The investment era of rebirth

Chapter 111 Stock Picking Logic
"Short-term speculation and long-term speculation are equally important." Su Yu said, "We must have institutional thinking and a hot money operating level. It is necessary to compete with hot money and guide the concept of the market to hype the market."

"The funds are divided into two parts..."

"Part of it is long-term investment, choosing high-quality stocks with huge potential for performance explosion."

"With this part of the funds, after buying chips, as long as the fundamentals are not fulfilled, no matter whether the stock rises or falls, it will not let go. During this period, traders can be used to conduct intraday operations, appropriately reduce the retracement between positions, and train trading The player's sense of the market and the principles of transaction execution."

"I decided to let you be responsible for this part of the fund operation."

"The other part of the funds is set aside for aggressive short-term hype and emotional investment. I am responsible for this part."

"The net worth of short-term speculation will fluctuate greatly, but the long-term holdings will have relatively stable net worth fluctuations. The two are compatible. No matter the risk retracement or the trend of net worth, it should be better."

"But no matter short-term speculation, or long-term holdings."

"The investment strategy around the main line of 'mobile Internet' remains unchanged."

"Yes!" Li Meng replied, "As long as it is conducive to the growth of the fund's net worth, whether it is a long-term stock holding strategy or a short-term speculation strategy, I don't think it matters."

"Since there is no objection on the operating strategy..."

Su Yu opened the door and walked into the room, changed his shoes, and said with a smile: "Then let's discuss the selection of individual stock targets under the main line investment strategy."

Saying that, Su Yu didn't wait for Li Meng to respond.

He walked into the bedroom, changed his clothes, and then went to the living room with his laptop in his arms.

Li Meng changed into a slightly loose pajamas, and then tidied up in the bathroom for a while, then came to the living room, turned on his computer, and showed Su Yu the proposed investment targets he had selected.

Su Yu glanced at the stock she had chosen before.

I saw that it is mainly distributed in the major sectors of white goods, medicine, electronic information, and mobile Internet. There are stable stocks and radical stocks.

The ones that are stable and have excellent historical performance are mainly Midea, Gree, Fuxing Medicine, and Changchun High-tech.

Relatively aggressive companies include Goertek and O-Film, which have entered the Apple industry chain, and Flush and Oriental Fortune, which are in the field of mobile Internet finance.

"White goods and pharmaceuticals are the long-term sectors in the bull-bear crossing of the market."

As Su Yu checked his stock selection plan, Li Meng explained the logic on the side: "Moreover, the cyclical nature of these two industries is not obvious, and they are still growing in the industry. Excellent companies have further penetrated the market share. During the period of simultaneous growth of the industry scale.”

"Gree has already occupied an absolute leading position in the field of air conditioners, with a significant technology and brand moat, and... I heard that the follow-up product line will expand to the mobile phone field, and its dividends and historical performance are excellent. On a comprehensive basis, in the entire A-share market, it should be difficult to find a stock with better fundamentals than it.”

"As for Midea... the brand effect and the market penetration rate of its main products are further improving, and its product line expansion and category expansion are more radical than Gree. In white goods, an industry that continues to grow and has a lot of snow. In China, its potential for continued growth, I think Bigley, should be comparable."

"Fuxing Medicine has excellent performance. Whether it is its research and development capabilities, generic drug market production, sales capabilities, or its expansion capabilities, it is difficult. In the domestic pharmaceutical industry, it is considered an evergreen tree. The upward sustainable growth space is unknown, but downward There is basically no room for it, and it can be regarded as a fairly stable growth stock.”

"After the merger of Changchun High-tech Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., its fundamentals have undergone fundamental changes. In the field of growth hormone, in terms of market share, it is basically a unique business with a monopoly nature, and its history In terms of performance growth, although everyone seems to be indifferent to the issue of 'height', they are actually very concerned about it. The explosive performance growth potential of this stock may not be high, but the potential for sustained growth is considerable Strong."

"The logic of GoerTek and OFILM is naturally 'iPhone'."

"The best-selling of iPhone products is beyond doubt. The two companies are on the top of Apple's list, and they are still in the big wave of 'comprehensive upgrading of smartphones'. Their performance has a huge potential to continue to explode. And these two companies Although this stock has been hyped for one or two rounds by the market, the overall valuation level is not too high, so it can be used as an offensive investment target.”

"Straight Flush and Eastern Fortune..."

"I made the choice according to the main line of 'Internet Finance' you mentioned."

"You and I are both people in the securities industry. We usually use these two platform software to check information and trade. Although their current profit model is completely realized by advertising revenue and information value-added services, the ability of users to monetize Neither are too strong."

"But carrying the express train of 'Mobile Internet', in the process of accumulating the number of users."

"As long as any new liquidity point is found, the performance will usher in an explosion of several times, and the potential is still very large."

Su Yu listened to Li Meng's logical explanation, nodded slightly, and said: "Logically speaking, your previous stock selection strategy is not a big problem, and it is also like your style to make progress steadily."

"But now that we have decided to start with 'mobile Internet' as the core line."

"And there is an urgent need for performance improvement."

"Then, the few solid stocks you've selected must be shelved."

"It is true that Gree, Midea, Fuxing Medicine, and Changchun High-tech are all excellent stocks and excellent companies that can go through bulls and bears and are on the snowy road of continuous growth."

"However, because of the entire market, they know that they are excellent companies."

"So, in terms of expectations, it is difficult to have performance that exceeds expectations, and naturally it is difficult to have stock price performance that exceeds market expectations."

"En!" Li Meng nodded, but did not refute this point.

Indeed, when everyone knows that this is an excellent company, then naturally they have enough expectations for its performance, and the current stock price has naturally fully reflected the current market expectations. Get what excess return on investment.

It's like a class of outstanding students who are already in the top of the exam.

Everyone knows that he can score above 90 in the usual exams, so when the results come out, he scored 92 in the exam, and everyone will not be surprised.

But if a student who usually only gets 50 or 60 points in the test suddenly gets 92 points in the test.

Although the grades are equal to eugenics.

But everyone's reaction is completely different, and the degree of praise they get will naturally be different.

This is why in the market, sometimes excellent stocks do not rise, while stocks with average fundamentals soar, because in essence, the logic of stock price rises and falls is expected, not fundamentals.

Clinging to the fundamentals of stocks, ignoring the logic of expectations.

Stocks with excellent fundamentals and excellent historical performance should rise, and stocks with rubbish fundamentals should fall. I am afraid that it will be difficult to make money from the beginning to the end.

"Then what about the target you selected?" Li Meng asked curiously after pondering for a moment.

Su Yu turned the computer screen to her...

Li Meng took a serious look, and saw that the stocks selected by Su Yu basically revolved around the core theme of 'Mobile Internet', but the distribution of individual stocks belonged to different subdivisions.

"Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, LeTV..."

Li Meng looked all the way down and found that except for the two stocks of 'Flush Flush and Oriental Fortune', there was nothing the same.

"The checks of Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, and LeTV have basically doubled from the bottom up!" Li Meng said in surprise, "And to be honest, looking at... these Although the market is hyped about the prospect of futures, I am afraid that it will be difficult to realize it in the end.”

"You don't need to realize the final performance, you only need to realize the logic and expectations." Su Yu said, "No one can say for sure how far the future performance will explode. Even the most professional investment research institutions in the world, Even the company itself has no way of knowing its performance in two or three years."

"So, we only need to look at the ticket with the broadest market expectations within a year."

"After all, stock prices speculate on performance expectations, not performance."

"Based on current market expectations..."

"Fenda Technology has obtained Apple's technology certification and entered the wearable market. As the wearable market is still in a hazy state of development, everyone's expectations for it are obviously much higher than those of the mobile phone industry chain stocks that are simply listed on Apple's thigh. And its performance has enough room to fulfill expectations and imagination.”

"Netspeed Technology occupies the important threshold of 'network acceleration node'."

"In the future where everyone will rely more and more on the Internet and have higher and higher browsing needs, relying on the explosive growth of 'mobile Internet' users, the market expectation space and performance imagination space are extremely strong. .”

"As the only company with full qualifications and licenses in online games, Huaqingbao stands on the cusp of mobile game explosion, that is, it has the first-mover advantage, and it can be stable and expand at will, enjoying enough wind bonuses The opportunity to seize the opportunity in the development time of the industry."

"It doesn't matter whether it can really grow up under the favorable innate conditions in the end."

"At least in the current market expectations, it has become the stock with the strongest expectations and the largest potential for future expectations in the line of 'mobile games'. Of course, when its first-mover advantage is gradually lost, and its own basic If there is still no fundamental change in terms of face and performance."

"The expected logic will naturally collapse, and it is time to leave."

"As for LeTV..."

"Under the operation of Mr. Jia, it is not just a video website. After the 'super TV' strategy was proposed, the market is very optimistic about its entry into the 'smart TV equipment' field, and its own video content production and user volume , are currently in the stage of explosive growth. According to what Boss Jia said, what he wants to build is an ecological platform, not a simple video website platform. Although we can't be sure whether this is true or not, we can't be sure whether this strategy can be completed. But at least in the current market expectations, it has the potential to become a giant enterprise in the future 'mobile Internet' era, and this...is enough."

"The logic of Straight Flush and Oriental Wealth, you said just now, and I agree with it."

"These two checks are essentially closely related to market sentiment and traditional brokerage business."

"We are optimistic about the future of the market, so under the emerging main line of 'Internet Finance', these two enterprise platforms, as the auxiliary stock trading software and information channels used by most investors in the market, are naturally not to be missed, and they can It is foreseeable that with the improvement of market investment sentiment and the gradual replacement of PC terminals with mobile smart terminals, the investor base will be expanded on a larger scale.”

"The user groups of these two platforms will definitely have a huge leap in the future."

"In my opinion..." Su Yu finished talking about the logic of his stock selection, paused, and continued, "Investment is a knockout game from fiction to reality."

"No one can predict which company, which enterprise, can perfectly fulfill expectations in the future."

"What we can do is to follow the trend and invest according to our own cognition, the choice of market funds and logical expectations under the premise of meeting the largest expected space in the current market."

"And then on the investment journey, as the stock price and expectations change."

"Gradually eliminate those individual stocks that do not meet expectations, and then... make the next selection."

"I don't like falling in love with stocks."

"Because in my opinion, no matter how good a company is, its performance will fall short of expectations, because no company... can grow continuously."

PS: Please don’t take the logic in the article, personal opinion, and different opinions seriously, just read it as a joke, thank you!

(End of this chapter)