The days when I sold coal in the coal mine

Chapter 706 [-] is more difficult
Most of the news from Jinsheng Group is about business operations, especially coal sales.

Zuo Danya believes that among all the jobs, Zhang Xiaobei likes running the job the most.

In the business work, Zhang Xiaobei believes that sales are the leader, and Zhang Xiaobei himself started as a salesman.

So he should be more concerned about sales.

Therefore, news about the coal market and news about Jinsheng's operating conditions have been constant.

Zuo Danya also tried to read to Zhang Xiaobei word by word.

Regardless of whether Zhang Xiaobei could hear it or not, she read it very carefully.

It is very likely that half of the relevant words will stimulate Zhang Xiaobei's nerves and make him wake up suddenly.

To save a person is not to let him be at ease in everything, but to make him worry about everything and let him have thoughts.

"In the fourth quarter of 2012, coal demand continued to weaken. The overall situation of 'restricting production and ensuring prices' has generally taken shape."

"The import of coal has been suppressed, and the price may fluctuate slightly, but not by much."

"The domestic economy in G will continue to grow at a low level in the fourth quarter, but the risk of further decline in growth has been reduced."

"This determines that the overall demand for coal in G will continue to be weak, but the possibility of further shrinkage in demand is greatly reduced."

"There are three main reasons why it is judged that the economic growth in G will continue at a low level."

"First, due to the impact of the European debt crisis, the euro zone economy shrank, and the world economy as a whole was weak."

"It is hard to say that China's foreign trade situation is optimistic, and the role of exports in stimulating economic growth is extremely limited."

"Second, F real estate control policies in G will continue, and F real estate development and investment will still be restrained to a certain extent."

"F Real estate regulation coupled with the negative impact of exports, the overall growth pressure on fixed asset investment is still relatively large."

"Third, factors such as car purchase restrictions and income distribution structure will continue to restrict the growth of consumer demand."

"So, all things considered, coal demand overall will remain weak in this scenario."

"In addition, by the fourth quarter, the situation of voluntary or passive production restriction of coal production capacity in 2012 has basically stabilized, and coal imports have also entered a stage of restraint. A new supply-demand relationship is about to be formed, and price fluctuations are not expected to be too large."

It seems that everything is as expected by Zhang Xiaobei. The coal situation in the fourth quarter of 2012 is still not optimistic, but fluctuates slightly.

In other words, in the fourth quarter of 2012, the coal sales price can only stop falling at most, and it is impossible to go up.

In fact, as of the end of December 2012, the annual sales task of Jinsheng Group was basically completed.

Moreover, the price level has reached Zhang Xiaobei's expected level, and it is also higher than the expected level by nearly dozens of nearly 100 yuan per ton.

From January to December 2012, the average sales price of Jinsheng Group's lump carbon was 1 yuan/ton.

Compared with the average price of lump carbon in 2011, it decreased by 138 yuan/ton.

The annual average sales price of fine coal is 717 yuan/ton.

This is 2011 yuan/ton lower than the average price of the final coal in 124.

The overall average sales price of coal is 890 yuan/ton, which is 2011 yuan/ton lower than that in 167.

"For the coal market in 2013, the sales branch made the following judgments:"

"First of all, it is still affected by oversupply; secondly, the uncertain factors of Z policy still exist; finally, it will take time for prices to recover."

"The first reason is that the second integration of coal resources in Tang Province is about to start."

"It is reported that the second round of coal resource integration in Tang Province is about to start, which will be accompanied by the transfer of coal mine ownership and the upgrade of mines."

"What will follow will probably be rectification and production suspension within a period of time."

"That is to say, it is still necessary to achieve the production of advanced production capacity and the withdrawal of backward production capacity."

"After the first merger and reorganization of coal mines in Tang Province, among the more than 1100 existing coal mines, the ratio of state-owned, private, and mixed-owned mines is 2:3:5."

"The proportion of mines owned by private enterprises is still very large, the proportion of mines operated independently is still high, and the concentration of production is still not high."

"However, the proportion of mixed-owned mines has risen rapidly, and mixed ownership is estimated to be the main direction of future reform."

"So this integration may bring about a slight tightness in coal supply during some periods of time."

"The goal of this integration is a large group, a large base, and a large coordination mechanism."

Well, this is to tell Zhang Xiaobei that the property rights reform you thought before is still going on.

It's just that the goal of the reform is getting bigger and bigger. This time, we need to build a bigger group and a bigger base.

Moreover, the mixed ownership reform is a brand new direction, and this is a great opportunity for the full implementation of the modern enterprise system!
Also, if you don't wake up again, this drama of reform and the market will have nothing to do with you.

……

"Specifically, in 2013, Tang Province's overall coal production is not expected to decrease significantly, and the situation of oversupply will still exist."

Well, this is the conclusion of the first point just said:
Perhaps through the second resource integration, the output has been reduced to a certain extent, but it has not been reduced to fully meet the demand, and this has to be gradually adjusted.

"The second reason is that in the 2012 Implementation Plan of the [-]th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry issued by the F Reform Commission, the top three major coal producing areas in Mongolia, Tang and Qin provinces are expected to reduce production."

"After that, Tang Province reflected that the expected target set was too low."

"In the past two years, the heavy industry in Tang Province has developed rapidly, and its own demand has grown rapidly."

"At the same time, Tang Province's coal transfers outside the province accounted for 70%-80%. Once the reduction is excessive, it may affect the supply."

"According to this news, it is also expected that the coal output of Tang Province in 2013 will not decrease too much."

"Therefore, it is again expected that the oversupply of coal supply in Tang Province will still exist in 2013."

Well, although there is support for the second round of coal resource integration, where is the reality of industrial development? This is a fact that cannot be avoided.

Moreover, the progress of the second round of resource integration should not be that fast.

After all, this is a big move, and it will be difficult to complete in a few years.

Therefore, the night of 2013 is the first year of the second integration work, and it is still unknown how much the output can be reduced.

"The third reason is that after the [-]th National Congress of D, it is initially expected that new economic stimulus policies may be introduced."

"Although the F Reform Commission has accelerated project approval, it mainly focuses on water conservancy, electric power, environmental protection, high-speed rail, rail transit, telecommunications, affordable housing, and infrastructure construction in the central and western regions."

"This will slightly promote chemical products and industrial chemical raw materials, but the construction of the project will take some time."

"This also means that there is still a certain waiting time for the policy to take effect."

"Therefore, it will take time for the national macro policy to bring support to the anthracite market."

"In short, in 2013, the uncertainty of the recovery of the world economy and the domestic economy, the uncertainty of the implementation of stimulus policies, and the uncertainty of the expectation that coal companies will stop production and limit production...these are all possible."

"All of these will lead to periodic shocks in coal prices, but these are just appearances, and it will take time for real prices to recover."

Zhang Xiaobei, take a look at what has become of the coal market. It is very likely that next year your 620 yuan coal price will almost be lost.

If you don't wake up, what will happen to your Jinsheng Group? There are tens of thousands of employees waiting for you to support them.

Look at the estimated comprehensive cost of your Jinsheng Group in 2013. Let me, Zuo Danya, calculate it for you. Listen up, Zhang Xiaobei.

"In 2013, Jinsheng Group's comprehensive cost per ton of coal was 340 yuan."

"The various withdrawal fees and taxes are 124 yuan."

"In addition, the wages of employees of your Jinsheng Group and the "five insurances and one housing fund" have not been reduced at all, 146 yuan/ton."

"It's almost half of the profit, which is more conscientious."

"Preliminarily, it is estimated that the lump coal price of your Jinsheng in 2013 will be reduced to 990 yuan/ton, the sales price of fine coal will be reduced to 450 yuan/ton, and the overall average price will be reduced to 630 yuan/ton."

"That is to say, there is still a profit margin of 290 yuan at most."

"The cost depreciation after the technical transformation of the mine is getting bigger and bigger day by day."

"In recent years, the total investment in technological transformation has reached more than 20Y, and the depreciation of fixed assets has directly increased by 15 yuan per ton of coal."

"The financing cost is high. In order to ensure the production, construction and normal operation of the mines under the group, and at the same time affected by the rising price level, loans continue to increase, and the cost of financial expenses per ton of coal will increase by more than 30 yuan per ton."

"The compensation for village relocation and land subsidence in the mining area is high."

"In recent years, Jinsheng Group has invested about 4Y yuan in this area. If it is amortized over 5 years, the cost per ton of coal will increase by another 15 yuan."

"After resource integration, the fixed cost is high. Every year, Jinsheng Group needs to pay more than 3000 million yuan in compensation to the village where the integrated mine is located, and the cost of coal per ton will increase by 10 yuan."

……

Zhang Xiaobei, wake up quickly, look at this coal mine, it is worse than every year, your cost has increased by dozens of dollars.

Of course, the increase in financing costs is the main reason. You have Jinshengcheng and supply chain companies as cash flow support, which is much better than other companies.

But profits are decreasing and costs are rising. If you don't get up, Jinsheng will be really more and more difficult every day.

(End of this chapter)