The investment era of rebirth

Zhao Lijun paused for a moment and continued to respond: "That's not possible. Now that the market's bull market pattern has been established, it will definitely not end so soon. I just think that the first wave of the bull market's upward trend, at this position, should probably enter It's the end. After all, this kind of continuous crazy upward breakthrough and surge is still difficult to continue when the volume and energy cannot fully keep up, because the rapid advance of the index will rapidly increase countless profit margins.

After the market's previous continuous rise, the short- and medium-term profit orders on the market have accumulated seriously.

Now, there is such a rapid rise.

The crowd of profit-taking funds accumulated in the market is even more serious.

Moreover, this part of the profit-taking funds will most likely be difficult to resist selling when seeing the market soaring rapidly and the chips in hand making huge profits.

That’s why I worry that this kind of continuous short squeeze is going too far. "

"It shouldn't be. Doesn't it mean that the higher the price rises, the less pressure there will be?" Wang Can said, "How come the higher the price rises, the greater the risk?"

"Manager Zhao's analysis is correct." At this time, Zhu Tianyang thought for a while and took over the words, "The bullish sentiment in the market has increased to this extent. In the short term, even if there are good benefits, it will be difficult to stimulate the sentiment again, and this Under such extreme emotions, almost all active long capital forces will quickly rush into the market.

When this wave of active long capital power was quickly exhausted in the exponential surge.

Then, the potential bullish power will naturally decline.

While the power of the bulls is gradually weakening, and after the index has risen sharply, the short- and medium-term profit-making capital groups are still accumulating.

At that time, once the new influx of bull funds is greatly exhausted, it will not be able to effectively take over the market.

The market trend will naturally reverse quickly.

The group of profit-taking funds that have been accumulating will naturally sell chips in a concentrated manner under such circumstances to take profits.

This is also the fundamental logic behind the mutual conversion of long and short market patterns.

After all, although market conditions and individual stock prices are driven by the combined force of factors, the most fundamental driving force is the final combined force of funds.

Once the buying order weakens, the selling order increases sharply, regardless of whether the market has sustained positive conditions.

Naturally, it will be difficult for the stock price and index to maintain an upward trend. "

"But trends generally have a certain degree of inertia." After hearing the concerns of Zhu Tianyang and Zhao Lijun, Liu Yuan, who pondered for a while, also responded at this time, "As long as the bull market pattern of the market remains unchanged, the macro fundamentals that support the bull market will , and the most important thing is that the attitude of the regulators remains unchanged, and the underlying investment logic of the entire bull market is still there, then the long-term upward trend of the market will not change.

As for short-term trend changes and short- and medium-term adjustments, they should also be benign adjustments.

What's more, in the current market, the entire investment sentiment and investment confidence have developed into a quite radical situation.

Under this situation, the high-quality chips on the market will always receive the attention of the continuous influx of incremental funds.

In the entire market, there are only so many core mainline weight stocks and high-quality growth stocks with strong investment logic and strong expectation logic...

In other words, the number of high-quality chips in the market is limited.

The result of limited chips and the continuous influx of incremental funds is that as the market progresses, the stock prices of high-quality chips will only get higher and higher.

So I think the market will have demand for short- and medium-term adjustments.

We should also hold on to the high-quality chips in our hands, not be afraid of adjustments, and continue to look to the future. "

"Guobing, what do you think?" After hearing the discussion of several people, Li Meng, who was sitting next to the main control computer in the trading room, looked at the people and pondered for a while. He did not directly express his opinion, but turned his attention to the people who had been talking about it. Zhang Guobing, who has unique insights into market interpretation, asked, "What do you think of the current market trend?"

Zhang Guobing pondered for a moment, looked away from the computer screen in front of him, stood up and said: "Back to Mr. Li, I think we still need to adjust our trading strategy, gradually shrink the range of positions, reduce positions and stop profits, and harvest immediately. The market profits are rapidly expanding.”

"Oh?" Li Meng looked slightly surprised and said with a smile, "Tell me more specifically."

Zhang Guobing paused for a while before continuing: "On the whole, the macro fundamentals are improving, and the trend of the external market is also improving. At the same time, the regulators are continuing to release good news to the market, and the macro capital is also improving. Continue to develop in a good direction.

Analyzing the underlying logic of the bull market in the entire market, there is still no problem with the logic of the continuation of the bull market.

In other words, the macro trend of the bull market will definitely not end here.

However, as asset managers of fund products, in addition to analyzing macro trends, our first responsibility is to be responsible for the net value of the fund products we manage and to the investors who trust us.

They are responsible for the net value of the fund products.

Then our first consideration is the trend of the fund's net value.

Managers Zhao and Zhu have just analyzed that the current market has reached this position, and the short- and medium-term profits have been piled up too seriously.

As far as the current board is concerned...

The potential long financial power and the potential short financial power have shown a reversal of strength.

As the market continues to rise in a short squeeze, the former bulls will also become today's bears, and the bears who were completely short before, or even short sellers, may develop into the bulls at this moment.

The long and short forms of the market, as well as the long and short forces, are not static as the market continues to change.

We need to clearly understand the market and know which market stage the market has developed into.

When the market's long and short capital forces and the strong and weak patterns have begun to reverse, no matter whether the market is currently continuing to rise or is consolidating, an adjustment trend is inevitable.

The excessive accumulation of short- and medium-term profit-taking funds cannot be quickly digested through the continuous rise of the index and the exchange of hands as before.

What's more, the index has continued to rise before, so it is possible to digest profits while adjusting the chip structure.

That's because the general market sentiment at that time was not as crazy as it is now. In the entire market, there were many people who were short and bullish at that time.

As the saying goes, if there are differences, there will be market trends.

And if there are disagreements, there is the core point of the market, that is, disagreements will cause changes in hands, will lead to continuous changes in the chip structure, and will cause the chips in the field to constantly change hands, so that the profit margin will always remain in a relatively constant state. , so as not to cause too much sustained pressure on the market. However, the current investment sentiment of the entire market has completely shifted to a consistent bullish atmosphere.

That is to say, the short sellers on the surface are completely dead.

The so-called shorts will not die, but the longs will continue. In this way, no one in the entire market continues to be bearish, so the profit-making chips on the market will naturally fall into a short-term lock-up and further rapid accumulation.

Under this situation, once the bulls are weak, they will not be able to fully support the market's sustained and substantial upward breakthrough.

Then, the large number of profit-taking orders that continue to be locked up now will inevitably lead to a surge of profits.

At that time, the market will naturally undergo continuous and violent adjustments to digest the profit-making chips that have poured out of the market.

However, the current transaction volume of the two cities is approaching the trillion-dollar mark.

Moreover, the recent rate of new energy additions is gradually decreasing.

In other words, almost all of the new active capital groups that can come in in the short to medium term have already entered the market.

With subsequent changes in the macro-capital landscape and the further release of monetary liquidity, even if there are still large-scale new capital groups waiting to enter the market, it will take enough time to react and brew.

Therefore, if the current long and short forces in the market are reversed, the market will fall into adjustment.

In order to fully digest the huge profit-making chips since 3000 points, as well as the huge newly added unwinding chips above 3000 points.

It definitely takes a lot of time to digest.

That is to say, the space and time for market adjustment may be beyond the expectations of most current investor groups.

Of course, even if the possible market adjustment space and time are reduced, as long as the underlying logic of the bull market still exists, it will still be a benign adjustment.

It just comes down to the transaction level...

Now that we have understood that there is a high probability that there will be a benign correction point with a long time and space adjustment time, if we do not make corresponding changes in trading strategies, it will inevitably lead to a sharp retracement of the net value of fund products, or in other words A lot of subsequent market opportunities will be wasted.

What's more, every year-end mark.

Basically, it is a day when institutions in the industry make large-scale position adjustments or settle the net value of corresponding fund products.

At this juncture, the financial situation will not be particularly abundant. With the market conditions already beginning to exceed expectations, it may be difficult to achieve new heights.

At least among the majority of investors in the market, it is generally expected that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will hit the 4000-point mark.

It's highly unlikely.

Therefore, I suggest that we actually start preparations for year-end net worth liquidation now, gradually reduce the position weight of our fund products, and carry out gradual position reduction and profit-taking operations in accordance with the order of individual stock positions from weak to strong.

Only at this time, reduce the position and stop the profit, vacate the position, and leave the cash amount.

Then we will wait for the severe accumulation of profit-taking and arbitrage funds in the market to come out, so that we can regain what we think is the core main line of high-quality chips at the subsequent relatively low correction level. "

"But before Master left, didn't he ask us to keep the dynamic position level and not change it?" After listening to Zhang Guobing's market analysis, Liu Yuan subconsciously retorted, "And the current market does not show any signs of possible adjustment. , whether it is a popular main-line weighted stock or a group of fringe main-line component stocks, the market coverage is very good, and there is basically no money-losing effect in the market. At the same time, today’s market volume continues to increase.”

Zhang Guobing then responded: "Although there are no signs of adjustment in the current market, it can be felt that even in the core main line field, the market trend between strong popular stocks and general core main line component stocks has already shown a complete trend. The situation is divided. What does this trend mean? Manager Liu must have his own unique understanding. He can understand that the potential long and short forces in the market have reached the critical point of transformation, right?

What's more, everyone knows that our company has several main fund products.

The current total position volume has reached 2000 billion. For such a large-scale position, if we really have to wait until the market situation changes completely, or the majority of the market investors have realized that the market situation has turned to a long-short position. For a moment, if we reduce our positions and take profits...

I believe that our ‘Yu Hang Series’ related trading seats have a strong influence on the entire market.

There is a high probability that we will not be able to get out, and we will not be able to achieve the trading strategy effect we need at all.

After all, if funds of our size are really large-scale and take profits out of the market in a short period of time, they will not be able to hide on the market. Once they are exposed on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, other major financial groups, as well as If a large number of retail investors follow suit, there will be no hope of successfully reducing their positions and taking profits.

Therefore, we must predict market changes and make effective strategic changes in advance. "

"Guobing is right." After listening to all Zhang Guobing's analysis, Li Meng thought carefully for a moment, nodded with a smile, and responded, "The most essential difference in investment strategies between small funds and large funds is Liquidity, our current position volume, no matter what investment strategy is implemented, we must first consider liquidity factors.

Regardless of whether it is the position building stage or the position reduction stage.

Once the market reaches a long-short position, it will be very disadvantageous for us to start implementing corresponding investment strategies.

The so-called bull market does not mean that the market will continue to rise. We adhere to the long-term bull market thinking unwaveringly, but we still need to pay special attention to controlling the retracement.

At the same time, under the execution of corresponding strategies.

In the case of prioritizing liquidity, we must also learn to take the initiative to give up some profits that seem to be easily obtained, so as to avoid some possible risks.

When Mr. Su left, he did say that the dynamic position level of the fund would remain unchanged.

However, it has also been said that if there are extreme market changes, we still need to learn to proactively adjust our strategies to deal with the extreme market conditions. "

After speaking, Li Meng glanced at everyone with a smile.

Later, seeing that no one had any other opinions, I prepared to continue to instruct everyone to change the previous investment strategy in a timely manner. According to the idea of ​​"from weak to strong" mentioned by Zhang Guobing, gradually reduce the positions of stocks held by major fund products accordingly. Take profit operation.

But I didn't expect that at this time...

Su Yu suddenly opened the door of the trading room and walked in with a smile. (End of chapter)