The investment era of rebirth

Chapter 374 The Core Logic of Market Hype!

"what happened?"

At the moment when the index and many popular stocks rushed up and down.

Inside the Shenzhen Xinniu Fund Company, which also holds many popular stocks in the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', in the trading room of the 'Manniu No. Surprised, he hurriedly asked Fang Xinsheng, the fund manager beside him, "Is there a sudden bad news in the market?"

"Probably not!" Fang Xinsheng stared at the market trends of the two markets, and responded, "It should be that the market was too aggressive, which caused the market's incremental funds to fail to keep up, which triggered a large number of selling pressure from the upper side. , don’t worry, this is a natural adjustment.”

"So...here, should be today's emotional high point and intraday high point?" Mou Zhengxing asked after reacting.

Fang Xinsheng nodded and replied, "Almost!"

"Then we can use this as an intraday T to make more profits." Mou Zhengxing said with a smile.

Fang Xinsheng responded: "During the continuous rise of the market, you can only do T in the forward direction, not in the opposite direction. In case I make a mistake in my judgment, you may not be able to get back the chips you throw out at this time. , or the same sentence...Zheng Xing, we traders, we must not only focus on the small profits on the market, but also have a long-term perspective."

After a pause, Fang Xinsheng said again: "Do you know why most of the retail investors in the market can't make money even if they catch the bull stocks?"

"Because they lack patience." Mou Zhengxing said, "Most retail investors are chasing ups and downs. In their shareholding philosophy, they can't wait for the stocks they hold to rise every day. As long as the stocks don't rise for a day, or lag behind the market's rise, they will I can’t help but want to sell it.”

Fang Xinsheng nodded slightly and said: "This is one aspect, and more importantly, in their eyes, there is only a small profit in front of them, and there is no macroscopic pattern of big profits, so they often pick up sesame seeds and lose money because of the small profits in front of them. Watermelon, just like what you thought just now."

"The intraday market of the stock market is the most difficult to predict."

"If you focus on this aspect and ignore the trend in the general direction, you will often forget the big profits because of small profits."

"This is a relatively easy mistake to make in personal trading, and it is also something we, as asset managers, should put an end to and be vigilant about."

"Understood!" Mou Zhengxing responded after listening to Fang Xinsheng's warning, "Then let's continue to maintain the current position without making any changes."

Fang Xinsheng smiled and nodded, then turned his gaze back to the board.

At this time, the market trading time has passed 11 o'clock. After the Shanghai index hit the highest point of 2241.49 points, it fell all the way to 2232 points, and then stopped briefly. 'The popular stocks on the main line also experienced extremely violent fluctuations at this stage, and their stock prices retreated from their intraday highs.

Among them, the two core leading stocks of Huaguo MCC and Huaguo China Railway have retreated by 2%, falling from an increase of more than 5 points to about 3 points.

Tickets for Huagong International, Bayi Iron and Steel, and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. fell from about 3 points to less than 2 points.

As for China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, Gemdale Group, Poly Real Estate and other popular stocks in the real estate sector, the performance is even weaker.

Of course, except for the two core areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'.

Other market areas, such as big finance, mobile Internet, smart phone industry chain and other mainline concepts, are basically fluctuating with the index, there is no independent trend, and there is no obvious accumulation and active undertaking of main funds, and there is no sign of any Sustained money-making effect.

"The profit-making effect of the market is still hyped around the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', and has not been further deepened like the entire market." In the process of the index diving and falling, and the market violently turbulent, this For a moment in Yuhang, inside Yuhang Investment Company and in the fund trading room, Li Meng, who has been watching the changes in the two markets, reported to Su Yu, "This kind of money-making effect cannot be spread as deeply as the entire market, and the current Active funds in the market, under the divergence between long and short, cannot further pull up the main lines of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" that are already at a relatively high level, and further open up the market's upward space. If you look at it this way... the volatility of today's market, It should be in the range from 2241.49 points to 2218 points at the opening."

"Well!" Su Yu nodded slightly, "It's almost like this, the fall is not deep, but the rise is not high either."

"But even so..."

Su Yu paused, and continued: "In terms of the performance of individual stocks, it is still remarkable. On the whole, the activity of hot money in the market is not low, which gives the market quite high vitality and popularity. , Even if the index does not rise, through the local continuous profit-making effect, the bullish sentiment on and off the market will recover again after a short-term adjustment, leading the index to open up space again."

"Indeed." Li Meng replied, "Many concept stocks dominated by hot money today are the protagonists of the market, such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, Shanghai Steel Union, High-tech Development, etc. yesterday's daily limit The most popular stocks, from this morning until now, have all gone out of the second consecutive board situation."

"Hot money is the group of investors with the sharpest sense of smell in this market." Su Yu said, "They think that there is still room for the market outlook to continue, so the market's expectations, after a short-term adjustment, are biased towards the bulls again, that is It's a very natural thing."

"But after expectations re-aligned..."

Su Yu pondered for a moment, and then said: "The two major market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', the most lucrative market profit stage, may come to an end, and when the market really reaches the expected level In the acceleration stage, we are almost at the time to consider the follow-up operation strategy and investment plan.”

"Hmm!" Li Meng replied, "Bottom out in despair, rise in doubt, speed up in enthusiasm, peak in madness... There is nothing more changing market sentiment than this."

"Mr. Su..."

While the two were talking, the core trader Zhu Tianyang stared at the market, and interjected and asked: "If the two main market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' reach a certain high level, and the effect of making money comes to an end, what will happen to the active funds in the market?" Will it return to the route of 'growth stocks' with the SME board and ChiNext as the core?"

"After all, in this round of market rebound after the index bottomed out, from the current point of view, the "growth stock" route centered on the small and medium-sized board and the ChiNext board is seriously lagging behind the gains of the broader market. If the main funds in the market are at a high level Take profits and stop profits, choose high and low switches, there should be huge opportunities in areas that were severely stagnant before!"

Su Yu turned his head and looked at Zhu Tianyang with a smile. Instead of answering directly, he asked instead: "Tianyang, what do you think... What is the hype logic that the market's main funds have been following? Good? Valuation? Expected changes in fundamentals? Emotional reaction? Or something..."

Zhu Tianyang pondered for a while, and replied uncertainly: "It should be...all of them!"

"Liu Yuan, what do you think?" Su Yu still didn't respond directly, but glanced at Liu Yuan, the leader of the trading team 2 on the other side, and asked.

Liu Yuan thought for a while and said, "The money-making effect!"

"Yes!" Su Yu nodded with satisfaction, "All the underlying hype logic is the money-making effect, good market news, target valuation, changes in fundamental performance expectations, market sentiment reactions...these are just part of the support for the divergence of the money-making effect factor."

"The fundamental reason for the hype is that everyone agrees with these logics and participates in it to make money."

"Funds from all walks of life are willing to continue to relay speculation and open up market space."

"In the current market, the money-making effect has the strongest logical support, which are the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'. This is also the reason why various funds are willing to continue to follow up and continue to rush to participate in the relay."

"However, no matter how good the bottom-level expectation logic is, as long as it cannot achieve a sustained profit-making effect, it will not be recognized by the market's main funds, thereby opening up market space."

"Just like the fields of 'consumption', 'medicine' and 'big finance' in the market at the moment."

"Are you saying that their overall valuations are not low? They are already at the historical extreme. Is there no room for imagination in the future? No, is there no major capital to take care of? Not to mention... a large number of major institutional funds are gathered in these fields, But the main funds from all walks of life tried once, twice, or even many times, but they just couldn't open the situation."

"This is because the money-making effect has not been played out. Everyone participates and cannot make money."

"In this way, naturally there will be no continuous main funds entering the market to support the stock price and the market."

"And how can the profit-making effect be expanded step by step, so that the main line of investment logic can be recognized by more and more investors, thus forming a positive cycle of market development."

"This requires the various influencing factors just mentioned. At a certain market timing, it is possible to form a multi-faceted resonance."

"So, on the other hand, looking at what you said just now, Tianyang, about the two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', due to the gradual lack of follow-up profit-making effect, the main funds from all walks of life are gradually leaving the market, which one will you choose? If the direction is used as a high-low switching target, it can be clearly analyzed quantitatively.”

"Everything is about cost performance."

"The same is true for the financial trading market!"

"Looking at the entire market, in the dynamic changes of the market, which fields are attractive enough and can support enough factors to make money, then...that field will be the main funds of all parties, and the next gathering and hype field."

"And obviously... the main line of 'growth stocks' with the SME board and the GEM as the core."

“Currently, there are no mature conditions in terms of valuation, future performance expectations, sentiment, and favorable market information. The valuation in this field is the highest in the market. Compared with the hot money blue chips and white horses on the main board, which have been pressed to the historical limit valuation level, they no longer have any advantages. On the emotional level, after experiencing the hype of various funds in this field in the past year and the short-term strength of this field at the beginning of the year, Many people still hold expectations in their hearts, and their emotions have not reached a freezing point."

"If the emotions are below the freezing point, all kinds of bargaining chips gathered above this area will not be released cleanly, which will cause huge upward pressure on the stock price."

"In terms of positive market news, there is no 'new story' on the line of 'growth stocks'."

"So, obviously, it is not mature for the line of 'growth stocks' to take over the subsequent market development. For the time being... there are no big investment opportunities here."

"So President Su thinks, where will the next main market capital choice be?" Li Mengmeng and Su Yu dissected the logic of the market's main market hype in detail, and asked with a smile, "According to your analysis, the market The pattern of the [-] transition should not change, and the field that can take over the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', and switch between high and low, should also be in the direction of the main board."

"Smart!" Su Yu nodded slightly, "But I am not a god in the market. I can't see the specific switching direction at all. I only know that in the current market dynamics, the words 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' The two main line fields are still the fields with the best cost performance and profit-loss ratio in market investment.”

"all in all……"

Su Yu paused, and continued: "Although the market is dynamic and unpredictable, the choice of main funds and the formation of main market opportunities are the areas where the market's profit-making effect is the easiest to break through. All of these, carefully observe, It’s all traceable.”

"Even though our information channels, market analysis and comprehension capabilities are not comparable to some large institutions with deep backgrounds."

"However, in the process of trading, behind the series of numbers, the huge flow of funds flowing cannot deceive people."

"Under the investment of real money, the choice of each huge amount of funds has its own logic and purpose."

"This is the meaning of our watch market, and it is also one of the underlying logics followed in market analysis and opportunity search."

"Thank you, Mr. Su, for your guidance." After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Zhu Tianyang was very touched, as if he understood some transaction logic and market analysis logic that he hadn't figured out before, and couldn't help but express his gratitude from the bottom of his heart.

In the trading room, the other traders were also touched by Su Yu's words.

At the same time... I feel extremely happy.

After all, for them, it is more important for them to get personal advice from Su Yu, a legendary figure in the financial market, to deepen their understanding of trading and improve their true skills than simple bonuses.

And in fact, the reason why the competition for the positions of traders and analysts in the 'Yuhang Investment' company is so intense.

In addition to the generous salary offered by Yuhang Investment, the most important reason is that everyone is eager to get a little bit of guidance from Su Yu, the top hot money tycoon in the market and a legendary domestic private equity fund manager, after joining the company. own capabilities and future development.

With short internal communication, and market analysis.

When Su Yu turned his head again and focused his attention on the prices of the two cities, the time had passed 11:30, and the prices of the two cities had frozen.

I saw that after violent shocks, it finally closed at noon.

The Shanghai Index returned below 2230 points, closing at 2225.79 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index returned to around the opening point, maintaining a slight decline, and amidst the entire shock pattern in the morning Among them, the volume of the two cities shrank significantly compared with yesterday, and the trading volume was much thinner.

Except for index performance, of course.

The conceptual sectors and industry sectors of the two cities also performed relatively flatly.

Even the two core lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which are highly concerned by the market, all fell back at noon after a rapid surge in the one-hour trading period in the morning. Stocks have all returned to around the price at the opening of the morning session.

However, the overall performance of the two core lines is somewhat unsatisfactory.

However, many small-cap concept stocks in the field, under the all-round attack of hot money from all walks of life, are brilliant, not losing to the state of yesterday's full-scale counterattack of the market.

Among them, Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, High-tech Development, Shanghai Steel Union, Shanghai Construction Engineering... are all mainline concept stocks, and they are still strongly blocked in the market correction near noon. The daily limit has been reached, and the situation of the second consecutive daily limit has been maintained.

In general……

The situation throughout the morning was a bit like a platform for mid-to-large-cap stocks and indexes.

However, the mainline concept stocks dominated by hot money continue to condense the profit-making effect of the market, and they have come on stage to sing operas, gradually becoming the protagonists of the market.

(End of this chapter)