The investment era of rebirth

Su Yu pondered for a while, and replied: "In the pilot program of preferred shares, the first ones to eat crabs must be state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, so the directionality of this concept is basically the same as the directionality of state-owned enterprise reform."

"As for the recovery of the real estate economy..."

"Although various macro-policies have been fully liberalized in terms of real estate, in terms of specific market reactions, it will take time to respond to the digestion of inventory, the boost in demand, and the return of national housing prices to the growth channel. It is said that there are expectations, but in the short term, the fundamental improvement and performance of related companies will definitely not be able to keep up. Coupled with the particularity of the real estate industry, related real estate companies usually lag behind the market by half a year to a year in terms of performance confirmation .”

"So, in the direction of real estate, expectations are strong and there is a rebound demand, but the space may not necessarily be so high."

"You mean... don't we go in this direction?" Li Meng asked.

"No, do it!" Su Yu continued to reply, "Since the country has returned to the development path with 'urbanization construction' as the core in terms of macroeconomic regulation and control, and has liberalized the real estate industry, then the market's demand for this field 'Low expectations' will gradually turn into 'high expectations', and due to the previous low expectations of the market, the valuation of the entire market in this regard has been greatly compressed, and the PE valuation of the entire 'real estate economy industry chain' is basically 10 times , or even less than 8 times, that is to say, the valuation spring has been compressed to the limit, and once expectations change, the entire industry chain has a lot of room for flexibility.”

"It's just that we need to streamline our thinking when investing in this direction."

"Let's streamline your thinking?" Li Meng didn't quite understand.

Su Yu smiled and continued: "The core of the stock hype is the difference in expectations, and the support core of the stock price is the improvement of the company's fundamentals and real performance growth."

"There is a strong difference in expectations, but no ability to deliver."

"Then, the stock will be reduced to pure conceptual hype. After the turbulent main capital hype, the stock price will fall back to the original point due to the filling of the expected difference."

"Correspondingly, when a stock's performance is stable, but the market's future expectations are poor, then the stock's valuation will be repeatedly compressed, often with performance growth, but the stock price does not rise, or even falls."

"And if we want to obtain excess returns in the market, we have to start from both the expected difference and the performance growth."

"Only when the two complement each other can we get out of the trending big bull stocks."

"Conversely, look at the 'real estate economy industry chain' we discussed, which occupies a very large proportion in the macroeconomic development route of 'urbanization construction'. In the process of changing expectations and changing policies from suppression to relaxation, and even encouragement, While the entire industry is expected to change, how will Lilan in the industry chain present itself? In the entire industry chain, which link will be the first to explode in demand?"

When Li Meng heard Su Yu say this, the hazy thoughts in his mind instantly became clear, and he said, "What do you mean, let's carry out layout and hype in the order of the entire industry chain and performance expectations?"

"Yes!" Su Yu said with a smile, "At the same time, through this main line, concepts such as 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'priority share pilot' are connected in series."

"As for the backdoor restructuring under the suspension of the IPO review you mentioned earlier, and the main concepts such as 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain' that performed well last year and even at the beginning of this year, there is not much room for differences in future expectations. , it’s okay to pay attention to it appropriately, but I don’t think it’s the main breakthrough direction for our next operations.”

"Do you still insist that the subsequent reversal of the market will form a pattern of [-]-[-] split?" Li Meng asked.

Su Yu nodded and said: "From the perspective of the difference in market expectations, this is inevitable. Last year, the small and medium-sized boards and the ChiNext board rose well. Various investment institutions in the market and the majority of retail investors are concerned about the 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain'. The future expectations of these two core main lines have been pulled to the highest point. Although the current market has dropped a lot compared to the high point in November and December last year, overall, the popularity of these two core main lines For stocks, the valuation is still about 11 to 12 times the market’s average valuation.”

"Market speculation, too consistent expectations, often have little space."

"Consistency is good, consistency is bad, and there is no essential difference."

"According to what I said before, the core areas of the two major small and medium-sized boards and the GEM, 'Mobile Internet' and 'Apple Industry Chain', are currently full of future expectations and are waiting for the process of performance fulfillment. If the performance is not as good as expected, the stock price will Falling back to the original point of last year, many votes have already been cut in half, and then they will continue to make up for the decline. If the performance generally exceeds expectations, the two core lines will once again have a difference in expectations and usher in investment opportunities. "

"If you intervene before this, the uncertainty will be great."

"Because, in the case of already high expectations, it is quite difficult to raise market expectations further and create new space."

"In contrast to the direction of the main board, many areas that were suppressed in all directions before."

"If you gradually change from extremely pessimistic future expectations to no longer pessimistic, even normal, or optimistic expectations, then the valuation increase under the expected change will bring about extremely high flexibility in stock prices, and even huge profits in investment. Chance."

"Understood!" Li Meng said, "This is actually the essence of market investors' fear and greed. The higher the price rises, the more optimistic, and the lower the price, the more pessimistic."

Su Yu replied with a smile: "Yes, the stock market is like a pendulum. Under the guidance of market sentiment, no matter whether it goes up or down, it will be excessive, and this effect is also the same on the specific performance of industries and individual stocks. Optimistic Sometimes, optimism is too much, and when pessimism is too pessimistic."

"The pendulum effect." Li Meng smiled and said, "This metaphor is really good, then... let's guide the operation in the direction of the 'real estate economy industry chain', but... follow the industry chain you mentioned From the perspective of demand and the conductivity of Lilan's outbreak, which link is the strongest in the current entire real estate economic industry chain?"

"That depends on the biggest difference in expectations, the biggest room for imagination of demand, the biggest policy tilt, and where is the best story." Su Yu said with a smile, "At the current stage, in the entire pan-real estate economy, it is obvious that infrastructure-related stocks are The strongest link has the best expectations, and it also has strong policy support.”

"Infrastructure construction!" Li Meng heard that Su Yu's most promising direction turned out to be infrastructure construction. He was stunned for a while before he understood, "You want to say 'New Silk Road'!"

"Yes!" Su Yu nodded and said, "The main line that can resonate with the macro policy is a good main line for a huge market. If it is hyped, there will be no policy risks. Moreover, in the 'Great Country Infrastructure', Driven by various powerful macro-policies such as 'big country heavy weapon', 'further accelerating urbanization', 'rural revitalization', 'every village has access to roads', the demand in this field is essentially in the explosive stage, and it also belongs to the Part of the 'real estate economy'."

"certainly……"

Su Yu paused, and continued: "Infrastructure and real estate are a whole, and they all belong to the macroeconomic strategic development of 'urbanization'. Now, there are policy support in this field, and huge demands follow one after another. As a matter of fact, there are stories of the 'New Silk Road' to tell, and the valuation has been compressed to an extremely low position by the market, and the market does not have much future expectations in this regard. Once the hype starts, the space is quite broad. "

"But the market has also speculated in this direction before." Li Meng said, "But at that time, market investors did not admit it, and did not follow suit and continue to attack. Finally, this strong policy attribute, the main concept from top to bottom, also It's over."

"That was the timing of the market before, and it was not mature." Su Yu said, "At that time, the market was in a unilateral downward channel that had just begun, and various funds gathered in the small and medium-sized board, the GEM's 'mobile Internet', 'smart The two main lines of the mobile phone industry chain have not yet ebbed, so naturally there is no spare capacity to do the main line of the "New Silk Road", and the market's valuation spring in this regard at that time was not compressed enough, leaving room for flexibility Insufficient, given the overall low expectations, the valuation at that time was not enough to attract a large number of institutional investors to participate in the market on a large scale.”

"But it's different now..."

"The market valuation has been compressed to the limit, the loosening of the real estate industry in terms of macro policies, the clear policy of accelerating urbanization, the clear implementation of the policy of rural revitalization, village-to-village roads, high-speed rail, high-speed, and various infrastructure constructions , the rapid and large-scale advancement of the big country project, and the further clarification and setting of the 'New Silk Road' policy."

"Valuation advantage, demand expansion, policy support, the market has completed its last drop, the bottom has reversed, and various opportunities have come. Naturally, the final result will be completely different."

"Okay!" Li Meng said, "Then let's provoke the nerves of the market."

"Well!" Su Yu nodded, "This direction can be used as a breakthrough at the core point, but the breakthrough of the main line also requires the cooperation of the branch lines. Only by spreading the market to multiple sectors and pulling out a clear macro main line , in order to attract the participation of funds from all parties and complete the establishment of the main line of the market.”

Li Meng pondered for a moment and said: "Around the core point of infrastructure demand expansion, the upstream and downstream industrial chains should all be used as branch lines, and according to what you said, the industrial demand and the transmission path of Lilan are often gradually transmitted from the upstream. As for the downstream thinking, there is also a considerable difference in market expectations in the fields of steel, cement and other construction materials.”

"Yes!" Su Yu said, "These two fields, under the influence of 'accelerated urbanization construction', 'accelerated infrastructure construction', and 'recovery of the real estate industry', have opportunities for reversal. At the same time, as traditional sunset industries , when the emerging industries dominated the market before, they have already been knocked down to the bottom, and the valuation is unstoppable. The difference in market expectations is indeed quite large, which can be used as a side line of speculation.”

The two talked about the current market trend and market information.

After discussing the market outlook and investment strategies for several hours in a row, they fully established the follow-up investment ideas, and each fell asleep exhausted.

The next day, under the unanimous decision of the two.

The two main funds, 'Yuhang No. 1' Fund and 'Yuhang No. 2' Fund, began to make final position adjustments, and further focused their holdings on infrastructure, real estate, steel, Cement, building decoration several major fields.

Of course, in the process of further concentrating positions.

With regard to several major core stock positions in the field of "Internet Finance", they have not moved at all and maintained their original status.

After 4 consecutive trading days of fine-tuning positions...

By April 4, when the index was slowly approaching 22 points again, the two main funds finally completed all the adjustment tasks.

At 9:48 in the morning, in the internal trading room of Yuhang Investment.

Su Yu looked at the market that was once again in immeasurable sideways volatility, at the chaotic and disorderly market, all kinds of scattered hotspots that could not form a joint force of funds at all, and also at the 75% position level line of the fund account management background, as well as the positions that had been completed. The 32 core underlying stocks, knowing this moment, is the best time to complete the concept switch and create the main line of the market.

Therefore, he couldn't help turning his head quickly, and immediately issued a concentrated fund to Li Meng and all the traders in the trading room, and tried his best to increase the internal construction of the infrastructure sector. China Railway Construction and Huaguo China Railway' five large-cap stock trading orders with the concepts of "state-owned enterprise reform", "new silk road" and "preferred share issuance" aroused market sentiment.

At the same time, there were more than 7000 million funds in his own stock account.

He also slammed all his brains on the stock market of a stock called 'Beixin Road and Bridge', which belongs to the same infrastructure sector.

Following his orders, following his own trading actions.

In just ten seconds, the five stocks that had shrunk to the extreme, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway, changed instantly. Under the influence of the market, they all rose in a straight line, jumping to the instant gain list of the two cities.

However, Su Yu used his own stock account to attack the 'Beixin Road Bridge' with all his strength. Due to the small size of the market, the selling and circulating orders were limited.

The tens of millions of funds that were directly thrown out by Su Yu drew a vertical line upwards, directly sealing the daily limit, and instantly attracted the collective attention of market investors.

"Damn it, the infrastructure giants collectively changed, this is... what happened?"

Noticing the changes in the entire infrastructure sector, some investors exclaimed.

"Beixin Road and Bridge went straight to the daily limit. Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway also rioted in a straight line. Is there any benefit?"

"Are the main funds crazy, and this is the time to pull blue chips?"

"Is it a scam? It must be a scam. The trend of blue chips is getting lower every time. How can there be any market at all?"

"The main force saves itself, don't follow!"

"Whoever is stupid, blue-chip blunt knives cut flesh, but it is much more fierce than concept stocks on the small and medium-sized board and the ChiNext board."

Amid the expressions of hesitation, doubt, hesitation, and disbelief among many investors...

At 9:51, the five stocks of 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway', which were completely changed, after absorbing the surging buying orders of over 5 million yuan, and the entire market, In the shock of the vast majority of investors, they stood on the [-]% increase.

At the same time, due to the direct drive of these five stocks.

Within a few minutes, the growth rate of the building decoration industry sector soared to the top of the industry sector growth list in the two cities.

Seeing the continuous attack of the main funds and the turbulent buying, at 9:55, the architectural decoration sector, which had attracted the attention of all investors, began to gradually usher in the pursuit of follow-ups. With the daily limit, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo China Railway and other stocks continued to pull up and demonstrated, and they entered the market to open positions to try and make mistakes, and joined the long army.

At 10:02, after Su Yu carefully observed the board and the follow-up situation of various funds in the 'Architectural Decoration' sector, he couldn't help but issue another order to let the traders continue to promote the 'Hua Guo Construction, Hua Guo Construction' sector. MCC, Huaguo Communication Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo China Railway' several benchmark core stocks have a strong buying volume, while pulse-pulling core stocks in the fields of steel, cement, and real estate, attracting more market funds to This field converges.

At the same time, taking advantage of the attention of market investors, they quickly focused on this field.

The attack path of funds fully demonstrates the core logic of the macro main line of the "big country infrastructure" brought about by the "recovery of the real estate economy and accelerated urbanization".