The investment era of rebirth
Chapter 672 The basic logic of the bull market!
Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, squinted at the changes in the two markets, and responded with a smile: "This is a bull market! As long as there are continuous incremental funds entering the market, as long as the market outlook continues For the better, as long as the market still has a relatively strong profit-making effect, as long as the market investment sentiment and investment confidence are still at a relatively active stage, then the trend that has come out will continue.
The short-term long-short divergence in the market is actually not a bad thing.
The financial trading market is a very free trading market. If someone sells, someone will naturally buy.
If the market wants to continue to move forward, only by the continuous exchange of chips, the structural center of gravity of the market chips is constantly changing hands, and gradually move up, can create a continuous 'bull market' market.
Moreover, in a relatively aggressive market trading atmosphere.
Especially at this stage, when investor risk appetite in the entire market is continuing to rise.
All good news will be amplified by this emotional effect, and all bad news will be subconsciously ignored by this emotional effect, weakening its influence.
Even if there is no clear positive impact, under the strong bullish sentiment effect.
Most investors will also subconsciously dig out the corresponding insignificant benefits to create new confidence in their positions.
Therefore, when the market enters the bull market stage.
Even if there is an extreme intraday trend adjustment in the index, it is generally difficult to hurt the sentiment of the day.
What's more, last night's external market trend was very good, and many institutions in the industry have also changed their outlook on the external market in all aspects.
In this way, the domestic market experienced differentiated adjustments during yesterday's session.
Once again, it generally opened higher, and the investment sentiment of the entire market did not retreat but advanced, which is easy to understand.
However, although the index is likely to open higher under this emotional effect, or continue to hit a new intraday high point, but when the index enters the historical concentration of holding up the market, and the short-term profit-making concentrated selling desire is becoming more and more Strong stalls, it is not realistic to expect the explosive volume breakthrough of the continuous big positive line in the trading hours before the index is formed.
It is very likely that in the subsequent market trend, the index will enter the trend of the previous months, advancing two and retreating one, or fluctuating in small steps and continuing to rise.
After all, if the target of the index is above 5000 points.
From 3000 points to 3500 points, which is a very heavy range position in the history of holding up the market. If you don’t go through a lot of trouble and completely adjust the chip structure in the general direction, the pressure on the index to hit a higher range position in the future will only be greater. The market in the bull market Height is also severely restricted. "
After hearing Xu Xiang's analysis, Zhou Kan thought for a moment and responded: "So the boss feels that it is completely normal for the market to have a large long-short divergence in this position range, and it is away from the high-flying and high-fighting situation of the previous week. Is it far better to enter a volatile and upward trend than to continue to hold high and fight high?”
"This is natural!" Xu Xiang nodded and said, "Since the last round of bull market, the index has not touched the range of 3000 to 3500 points. The holding chips in this range have never been Got any digestion.
According to the position psychology of the majority of retail investors.
At the beginning, those funds that were trapped at 4000 points, 5000 points, or even 6000 points felt that the index was hopeless to regain these historical highs. There was a high probability that they would cut their positions and stop losses on a large scale over time. However, they were locked at 3000 points The vast number of retail investor groups within the range of 4000 points.
Their psychology is completely different from the psychology of investors above 4000 points.
This interval position is neither high nor low.
In other words, they still have some hope in their hearts, and feel that one day, the index can break through this range and let them get out of the trap. Therefore, a lot of capital chips in this range are usually not easy to cut their positions at low positions. With that glimmer of hope, one after another admitted their losses and were out.
And the index has just stopped at 3000 points for many years.
I have always given these people hope, but never let these people's hopes come true.
This leads to the accumulation of hold-up orders in this range, which should be the range with the greatest pressure during the upward phase of the index.
However, there is no strong continuous change of hands, no sufficient exchange of chips, and only relying on the continuous positive impact on the news surface and the extremeization of emotions to quickly pass through in the form of holding high and fighting high, then It will inevitably lead to the unclean clearing of the locked-in chips in this range, and the unstable chip structure in this range.
And once this happens.
After the index held high, the mood once declined rapidly.
What is waiting for the market will be continuous and violent adjustments, which is very likely to be a vicious extreme decline.
Once such a situation occurs, the market will not be able to sustain the concentrated selling of a large number of chips that have not been cleared between 3000 and 4000 points.
When the market cannot bear it, the follow-up space of the bull market cannot be opened.
Only by allowing the index to fluctuate continuously and continuously changing hands in this pressured range can the chips accumulated in this range be fully exchanged, so that both short and long positions can have full understanding. , in order to stabilize the support of the market at this position.
Only in this way can the market go more steadily and the bottom foundation of the bull market be firmer.
Generally speaking, at this time, the development of the index should be slow rather than fast.
We have to wait for the bullish sentiment in the market to further ferment. The bullish market expectations are recognized by more investor groups, and more off-market capital groups are pouring into the market. The main rising market will really come.
At this stage, the curtain of the bull market has just begun, and the market is still in the period of switching between long and short.
At this time, we have to see clearly the actual trend of the market. At which stage, we need to be more patient with the market and have more determination to hold positions. "
"I agree with what the boss said." Zhou Kan said, "But once the market situation returns to the trend of the previous few months, then the main line of 'big finance', especially the investment in the securities sector, will The core logic is not so strong!"
"Generally, the market volume of 6000 billion yuan, and the balance of two financings with a scale of trillions, can't support the fundamental changes in the securities sector?" Xu Xiang smiled and said, "What's more, the main institutional groups in the past, for the 'big The financial sector is not optimistic. In the early days, everyone's position weight in this main line field was not high, which led to this big main line. There is no shortage of large capital groups to follow up and undertake.
In addition, it is almost obvious at present that the expectation of the central bank's monetary easing policy exists.
I judge...
Even if the index slows down, the market trend of the main line of 'big finance' will most likely not slow down, and it is very likely that it will continue to accelerate.
Don't forget that the real driving force of the market is not the actual fulfillment of expectations.
but anticipation itself.
As long as the logic of the market’s bull market remains unchanged, as long as the central bank’s intention to promote monetary easing remains unchanged, as long as the volume of the market can continue to remain extremely high, as long as the balance of financing and financing can continue to grow and approach trillions, as long as many industry players The weight of institutional groups in the direction of "big finance" has not yet reached a high water mark as it did in the main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry".
Then, the line of 'big finance' is currently facing the market trend.
There is only one way to go up and keep going up.
Looking at the entire current market, there is no core main line that has the logic of market outlook expectations, and the line of "big finance" is so positive and strong.
Since we judge that the bull market in the market will not stop.
Judging the interval between 3000 points and 4000 points, although repeated, is bound to be broken through. It is judged that under the guidance of the continuous profit-making effect, the risk appetite of market investors will gradually increase, and the incremental capital group will continue to grow. flooded into the market.
Then, we should have firm confidence in holding shares on the line of 'big finance'.
As for the firm market...
President Su of the 'Yuhang Department' has set a good example for all of us.
The entire 'Yuhang Department' fund group should have basically shifted the focus of their holdings to the main line of 'Big Finance'.
It can be seen through the holdings of the main fund products of the company 'Anzhao Fund' controlled by 'Yu Hang Department'.
After the other party intervened in the main line of "big finance" with almost all positions more than a month ago, they basically didn't move their positions much.
We should also have this kind of determination and confidence.
The curtain of the bull market has just been opened. 'Big Finance', as the historical vanguard of the bull market, has always been 'the bull market has not moved, but securities have moved first', and in the entire market, most of the smart main capital groups , the same is true for unanimous expectations. In this case...then we must follow this expected logic and invest and operate in accordance with the actual trend of the market. "
Seeing Xu Xiang's speech, Zhou Kan's eyes were full of confidence in the market outlook, and at the same time, he was also full of confidence in the distribution of the fund's holdings in the direction of the main line of "big finance". Let's take it for a long time, continue to lock up positions, and wait for the full realization of the main line of 'big finance'."
Xu Xiang nodded, and then turned his gaze back to the trading board of the two cities.
At this time, the two cities have passed the initial call auction period and entered the real call auction period at 9:20.
And after the first 5 minutes of initial call bidding.
At 9:19, a large number of false pending orders were withdrawn.
Compared with the time of 9:15, the market situation of the two cities has clearly declined, and the general high opening pattern is not so obvious.
Among them, relatively high-ranking mainline fields such as 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' were hit hard yesterday.
It has generally opened slightly lower.
In particular, the stock 'Bluestone Heavy Equipment', which is still attracting a lot of attention from the two cities, has already seen its stock price drop by 4.21% due to the proposed matching transaction order displayed on its market.
Of course, as the majority of investors in the market, as well as the core popular main line of the two cities that the main core institutional groups focus on, the main line of 'big finance', especially the securities sector and Internet finance that have continued to lead the market in the two cities in recent days For the sector, the call auction performance at this moment is still very strong.
The index of the securities sector rose by about 1%.
Among the core constituent stocks in the sector, Western Securities opened higher by 1.55%, Orient Securities opened higher by 1.13%, Huaxin Securities opened higher by 0.89%, and Huashang Securities opened higher by 0.76%. 10% of the stocks opened flat or opened slightly lower.
The performance of the Internet finance sector is even worse than that of the securities sector.
The Internet finance sector index has risen by 1.35% at this moment. The core component stocks in the sector, Flush, completely withstood the selling pressure after failing to close the market yesterday, and opened higher by around 5.21%. Hengsheng Electronics opened higher 2.33%, Jinzheng shares opened 2.11% higher, Dongfang Fortune opened 1.55% higher...
As for the core line of 'technological growth', there was serious differentiation yesterday.
The 'film and television media' segment, which performed the most strongly yesterday, is maintaining a slightly higher opening trend at the moment, while the rest of the sub-line concepts such as 'Internet software', 'Internet application', and 'smart phone industry chain' are gradually falling back. , showing a flat or slightly lower opening trend.
The rest of the main lines are 'big consumption', 'color cycle', 'pharmaceutical business', 'petrochemical industry'...etc.
The performance at this moment has also gradually fallen from the generally high opening at 9:15 to the current generally flat or slightly lower opening.
Finally, when the time gradually moved forward from 9:20 to 9:25.
When the two cities end the call auction.
I saw that the Shanghai Index finally settled at a 0.23% increase and opened only slightly higher; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index maintained a flat opening trend; With the continued strong support of the main line of big finance, it opened higher at 0.21%, and continued to lead the rise of several important core indexes in the two cities.
And, in addition to index performance.
Compared with yesterday, the turnover of the two cities during the entire call auction process has risen again.
This shows that although the mood in the early trading was very good, the internal selling pressure has not been fully digested, and the market differentiation trend, with a high probability, will continue.
Faced with such a market opening situation...
Inside and outside the market, the majority of investor groups feel somewhat lower than expected.
After all, the U.S. stock market rose sharply last night, and the external market trend was booming. Even if there is no substantial positive support on the news, according to everyone's inner expectations, the opening range of the major market core indexes should be at least 0.5% higher. Yes, it is just opening slightly higher, which is obviously significantly lower than expected.
The short-term long-short divergence in the market is actually not a bad thing.
The financial trading market is a very free trading market. If someone sells, someone will naturally buy.
If the market wants to continue to move forward, only by the continuous exchange of chips, the structural center of gravity of the market chips is constantly changing hands, and gradually move up, can create a continuous 'bull market' market.
Moreover, in a relatively aggressive market trading atmosphere.
Especially at this stage, when investor risk appetite in the entire market is continuing to rise.
All good news will be amplified by this emotional effect, and all bad news will be subconsciously ignored by this emotional effect, weakening its influence.
Even if there is no clear positive impact, under the strong bullish sentiment effect.
Most investors will also subconsciously dig out the corresponding insignificant benefits to create new confidence in their positions.
Therefore, when the market enters the bull market stage.
Even if there is an extreme intraday trend adjustment in the index, it is generally difficult to hurt the sentiment of the day.
What's more, last night's external market trend was very good, and many institutions in the industry have also changed their outlook on the external market in all aspects.
In this way, the domestic market experienced differentiated adjustments during yesterday's session.
Once again, it generally opened higher, and the investment sentiment of the entire market did not retreat but advanced, which is easy to understand.
However, although the index is likely to open higher under this emotional effect, or continue to hit a new intraday high point, but when the index enters the historical concentration of holding up the market, and the short-term profit-making concentrated selling desire is becoming more and more Strong stalls, it is not realistic to expect the explosive volume breakthrough of the continuous big positive line in the trading hours before the index is formed.
It is very likely that in the subsequent market trend, the index will enter the trend of the previous months, advancing two and retreating one, or fluctuating in small steps and continuing to rise.
After all, if the target of the index is above 5000 points.
From 3000 points to 3500 points, which is a very heavy range position in the history of holding up the market. If you don’t go through a lot of trouble and completely adjust the chip structure in the general direction, the pressure on the index to hit a higher range position in the future will only be greater. The market in the bull market Height is also severely restricted. "
After hearing Xu Xiang's analysis, Zhou Kan thought for a moment and responded: "So the boss feels that it is completely normal for the market to have a large long-short divergence in this position range, and it is away from the high-flying and high-fighting situation of the previous week. Is it far better to enter a volatile and upward trend than to continue to hold high and fight high?”
"This is natural!" Xu Xiang nodded and said, "Since the last round of bull market, the index has not touched the range of 3000 to 3500 points. The holding chips in this range have never been Got any digestion.
According to the position psychology of the majority of retail investors.
At the beginning, those funds that were trapped at 4000 points, 5000 points, or even 6000 points felt that the index was hopeless to regain these historical highs. There was a high probability that they would cut their positions and stop losses on a large scale over time. However, they were locked at 3000 points The vast number of retail investor groups within the range of 4000 points.
Their psychology is completely different from the psychology of investors above 4000 points.
This interval position is neither high nor low.
In other words, they still have some hope in their hearts, and feel that one day, the index can break through this range and let them get out of the trap. Therefore, a lot of capital chips in this range are usually not easy to cut their positions at low positions. With that glimmer of hope, one after another admitted their losses and were out.
And the index has just stopped at 3000 points for many years.
I have always given these people hope, but never let these people's hopes come true.
This leads to the accumulation of hold-up orders in this range, which should be the range with the greatest pressure during the upward phase of the index.
However, there is no strong continuous change of hands, no sufficient exchange of chips, and only relying on the continuous positive impact on the news surface and the extremeization of emotions to quickly pass through in the form of holding high and fighting high, then It will inevitably lead to the unclean clearing of the locked-in chips in this range, and the unstable chip structure in this range.
And once this happens.
After the index held high, the mood once declined rapidly.
What is waiting for the market will be continuous and violent adjustments, which is very likely to be a vicious extreme decline.
Once such a situation occurs, the market will not be able to sustain the concentrated selling of a large number of chips that have not been cleared between 3000 and 4000 points.
When the market cannot bear it, the follow-up space of the bull market cannot be opened.
Only by allowing the index to fluctuate continuously and continuously changing hands in this pressured range can the chips accumulated in this range be fully exchanged, so that both short and long positions can have full understanding. , in order to stabilize the support of the market at this position.
Only in this way can the market go more steadily and the bottom foundation of the bull market be firmer.
Generally speaking, at this time, the development of the index should be slow rather than fast.
We have to wait for the bullish sentiment in the market to further ferment. The bullish market expectations are recognized by more investor groups, and more off-market capital groups are pouring into the market. The main rising market will really come.
At this stage, the curtain of the bull market has just begun, and the market is still in the period of switching between long and short.
At this time, we have to see clearly the actual trend of the market. At which stage, we need to be more patient with the market and have more determination to hold positions. "
"I agree with what the boss said." Zhou Kan said, "But once the market situation returns to the trend of the previous few months, then the main line of 'big finance', especially the investment in the securities sector, will The core logic is not so strong!"
"Generally, the market volume of 6000 billion yuan, and the balance of two financings with a scale of trillions, can't support the fundamental changes in the securities sector?" Xu Xiang smiled and said, "What's more, the main institutional groups in the past, for the 'big The financial sector is not optimistic. In the early days, everyone's position weight in this main line field was not high, which led to this big main line. There is no shortage of large capital groups to follow up and undertake.
In addition, it is almost obvious at present that the expectation of the central bank's monetary easing policy exists.
I judge...
Even if the index slows down, the market trend of the main line of 'big finance' will most likely not slow down, and it is very likely that it will continue to accelerate.
Don't forget that the real driving force of the market is not the actual fulfillment of expectations.
but anticipation itself.
As long as the logic of the market’s bull market remains unchanged, as long as the central bank’s intention to promote monetary easing remains unchanged, as long as the volume of the market can continue to remain extremely high, as long as the balance of financing and financing can continue to grow and approach trillions, as long as many industry players The weight of institutional groups in the direction of "big finance" has not yet reached a high water mark as it did in the main lines of "infrastructure" and "military industry".
Then, the line of 'big finance' is currently facing the market trend.
There is only one way to go up and keep going up.
Looking at the entire current market, there is no core main line that has the logic of market outlook expectations, and the line of "big finance" is so positive and strong.
Since we judge that the bull market in the market will not stop.
Judging the interval between 3000 points and 4000 points, although repeated, is bound to be broken through. It is judged that under the guidance of the continuous profit-making effect, the risk appetite of market investors will gradually increase, and the incremental capital group will continue to grow. flooded into the market.
Then, we should have firm confidence in holding shares on the line of 'big finance'.
As for the firm market...
President Su of the 'Yuhang Department' has set a good example for all of us.
The entire 'Yuhang Department' fund group should have basically shifted the focus of their holdings to the main line of 'Big Finance'.
It can be seen through the holdings of the main fund products of the company 'Anzhao Fund' controlled by 'Yu Hang Department'.
After the other party intervened in the main line of "big finance" with almost all positions more than a month ago, they basically didn't move their positions much.
We should also have this kind of determination and confidence.
The curtain of the bull market has just been opened. 'Big Finance', as the historical vanguard of the bull market, has always been 'the bull market has not moved, but securities have moved first', and in the entire market, most of the smart main capital groups , the same is true for unanimous expectations. In this case...then we must follow this expected logic and invest and operate in accordance with the actual trend of the market. "
Seeing Xu Xiang's speech, Zhou Kan's eyes were full of confidence in the market outlook, and at the same time, he was also full of confidence in the distribution of the fund's holdings in the direction of the main line of "big finance". Let's take it for a long time, continue to lock up positions, and wait for the full realization of the main line of 'big finance'."
Xu Xiang nodded, and then turned his gaze back to the trading board of the two cities.
At this time, the two cities have passed the initial call auction period and entered the real call auction period at 9:20.
And after the first 5 minutes of initial call bidding.
At 9:19, a large number of false pending orders were withdrawn.
Compared with the time of 9:15, the market situation of the two cities has clearly declined, and the general high opening pattern is not so obvious.
Among them, relatively high-ranking mainline fields such as 'infrastructure' and 'military industry' were hit hard yesterday.
It has generally opened slightly lower.
In particular, the stock 'Bluestone Heavy Equipment', which is still attracting a lot of attention from the two cities, has already seen its stock price drop by 4.21% due to the proposed matching transaction order displayed on its market.
Of course, as the majority of investors in the market, as well as the core popular main line of the two cities that the main core institutional groups focus on, the main line of 'big finance', especially the securities sector and Internet finance that have continued to lead the market in the two cities in recent days For the sector, the call auction performance at this moment is still very strong.
The index of the securities sector rose by about 1%.
Among the core constituent stocks in the sector, Western Securities opened higher by 1.55%, Orient Securities opened higher by 1.13%, Huaxin Securities opened higher by 0.89%, and Huashang Securities opened higher by 0.76%. 10% of the stocks opened flat or opened slightly lower.
The performance of the Internet finance sector is even worse than that of the securities sector.
The Internet finance sector index has risen by 1.35% at this moment. The core component stocks in the sector, Flush, completely withstood the selling pressure after failing to close the market yesterday, and opened higher by around 5.21%. Hengsheng Electronics opened higher 2.33%, Jinzheng shares opened 2.11% higher, Dongfang Fortune opened 1.55% higher...
As for the core line of 'technological growth', there was serious differentiation yesterday.
The 'film and television media' segment, which performed the most strongly yesterday, is maintaining a slightly higher opening trend at the moment, while the rest of the sub-line concepts such as 'Internet software', 'Internet application', and 'smart phone industry chain' are gradually falling back. , showing a flat or slightly lower opening trend.
The rest of the main lines are 'big consumption', 'color cycle', 'pharmaceutical business', 'petrochemical industry'...etc.
The performance at this moment has also gradually fallen from the generally high opening at 9:15 to the current generally flat or slightly lower opening.
Finally, when the time gradually moved forward from 9:20 to 9:25.
When the two cities end the call auction.
I saw that the Shanghai Index finally settled at a 0.23% increase and opened only slightly higher; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index maintained a flat opening trend; With the continued strong support of the main line of big finance, it opened higher at 0.21%, and continued to lead the rise of several important core indexes in the two cities.
And, in addition to index performance.
Compared with yesterday, the turnover of the two cities during the entire call auction process has risen again.
This shows that although the mood in the early trading was very good, the internal selling pressure has not been fully digested, and the market differentiation trend, with a high probability, will continue.
Faced with such a market opening situation...
Inside and outside the market, the majority of investor groups feel somewhat lower than expected.
After all, the U.S. stock market rose sharply last night, and the external market trend was booming. Even if there is no substantial positive support on the news, according to everyone's inner expectations, the opening range of the major market core indexes should be at least 0.5% higher. Yes, it is just opening slightly higher, which is obviously significantly lower than expected.
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