Start from 1980

Chapter 1125
Einstein said that to solve a huge problem, one must not follow the logic and ideas that produced the problem.

At this time, the 69-year-old Mie Noyasu is about to usher in his final year as the governor of the Bank of Japan.

I can still vividly remember the smug ambition when I took over as president five years ago.

As a child, he moved around in Northeast China. As a teenager, he was admitted to the No. [-] middle school in Japan, graduated from the Law School of the University of Tokyo, and was recruited by Nao Sasaki to join the Bank of Japan as his successor.

His résumé is stamped with gold, and his heart is full of pride.

In order to defend the yen and establish the independence of the Bank of Japan, he was tough and persistent.

Less than a week after taking office on December 1989, 12, he announced an interest rate hike and began a vigorous financial consolidation.

After a drastic operation, the bubble was punctured, followed by economic shock.

From 1992 to 1993, the Japanese economy experienced a sharp decline.

Aware of the seriousness of the problem, Mieno adjusted the policy in a timely manner and cut interest rates consecutively, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 6% to less than 2%.

小心翼翼的推动货币供应增长，把M1增速从0推高到8%，把M2增速慢慢推升到5%。

Although he spent the second half of his tenure trying to defuse the negative impact of the bubble burst, he was still labeled "the man who popped the bubble".

Even though he has been trying to repair the negative impact caused by the bursting of the bubble over the past few years, he has not succeeded in the end.

But in this world, how can there be such a simple order out of chaos?

Triple worried, he didn't know if he had time to correct all this.

Su Chen came to Japan for an exchange interview. He didn't respond, but let Ito Takatoshi and others test it first. If this person really has real materials, he can meet him.

If it's just a showman, send him away.

The exchange at Hitotsubashi University quickly formed documents and videos and handed them to him, allowing him to intuitively understand the views of these economists.

So after the exchange meeting ended, Mie asked Ito Takatoshi to send out an invitation for him, expressing that he would have a meal with Su Chen.

In the evening, in a relatively private restaurant, Su Chen, accompanied by Ito Takatoshi, was checked by several guards for not carrying weapons, and then he successfully met the president known as the "Heisei ghost".

After a simple greeting, Sanzhong invited the two to sit down, and then said: "Mr. Su, speaking of it, I also have some connections with China, because I grew up in Northeast China when I was a child, but it's all in the past."

"Mr. Sanzhong, this is a gift I specially brought from China." Su Chen handed over the gift he brought, "Mr. Sanzhong please accept a pair of Chinese paintings."

Naturally, it is impossible for him to give away his own treasures, so he found a pair of works from the past ten years.

The price is not expensive, and even if someone spreads the word, it will not constitute bribery.

Unfold the painting and see that it is a painting.

"The title of this painting is "Heart Follows the Sun and Rigao". The vigorous and tall pine trees represent longevity, and the sunflowers symbolize prosperity." Su Chen introduced, "I wish Mr. Sanzhong a long and healthy life and a prosperous career."

When speaking, choose something nice to hear.

There is a saying that you will talk nonsense when you see ghosts, and talk about people when you see people.

Some refer to this as 'high emotional intelligence'.

"Then I will thank Mr. Su for his painting, and accept Mr. Su's blessing." Sanzhong did not refuse, because the painting is not expensive, and it is no problem as a simple gift.

After accepting the painting, he asked the waiter to come in, and said, "Mr. Su and Mr. Ito must be hungry too. Let's start preparing dinner."

Soon, the food will be served.

We ate and chatted.

Sanzhong said: "Mr. Su, I read your exchange at Hitotsubashi University, and it was very good, but you have a different view on the existence of Jusen. Don't you think Jusen is a black sheep?"

The so-called Jusen means that after the economy entered the bubble, some Japanese banks and credit unions hesitated to be restricted by regulations, and the scale of loans to real estate was limited.

So they set up a financial subsidiary, which is called Jusen for short.

Jusen can offer personal mortgages to residents without restriction.

Then they came up with various loan methods, such as: "down payment loan", "zero mortgage", a wide variety, and even came up with "children and grandchildren loans". This term is clear at a glance. loan.

And "100-year loan", the repayment period of this loan is [-] years, and the real father's loan is repaid by the son, and the son's loan is repaid by the grandson.

After entering 1988, many Jusen not only provided mortgage loans to residents, but also provided financing to unqualified commercial real estate developers, and even acquired commercial real estate equity, laying a huge disaster.

Because of this, the Japanese financial regulatory authorities are indifferent to financial institutions that have suffered substantial losses in the stock market and real estate market, thinking that they are "black apples", "asking for trouble" and "deserving their guilt".

Both the official and the public believe that banks are the main culprit for the decline in the stock market and housing market.

But during the exchange today, Su Chen didn't agree with this statement, but he didn't explain the reason clearly, so Triple asked this question.

Su Chen didn't nod or shake his head, and asked, "So Mr. Mie also thinks those Jusen are black sheep? Even if they go bankrupt, don't you save them?"

"That's right." Mie said earnestly, "The central bank will not rescue those Jusen who are struggling. When some bad apples are eliminated, the entire financial system will be healthier."

"It's not that I don't think those institutions are black sheep. In fact, after entering the bubble, absolutely no one can withstand the temptation. Even if there is no Jusen, there will be similar institutions.

But your central bank has been sitting on the sidelines, so if a large-scale financial institution fails next, I don’t think there will be a suitable receiver except the central bank. "

Su Chen said, "If depositors lose their deposits, panic may spread, which will lead to financial systemic risks, and I foresee that the frenzy of these financial institutions' failures will become bigger and bigger."

Takatoshi Ito asked: "Mr. Su, do you think Jusen is innocent in this huge bubble?"

Sanchong also quietly waited for Su Chen's next words.

"It's not without guilt." Su Chen said, "There are many reasons for this bubble, so I think it is a bit exaggerated to regard Jusen as the culprit of the bubble.

I once pointed out in my thesis that the monetary policy should be round and prudent, and both excessive expansion and sudden contraction may have a destructive impact on the national economy.

During the formation of the bubble economy, the extremely expansionary monetary policy played a role in adding fuel to the fire; when the bubble economy burst, the sudden contraction of the monetary policy played a role in worsening the situation.

If it is said that a large amount of money poured into the stock market was caused by Jusen, it is okay to say so, but if there is no Jusen, the public will find ways to get money from other channels to speculate in the stock market.

On the surface, Jusen caused it, but in the final analysis, it was more caused by the over-expansionary fiscal and monetary policies implemented in 1986-1988. "

Mie seriously thought about Su Chen's words, but he didn't raise any objections. The measures he took after he came to power were all to wipe the ass of the policies of the past two years.

Changed his question and asked: "Why does Mr. Su think that the central bank will take over those bankrupt financial institutions?"

　Because it may be related to 404, the full name of most people cannot be used, such as Mie Yekang, referred to as Mie, as long as everyone knows that Mie is talking about this person.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)