Riding the wind of rebirth

Chapter 534 Chatting at the Fish Pavilion
"That means he's also preparing, but he's not ready yet?" Zhou Zhi asked.

"He said he didn't have much in hand, and the other one had more." Jiang Wu said, "He invited me to Beijing to discuss in detail."

"Oh? That's a good thing." Zhou Zhi is a reborn person, and he wouldn't naively think that the lively scene on Nanbian Island could only be handled by one or two people. Behind the characters, just like Jiang Wu, what is involved, almost without exception, is the interests of a group of people.

And it is conceivable that those who can withdraw early in this big drama will not have their own help behind them.

Now that such assistance has thrown an olive branch, it is indeed not a bad thing for Jiang Wu.

"Is it a good thing? What did I say to them?" Jiang Wu couldn't help being angry: "When are you going to leave?"

It is interesting to ask these two questions together, which shows that Jiang Wu still wants to go subjectively, but he is worried that he will not find a topic, or that he will not be able to give an opinion, but will be looked down upon by others, and he wants to encourage Zhou Zhi to be brave.

In fact, this is because Jiang Wu's vision is not broad enough. Now people who go to sea, the words that are on the lips again are "How bold people are, how productive the land is." Take the real estate in the south as an example, from the earliest hundreds of thousands One mu has risen to 500 million per mu today, and the end has not yet been seen.

"Brother Wu, the truth is actually very simple. There is an old saying that 'a family is rich, but hair is not counted'. It means that some assets seem to be rich, but in fact they contain too much risk."

"I don't know how many assets you have purchased there, but the current profits have accumulated to an astonishing height, and correspondingly, the risks have also accumulated to a very terrifying height."

"Data analysis is ready-made, and it can be easily done by a research team." Zhou Zhi said: "Regarding risks and risk release, in fact, similar analysis results can be obtained through stock market research."

"If you compare vertically, there is an exact matching case - the Florida real estate bubble in the 20s in the United States."

"If you compare it horizontally, the island country has already seen signs of a crisis of foreign capital withdrawing from this year. In March last year, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Regulations on Controlling Land-related Financing". The Nikkei index rose from 1990 in [-] [-] points, all the way below [-] points, [-], [-], and below [-] in August, it is basically a foregone conclusion."

"And the leader of all this, starting from the release of the "Regulations on Controlling Land-related Financing", declared that real estate is the leader. This is a bloody hard landing."

"From [-] to [-], the land price in the central area of ​​the island country increased nearly three times. In [-], the land price in the island country exceeded the land price in the United States by four times. By last year, the land price in Tokyo reached the land price in the United States." Selling Tokyo and buying the United States' has become a joke of theirs."

"However, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse after March last year, and it is far from the end."

"Without the intervention of major policies and the free development of the market, no matter how hype the analysts say, the fundamentals of supply and demand and the investment purpose of the real estate market on the big island in the south are really there. Inhuman."

"All the status quo that deviates too much from the law of development in history will eventually be corrected by the constraints of the law of development, and sometimes it will be 'overcorrected', causing the status quo to deviate in the opposite direction and return to the right track."

"The process of this economic law is called the economic cycle. Everything has two sides. The cyclical law of the market economy is its 'bad' side."

"No matter what school of economics it is, there are profound descriptions of this, but these things are not yet familiar to the main practitioners participating in the market economy."

"But Brother Wu, don't worry. Although the market economy has been implemented for almost ten years, it is still at a very primitive and simple stage."

"Original means that professionals who are well versed in the laws of nature are still too scarce, and theoretical researchers and market practitioners are still out of touch, or in other words, there are no people who can achieve the 'integration of knowledge and action'. "

"So you don't have to worry, Brother Wu. Even in the capital, those who are proficient in theory are all in colleges and political research offices, and there are probably not many so-called wavers who are better than you."

Jiang Wu smiled: "I didn't dare to be confident before. After digesting your content today, let my subordinates do research according to this idea and give me a few reports. I guess it will be almost the same."

"Then let's talk about simplicity." Zhou Zhi said with a smile: "The so-called simplicity means that people have not learned to use their own economic knowledge to intervene in the economy, artificially changing the inherent trajectory of economic operation, and causing unexpected results."

"That is to say, the operation of the current domestic market economy has a context to follow. The real estate operation cycle in the south will most likely follow the path of the first real estate crisis in the United States and island countries."

"But our country has its particularity." Jiang Wu continued to ask: "Intervention of the will of the state."

"Yes." Zhou Zhi nodded, "If the state intervenes, it's not a problem, but if the state intervenes now, it's tantamount to the state paying for the greed of some individuals, and the South Island itself does not currently have very outstanding investment value."

"In fact, referring to the rise of capitalist countries, we can find that several elements are indispensable for the market economy to achieve great development, including capital, resources, manpower, and markets."

"Does the South Island have these advantages? Compared with several special zones, what are its advantages?"

"The South Island doesn't have capital, resources, not to mention manpower, the market, let alone anything else, even if the product is produced and shipped to a place in China that needs its product, the shipping fee will be a huge expense."

"As a large area of ​​tourism and agricultural products, it has unique advantages. As a large area of ​​light and heavy industries that the country urgently needs, the South Island does not have the conditions."

"It's not that you can replace Hong Kong Island by looking for a coastal city randomly. The import and export trade, international logistics, and financial services that Hong Kong Island relies on rely on not only convenient ports and preferential policies, but also strong capital. A large number of professionals, as well as countless companies and firms that are closely connected with all over the world."

"Talents in this area may not be able to reach the level of Hong Kong Island even if the capital, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and several special zones are all added up. How can someone dare to shout slogans on the South Island issue?"

"So the so-called geographical advantage is nothing more than a gimmick, which cannot be refuted. Even if the country fully supports it, the foundation of the South Island is there, and it cannot escape the constraints of economic laws no matter what."

"I believe those in Beijing are far more aware of these issues than we are."

(End of this chapter)