The investment era of rebirth

Chapter 143 Don't fall in love with stocks!
"Shanghai Iron and Steel Union really deserves to be the leading soul stock in the two cities. The last 15 minutes of the end of trading are wonderful."

Seeing the closing results of the Shanghai Steel Union and seeing the stock's shocking reversal in the last 15 minutes of late trading, some retail investors on online stock forums couldn't help but marvel.

"Without the seat blessing of Fortune Road, and under the bad performance, it is still going so strong. It seems that the market is not over!"

"Catching up in the early trading, I thought I was buried, but I didn't expect there would be a surprise in the late trading."

"The trend of the Shanghai Steel Federation today is a dishwashing, right?"

"Absolutely. Looking at the time-sharing transactions in the last [-] minutes of late trading, the big funds are actually buying, and basically all the selling is loose orders."

"It may also be the main force to save itself!"

"Whether it's washing the dishes or saving yourself, you'll know when you watch the Dragon and Tiger List later."

"Yes, the Shanghai Steel Federation has a big swing today, and the turnover rate is also quite high. There must be a dragon and tiger list."

"Although there is no second-link board, when the market is expected to be weak, it finally closed sharply higher and outperformed the index. This is enough to prove the strength of this stock, and it is also enough to show that its market is not over."

"Yes, the originally weak sentiment in the market was directly reversed by the rise in the late trading."

"However, the rise in the late trading is still a bit of a surprise attack. If the market is not going well today and the investment sentiment in the market is hot, I am afraid that the Shanghai Steel Federation will directly drop to the limit at 1 o'clock."

"On the whole, the active funds in the market today, the main direction of attack is still in stocks with better-than-expected performance."

"How can there be? Many blue-chip and white horse sectors with good performance, except for liquor, have basically not moved."

"It should be said that stocks with better-than-expected performance in the emerging industry sector, such as Wangsu Technology and Fenda Technology, are indeed better than Shanghai Steel Union today."

"The logic is different. I still like the straight-forward profiteering type of the Shanghai Steel Federation."

"I am the same, and I see that after the Shanghai Steel Federation came out on Fortune Road, it fell all the way, and quickly stopped falling at the height of the nine boards in the first wave of speculation in the early stage, that is, around 20 yuan. This shows that the Shanghai stock market Steel Union's future expectation logic should be recognized by the short-term funds of the entire market. Even without the blessing of Fortune Road's seats, market funds have great expectations for the future expectations of this stock. Naturally, this check... …there’s plenty of room for upside.”

"Obviously, in the short-term, it should be weak or strong, which is the performance of the Shanghai Steel Federation today."

"I also feel that the Shanghai Steel Federation has a strong support ability in the price range of 20 yuan to 23 yuan. Facts have proved that the funds have been killed several times. For so many days, the cumulative turnover rate has exceeded 100%, that is, The bargaining chips on the floor have almost changed, but the Shanghai Steel Federation is still holding on at this position, and the stock price will inevitably rise in the future.”

"Yesterday's daily limit should explain the expected attitude of big money towards this stock, right?"

In the online stock forums, when everyone's discussion on the stock of Shanghai Steel Union was rising again... Su Yu's main hot money group, some people also expressed surprise at the stock's trend today.

"The trend of the Shanghai Steel Federation today... is a bit beyond expectations!"

"Indeed, I originally thought that the check would not be pulled up when the emotions were fermenting in the early trading. In the afternoon, when all the funds in the market were chasing the performance ticket, it was going to be lowered. I didn't expect it to be pulled up from the water in the end. There is something for the funds to make this check!"

"Shanghai Steel Federation's future expectations are still there, and today it can be regarded as divergence has turned into consensus."

"Yes, if many performance tickets that performed well today fall back tomorrow, then funds will naturally flow back to the 'Internet Finance' sector headed by Shanghai Steel Federation."

"To be honest... I am not optimistic about the main direction of capital attack today, especially the liquor sector."

"Let's not say that the current market is still a game of stock funds, and these white horses and blue chips that are stuck in layers cannot be moved at all. Even for stocks such as Netspeed Technology and Fenda Technology, it is almost time for a correction. After all, from Since the market bottomed out on June 6th, the cumulative gains of these stocks have been too large, and the accumulation of profit margins has become very thick. At this time, funds are attacking these areas, and it is difficult to continue to create a profit-making effect, and it is even more difficult to let The majority of retail investors, in this position, continue to catch up and carry on the relay."

"On the other hand, the Shanghai Steel Union and many purely conceptual 'Internet Finance' stocks have been fully adjusted recently."

"Furthermore, in this sector, almost all concept stocks do not have a large float, which is very suitable for the current attack direction of market funds."

"I also think that the Shanghai Steel Federation and the market of the 'Internet Finance' sector are endless."

"After all, it is the core concept of 'financial technology' strongly promoted by the country's macro economy, and I think it can continue to be done."

"There are no 5 times or 10 times stocks like this core main line concept, and it is definitely not until the end."

"What about the leading bid? Do you think it will still be driven by the Shanghai Steel Federation?"

"Currently, the Shanghai Steel Federation is the most popular and has the greatest capital accumulation effect. If it is to be done, it must be based on this check. Of course... Tianyu's information is not bad."

"Today, Tianyu Information is indeed better than Shanghai Steel Union."

"But today's trend logic of Tianyu Information should be completely different from that of Shanghai Steel Federation, right?"

"Hey, the Shanghai Steel Federation or Brother Su walked out of the sky and the floor on the day of his appearance is too hurt. It will be very difficult to cross that huge negative line in the follow-up!"

"Well, indeed... This check is essentially the core concept ticket of Brother Su."

"It's a pity that Brother Su cleared his position at a high position after making two big profits, so he probably won't come back again, right?"

"That's hard to say, Brother Su rarely plays cards according to the routine!"

"Let's take a look at the Dragon and Tiger List. It's very aggressive to raise the funds of the Shanghai Steel Federation at the end of today. I don't know which one is the main force?"

Following the intense discussion among the crowd, at 5:[-] p.m., the new dragon and tiger list was announced.

The Shanghai Steel Federation is on the list, and Su Yu's seat on Yuhang Fortune Road has entered the buying list.

Although his seat buying capital is not large, only 990 million, ranking third on the buying list, it is far inferior to buying one or two, but when the majority of investors in the market see Yuhang Fortune Road reappearing in Shanghai Steel Union to buy At the moment of the list, the crowd was still excited, and the discussion was hot, and it exploded in an instant.

"Fuck, Fortune Road has appeared on the Shanghai Steel Federation Dragon and Tiger List again!"

"Haha... Wealth Road is finally back, I knew it, I knew it... The Shanghai Steel Union's market will never end."

"I finally waited for the return of the King of Fortune Road. I was moved... I took the bargaining chip at 29 yuan. Is it finally possible to get rid of it this time?"

"Shanghai Steel Union is indeed a favorite stock of Fortune Road!"

"What is the concept stock of 'Fuxing Department', what is the leading concept of 'Internet Finance'? In my opinion... the biggest logic of Shanghai Steel Union's rise is the concept of wealth road. Only when wealth road is dominant, this stock can make people continue. Take a high look, I didn't say anything...tomorrow, I will rush to raise money."

"However, the funds purchased by Fortune Road today are not big!"

"Today should be the test position of Fortune Road? Don't worry, I think since Fortune Road is still buying, it will definitely continue to increase its position."

"It doesn't matter how much money Fortune Road buys, what matters is the attitude."

"Yes, as long as you follow suit quickly, you won't lose money at all within three trading days after you buy it on Fortune Road."

"Shanghai Steel Union is the biggest bull stock in the market this year, right?"

"Not counting. If you calculate the overall increase from the beginning of the year to today, Hua Qingbao is the real one. Although the Shanghai Steel Federation has risen twice in a row in the past two months, the correction in each wave is also fierce. , It’s either a daily limit or a daily limit, and the overall increase is actually not that big.”

"Shanghai Steel Union can only be regarded as a demon stock, not a bull stock."

"But no matter if it is a monster stock or a bull stock, as long as it is taken care of by Fortune Road, it will not be bad, and seeing that Fortune Road is buying, you can buy it with confidence, just don't let it rise a lot later, Just keep chasing higher.”

"Indeed, speaking of it, the stocks that have risen sharply in the current market are all Fortune Road concept stocks!"

"Isn't that? Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information... these tickets, that Fortune Road has never done it? And in Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, Tianyu Information these tickets never The wave of gains from the bottom is basically the work of Fortune Road.”

"I have to say that Fortune Road's ability to mine bull stocks and create monster stocks is really unique."

"There is no such thing as the strongest hot money in the current market."

In the entire online and offline, countless retail investors who followed the Shanghai Steel Federation were excited and surging. In the main hot money group where Su Yu was, everyone was quite shocked by the data of the Shanghai Steel Federation.

"Damn it, it's really Brother Su!"

"I just said that there is something in the funds that the Shanghai Steel Federation raised in the late trading, as expected."

"Brother Su came in and went out twice. On this stock, he earned almost 5 times the profit, which is enough to make people envious and jealous. Is Brother Su planning to make another wave?"

"It's very possible!"

"Looking at the market situation, after Brother Su's seat was exposed again, the popularity of the Shanghai Steel Federation has directly soared to the top of the list of hot stocks in the two cities."

"I have to say, it has to be Brother Su Niu!"

"However, the Shanghai Steel Federation is in this position, and there will be another wave of market trends. There should not be many people who dare to follow suit? Can they be pulled up? Moreover, Brother Su's seat is too influential. If he enters the market on a large scale Afterwards, especially after two or three boards are pulled out, I am afraid that many of the main funds will not dare to enter the field to relay."

"After all, according to the previous experience, if it takes too long after the Su brothers enter the field, then follow the trend of the high position relay."

"Once the Su brothers come out quickly, the effect of retail investors following the trend and smashing the market will be quite terrifying, and no main funds can bear it."

"It's just like the main hot money that was undertaken by the Shanghai Steel Federation for 30 yuan earlier, it was really directly slaughtered by Brother Su."

"As long as the logic of the Shanghai Steel Federation is strong enough, there will be no problem."

"Brother Su enters the arena, within the third board, there shouldn't be much risk. Outside of the third board, it's hard to say."

"Even if it's the height of the third board, it has to directly touch the 30 yuan position. That's a solid bargaining area. Brother Su shot and killed this time... Are you really going to be the People's Liberation Army?"

"It's hard to say, Brother Su entered three times, which made me afraid to follow."

"Take a step, take a look!"

"If the Shanghai Steel Federation is going to go to the new high position of 30 yuan with the blessing of Brother Su's seat, and after all the chips on the spot are released, then I have to say, it can really be taken a look at."

"Only relying on the two hard-core concepts of 'Fuxing Department' and 'Internet Finance', the price of 30 yuan is almost the limit. Before the Su brothers appeared on the stage, they should also agree with 30 yuan, and the bottom is three times the height. I think At the position of 30 yuan, if we open up space, I am afraid that there will be no other positive incentives, it will be difficult!"

"Overall, too high a height depends on the joint efforts of market capital and emotional changes of the Shanghai Steel Federation every step of the way."

"But no matter what, the check from the Shanghai Steel Federation has undoubtedly become a symbol of the Su Brothers' seat, and it is truly comparable to the battle when Chief Xu managed Yuzhou Beer."

"That's right, even if you're watching from the sidelines, seeing Brother Su enter and exit the Shanghai Steel Federation twice, reaping several times the profits, it's still exciting and breathtaking!"

"However, most people really can't hold this ticket."

"Let's not talk about others, I went in and out three times, but I didn't get caught. The total profit was less than 30%, which can be described as miserable."

"Uh... 30% profit is miserable? I have relayed more times than you, and the total profit is less than 20%."

"You've eaten the floor!"

The news in the group continued to be refreshed. Su Yu glanced at it for a while, but did not speak, and directly closed the chat box in the group.

After the establishment of a private equity institution, as the amount of funds he traded increased, and as the influence of his seat increased, it was no longer easy for him to speak publicly.

After all, at this time...

His slightest remarks may be magnified by the market, thus causing him some unnecessary troubles.

If he really wants to speak up and express some of his thoughts and opinions, he feels that the data of the dragon and tiger list revealed by the seats alone is enough.

After leaving the group chat.

Before getting off work, Su Yu continued to learn about the changes in Jingda Investment's main fund holdings from Lin Antu.

Knowing that the other party has indeed significantly reduced their holdings in Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, and also confirmed that their operating strategy is correct, they left the company after get off work with Li Meng.

In the evening, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Index, and ChiNext Index rebounded for two consecutive days.

The investment sentiment of the entire market has obviously picked up a lot.

Like Shanghai Steel Union, Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information...these core hot stocks on the GEM, the discussion continues to rise, and more and more optimistic investors; Investors holding shares in financial, real estate, non-ferrous metals, steel, coal and other main board heavyweight sectors are still full of complaints and anger.

of course……

For example, today's sector as a whole rose by more than 3%, driving the entire "big consumption" rebound in the liquor sector.

Today, they are elated, and many investors and large financial institutions who are stuck in this sector have breathed a sigh of relief, giving birth to a lot of hope for a reversal of the predicament.

Moreover, thanks to the excellent performance of many stocks in the sector.

The core, such as Qianzhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jincheng Fenjiu and other first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, have been touted by numerous securities companies and investment institutions in buying research reports, and there is even an investment analysis by "Anhe Securities" The teacher, after a long analysis in the research report, directly shouted the slogan of "ten times in five years" for these first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, which attracted the attention of many investors.

"Ten times in five years, these analysts really dare to say it!"

Li Meng read a lot of institutional research reports on the liquor sector, and complained speechlessly.

Su Yu chuckled, and said: "Institutional research reports, some data can be used as a reference, but if you really believe their buying and selling suggestions, then you are really stupid. Speaking of it... It is not impossible for the liquor sector to 'ten times in five years' , and these words... it is possible to put it on any stock in the entire market."

"After all, in the future, there is no certainty, so you can say whatever you want."

"No matter how powerful an investment analyst is, they can't see through it and predict the market situation and industry changes one or two years in advance, let alone five years?"

"Current market institutions invest, and 99.9% of fund managers are just staring at quarterly and annual reports."

"The speculation is only three months or half a year's expectation."

"Who would be stupid enough to look at three or five years? After all, even the company itself doesn't know what its business situation will be like in three or five years."

"Put it on the stock price..."

"Even if the performance has been growing continuously for five years, the stock price trend in the market may be cut in half first, and then rise several times."

Li Meng listened to his words, smiled, and said: "You mean that these research reports and trading opinions are not credible, and in fact, most of the long-term investments in the entire market are just fortune-telling!"

"Yes!" Su Yu said with a smile, "Long-term investment and short-term investment are actually probability investments. The so-called value investment and stock price speculation are essentially...they all lead to the same goal by different routes."

"Is there really value investing in this market?" Li Meng asked after a pause.

Su Yu thought for a while and replied: "Well... For investors, it is belief. If you believe in it, then it has it. If you think that all investments are essentially probability investments, then it doesn't. "

"If not, how can Berkshire's success be explained?" Li Meng asked in confusion.

Su Yu replied with a smile: "Thanks to the growth of the U.S. stock market and the continuous improvement of national strength, when the macro environment is always good, the business risk and profitability of the company are relatively optimistic. At this time, individuals or Fund managers can achieve cycle-smoothing results through excellent position control and stock selection, but of course... Over the years, fund managers who can essentially do this are rare in the first place."

"Preferred stocks." Li Meng said, "This is an explanation of value investing!"

Su Yu replied: "That's not necessarily true. In your opinion... what kind of corporate stocks do you think are considered excellent?"

Li Mengmeng thought about it, and said: "The management is stable, the management has a broad vision and is down-to-earth, and the wealth indicators are healthy, and they are much higher than those of the peers. They have core competitiveness and a wide moat..."

"For example?" Su Yu continued to ask.

"A-shares, Qianzhou Moutai, Yangtze Power, Gree Electric, Kewan Real Estate..." Li Meng blurted out, giving examples of more than a dozen stocks.

Su Yu nodded with a smile, and said: "According to the fundamental situation you mentioned, from the so-called corporate moats such as industry status, product pricing power, core technology, and brand influence, as well as historically excellent financial indicators, and stable operating performance. Come to see, these ... really are excellent stocks."

"But it can only show that their historical performance and historical performance are very good."

"And we invest in the future."

"Take Qianzhou Moutai, which you think has a unique business model and a very wide brand moat, as an example. Looking forward to the future, can its performance continue to grow?"

"Of course not!" Li Meng said, "There is no company whose performance growth rate can be maintained forever."

Su Yu nodded and said: "Yes, all excellence is relative. No matter how excellent a company is in history, its performance will stall and its fundamentals will deteriorate. The so-called always seeking excellent corporate investment and practicing value investment, this is true. It was originally a false proposition, how do you know that it will continue to be excellent in the future and the intrinsic stock value will continue to increase?"

"So, in my opinion, stocks that have historically outperformed..."

"The only thing that can give people some comfort is that it will make investors feel that its future performance will be worse than its historical performance, and there is just a little more probability of continued excellent performance."

"Looking at Balao's investment history, he has been trial and error for decades, and he is only using the principle of selecting stocks with 'excellent historical performance' to increase the certainty probability of future investment. Have you never seen Balao invest in emerging industry stocks without historical performance? That's the reason."

"But following this point, in fact, sometimes you just let yourself fall into an 'investment trap'."

"When you accept the concept of value investing, when you believe that a company or a stock will always be excellent, then when its performance stalls and the stock price drops sharply, you will not notice it and will always I believe that the intrinsic value of the company has not changed, but the illusion that the market is wrong. Under this illusion, generally an investor will not stop losses in time, but on the contrary, he will continue to increase his position with a high probability, because He believes that value will eventually come back.”

"So, in my opinion, for the average investor."

"Especially for individual investors whose fault tolerance rate is far lower than that of large institutions, value investing is an evil path."

"When you fall in love with stocks, the final result is not a breakup, but you will often be completely hurt by it, and your faith will eventually collapse. In my opinion... any 'value investment stock that is highly praised by market investors ', its inner essence has the demeanor of a 'scum girl'!"

(End of this chapter)