The investment era of rebirth

Chapter 413 A hundred shares limit down, and the bearish lands!
"It's hard to say!" Su Yu responded, "The first wave of emotional venting should be about the same, but the bearish digestion is not so fast, and the market is still very early before the profit is cleared."

"At this moment, the index has fallen too much in a very short period of time. Many potential selling forces in the market have seen that the index has oversold. Funds began to buy bottoms to take over the market, so he hesitated just now, causing the selling force in the market to weaken at this moment, and it also made the market look less ugly."

"However……"

Su Yu paused, and continued: "The essential logic of the market trend has not changed in any way, that is, the market's long-short situation has not changed, and the potential selling force in the market has not shrunk or weakened."

"It is foreseeable that...if there is still no good news in the market during the midday close."

"At the same time, in terms of the 'national team' in the market, there is no move to stabilize the market and increase positions with real money."

"Then, wait until the amount of funds for this wave of bottom-hunting is exhausted."

"That is to say, under the condition that the time-sharing energy has decayed, the market still cannot support the buying orders. I am afraid that the second wave of storms will come again soon."

"So... this afternoon's market is probably not optimistic, is it?" Li Meng heard the meaning of Su Yu's words, knowing that he still maintains a pessimistic attitude towards the current market's intraday and short-term trends, and couldn't help but reply. Dao, "What do you think is the probability of the market's 'national team' making a move to stabilize the market today."

Su Yu smiled and said, "Basically zero."

"Basically zero?" Hearing this probability, Li Meng was obviously a little surprised.

Su Yu nodded and said: "Although the market has fallen sharply today, the trading volume is actually very sufficient. The situation of liquidity drying up on the market only appeared in a few stocks, and most stocks in the market still have no liquidity. Completely exhausted, difficult to buy and sell."

"The first principle of the 'national team' support is to prevent systemic financial risks, not to stabilize the index."

"As for the market's relatively natural adjustment trend under the bearish fermentation, the opponent will most likely not intervene, so I say that the probability of the market's 'national team' participating in the protection of the market in the afternoon is basically zero."

"And..."

Su Yu pondered for a moment, and then said: "As the largest group of main funds in this market, I think some of them have a relatively clear understanding of the market's macro trends, and they don't think that short-term market adjustments will affect the market. to long-term financial market development strategies.”

"So in any case, the probability of this group of main funds intervening in the market at this time is not high."

After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Li Meng pondered for a while, staring at the 'Big Finance' sector that had obviously changed in the morning, and the 'Pharmaceutical' and 'Consumption' sectors where the market trend was relatively strong, and said: "According to what you said Yes, when it was close to 11 o'clock in the morning, what was the reason for the collective changes and counter-trend strength of the defensive sectors such as 'Big Finance', 'Consumption', and 'Pharmaceuticals'?"

Su Yu responded: "It should be some funds inside and outside the market who think they are smart, inducing the sentiment on the market, and switching between high and low. The main funding group of the 'national team' has nothing to do with it."

"Market joint force under the logic of high-low switching?" Li Meng was slightly puzzled.

Su Yu nodded and continued: "Yes, in the previous major fields of 'big finance', 'medicine', and 'consumption', in the stage where the two main market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' continued to rebound and climb, it was In a serious state of stagflation, even if you look at the past two months or so, in the whole round of rebound of the index from 2000 points all the way to around 2500 points, the major players of 'big finance', 'medicine' and 'consumption' area, which is also a stagflation area that has seriously lagged the gains of the broader market.”

"And it is precisely because of the stagflation in these major areas in the previous round of rebound."

"As a result, at this stage, these major areas have become depressions in the overall valuation of the market, and the areas with the least accumulation of profit taking and floating chips in the market."

"Combined with these major sectors, the logical attribute of 'risk aversion' in the minds of the majority of investors."

"Under the slump in the market, in the investment environment of the entire market, and the risk aversion sentiment is rising rapidly, this valuation depression and risk aversion area has naturally become an area that some smart funds decisively attack. The market sector where the main funds increase their positions from the high-level main line fields such as 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'."

"It's not surprising."

"It's just part of the funds on and off the field, speculating and playing emotional games in a situation where mud and sand are mixed."

"Master, it should be difficult to have continuity in the market generated by this kind of emotional game, right?" Hearing Su Yu's specific analysis, Liu Yuan, who was listening carefully, couldn't help but answer.

Su Yu nodded, and responded: "Yes, let's not say that the major sectors of 'big finance', 'medicine', and 'consumption' are going to start their market. They are originally 'big money eaters'. As far as market hype expectations have not changed significantly, the market will be difficult to sustain.”

"Under the so-called overturned nest, there are still eggs?"

"The most profitable areas in the market have all collapsed, and they have become the areas with the most severe money-losing effects. How can we survive the weak areas that are not expected to be hyped?"

"There is a reason why the market is weak, and there is a reason why it is strong."

"Don't think that a stock will rise less when the market is rising, and then it will fall less when the market turns down. In essence, there is no necessary relationship between the two. The rise and fall of stock prices depends on emotions and market conditions. In addition to the overall valuation level, the most fundamental logic is the future expectation of fundamental changes.”

"Let me just say, I feel...the so-called safe-haven sectors of the market such as 'big finance', 'medicine', and 'consumption' are obviously attracting more." Wang Can continued, "These few The core stocks in the big field, one by one, have a market value of tens of hundreds of billions. I really don’t know what investors who buy these stocks think at the moment? Originally, the current market’s buying volume is seriously insufficient. Can you move such a super large-cap stock?"

"Although they are all super large-cap stocks with hundreds of billions of dollars, in fact, there are not many potential floating chips on these stocks." Zhao Lijun pondered for a while, and then said, "From the emotional game, the logic of switching from high to low As far as these stocks are concerned, there is no problem with the rise of these stocks, but the sustainability...is really doubtful."

"No matter how the market changes in the time-sharing trend, we should still focus on resolutely reducing positions at present?" While everyone was talking, Zhu Tianyang looked up at Su Yu who had fallen silent, and asked, "Mr. Early trading strategy, indiscriminate lighten up?"

Hearing Zhu Tianyang's question, Su Yu came back to his senses, and replied, "Yes, continue to reduce positions without distinction. There is a high probability that this is just a short period of calm after the first round of storms. The impact of stronger storms may still be behind. At this time... …If you hesitate and don’t seize the opportunity to reduce positions, then when a new round of storms comes, facing worse market trends and market liquidity, it may be more difficult to complete our expected reduction targets. "

"Okay, I got it!" Zhu Tianyang fully agreed with Su Yu's analysis, so he couldn't help but quickly responded, and then continued to bow his head and tap the keyboard to place further orders for stocks with a certain amount of liquidity sell.

Similarly, when Zhu Tianyang was operating.

In the trading room, all the traders also quickly continued to execute the selling order, or placed the order at a low price, or actively sold at the market price, crazily withdrawing funds and reducing the holding chips in their hands.

And with the reduction of the entire 'Yuhang Investment' trading room, it was sold.

In the last 10 minutes of trading time near the close of noon trading, many industry sector constituent stocks in the main line fields of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform", which had already experienced time-sharing shrinkage, once again began to fall in volume, and drove the market to continue to panic and sell soaring.

Finally, at 11:30, the two cities closed at noon.

The decline in the Shanghai stock index has once again expanded to more than 3.2%, and the number of stocks in the two markets has reached 57.

Except for the major risk-avoiding areas of 'big finance', 'consumption', and 'medicine', which have relatively small declines, all other mainline areas have suffered heavy setbacks.

Among them, 'infrastructure' and 'reform of state-owned enterprises', the two hot mainline areas in the early stage, and the related industry sector and concept sector index, did not drop by less than 3.5%. Even the 'real estate' and 'steel' sectors fell even more. It is close to 6%, which can be called horror.

Of course, except for individual stocks that performed extremely tragically.

The turnover of the two cities also continued to maintain a high level, and the half-day turnover was at the same level as yesterday, showing no signs of shrinking.

And such a half-day market trend, whether it is for investors on the market or outside the market, it is a lingering fear, which is much lower than expected. Many people thought that today's market trend would not be good, but they did not expect it at all. There will be such a plunge.

"Sin, this trend, there is really no resistance!"

During the lunch break, when the market investment sentiment has been completely one-sided, the discussion areas of major stock trading platforms, where the majority of retail investors gather, exploded again.

"Hey, a wave of plummeting, directly trapped to death, and I don't know when I will stand guard this time?"

"Overnight, it fell from the bull market to the bear market again. Sure enough... the bear market is still suitable for big A!"

"Two months of hard work on T, buying and selling, and finally reducing the cost, it seems that the problem is about to be undone, and the result... one day directly returns to before liberation."

"I can see it clearly. Every time the market screams 'bull market', the market is not far from a plunge."

"Damn 'IPO restart' news, wouldn't it come out later? I almost got rid of it."

"Although the market has fallen sharply in the past two days, and there are bad news about the 'IPO restart', the most fundamental reason is that the accumulation of profit margins on the market is too serious, and it failed to break through 2500 points. Is it time for a correction?"

"If there is no bad news, maybe the index will go beyond 2500 points."

"At least there is no bad news, and the index will not fall so badly."

"In this morning's trend, those who didn't hit the limit are all quite powerful people, right?"

"It's only been half a day, and the number of stocks in the two markets is almost 60. I feel that today there is a high probability that there will be a limit of [-] stocks!"

"The regulators should be satisfied now. After all, everyone really voted with their feet, hehe...and even opened the IPO gate to suck blood. I see the market trend, how to suck it?"

"Big A is already equivalent to a skinny patient, and if he draws blood again, he is really not far from death."

"Die, die! Die early and live early."

"I don't want to treat the disease first, but I just want to keep drawing blood, and I am convinced!"

"When it was close to 11 o'clock, I saw a change in 'big finance'. I thought the 'national team' was going to protect the market, but I didn't expect...it was strong for a while, and it fell back around noon."

"What's the use of protecting the market in a trend full of mud and sand?"

"Yes, confidence has fallen, even if the 'national team' makes a move, it will be difficult to reverse it."

"Hey, this morning, I really feel that all the funds are being dumped. The market selling effect is really worse than yesterday. The big funds are really resolute."

"Knowing that the market will continue to fall, why not run in this situation?"

"As long as it can be sold, if it were me, I would run without hesitation, but what the hell...the limit is locked, and I can't even run. It's really speechless."

"Hey, I can only hope for the afternoon."

"Don't expect it in the afternoon, the trend in the afternoon may be even worse."

"Since yesterday's peak, the index has fallen by almost 100 points, so it should be considered a short-term oversold, right?"

"Whether it's oversold or not, just sell it in one word. Look at the batch of funds that bought the bottom at 10 o'clock in the morning. When the market closed at noon, did they get caught again? Novices died of chasing highs, and veterans died of buying bottoms. I really don’t think it’s a person with a high degree of art who is bold, so don’t take the knife.”

"Yes, looking at the trend, it is obvious that the index has just started to fall."

"Why do you have to wait for the index to fall to the next support platform near 2200 points before you start buying bottoms? At this time, rushing to enter the market to buy bottoms, isn't that rushing to catch the flying knife?"

"Is there anyone who is betting on the dragon's return? I think the check from Beixin Luqiao was closed at noon after the limit was sealed early in the morning, and more than 2000 million funds were traded at noon."

"Hehe, Long Huihui...do you think too much? Without the blessing of the seat of "Wealth Road", which main force is willing to be taken advantage of and continue to make progress? Don't think it has lost enough? Look at "Infrastructure" and "State-owned Enterprise Reform" 'The trend of these two main market trends after the large-scale reduction of positions in Mr. Su's "Wealth Road" is really a flash crash, with follow-up selling emerging one after another, and buying orders plummeting sharply. Those who dare to take orders at this time... are really brave. "

"Indeed, at this time, buying stocks in the field of 'big finance' is more reliable than picking up popular concept stocks of the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'. Look at last year's Shanghai Steel Union, Huaqingbao, Changsha Fun Technology, Huake Jincai... Wait for the trend of many popular concept stocks in the past few months after they peaked. It can only be described as horrible, and the cut in half is light. Just take Hua Qingbao as an example. When the quarterly earnings report fell short of expectations, the stock price has fallen by more than 60% compared to last year's high."

"Anyway, this throwing knife, whoever loves to pick it up, whoever picks it up, I keep my short position."

"Originally, I wanted to wait for the stock index to completely break through 2500 points, and then take an opportunity on the right side. Now it seems... this opportunity on the right side is no longer needed. It's okay, it's okay... I resisted the temptation of the market to continue to rise. I didn’t chase high, otherwise I’m afraid I’d even have the heart to cry.”

"Looking at the market trend in the morning, it is obvious that 2300 points cannot be supported."

"There is a high probability that the index will fall back to 2200 points. Maybe... under pessimistic circumstances, it is not impossible to fall back to 2000 points."

"Indeed, in our Big A, anything can happen."

"Let's wait and see. At this time, if you have a position, reducing your position is definitely the first choice. If you don't have a position, you must stop it."

"When the market is gone and the effect of losing money is overwhelming, I will definitely not participate."

"Boss Su has lightened his positions on a large scale, so there is no reason to stay in the field."

"The market can't get rid of the pattern of the bear market, so why don't you participate in it? It's a short position, a short position. I was so happy a few days ago."

"Hey, it seems that in the market, all institutions that sing long can't be trusted."

"I definitely can't believe it. I know from imagination. There is no time when the market makes most people make money? It's just to lure more people to cut leeks. If you really believe it, then you will really take the offer. Speaking of... The main force of the selling is really unscrupulous, really relying on the advantage of information channels to cut leeks like crazy?"

"That's true, but it's also caused by the ecological environment of our big A, there is no way."

"Hey, the system construction is still far behind the mature financial markets abroad!"

"Didn't the 'Nine Articles of the New Country' come out? I hope there will be changes in the future? To be honest...if the investment environment does not change and there is no major capital willing to make long-term investments, it will be really difficult for the market to have a long-term bull market."

"Do you still want a bull market? Don't expect too much. It will be good if the index does not fall back to 2000 points."

In the extremely intense market discussion, the noon break passed in a flash, and the market came to the formal auction trading stage in the afternoon.

I saw that the time had just passed 1 o'clock in the afternoon.

As the investment sentiment in the entire market was brewing at noon, under the influence of a full turnaround, the market immediately encountered a wave of violent selling as soon as the market opened. The influence of various aspects such as strong emotions again, under the situation of violent selling hitting the market, the various buying power in the market is also further rapidly weakening.

In the end, the index completely lost resistance within 2 or 3 minutes, and the drop instantly expanded to more than 3.5%.

Immediately afterwards, the limit-down wave originating from the main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' spread to all main lines of the entire market.

At 1:10, the decline in the Shanghai stock index expanded to more than 3.75%, and the index broke through the 2320 position, reaching the lowest point of 2314.47.

At 1:15, the number of limit-down stocks in the two cities reached 76.

At 1:20, there were only 82 stocks in the two cities, and they were still in the red market. The effect of making money was sluggish to the extreme, while the effect of losing money was magnified to the extreme.

At 1:30, after half an hour of trading after the re-opening, the market turnover hit the 1200 billion mark. At the same time, all sectors related to the two main lines of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" had a total net outflow of nearly 80 billion, of which The net outflow of funds from the 'real estate' sector was 32 billion. Of the dozens of constituent stocks in the entire sector, only two stocks that were favorable for resumption of trading showed a one-word limit-up trend, and the rest of the constituent stocks did not have a single red market.

At 1:40, the stock index fell to a 4% mark. At the same time, the stock index set a new intraday low and broke through 2310 points.

At 1:46, under extreme panic, the number of limit-down stocks in the two markets reached 101. After almost a year, there was another intraday limit-down trend for hundreds of stocks.

At 1:50, there was almost a total collapse, and the market with lost liquidity once again ushered in a wave of bottom-hunting funds.

At 1:55, when the Shanghai stock index hit the lowest point of 2306.39 points, almost hitting the integer mark of 2300 points, under the rapid influx of bottom-hunting funds, it ushered in a short intraday oversold rebound.

At 2:01, the Shanghai stock index recovered the 2310-point mark, and the decline narrowed to less than 4%.

At 2:02, after the Shanghai stock index rebounded from an oversold intraday period, and the extreme panic selling came to an end, many of the main funds trapped in the market began to save themselves.

At 2:03, many stocks whose price limit was not completely sealed, as well as many small-cap concept stocks that crashed and plummeted in the first few minutes, rose rapidly.

At 2:05, the number of individual stocks in the market dropped to a limit of 92.

At 2:10, the time-sharing volume of the market began to shrink again, and the strength of long and short positions seemed to be at this position, and in this short moment, it began to approach balance again.

Then, during the half hour from 2:10 to 2:40.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index began to fluctuate around the range of 2310 to 2320 points, and the decline was also constant between 3.5% and 4%. The market's bottom-selling and selling orders formed a delicate balance in a shrinking state.

However, when the time passed 2:40 and entered the last 20 minutes of late trading.

The selling force in the market began to break the balance again, and once again carried out another large-scale sell-off on the liquid individual stock market.

At 2:45, the stock index fell from around 3.5% to 3.83%.

At 2:50, the decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index once again broke through the 4% mark. At the same time, the index also refreshed the intraday low, refreshing the intraday lowest point to 2303.96 points.

At 2:53, the Shanghai stock index fell below the integer mark of 2300 points.

At 2:54, after the Shanghai stock index broke through the 2300 point in an instant, it recovered in a flash. A large-scale concentrated influx at one time, undertook the last market sell-off.

Finally, 3 o'clock in the afternoon came, when the market closed.

The Shanghai Designated Index was at 2313.78 points, down 3.92%. The Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index fell slightly less than the Shanghai Index, but they were all above the 3.5% decline. At the same time, the total turnover of the two cities was 1683.39 billion. It has been lowered, but it is definitely in the form of a large-scale plunge.

In addition to index performance, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

I saw that 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', two high-level and popular themes that have been hyped for nearly two months in a row, have suffered a comprehensive setback. The popular stocks with high popularity are all at the forefront of today's market decline list.

Among them, the 'real estate' sector index fell by 5.86%. Among the constituent stocks of the sector, more than 6 stocks fell by the limit, and 12 stocks fell by more than 7%.

As for the popular leading stocks that rank at the forefront of market attention.

Stocks such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communication Construction, Shanghai Sanmao, Shanghai Construction Engineering, China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, Shibei High-tech, Yukai Development, etc., all closed at the daily limit, and Beixin Road and Bridge closed at the daily limit. The order, at the closing time, reached 56 lots, which can be called terrifying.

Facing this kind of market trend that has been massacred...

In the market, the majority of investors are all extremely pessimistic, and countless people feel that the previous continuous upward trend in the market is like a dream, which is not real at all.

Of course, in this pessimism, sadness, and complaints.

Many investor groups who were locked up by the price limit before they had time to reduce their positions still hoped for a glimmer of hope, praying for a miracle to appear on the Dragon and Tiger List refreshed after the market, and also praying for the regulators to notice on the weekend With such a miserable market trend, there will be some good news to stabilize the market.

However, when the after-hours dragon and tiger list is refreshed, it will be reserved for the most determined market bulls.

Still disappointed.

At 5:30 p.m., the refreshed list of dragons and tigers in the two cities showed that the main fund trading seat of the 'Yuhang Investment' company, that is, 'Fortune Road' sold a total of 6.3 million funds on the list, two consecutive years. Daily net selling, and the total net selling volume exceeds 13 billion, which can be described as a real huge amount of lightening.

And, except for the trading seat of 'Fortune Road', which has a great influence on market sentiment.

Such as 'Jiefang South Road', 'Chunhui Road', 'Siji Road', 'Hongqiao Road', 'Yitian Road', 'Yanjing Beiwai Avenue'... etc., are also in a state of net selling. There are also seats in various institutions, and they have also appeared in several popular stocks in the main lines of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" in the middle and large caps on the list.

Generally speaking, it is the main funds from all walks of life who participated in the hype of the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'.

At this moment, all are in the state of reducing positions and clearing positions.

Seeing such data performance on the Dragon and Tiger List, some long-term investors in the market who were still holding on to a glimmer of hope and last hope were completely shattered in their hearts. The wait-and-see investor group has all turned to the short side.

It can be said that all of a sudden, in the discussion areas of major stock forums and internal communication groups in the market.

It was full of pessimistic and empty voices filled with mourning.

Even the hot money groups who are most sensitive to market trends and known as "the smartest funds in the market" are biased towards a collective bearish situation at this moment.

Of course, at the moment when the vast majority of investor groups are fully in the direction of short positions.

There is also one of the most stubborn bullish areas, which still maintains the bullish rhetoric of "thousands of years", still analyzing the bright future of the market from various macro and micro directions, and tirelessly telling the vast number of retail investors in the market The future is still bright for the groups, and the stock market is still bullish.

this field……

It is a real 'bully' group composed of various brokerage institutions, fund management institutions, and financial big Vs.

However, at this moment, when countless investors suffered huge losses in these two transactions and felt extremely sad and indignant, their rhetoric has undoubtedly been strongly questioned and criticized by the majority of retail investors. , Even many retail investors are under the analysis point of view of these people, cursed endlessly, and ridiculed that these people are "talking too much, but actually selling short", which is a cancer of the market.

It just doesn't matter how sad and indignant everyone feels and how disappointed they are with the market.

All developments in the financial market, including actual trends, fundamentals, and news, do not depend on the views and will of the majority of retail investors.

Those rumors that will eventually become facts will still happen after all.

At 7 o'clock in the evening, when the majority of investors complained, and the pessimism in the entire market became more and more intense.

The bad news of 'IPO restart' that has been circulating in the market for almost 3 trading days has finally settled. According to the news released by the regulatory authorities, starting from next Monday, that is, starting from May 5, the market will be suspended for more than 19 months. The IPO review has been restarted, and it is expected that the first batch of new shares will be listed for trading in early June.

Of course, at the moment when the bad news landed.

Maybe the regulators are trying to prevent the market from overreacting, maybe they are trying to appease investors who have almost collapsed the market.

In the restarted IPO plan, the regulators redefine several new rules compared with the previous IPO restart plan, that is, reducing the initial listing review fundraising scale and reducing the number of stocks discovered in each stage of new shares , Changed the online and offline subscription methods and proportions of new shares.

Generally speaking, under the established negative expectations, it gave a little sweetness that exceeded many people's expectations.

The so-called "hit a stick, and give a sweet date" approach.

"Fortunately, this bad news has finally landed as expected." In the evening, Li Meng looked at the market announcement issued by the regulatory authorities, heaved a sigh of relief, and said, "It is the same as the intelligence information obtained by our company before. Some changes have been made in the scale of fundraising, the speed of issuance, and the purchase model, and on the basis of not affecting the IPO issuance, the burden on the market will be reduced to the greatest extent, and at the same time, profits will be given to the majority of retail investors.”

"Yeah!" Su Yu, who was sitting next to Li Meng, nodded slightly, "After all the setbacks, the regulators are really much smarter this time around. This is the way the new rules should be changed."

Li Mengmeng thought about it, and said: "Now the bad news has landed, and the market has also reacted to the bad news in advance in the past two days. The trend next week... shouldn't be too bad, right?"

"There will still be short-term labor pains." Su Yu responded, "After all, there is still a wave of emotions to be vented, but this pain will pass soon. It’s almost cleared up, and some people will gradually realize that the fundamentals of the market and long-term investment logic are gradually improving in an all-round way, and at that time... the continuous profit-making effect of the market will re-condense, and the new market will set sail again!"

(End of this chapter)