As a mage, I just want to pursue the truth

The price of a commodity is not equal to its real value.

In the past, only commodities that met the basic needs of human beings had corresponding value. Because of the increase in productivity, more and more needs other than basic needs were discovered.

The prices and values ​​of commodities are gradually distorted.

Some originally valuable commodities will lose their value.

From the demand side to the supply side will face a complete restructuring.

In such a phenomenon, under the action of a strong external force, the original balance will be broken in an instant.

"American's technology stocks plummeted, [-]% will bring down the entire American stock market, which will affect the global stock market.

We are not immune either.

Because we and American are highly similar in industry, the only difference lies in the service targets of Internet companies and the technological content of semiconductor companies.

Although compared with American, our residents' wealth is more concentrated in real estate, but like social security funds and medical insurance funds, a large number of them are also concentrated in the stock market. "

Huaguo's social security fund has entered the big A a long time ago. The social security fund was established in 2000 and entered the Huaguo stock market in 2016.

Over the past 20 years, the average annualized rate of return of the multi-trillion social security fund has exceeded [-]%.

Quite a great result.

In 2022, medical insurance also announced the establishment of a fund to enter the big A. By 2031, the scale of the medical insurance fund entering the big A will exceed one trillion yuan.

"Our social security fund and medical insurance fund add up to more than five trillion yuan.

With such a huge amount of funds, there will be large-scale losses in market value due to the turmoil in the stock market.

This is only social security and medical insurance funds, as well as large chip funds, and the equity controlled by various financial state-owned enterprises will suffer losses.

It is very likely that serious losses will be caused, and it will definitely cause a stock market crash.

A stock market crash is inevitable.

The sharp drop in the market value of technology companies does not mean that resource companies can survive alone.

More than 90.00% of the consumer electronics industry will shrink, and the demand for metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and iron will also shrink.

Tourism will also suffer a fatal blow. According to our estimates, the size of the tourism industry will shrink to one-tenth of its size.

Including oil resources will also suffer shrinkage.

A bit like a whale rises and everything falls, virtual reality will cause a fatal blow to most industries.

The only thing that will prosper is the entertainment industry in the field of virtual reality. The entertainment industry will carry 50.00% of society's employment.

Another problem is that there is no value anchor to bind the labor of young people, and the cost of social labor will increase to a great extent. "

As a late-developing country, unlike a first-developing country that can plunder externally, it can only "plunder" internally if it wants to complete primitive accumulation.

Although it is cruel, it is not too much to describe it as plunder.

This is not only true of Huaguo, but also the primitive accumulation of national capital completed in the early stages of USSR and Neon.

Hua Guo chose to use the scissors gap between agriculture and industry to complete primitive accumulation, which is what we call the scissors gap between urban and rural areas.

Give agricultural products a purchase price that does not meet international pricing, and then set a higher price for industrialized products, complete primitive accumulation from farmers, and use these accumulations to develop manufacturing.

In the 21st century, Huaguo, which has completed primitive accumulation, has invented a second method to tie up the future labor force of young people, and that is real estate.

The mortgage loan for real estate is 30 years, that is to say, it binds the consumption ability of young people for the next 30 years, and collects this part of consumption ability as state-owned, and uses the income from real estate to develop infrastructure, technology, military industry, aerospace and other aspects.

A very simple data can show all this. In 2020, local land-related taxes in Huaguo will be two trillion yuan, and land transfer revenue will be nearly 8.4 trillion yuan.

The local general public budget expenditure is about 20 trillion yuan, which means that the land finance bears half of the local government's expenditure.

And it is land finance that can raise tax revenue without supporting local governments too much.

This game can no longer be played by 2020. By 2022, the public has realized that the myth that real estate will only rise but not fall for 20 years will soon be shattered.

During the period from 2022 to 2031, the operation of this method is barely maintained.

But even so, it still cannot resist the sharp drop in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities and the unsustainable local land finance.

However, from real estate developers to the media, they still packaged a myth that housing prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities will continue to rise.

But the emergence of virtual reality technology will shatter this myth, and the real estate bubble will be completely burst.

In the past, the scissors gap between urban and rural areas was a means to learn from USSR, and later real estate was half borrowed from Lion City and Xiangjiang and half self-made.

The road of real estate is also an excellent leek-cutting model that has gradually formed after many years of exploration.

You can not play leeks in the stock market, but you have to play leeks in real estate.

But then the young people discovered that as long as I don't want offspring, I can stop playing this game.

When the real estate bubble bursts and this means is permanently lost in the future, what is the next way?
It takes time to think about it.

"Virtual reality technology will make the land finance model that has come to the end of history and complete its historical significance completely withdraw from the stage of history.

But what kind of new sources of revenue we need to develop in the future, and to form a good financial balance between the central and local governments, is an extremely difficult issue.

Virtual reality brings with it a lot of unexpected variables. "

Harvesting internally is a way, and it is an inevitable way for late-developing countries to achieve industrialization. If you miss the era of external plunder, you will miss it.

Many countries have come here.

Not all countries are as uniquely endowed as American. They seized almost all the advantages of the right time and place. The First World War completed a wave of overseas production capacity undertakings, and the Second World War completed a wave of economic globalization.

In the later petrodollar system, currency globalization was completed, laying the foundation for harvesting the world when there was no money in the next few decades.

Including Huaguo's support to Africa, debt relief is also learned from American, and American's Marshall Plan back then.

The only difference is that Huaguo has only carrots but no sticks, while American has both.

"So I think virtual reality technology is too advanced for us.

It will bring about a fundamental change in everything, and in our current state, we are completely unprepared. "

While this well-known economist in Huaguo was speaking, the big shots were also communicating from time to time.

"I don't know what's going on, but I want to say that, if there is one, I think we should promote it, not refrigerate it.

For Huaguo, no change is the saddest thing, which means that we can only compete within the framework established by Western countries.

On the contrary, if it is such a revolutionary change as virtual reality technology, we are not prepared, and other countries are even less prepared.

We have a chance to bypass the obstacles that American has set up and restore fair play. "

The economist, after entering today's meeting place, realized that there must be something terrible happening.

The big shots present did not sit in their seats with a blank expression as usual, but communicated frequently.

This was something he hadn't encountered before.

Therefore, he had a premonition that Hua Guo had really mastered virtual reality technology.

He didn't want to say the last paragraph, but considering that this was indeed the only chance to achieve Hua's strategic goals without bloodshed, he still said it.

You must know that it is far easier to win without TSMC than with TSMC.

And after winning it, the burden on Hua Guo will be lighter.

The per capita GDP of Wanwan with the semiconductor industry is 3.3 yuan, and the per capita GDP of Wanwan without the semiconductor industry will drop to less than half.

Although the semiconductor industry only accounts for 20.00% of the total output value of Wanwan, a reduction of 20.00% of the total output value will have an impact on all industries, the first to bear the brunt is the consumer industry.

"Mr. Lin, please come with me, sorry, you still can't communicate with the outside world during this time.

You need to wait for the final result before you can regain your freedom. We have already communicated with your family members. "

The economist's heart tightened. Originally, he wanted to re-allocate his assets as soon as possible after the end.

Those that should be sold at a discount should be sold as soon as possible.

A helpless thought flashed in his heart, and he knew that his plan was going to fail.

You must know that economists have a lot of assets, especially economists of this level, all of them allocate assets globally.

Their identities are originally in the blurred zone between the market and the system.

Too far away from the system, unable to fully understand the government's intentions and specific circumstances, most of Huaguo's statistical data will be processed technically.

It would be fine if all the data were processed in the same way. The problem is that different data have different technical processing methods.

In fact, if you are interested, it is easy to find the loopholes in the official caliber data.

And if it is too far away from the market, it will be ungrounded. For example, let the unemployed people go to Didi and rent out the excess houses.

The meeting officially started after experts and scholars from different fields finished their reports.

Zheng Li is not clear, because their conference room is physically isolated from all communication equipment, and there are not even trees around.

Just to prevent eavesdropping by unknown biotechnology.

And in order to prevent Zheng Li from knowing, even the scientist who conducted the investigation this time is not a mage.

But Zheng Li didn't care.

Because it doesn't have to be the country of Hua who cooperates with him, because there are too many countries on this planet.

Not all countries will have the troubles of Huaguo.

This world is not only developed countries, nor is it only China, there are many countries in the world that have nothing to lose.

Huaguo is Zheng Li's preferred target because Huaguo's power is strong enough to spread it the fastest.

As a model project for the cooperation between magic civilization and blue star civilization.

The second goal is the Lion City, the boat is small and easy to turn around.

"Okay, let's talk about your thoughts. About whether to cooperate with Clark?"

"I think there are too many unknown risks, whether in terms of economy or social stability, there are too many risks.

What Professor Lin said just now is only part of it. In addition to the unsustainable local land finance, our financial system will face a comprehensive collapse.

It is not just the revaluation of listed companies in the stock market.

The major banks will have a lot of bad debts.

First of all, the real estate industry uses the ABS route, domestic and overseas bond financing, or traditional credit financing. These financings total about 60 trillion RMB.

Our work in the previous five years was all about dismantling this mine.

On the eve of the completion of bomb disposal, we cannot deal with this mine in a short time. According to the internal plan of the central bank, we need at least three years.

This is a bad debt at the corporate level. Professor Lin just explained clearly enough in terms of local finance.

There are also personal housing mortgage loans. The amount of personal housing mortgage loans in the country is about 30 trillion RMB.

If the house value collapses, this is also a very terrifying thunderstorm. It has already exploded before, but we have split it up so that each thunderstorm is limited to a small area.

But virtual reality technology will trigger a tsunami, we can't split it, only limited to a small area.

From local village banks, to city commercial banks, to commercial banks, and even large state-owned banks, no bank can resist this risk.

I have nothing against working with Clark, but the time should not be now.

Now we are not ready.

The time is too short, we can go and negotiate with him.

It will take at least three years to deal with the value of various state-owned assets without loss and to control the loss to a small range.

In addition to the economic risks, there is also the risk of virtual reality technology itself.

I think everyone can imagine the risks of completely handing over the brain to aliens.

What if Clark could influence every user with the help of virtual reality equipment?
I believe that there is a high probability that the other party will not take action on the safety of the virtual reality device itself.

The product should be safe and reliable, and will not affect human health.

Because after all, such a large-scale opening up, if we first use the Yangtze River Delta region as a pilot area, if there are problems, it will be too easy to expose.

But what if it is some psychological influence, ranging from suggestion to brainwashing?
The uncontrollable risk is too high. "

Huaguo's economy and real estate are too deeply tied, from local governments to major banks to urban investment platform companies.

"I think we can take this opportunity.

Missed this opportunity, when is the next time?
What Clark can show now is virtual reality technology. Do you know how many technologies he has not shown?
In this cooperation, it will not be transferred because of our will. There is only one Clark, but there are many countries from which he can choose.

This is not an equal deal.

It is impossible for us to achieve revival without taking risks. "