The investment era of rebirth
Chapter 26 The Nature of Stock Investing
Chapter 26 The Nature of Stock Investing
Su Yu didn't care much about the various rumors about him in the online foreign exchange and gold trading financial circles.
After all, for a trader, fame is not a meal, only his own ability is excellent, and he can continue to reap profits from the turbulent financial market.
This is the most important thing, and it is also the real foundation of standing.
After simply browsing the financial information in the morning, Su Yu replied on the Penguin account. Zhou Jianming, the general manager of Huaguo Operations of Yingxiu Securities, asked him if he had received a text message to activate the various permissions of the account, and then set his sights on the stock market that was about to open , and the stocks you care about.
Huaqingbao and Wangsu Technology still have no sudden positive or negative releases.
The attention of the two stocks before the market is still in a state of one cold and one hot. Hua Qingbao tops the list of top ten hot stocks, while Netspeed Technology is rarely paid attention to and discussed.
At 9:15, the two cities began to call for bidding.
Huaqingbao opened slightly higher today after yesterday's emotional rest and stock price adjustment, and then the bidding continued to rise, and finally opened 1.25% higher; Netspeed Technology continued its usual deserted style during the call auction period, only 52 lots were sold The list finally opened 0.12% lower.
At 9:30, the two cities officially started trading.
Hua Qingbao first followed the high-opening sentiment to go long, quickly pulled up for a while, and then began to gradually dive, falling into a shocking trend of rushing up and down; Netspeed Technology was stable as usual, under the state of countless small orders bidding transactions , closely following the fluctuations of the GEM index, without independent market and trend.
Su Yu opened his stock trading account and looked at the 150 million funds lying in the account.
Continue to use small orders to continuously undertake the selling orders of Netspeed Technology.
At 10:33, through continuous operations, Su Yu basically consumed all the 150 million funds in his personal account, and bought all the stocks of Wangsu Technology, holding a total of 6 shares at an average cost price of 24.46 yuan.
When he bought all of Netspeed Technology...
Until the close in the afternoon, Netspeed Technology did not show any performance, and even fell slightly, closing at the price of 24.39.
Faced with the continuous downturn of Netspeed Technology and the loss of the agency's wealth management account for three consecutive trading days.
Su Yu still didn't care.
On the contrary, one of the owners of his wealth management account for clients, Liu Tianshui was confused after opening the stock account and taking a look at the holdings. He couldn't figure out why Su Yu bought this stock at all.
However, even if he had doubts in his heart, he did not choose to interfere with Su Yu at this time.
Instead, he continued to choose to believe in Su Yu and remained silent.
After Wangsu Technology fell three times in a row, on Thursday, April 4, with the performance of the market downturn, Wangsu Technology failed to rise, but once again set a trend of four consecutive declines, which made Su Yu's agency financial account , lost four days in a row.
After the market closes...
Liu Tianshui glanced at the account and still couldn't figure out the reason for Su Yu's holding positions, but he still remained silent.
As for Su Yu, browsing all kinds of information in the market, he is still full of confidence and patience for the fundamental changes and position logic of Netspeed Technology.
"Su Yu, I invite you to join the VIP customer group of our sales department, please pass it."
While Su Yu was hanging out in online forums, Liang Bin sent him a message.
Su Yu replied with the word 'um', then looked at the group invitation message that popped up, and clicked agree.
Entering the group, Su Yu found that the entire business department and all the high-net-worth clients were basically in it, among which Liu Tianshui and Sun Tianhong, who had interacted with him, were impressively listed.
Of course, there are no customers in the group.
There are also several major investment consultants, brokers, and managers in charge of the customer department in the sales department.
"Zhao Investment Gu, in recent days, the market has been very weak. This is in stark contrast to last week's strong rebound. Stocks such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, Ping An Group, and Qianzhou Moutai have basically fallen again. Back to the original point, is this the end of the market rally?"
"Many votes not only fell back to the original point, but even hit a new low."
"That's right, do so-called core assets like Huaguo Petroleum, Shenhua Coal, Huaguo Baosteel, etc. have a future?"
"Is there any hope for the broader market to reach 2500 points?"
"How long will the bear market last, and when will the bull market come? I heard that the Federal Reserve is preparing to withdraw from the QE program and is planning to raise interest rates in the future. Does this mean that our stock market has to fall?"
"Zhao Investment Gu once said that bank stocks were lower than 0.8 times PB, which is absolutely underestimated, and you can increase your position, but now the valuations of several major banks such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huajian Bank, and Huanong Bank are all around 0.7 times PB. It’s still falling, what’s going on here?”
"Also, I found that the trend of the GEM has been stronger than that of the main board recently. Does this mean that the future market is on the GEM stocks?"
"The concept of 'mobile games' that has been hyped up recently, does it have a future?"
"Huaqingbao fell into a sharp drop again today, and the high point has retraced more than 12%. I bought a lot at a high level. What should I do now, should I sell it?"
"Stocks in the mobile phone industry chain, do they have a future?"
"I have a position in Xingwei Communications, how about this stock?"
Su Yu opened the chat box in the group, and saw countless questions presented in front of his eyes.
"Investing in the stock market is a race of endurance." Among the numerous questions, Zhao Investment Advisor in the group replied, "I insist that the stocks of big banks with 0.7 times PB have investment value and can be invested for a long time. Whether it will rise in the short term or not, no one knows, but in the long run, I believe this must be the bottom range, investing in this position, there is a high probability that you will be able to get a good return on investment in the future.”
"As for the Fed's exit from QE, and even the impact of interest rate hike expectations on the country..."
"In this regard, the macro analysts of our securities companies have several research and analysis reports, which are very clear, and I can share them with the group."
With that said, he shared a link.
"Also..." Zhao Tougu paused, and continued, "The overall PE of the ChiNext Board is significantly higher than the PE valuation of the entire market, and the investment risk is very high."
"The recent trend of the GEM is obviously stronger than that of the main board."
"It is mainly due to the dominance of hot money in the market, which is supported by the hype of many concepts and attracts retail investors in the market to follow suit."
"However, without the guidance of long-term funds, hot money alone cannot support the long-term market. I believe this irrational hype will end soon, and then... the market will return to the normal investment environment. The core blue chips , as well as many core asset stocks, will also usher in a revaluation.”
"The hype that builds on the bubble will not last long, as history has proven."
"So, I'm not optimistic about the ChiNext market, and I hope all customers will participate cautiously."
"As for the analysis of individual stocks, heavyweights such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, and Ping An Group have been strongly promoted by me. Now the fundamentals of these stocks are still excellent, and the valuations are very low. I am still optimistic about other stocks. Please pay attention to the relevant research reports of our securities companies.”
After expressing his point of view, Zhao Tougu stopped speaking.
Su Yu nodded slightly. Although he disagreed with many of Zhao Investment Advisor's views in his heart, he still admired his investment strategy's overall view.
Indeed, investing is a long-distance endurance race, not a sprint.
The short-term conceptual pursuit of hot spots seems to be lively, but in the long run, there are very few people who can continue to make profits through this short-term pursuit.
and so……
For ordinary investors, long-term investment within the margin of safety is the only magic weapon for success.
But at this moment, the domestic investment market is not mature.
Whether it is a retail investor group with a small amount of capital, or a market with a capital amount of millions or tens of millions, or even many private equity institutions and fund institutions, they all pay attention to short-term effects and cannot bear an excessively long holding period. The continuous concept hype in the market and the short-term chasing effect.
"So... all the stocks on the GEM cannot be held for a long time?"
"Hey, it seems that Hua Qingbao won't go back up again."
"Indeed, even if blue-chip stocks in the large market have fallen for a month in a row, they will only fall by 7 or 8 points. Concept stocks are easy when they rise, and even easier when they fall. I also took over Hua Qingbao at a high position. Losing 10% to me, looking at it this way...it's still a safe blue chip."
"But even if the blue chip stocks fall slowly, the long-term cumulative decline is terrifying!"
"Yes, cutting flesh with a blunt knife is more uncomfortable than cutting flesh with a sharp knife."
"GEM stocks are really worse than blue-chip stocks on the main board? Why do bad stocks keep rising, but good stocks keep falling?"
"Expectation!" Seeing this, Su Yu couldn't help but reply, "I don't think stocks are good or bad, only the difference in future expectations."
"What do you mean?" Someone continued to ask.
Su Yu thought about it, and felt that he was no longer an employee of the sales department, and he had nothing to worry about.
So he continued to reply: "The core essence of stock trading is the speculation about future expectations, and the reason for the rise and fall of stocks is also due to the changes in market investors' expectations for the future of stocks, and the buying and selling behaviors made by them."
"Blue chip stocks are considered excellent because of their stable performance and development."
"But precisely because its performance and corporate development are becoming mature and stable, it is difficult for it to exceed market expectations. Therefore, its stock price can only fluctuate around the market's average valuation level, and it is difficult to have a sharp rise or fall. Trends happen."
"Many three-no concept stocks are considered rubbish because of their performance and corporate development, which are often full of uncertainties."
"Of course, also because of this uncertainty, and the low market expectations for it."
"Then, once the market has some positive news that can promote the fundamental changes of these stocks, its stock price will have a lot of room for speculation."
"Take Hua Qingbao as an example..."
"From its historical performance and company fundamental analysis, it does not belong to the list of excellent stocks that the public thinks."
"However, with the unprecedented surge in the entire smart phone terminal market and the broad prospect of the potential incremental market for 'mobile games', it has the possibility of rapidly changing its performance and ushering in the possibility of huge development for the company."
"And with these possible expectations, this is why the stock price has skyrocketed."
"According to what you said, can Huaqingbao still go up?" There were customers in the group who were trapped in this stock and asked anxiously.
Su Yu replied: "It depends on whether Huaqingbao can rise at this stage, and whether its current stock price fully reflects future expectations."
"What do you think of this?" someone wondered.
Su Yu continued to reply: "For example, is there any new change in the industry's positive changes that promote its fundamental changes, such as its ability to release performance under the changes in industry fundamentals, has it been misvalued... The research on stocks does not just stop at On the K-line, it’s not just about market sentiment, but full market research is required.”
"Only in this way can we make a correct judgment and ensure that we don't panic during the stock holding stage."
Zhao Tougu in the group was a little surprised when he heard Su Yu's words, and typed back with a smile: "What this gentleman said 'there are no good or bad stocks, only the difference in expectations' has some truth, the stock price is indeed It is a performance that reflects the fundamentals and expectations of the company."
"But it is necessary to realistically judge whether the current stock price of a stock fully reflects future expectations."
"That's a huge difficulty."
"Ordinary investors do not have the research capabilities of institutional investors, and it is even more impossible to see the real situation of many stocks with poor fundamentals. They can only speculate according to market sentiment."
"So, once you get involved, it's difficult to get out at the right time."
"This has become the source of losses for ordinary investors."
"In view of this situation, I think the investment path that is really suitable for ordinary investors is to embrace blue chips and make long-term investments within a margin of safety. It is most appropriate."
"I don't quite agree with what Zhao Investment Gu said." Su Yu said, "The difficulty of cognition, whether it is a blue chip stock or a concept stock, actually exists, and a company's historical performance does not mean that it will perform well in the future."
"So, for the margin of safety thing..."
"I don't think that as long as it's venture capital, it doesn't exist."
"I also think that blue chip, concept stock investment, short-term and long-term investment, in essence, there is no distinction between good and bad, it is only related to investors' risk appetite and personal investment style."
With the deepening of the topic, the differences between the two people's views on investment philosophy have become larger and larger, and there are many differences.
However, as the differences increased, Zhao Tou Gu felt that Su Yu's insights and experience in investment and market were more thorough than himself.
This surprised him, a gold-medal investment consultant in the sales department, and was even more shocked.
Can't help but hurriedly inquire about Su Yu's identity.
On the other hand, all the old customers in the group, after seeing this new customer member who joined in, they were able to debate for so long with the gold medal investment advisor of the sales department in terms of market investment, and some of the ideas they said were really simple, Knowing that, they all benefited a lot, and they were secretly surprised for a while, and they were all curious about Su Yu's identity.
"Sir, your theory is solid, but investment... always has to be put into practice." When the discussion between Su Yu and Zhao Investment Consultant came to an end, a customer in the group couldn't help but said, " Can you tell me which industry, which sector, and which stock you are optimistic about?"
(End of this chapter)
Su Yu didn't care much about the various rumors about him in the online foreign exchange and gold trading financial circles.
After all, for a trader, fame is not a meal, only his own ability is excellent, and he can continue to reap profits from the turbulent financial market.
This is the most important thing, and it is also the real foundation of standing.
After simply browsing the financial information in the morning, Su Yu replied on the Penguin account. Zhou Jianming, the general manager of Huaguo Operations of Yingxiu Securities, asked him if he had received a text message to activate the various permissions of the account, and then set his sights on the stock market that was about to open , and the stocks you care about.
Huaqingbao and Wangsu Technology still have no sudden positive or negative releases.
The attention of the two stocks before the market is still in a state of one cold and one hot. Hua Qingbao tops the list of top ten hot stocks, while Netspeed Technology is rarely paid attention to and discussed.
At 9:15, the two cities began to call for bidding.
Huaqingbao opened slightly higher today after yesterday's emotional rest and stock price adjustment, and then the bidding continued to rise, and finally opened 1.25% higher; Netspeed Technology continued its usual deserted style during the call auction period, only 52 lots were sold The list finally opened 0.12% lower.
At 9:30, the two cities officially started trading.
Hua Qingbao first followed the high-opening sentiment to go long, quickly pulled up for a while, and then began to gradually dive, falling into a shocking trend of rushing up and down; Netspeed Technology was stable as usual, under the state of countless small orders bidding transactions , closely following the fluctuations of the GEM index, without independent market and trend.
Su Yu opened his stock trading account and looked at the 150 million funds lying in the account.
Continue to use small orders to continuously undertake the selling orders of Netspeed Technology.
At 10:33, through continuous operations, Su Yu basically consumed all the 150 million funds in his personal account, and bought all the stocks of Wangsu Technology, holding a total of 6 shares at an average cost price of 24.46 yuan.
When he bought all of Netspeed Technology...
Until the close in the afternoon, Netspeed Technology did not show any performance, and even fell slightly, closing at the price of 24.39.
Faced with the continuous downturn of Netspeed Technology and the loss of the agency's wealth management account for three consecutive trading days.
Su Yu still didn't care.
On the contrary, one of the owners of his wealth management account for clients, Liu Tianshui was confused after opening the stock account and taking a look at the holdings. He couldn't figure out why Su Yu bought this stock at all.
However, even if he had doubts in his heart, he did not choose to interfere with Su Yu at this time.
Instead, he continued to choose to believe in Su Yu and remained silent.
After Wangsu Technology fell three times in a row, on Thursday, April 4, with the performance of the market downturn, Wangsu Technology failed to rise, but once again set a trend of four consecutive declines, which made Su Yu's agency financial account , lost four days in a row.
After the market closes...
Liu Tianshui glanced at the account and still couldn't figure out the reason for Su Yu's holding positions, but he still remained silent.
As for Su Yu, browsing all kinds of information in the market, he is still full of confidence and patience for the fundamental changes and position logic of Netspeed Technology.
"Su Yu, I invite you to join the VIP customer group of our sales department, please pass it."
While Su Yu was hanging out in online forums, Liang Bin sent him a message.
Su Yu replied with the word 'um', then looked at the group invitation message that popped up, and clicked agree.
Entering the group, Su Yu found that the entire business department and all the high-net-worth clients were basically in it, among which Liu Tianshui and Sun Tianhong, who had interacted with him, were impressively listed.
Of course, there are no customers in the group.
There are also several major investment consultants, brokers, and managers in charge of the customer department in the sales department.
"Zhao Investment Gu, in recent days, the market has been very weak. This is in stark contrast to last week's strong rebound. Stocks such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, Ping An Group, and Qianzhou Moutai have basically fallen again. Back to the original point, is this the end of the market rally?"
"Many votes not only fell back to the original point, but even hit a new low."
"That's right, do so-called core assets like Huaguo Petroleum, Shenhua Coal, Huaguo Baosteel, etc. have a future?"
"Is there any hope for the broader market to reach 2500 points?"
"How long will the bear market last, and when will the bull market come? I heard that the Federal Reserve is preparing to withdraw from the QE program and is planning to raise interest rates in the future. Does this mean that our stock market has to fall?"
"Zhao Investment Gu once said that bank stocks were lower than 0.8 times PB, which is absolutely underestimated, and you can increase your position, but now the valuations of several major banks such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huajian Bank, and Huanong Bank are all around 0.7 times PB. It’s still falling, what’s going on here?”
"Also, I found that the trend of the GEM has been stronger than that of the main board recently. Does this mean that the future market is on the GEM stocks?"
"The concept of 'mobile games' that has been hyped up recently, does it have a future?"
"Huaqingbao fell into a sharp drop again today, and the high point has retraced more than 12%. I bought a lot at a high level. What should I do now, should I sell it?"
"Stocks in the mobile phone industry chain, do they have a future?"
"I have a position in Xingwei Communications, how about this stock?"
Su Yu opened the chat box in the group, and saw countless questions presented in front of his eyes.
"Investing in the stock market is a race of endurance." Among the numerous questions, Zhao Investment Advisor in the group replied, "I insist that the stocks of big banks with 0.7 times PB have investment value and can be invested for a long time. Whether it will rise in the short term or not, no one knows, but in the long run, I believe this must be the bottom range, investing in this position, there is a high probability that you will be able to get a good return on investment in the future.”
"As for the Fed's exit from QE, and even the impact of interest rate hike expectations on the country..."
"In this regard, the macro analysts of our securities companies have several research and analysis reports, which are very clear, and I can share them with the group."
With that said, he shared a link.
"Also..." Zhao Tougu paused, and continued, "The overall PE of the ChiNext Board is significantly higher than the PE valuation of the entire market, and the investment risk is very high."
"The recent trend of the GEM is obviously stronger than that of the main board."
"It is mainly due to the dominance of hot money in the market, which is supported by the hype of many concepts and attracts retail investors in the market to follow suit."
"However, without the guidance of long-term funds, hot money alone cannot support the long-term market. I believe this irrational hype will end soon, and then... the market will return to the normal investment environment. The core blue chips , as well as many core asset stocks, will also usher in a revaluation.”
"The hype that builds on the bubble will not last long, as history has proven."
"So, I'm not optimistic about the ChiNext market, and I hope all customers will participate cautiously."
"As for the analysis of individual stocks, heavyweights such as Chinese Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, and Ping An Group have been strongly promoted by me. Now the fundamentals of these stocks are still excellent, and the valuations are very low. I am still optimistic about other stocks. Please pay attention to the relevant research reports of our securities companies.”
After expressing his point of view, Zhao Tougu stopped speaking.
Su Yu nodded slightly. Although he disagreed with many of Zhao Investment Advisor's views in his heart, he still admired his investment strategy's overall view.
Indeed, investing is a long-distance endurance race, not a sprint.
The short-term conceptual pursuit of hot spots seems to be lively, but in the long run, there are very few people who can continue to make profits through this short-term pursuit.
and so……
For ordinary investors, long-term investment within the margin of safety is the only magic weapon for success.
But at this moment, the domestic investment market is not mature.
Whether it is a retail investor group with a small amount of capital, or a market with a capital amount of millions or tens of millions, or even many private equity institutions and fund institutions, they all pay attention to short-term effects and cannot bear an excessively long holding period. The continuous concept hype in the market and the short-term chasing effect.
"So... all the stocks on the GEM cannot be held for a long time?"
"Hey, it seems that Hua Qingbao won't go back up again."
"Indeed, even if blue-chip stocks in the large market have fallen for a month in a row, they will only fall by 7 or 8 points. Concept stocks are easy when they rise, and even easier when they fall. I also took over Hua Qingbao at a high position. Losing 10% to me, looking at it this way...it's still a safe blue chip."
"But even if the blue chip stocks fall slowly, the long-term cumulative decline is terrifying!"
"Yes, cutting flesh with a blunt knife is more uncomfortable than cutting flesh with a sharp knife."
"GEM stocks are really worse than blue-chip stocks on the main board? Why do bad stocks keep rising, but good stocks keep falling?"
"Expectation!" Seeing this, Su Yu couldn't help but reply, "I don't think stocks are good or bad, only the difference in future expectations."
"What do you mean?" Someone continued to ask.
Su Yu thought about it, and felt that he was no longer an employee of the sales department, and he had nothing to worry about.
So he continued to reply: "The core essence of stock trading is the speculation about future expectations, and the reason for the rise and fall of stocks is also due to the changes in market investors' expectations for the future of stocks, and the buying and selling behaviors made by them."
"Blue chip stocks are considered excellent because of their stable performance and development."
"But precisely because its performance and corporate development are becoming mature and stable, it is difficult for it to exceed market expectations. Therefore, its stock price can only fluctuate around the market's average valuation level, and it is difficult to have a sharp rise or fall. Trends happen."
"Many three-no concept stocks are considered rubbish because of their performance and corporate development, which are often full of uncertainties."
"Of course, also because of this uncertainty, and the low market expectations for it."
"Then, once the market has some positive news that can promote the fundamental changes of these stocks, its stock price will have a lot of room for speculation."
"Take Hua Qingbao as an example..."
"From its historical performance and company fundamental analysis, it does not belong to the list of excellent stocks that the public thinks."
"However, with the unprecedented surge in the entire smart phone terminal market and the broad prospect of the potential incremental market for 'mobile games', it has the possibility of rapidly changing its performance and ushering in the possibility of huge development for the company."
"And with these possible expectations, this is why the stock price has skyrocketed."
"According to what you said, can Huaqingbao still go up?" There were customers in the group who were trapped in this stock and asked anxiously.
Su Yu replied: "It depends on whether Huaqingbao can rise at this stage, and whether its current stock price fully reflects future expectations."
"What do you think of this?" someone wondered.
Su Yu continued to reply: "For example, is there any new change in the industry's positive changes that promote its fundamental changes, such as its ability to release performance under the changes in industry fundamentals, has it been misvalued... The research on stocks does not just stop at On the K-line, it’s not just about market sentiment, but full market research is required.”
"Only in this way can we make a correct judgment and ensure that we don't panic during the stock holding stage."
Zhao Tougu in the group was a little surprised when he heard Su Yu's words, and typed back with a smile: "What this gentleman said 'there are no good or bad stocks, only the difference in expectations' has some truth, the stock price is indeed It is a performance that reflects the fundamentals and expectations of the company."
"But it is necessary to realistically judge whether the current stock price of a stock fully reflects future expectations."
"That's a huge difficulty."
"Ordinary investors do not have the research capabilities of institutional investors, and it is even more impossible to see the real situation of many stocks with poor fundamentals. They can only speculate according to market sentiment."
"So, once you get involved, it's difficult to get out at the right time."
"This has become the source of losses for ordinary investors."
"In view of this situation, I think the investment path that is really suitable for ordinary investors is to embrace blue chips and make long-term investments within a margin of safety. It is most appropriate."
"I don't quite agree with what Zhao Investment Gu said." Su Yu said, "The difficulty of cognition, whether it is a blue chip stock or a concept stock, actually exists, and a company's historical performance does not mean that it will perform well in the future."
"So, for the margin of safety thing..."
"I don't think that as long as it's venture capital, it doesn't exist."
"I also think that blue chip, concept stock investment, short-term and long-term investment, in essence, there is no distinction between good and bad, it is only related to investors' risk appetite and personal investment style."
With the deepening of the topic, the differences between the two people's views on investment philosophy have become larger and larger, and there are many differences.
However, as the differences increased, Zhao Tou Gu felt that Su Yu's insights and experience in investment and market were more thorough than himself.
This surprised him, a gold-medal investment consultant in the sales department, and was even more shocked.
Can't help but hurriedly inquire about Su Yu's identity.
On the other hand, all the old customers in the group, after seeing this new customer member who joined in, they were able to debate for so long with the gold medal investment advisor of the sales department in terms of market investment, and some of the ideas they said were really simple, Knowing that, they all benefited a lot, and they were secretly surprised for a while, and they were all curious about Su Yu's identity.
"Sir, your theory is solid, but investment... always has to be put into practice." When the discussion between Su Yu and Zhao Investment Consultant came to an end, a customer in the group couldn't help but said, " Can you tell me which industry, which sector, and which stock you are optimistic about?"
(End of this chapter)
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