo by relying on the strength of his family. He just takes the lead and can let other younger brothers see the opportunity to follow the soup. Only then can he succeed.

Now the younger brothers all have their own plans, the capital needs to be invested in the magic system, and no one will play with him.

To achieve leadership in the field of combining magic and technology in the future is the most important task for mainstream players in the world.

Huaguo is taking the lead in the next generation of Internet revolution.

I am sure that brain-computer connection VR will definitely become the platform of the next generation Internet.

The reason why American didn't contain it was because he knew that containment couldn't be achieved by them alone.

They must have also communicated with the Europa League, and the other party rejected American's desire to ban the brain-computer connection VR.

The significance of the new generation of brain-computer connection VR lies not only in itself, but also in the Huaguo high-tech industrial chain it cultivates.

The topic turns back to magic. Compared with the five years from 2016 to 2021, the development of science and technology in the past few years seems to have pressed the accelerator button.

Technologies such as autonomous driving, unmanned factories, and brain-computer connections have exploded.

Originally, I have always wondered what is the real reason behind the explosive development of these technologies.

After seeing the life-extending potion, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Merlin as well.

The essence of life-prolonging medicine is a breakthrough in biology, not only a breakthrough in technology, but also a breakthrough in concept.

The biological community will have a clear definition of life extension.

The technology spillover caused by Merlin and the help of magic to research and development will lead to the accelerated development of technology.

What followed was the return of the industrial chain. According to the data, due to the initial results of the combination of artificial intelligence and industrial robots, the industrial chains of developed countries began to gradually return to their home countries.

Including Huaguo enterprises are also relocating their manufacturing plants back.

The low-end manufacturing industry is returning, and the trend of deglobalization is beginning.

The low-end industrial chain is returning, and the mid-to-high-end industrial chain is also returning.It is very difficult for third world countries to have the opportunity to repeat the 20 years of China's experience.

The development of technology will not give them so much time.

In the foreseeable future, the third world countries will become resource-providing countries and rely on tourism and service industries.

The emergence of magic coin has led to the small countries not even having the chance to be on the poker table in the magic era.

Huaguo's lead in the field of brain-computer connection VR is still very weak, and many components still rely heavily on developed countries.

Facing the reorganization and return of the global supply chain, Huaguo needs to strike a certain balance between total factor cost, exchange rate and debt system. "

The above is the full content of an article written by an economic observer after the release of the life-prolonging drug news, titled:

"Looking at the past and future of the global supply chain from the perspective of life-prolonging pharmaceuticals".

　I struggled to write this chapter, and at the same time, I had to grasp the scale of many contents in it, neither too shallow nor too deep.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)