The investment era of rebirth

"So, is our current investment strategy and trading strategy still to reduce positions and take profits on highs?" He Hong asked with a smile after hearing Xu Zhongji's words.

Xu Zhongji nodded and said: "Of course, when the chip structure of the two cities has not been readjusted and the market has not given a clear signal of the end of the adjustment, we still have to stick to the previous investment strategy and trading strategy and keep our positions low. operating situation.

Of course, in the meantime.

The focus must also be on the changes in positions of the main fund products of the 'Yu Hang Group' managed by Mr. Su.

It has been more than two months since the net worth of this main force was disclosed. At the end of the year, the other party should disclose new changes in net worth, so let’s take a look first. "

"Okay." He Hong nodded and said, "What are Mr. Xu's thoughts on the changes in the main lines of the two cities? Currently, the core lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are As well as sectors such as 'film and television media' and 'sub-new stocks'.

Its chip structure is already fully dispersed.

In addition, these popular core main lines have been hyped to relatively high stock prices by various funds in the past period, overdrawing short- and medium-term expectations.

Now, look at the market and the trend of the market.

It seems that the main line of the market is obviously changing and switching.

Among them, the core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'medicine' have a trend pattern that is obviously stronger than the market. Mr. Xu feels that these core main lines have gathered the main funds. Hype and replace the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', will it become the source of rising market prices again and lead to an opportunity for market breakthrough? "

Xu Zhongji thought for a while and responded: "The 'big consumption' and 'pharmaceutical' sectors are originally defensive sectors in a bear market. The current strength of these two sectors can only show that the funds on the market and the risk appetite of investment are decreasing. , but it does not mean that these two major sectors have the ability to replace the main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' and complete the market switching and rotation of the main line of the market. After all, the fundamentals of these two major sectors, in fact, currently do not exist. There are obvious signs of reversal.

Since there is no expected stimulus from a change in fundamentals, there is no expected stimulus from a burst of short- to medium-term performance.

So, these two main lines want to replace 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' to create a trend effect, and even lead the market prices of the two cities to continue to rise.

The probability is still low.

As for the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

From a fundamental point of view, these two core main lines have strong enough short- and medium-term expectations in the future, and they also have a certain ability to explode in short- and medium-term performance.

However, these two main lines have been repeatedly speculated by various funds in the past two years.

Whether it is valuation or the stock price position of related core stocks, it is not low at present. Compared with the two core main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', related core stocks and popular weight stocks, whether it is in There is not much advantage in terms of valuation or future expectations.

What's more, although these two main lines have taken a long time to adjust.

However, since the future expectations of these two main lines are basically clear-cut, everyone knows that the industry development and fundamental conditions of these two main lines will not be too bad.

Therefore, a number of investment institutions and major financial groups have gathered in these two main areas.

There has never been an obvious large-scale exit.

In other words, it seems that the adjustment time of these two main lines has been long enough, but its chip structure cannot be said to be very clean, and the market pressure for continuous upward breakthroughs cannot be said to be how low it is.

Moreover, due to these two main areas, there are corresponding volume issues.

These two main lines cannot independently lead the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index to break through upward.

In fact, the market interpretation with these two main lines as the core hype path was performed last year, and it was simply unable to effectively drive the continued long sentiment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the entire market, and create a bull market effect.

So, I judge...

In the future, the market must return to an obvious upward channel.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index wants to complete a breakthrough to 4000 points, and even a breakthrough to 5000 points in the future.

It is impossible to miss the assists of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', and it is impossible to rely on other core main lines to achieve a main breakthrough.

After all, look at the entire market.

Even though the internal chip structure of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' has been temporarily dispersed, major funds from all walks of life have made many short-term moves to lighten their positions and stop profits.

But let’s stretch out the timeline a little bit.

Under the strong feedback of bull market expectations, under the continuous and in-depth implementation of the macroeconomic strategic plan of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', and under the background of 'reform and reorganization of central and state-owned enterprises', 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' These two core main lines will obviously have the motivation to continue speculation, as well as the expectation that fundamentals will continue to improve and performance will continue to explode.

And, it turns out.

Only these two core main lines can support the entire bull market logic and expectations of the market.

Therefore, if the subsequent market wants to rise again, if the bull market expectations and trends are to continue, it will most likely depend on the trends of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', and the subsequent core main lines of the market will Development will most likely revolve around these two core lines.

What we have to do at this time is to wait.

We are waiting for the adjustment of the chip structure in the two core main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' to be completed during the continuous trading process in the market.

Then at a relatively low level, we regain the chips we lost to take profit.

Complete the rearrangement of positions. "

"Will the subsequent market trend also revolve around the two core themes of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'?" After listening to Xu Zhongji's words, He Hong thought about it, but still felt that he was not so convinced, and said, "If this is really the case, So why does the 'Yu Hang Series', the main fund product under the leadership of Mr. Su, need to reduce positions and take profits on a large scale? After a large-scale reduction of positions and take profits at this position, it will be certain that their large capital volume can be used at a low level. Get the chips back?”

Xu Zhongji chuckled softly, pondered for a moment, and responded: "It's hard to guess. Mr. Su of the 'Yu Hang Department' has always been unpredictable in his trading ideas and investment strategies. , except for himself and the core fund management members within the 'Yu Hang Group', there is a high probability that no one knows what he thinks.

But I guess, the 'Yuhang Department' is the main source of funds.

No matter how much they have reduced their current positions or how much they have reduced their positions, the direction of this main force's future re-establishment of positions is absolutely inseparable from the two core lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

Now that we have determined the fundamental expected logic of these two main lines, as well as the long-term macro logic, there is no problem at all. The underlying logic is still there, it is just a problem with the chip structure, then our eyes only need to focus on These two core main lines will suffice.

As long as you keep an eye on these two core main lines, you will not be unable to keep up with the market or miss the main line market opportunities. " "good. "He Hong nodded and said, "Then my subsequent investment strategies and trading strategies will continue to be built around the two core themes of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'. "

Xu Zhongji nodded and said with a smile: "No problem, let's do it."

After saying that, Xu Zhongji and He Hong once again turned their attention back to the two markets where they were trading.

And the same moment.

In the main fund trading room of 'Jingda Investment' in Yuhang, the company's general manager Gu Chijiang stared at the market trends of the two cities and asked the same question as He Hong, saying: "The market rebounded today. However, I always feel that the strength of the rebound is much different. Although the core main lines of "big consumption", "medicine", "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" have rebounded strongly, they have still not formed a consensus on the market. Emotional expectations, various funds are also hesitant to follow the trend and go long.

On the other hand, look at the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

After the rapid correction in the previous three days, the current influx of market copycats and the situation of various funds following the trend and going long are actually worse than those of 'big consumption', 'medicine', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain'. 'These main areas appear to be stronger.

However, the selling pressure in the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' is still very serious.

At this time, even if there are a lot of bottom-buying funds and long-selling funds following up, it cannot reverse the market trend and market development trend.

Let’s analyze the current market trend.

It feels that the core lines of 'big consumption', 'medicine', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' want to replace the early stages of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' The core main line, the complete market rotation on the main line market, and the stabilization of several major market indexes at this position, forming the end form of the callback, are still a bit problematic! "

Hearing Gu Chijiang's sigh, Lin Tingzong, the company's main fund product manager, who was sitting next to Gu Chijiang and also watching the market trends of the two cities, squinted his eyes, thought for a while, and said with a smile: "I think 'big consumption' , 'medicine', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain' are simply not capable of replacing the core concepts of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' The main line, at this position, completes the switch of the main line of the market and reverses the trend of continuous market adjustment."

"Why do you say that?" Gu Chijiang asked.

Lin Tingzong responded: "Actually, to put it bluntly, it is still a problem of expectations. The main areas of 'big consumption', 'medicine', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain' are still poor in short- and medium-term expectations." There are quite a lot of these two main lines, "Big Finance' and 'Big Infrastructure'."

Gu Chijiang thought for a while and replied: "That's true."

"So, I think our next focus must be on the two core lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'." Lin Tingzong said, "In the final analysis, this round of bull market is driven by these two core lines. The market trend of these two core main lines has obviously kidnapped the market.

As long as the market trend of these two main lines is not good, the trend of the market will not be much better.

As long as these two main lines do not bottom out in the short to medium term, the market adjustment trend will not end quickly. "

"So you think the Shanghai Index is not stable at this position near 3500 points?" Gu Chijiang asked.

Lin Tingzong responded: "I think it must be unstable. Whether the 3500 point position can be stable is not due to the relatively strong performance of 'big consumption', 'medicine', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphones' on the market at this moment." The industrial chain is determined by the two core main lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

At present, there are two core lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

Although it was said that there was a short-term wave of bargain hunting by major funds and the intervention of large quantities of chassis buying.

However, the pressure to reduce positions and the market selling pressure caused by the large amount of chips sold by the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' have not yet been resolved.

Moreover, this is only a short period of three or two days.

How can it be so easy to clean up all the profits and arbitrage accumulated in the past few months or even a whole year?

Furthermore, the entire market is currently in a news vacuum period.

There are not enough positive expectations to help the two core lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' quickly clear up profits and unwind arbitrage chips.

Generally, there is a vacuum period in the news, when the chip structure is completely dispersed.

It can only be to exchange time for space.

I think...'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' are the two core themes that support the bull market and are closely related to the market's bull market structure.

To truly stabilize.

It also depends on how the performance of major relevant industry sectors, their corresponding component stocks, and popular concept stocks are reflected in the annual report preview in January.

If in January, these two main areas are related to popular stocks.

The performance forecasts disclosed generally exceeded expectations.

Then, it proves that the macro logic and medium- and long-term logic of the two core main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' are completely unproblematic.

It will then be able to stabilize and regain momentum for rising prices.

The performance forecasts disclosed are generally lower than expected.

So, it shows that the two core lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' are indeed a bit too overdrafted in terms of medium and long-term investment logic and hype logic. Most of the market will continue to adjust, waiting for these two major A comprehensive reversal of the core main line fundamentals.

But whether the performance of these two main lines exceeded expectations or fell below expectations.

One thing that is certain is that before the performance disclosure period of these two core main lines arrives in January.

In the current information disclosure vacuum period and positive vacuum period, the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' will probably not have sustainable market trends.

However, these two core main lines that support the market situation have no sustainable market trends.

So, it's natural.

Naturally, there is no sustained market trend or trend reversal in the market of the two cities. In other words... it is initially expected that the adjustment time of the market will be in January, or even after January. For now, , it should be just a short-term rebound on the way to a downward correction. We don’t need to pay too much attention to this position at this time.

In terms of overall investment strategy and trading strategy.

My suggestion is to maintain our previous trading strategy and investment strategy, that is, continue to reduce positions and take profits in stocks held in the main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', and reduce the position of our fund to a safer position. Then wait for the market to fall to the point where the expectations become clearer, and then buy back the chips more calmly at the bottom. "(End of chapter)