The days when I sold coal in the coal mine

Chapter 668

But if we start after three or five years, we will lag behind again, so we must start this work in 2012.

How many people there are in the country, how many farming and planting industries are there? I dare not look at how much each household uses. It has to be measured by the market base.

Well, there are difficulties, and there are ways to solve them. Zhang Xiaobei did a lot of research in the early stage, focusing on many subtle changes in the coal market.

Including the transfer of customers from the market in Tang Province to the market in Qin Province, Zhang Xiaobei has noticed.

What's the matter if you just report the difficulties to the leader? Could it be that the leader has nothing to do to make things difficult for him?
So, this report work is to clearly explain the difficulties and the solutions to the difficulties, otherwise, your report will be incomplete.

Liu Xiangbo nodded after hearing this, obviously in approval.

Of course, what does Liu Xiangbo do? Can a boss not pay attention to the market?

So Liu Xiangbo must know the market trend, but Zhang Xiaobei has to tell him where the specific source is.

Of course, at Liu Xiangbo's level, there must be a lot of news, but Zhang Xiaobei has connected many things together in this way.

Moreover, a main line has been sorted out, and those non-main factors are thrown away, so that the thinking will be clear at once.

This is the so-called principle of refining system and integrity.

Then I said, you are talking about the big aspects, so what are the influencing factors of the small aspects?

Zhang Xiaobei said that there are four main reasons for the minor aspects, and there are many more subtle reasons, so I won’t go into details.

The first one is transportation impact.Last time, the Guanzhou Railway Bureau came to investigate. It is estimated that the freight reform will be implemented in less than a year and a half, and there may even be new actions next year.

Such a reform, although the mechanism on the railway is alive, but for us, the competition may be more intense.

In the past, it was said that there is a separate plan, so old man B, there may be no such thing as a separate plan in the future, and even ordinary people can directly contact the railway for transportation business.

At that time, the transportation capacity of Taihang Station will definitely be tight, so the first point is the transportation problem.

We have to discuss this with the Guanzhou Railway Bureau. Our transportation capacity must be guaranteed every year.

And from now on, we must pay attention to the assessment of the fulfillment of the railway plan. We can't just report the plan, and the fulfillment is not high.

Who will be able to obtain railway transportation capacity in the future depends on whose plan has a high fulfillment rate. Although retail investors will influence us, they do not yet have the ability to suppress us.

Moreover, their plan is fulfilled, because there is no guarantee of supply, it should not be much higher.

So in the future, we must insist on self-sale of coal, find manufacturers, find direct users, or even sell directly to ordinary people.

As for selling to the surrounding intermediate business customers, that is, coal yards, is that creating trouble for ourselves? They buy our coal and then compete with us for transportation capacity?

This finished the first reason, it is time to talk about the second reason.The second reason is the release of production capacity of surrounding coal mines.

In 2008, the resources were integrated. The policy of "closing small businesses and building large ones" has been implemented for three or four years, and next year will definitely see great results.

"Small Guan" has been completed, and now small coal mines with a capacity of less than 30 tons, not to mention Binzhou, can no longer be seen in the entire Tang Province.

"Transformation", the merger and reorganization of some coal mines by medium-sized coal enterprises has also been completed, such as us, such as other medium-sized groups in Tang Province, all came here.

In addition, every county in Tang Province has established a group, no matter what its nature, at least the group has been established.

However, the first two items are all about reducing and controlling production capacity, while "Jianda" is about increasing production capacity, which is completely different.

The new resources approved by the province for some groups will gradually release production starting from 2012.

Zhang Xiaobei said that as far as he knows, it is planned to start production next year. He said that Binzhou has a large area. Within the scope of Longhai County, there are approvals for coal contracting companies, black foreign trade companies, and some large state-owned enterprises cross-border. The batches add up to a total production capacity of nearly 800 million tons.

In 2012, some of the mines under construction will start joint trial operation, some will enter normal production, and the production capacity will be released to varying degrees, which will put a certain pressure on Jinsheng's sales.

But in terms of production capacity, this is almost the production capacity of another Jinsheng Group, which is incredible.

In this situation, we have no other choice but to go ahead of others, compete for customers, and cut prices first.

This is the real reason why I don't want to raise prices since October.

After listening to these two points, Liu Xiangbo took it for granted. At that time, these coal mines will not compete with you for railway transport capacity, transport fleets, or customers. The best way is to use attractive coal mines. The price occupies the customer market.

Zhang Xiaobei went on to talk about the third point, which is the state of customer demand next year.

To be honest, the economic crisis in the Stars and Stripes has been going on for a long time, and many of our manufacturers have not reacted. The overall demand market is not very good.

Zhang Xiaobei said that according to his communication with the real production and use manufacturers, most of the manufacturers will basically have abundant stocks at the end of the year, that is to say, they don't need so much goods for the time being, and they are getting coal now just to be prepared.

In addition, before and after the Spring Festival, some manufacturers started partial production for the sake of safety production.It is said that this year is not the time to catch up with the output and finish the task. Safety is a major issue. You have to let the people pass the year safely. Therefore, if the production can be controlled, it should be controlled, and the demand for coal will naturally be controlled.

There is another point that is even more frightening. Since mid-November, the inland river ports, Fangzhai Port and Louzhou Port, which are the transshipment bases, have kept high coal inventories, and the demand from downstream customers of the ports is currently not very strong.

It is expected that in the first quarter after the beginning of the year, with the recovery of agricultural production and the gradual recovery of coal mines after the shutdown, the coal market will continue. Of course, after a Spring Festival shutdown, they also need to replenish and replenish stocks.

However, with the arrival of the off-season in the second quarter, chemical plants are under maintenance, and the demand will further shrink. At that time, we will not be able to do without price drops, and once the price drops start, it will be difficult to clean up.

Zhang Xiaobei said that according to his prediction, next year's lump coal is estimated to cost 200 yuan/ton, and fine coal will cost more than 250 yuan/ton.

This is our judgment based on the existing customer base. The prices of surrounding coal mines are estimated to be more than 300 yuan/ton.

This is only 2012. Zhang Xiaobei also said, Mr. Liu, we must be mentally prepared. The situation in 2013 is estimated to be even more serious.

Speaking of this, Liu Xiangbo lit another cigarette, and said a rare sentence: "Well, you continue to talk."

Zhang Xiaobei knew that the leader was trying to settle accounts while listening to him.So Zhang Xiaobei didn't want to speak too quickly.

Let me just say one last thing, listen to me, and I won't say more.

Liu Xiangbo nodded and raised his chin.

Zhang Xiaobei said that the fourth point is the customer's ability to bear.

At present, after communicating with end customers, the profit situation in 2011 is not very satisfactory.After calculation, chemical companies have reached the limit of coal price tolerance.

Urea is only sold for 1900 yuan now, and our charcoal alone is 1400 yuan. How much do you think they can earn?Not to mention making money, some companies must have begun to lose money.

In the power industry, although there is demand for power plants after the electricity price has been adjusted by 3 cents, the cost problem is still troubled.

Although 3 cents is already a big deal for the price of electricity, the price of coal is still desperate. It's okay to say it every day or two, but after such a long time, the power plant has basically stopped making money.

Besides steel, rebar is sold at 4600 a ton at the end of the year. In May, it was 5 a ton.Of course, steel is still making money now, but what about next year?

In this way, there is still a trend of price reduction.

So, everyone is having a hard time.

(End of this chapter)