Media Tycoon since 1999

Chapter 436 Madman, or Genius?
Wu Ruohan made an appointment with Professor Qin to have dinner together at the hotel at 6:[-] in the evening.

At 6 o'clock in the evening, Gao Yang was dressed in formal attire, and Wu Ruohan, who was dressed as an office worker, was waiting at the east gate of Jiaotong University for a strange person that few people outside the circle knew, the world's top financial quantification expert, Professor Qin Xianglin.

After waiting for about 10 minutes, a man wearing a dark suit, tie, and round-frame glasses, about 172 cm tall and about 40 years old, walked out of the school gate.

Wu Ruohan walked up to Gao Yang with her arm in his arms, smiling, "Hello, Professor Qin, this is my boyfriend, Gao Yang, the founder of 51 Group."

Gao Yang stretched out his hand and shook it warmly: "Hi Professor Qin, excuse me."

Professor Qin is very easy-going: "Mr. Gao, you are welcome."

Gao Yang hurriedly said: "Professor Qin, you can just call me by my name. In front of you, I don't dare to be a master."

Professor Qin just smiled slightly.

Gao Yang and the others led Professor Qin to two Mercedes-Benz E-class cars, Shao Hanyun who was beside the car opened the door, and accompanied Professor Qin to the car.

A few minutes later, two cars drove into the Crowne Plaza Hotel, together with two security guards, a man and a woman, and 6 people ate in a private room.

During the meal, Wu Ruohan introduced the current development of the 51 Group, and Gao Yang also made some supplements.

Professor Qin listened carefully with a smile on his face, occasionally commenting.

This is a person who is easy-going, unobtrusive, and relatively low-key.

An ordinary scholar image.

After dinner, they moved to the tea room, where Gao Yang brewed a pot of Pu'er tea himself, and the four of them drank tea around the tea table.

Gao Yang personally offered a cup of tea: "Professor Qin, we take the liberty to interrupt this time because it is about the US subprime mortgage market. I would like to ask you to give me some pointers..."

Wu Ruohan immediately handed over a piece of information: "Professor Qin, this is the information about the real estate market and subprime mortgage market that we have tracked and investigated in the United States for more than a year. The deadline is September 9 this year."

Professor Qin was very surprised when he heard this, and took the information and read it carefully.

Gradually, Professor Qin's expression changed from surprise to shock.

After reading it, Professor Qin looked up at Gao Yang: "Gao Yang, Ruohan, do you plan to short US subprime loans?"

Gao Yang nodded: "Yes, Professor Qin, we have such a plan."

Professor Qin looked puzzled: "Judging from the follow-up data you provided, it is very detailed, and we have also conducted a very in-depth field investigation on the default situation of US real estate mortgages.

I don't quite understand why you could foresee the overheating of the US real estate market and arrange follow-up surveys in advance? "

Gao Yang said: "Professor Qin, I work in a business and pay more attention to macroeconomics and cycle issues.

I've read some books on business cycles.

For example, the Kangbo cycle discussed by the Russian economist Kondratiev, and the Jugla cycle proposed by the French economist Jugla in the middle of the 19th century.

The Kangbo cycle is a big cycle that studies every five and 60 years. In contrast, I am more interested in the 9 to 10-year Jugra cycle.

In fact, I don't know much about these advanced economic cycle theories, but there is history to compare and verify.

According to Jugra's research, a complete Jugra cycle looks like 9 to 10 years.

Coincidentally, I found out that in 1987, there was a famous financial crisis in the United States.

On October 1987, 10, the famous Black Monday in the U.S. stock market reappeared. The stock market suddenly crashed, and many blue-chip stocks plummeted by more than 19% in one day.

Ten years later, in 10, the Asian financial crisis occurred again, which lasted until 1997.

Now, it's almost a new 10 years.

Ruohan has a cousin named Wu Fei, who has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University and is a professor at Columbia University.

Last year, Wu Fei's family returned to China to visit relatives, and we happened to chat about the real estate market in China and the United States.

At that time, Brother Wu Fei said that the real estate market in the United States has entered a new cycle, because Professor Qin, a famous paper written by you in the early years was discovered by Wall Street, and then Wall Street investment banks, based on your theoretical model, designed the CDO. asset securitization products.

CDO boosted the great prosperity of the US real estate market, as well as the rapid expansion of the MBS market, which attracted countless capital inflows.

It just so happens that I myself have been investing in A-shares since 1999, and experienced a round of bull market from the middle of 2001 to mid-5, and then a big bear market that lasted for [-] years.

My feeling about investing in the stock market is that places with a lot of people and overheated capital inflows will always crash suddenly when the market is at its busiest.

At that time, I communicated with my elder brother, and I remembered the Juglar cycle. I heard him talk about the prosperity of the US real estate market, boosted by CDO and MBS. Will it be in danger of crashing.

So, I entrusted my elder brother and my sister-in-law, who works in a Wall Street investment bank, to start tracking and investigating the development of the US real estate market and the MBS market.

At that time, it was just a hunch, a guess, and then I wanted to see if it could be verified through follow-up investigations.

Unexpectedly, after more than a year of follow-up, my hunch was really initially verified.

Now, the development of mortgage loans in the US real estate market, and the size of the MBS market, which is disordered, chaotic and overheated, is somewhat alarming.

I feel that if this development continues, it is very likely that the phenomenon of the Jugra cycle will appear again. The direction of the market crash is the disorderly development and crazy expansion of MBS.

It's just that we are not familiar with these complex derivative products in the US financial market, its trading mode, how to seize opportunities when they arise, and what suitable investment tools and channels are available.

Professor Qin happens to be a first-class expert in this field, and the CDO created by Wall Street was designed and constructed based on your research paper.

So, today we take the liberty to bother, and beg Professor Qin to give me some pointers..."

The concepts that Gao Yang talked about are actually not professional. For Professor Qin, this is just a directional, general talk.

However, Professor Qin was so startled by Gao Yang's words that his eyes almost dropped.

Based on a Juglar cycle and combined with his experience in stock market investment, Gao Yang guessed that the new round of prosperity in the US real estate market may hide huge financial risks.

Then, put it into practice and arrange personnel to conduct a long-term follow-up investigation.

An unprofessional person who doesn't know much about the U.S. financial market has seen the essence of the market's bubble at a glance.

In the eyes of Professor Qin, Gao Yang's ideas are crazy and genius.

In three or four years, a young man from the 51 Group has been developed. Does he have any special abilities?
Professor Qin suddenly asked: "Gao Yang, you said that you have invested in A shares for 7 years, what is the specific return?"

Gao Yang said: "In my personal name, it was in late October 1999. I opened an account with 10 yuan and entered the market. I remember this very clearly.

Over the years, I have successively increased positions and invested about 1000 million funds. So far, the total return of the full position is about 25 times.

Because it is basically a mid-to-long-term investment, there has never been a loss in a single stock..."

Professor Qin was stunned. Unexpectedly, such a well-known Internet entrepreneur is really an investment genius. No wonder he is so confident in his plan to short the US subprime mortgage market...

(End of this chapter)