The investment era of rebirth

Zhou Kan thought for a while and responded: "Isn't the expectation of macroeconomic recovery a continued long-term benefit for 'big consumption'? As the economy recovers and everyone's income increases, consumption upgrades should be expected, right?" I feel that the whole "big consumption" can transcend bulls and bears, and it follows this logic.

As for the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

Although the upgrading of smartphones and the process of replacing feature phones with smartphones has been basically completed, the penetration rate of smartphones has begun to gradually decline.

But the total market volume is growing. Isn’t this expected?

And as smart phones completely replace the feature phone market, as smart phones are fully popularized into the hands of all users.

The continued explosion of mobile Internet is also expected.

Of course, the expectations regarding these two aspects are, as you said, boss. Many institutions in the industry and the broad investor group can expect this result.

And these are also the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

The adjustment time is so long, the chip structure has not been consolidated for a long time, and there are many fundamental reasons for the failure of these two core main areas.

In general, compare the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

Analyze from a macro and long-term perspective.

In fact, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' are still in no way inferior.

It’s just that policy expectations may not be that strong.

After all, 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', 'China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone Construction', 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone', 'New Urbanization Construction', 'Reform and Reorganization of Central and State-owned Enterprises' , 'Military Asset Securitization'...these are sustained benefits driven by strong policy and stimulus.

But, for now...

After a year of continuous capital speculation and continuous rise.

At present, the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are obviously expected to be overdrawn.

In this case, the theme of "high-low switching" in the market is consistent.

The three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', which also have long-term logical expectations, have replaced 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' with low position advantages and chip structure advantages. 'The market trend of the three core main lines.

This completes the market's switching on the main line market trend.

I think it is reasonable and not too surprising. "

After listening to Zhou Kan's analysis of the market, Xu Xiang smiled and said: "In addition to the 'chip structure' advantage you just mentioned, the three advantages of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' Comparing the advantages of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', no matter which direction it is, it is obviously untenable.

Let’s talk about the macro recovery of the economy first.

You know, no matter how strong the policy is, even if the economy recovers, consumption will be the last link.

First of all, what will recover on a large scale and on a large scale will definitely be related industry sectors in the core main field of "big infrastructure". After all, our country's current macroeconomic strategy is an economic development policy with the "real estate economy" as the core. Didn’t you see that we have been talking about loosening restrictions on the property market for a long time?

Don’t you see that in the market, steel, cement, and other building materials are already at the end of overcapacity reduction?

Already in the darkest hour before dawn?

Since consumption is the last link, and the priority for recovery must be infrastructure and real estate, then why should we abandon infrastructure and real estate for the near and distant, and instead go to the so-called 'big consumption' field?

Just because the main line of 'big consumption' has been rising well these days?

As I said before, when we invest, we cannot let short-term market trends and temporary disk performance affect our judgment of the underlying logic of the market.

We must have the spirit of not being afraid of the floating clouds that may obscure our vision. We must not let a leaf obscure our vision.

Let’s talk about the main line of ‘big finance’.

In the same way, is it a bull market now? Has the market transaction volume surged five or six times compared to the beginning of the year? In the expected direction, do financial stocks have the potential to explode in short-term performance? These expectations...should be clearer than the so-called 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', right?

If this is the case, then why should we abandon the main line of 'big finance' and pursue the two major expectations of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'? It is difficult to emerge in the main line area that exceeds expectations under the well-known situation. Woolen cloth? Of course... Among them, the 'Internet Finance' sector is another one.

The current trend of this sector is following the main line of 'big finance'.

It basically has nothing to do with the so-called 'mobile Internet' concept theme.

As for the main line of 'military industry', as for the underlying logic just now, you have already said that the long-term increase in 'defense expenditure' in the future is basically certain, and the 'securitization of military industry assets' is also a set tone. There are these two long-term expectations. , the 'military industry' has embarked on a long-term growth cycle that lasted for two to three years, which is basically expected.

Taken together, there are three core lines: 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

In terms of the underlying logic, in the logic of mid- to long-term expectations, in terms of policy expectations, and in terms of the continued policy outpouring and stimulus intensity, there is no problem.

The reason why these three core main lines are currently weakening is that they are in continuous adjustment.

The only reason is that it rose too fast and too sharply in the early stage, accumulating too many short- and medium-term profit orders, which led to instability in the chip structure.

in other words……

At present, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' are compared with the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'. The only advantage is the chip structure. On the contrary, compared with the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', compared with the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', the only The only disadvantage is that the chip structure is chaotic.

Let’s look at the expected logic of the three core main lines of ‘big consumption’, ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’ you just mentioned.

'Big consumption' areas, such as the home appliance sector.

It is a typical real estate-related sector. If the property market is strong, the home appliance sector will be strong. If the property market is down, the home appliance sector will also be quite sluggish.

Retail, automobile, food, beverage and other consumer sectors.

In addition to daily necessities, we can only wait for the so-called 'consumption upgrade' to improve the fundamentals of the industry.

Especially the automobile industry sector, in the absence of new technological innovations, can only wait for consumption upgrades. But when can consumption be upgraded? Nobody knows. So the future expectations of the entire 'big consumption' field.

It seems very clear, but after careful analysis, it is not as beautiful as it seems.

As for the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

It is true that the market size of 'mobile Internet' is expanding rapidly, and the number of mobile Internet users is growing explosively, but what about the performance of related industry sectors?

How Internet companies monetize traffic has always been a huge problem.

In the mobile Internet era, does this problem no longer exist?

What's more, how many Internet companies listed on domestic A-shares have high corporate moats and core corporate competitiveness?

Basically no?

In this case, with almost clear-cut expectations, where does the difference in expectations come from, and where does the room for excess profit investment come from?

As for the 'smartphone industry chain' line, currently, the only one with relatively clear expectations is the 'Apple industry chain' line. There is currently no hope for other sectors such as electronic information and semiconductors. There is no expectation that the performance will continue to explode.

Can rely solely on the 'Apple industry chain' branch.

Can it support the main trend of the entire 'smartphone industry chain'? I don't think it's possible? "

In fact, we have to say that small and medium-cap and GEM are pointing in the direction, that is, in the direction of small- and medium-cap growth stocks. It is currently expected to be relatively clear industry sectors and thematic investment directions.

I think the line of 'film and television media' is obviously stronger than the so-called 'big consumption', 'smartphone industry chain', 'mobile Internet' and other core lines.

After all, with the increase in the number of large screens in the country, as well as box office subsidies and the country's continued policy support in the field of 'film and television', this industry, which can be described as a wild market, clearly has the potential to explode. According to the box office trends of movies in each quarter of this year .

It can be seen that the entire domestic film market has indeed fully recovered.

It's just that the industry sector of 'film and television media' is too small to support large funds. Naturally, it cannot support the entire market and can only follow the trend. "

"The film and television media sector has indeed been very strong recently." Zhou Kan said, "In this sector, when the core main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' were rising before, they also followed the rise. Now the market The direction of short-term speculation has shifted to the main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', and the 'film and television media' sector has actually followed suit.

This is a bit of an independent trend.

In fact, in the first half of the year, the wave in June was when the "film and television media" concentrated on releasing good news.

Many institutions in the industry have invested heavily in building positions in this sector. From the perspective of long-term investment logic, it is not wrong.

In fact, in the entire 'film and television media' sector, the trends and gains of a number of core stocks during the year are not inferior to those of related core stocks and stocks in the main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'. Popular stocks, even stocks like Huayi Brothers and Huace Film and Television, have increased more than three times.

But, this section.

It does have flaws, as you said, boss.

That is, the market value of the sector is too small and the circulation is limited. It cannot carry core main funds like the 'Yu Hang Series', nor can it drive the rise of the entire market. It can only form a small-scale profit-making effect.

Just like at this moment, the market of the 'Film and Television Media' sector has exploded.

However, the money-making effect of core industry sectors related to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and ChiNext Index has still not been driven.

However, it is not suitable for the main capital layout like the 'Yu Hang Series'.

For funds of our size, it is quite suitable.

I feel that since the logic of the 'film and television media' line is clear and future expectations are strong, the fundamentals of the entire industry are undergoing a comprehensive transformation, and the short- and medium-term performance of related listed companies are also very explosive.

So, I think it is more appropriate for us to make appropriate arrangements in this direction and increase some positions. "

Xu Xiang thought for a moment and responded with a smile: "I think there is no problem in increasing the stakes in the 'film and television media' line and increasing the weight of the 'film and television media' line in our fund holdings. , you can try this, but I think we should be cautious about the layout of the three core main areas of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

As long as the market is open as usual.

In fact, there is never a shortage of opportunities to buy chips.

If we are unsure about the future market development, we might as well take another look.

In the bull market, there is actually no problem with allowing 10% or 20% space fault tolerance. Whether it is a left-side layout or a right-side layout, it is both appropriate and within time. "

"Okay!" After listening to Xu Xiang's analysis of the market just now, Zhou Kan actually understood the underlying logical issues Xu Xiang mentioned, regarding the so-called market main line switching, as well as the changes in 'big consumption' and 'smart intelligence'. The layout of the main line fields such as the mobile phone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' is no longer so persistent. He couldn't help but smile and said, "Then let's try to buy some chips in the 'film and television media' field first. Regarding the layout of other main line fields, , we still maintain the previous strategic plan and maintain the strategy of watching more and moving less."

Xu Xiang nodded with a smile and said: "That's right. Just follow what you just said. I haven't seen any clear movement of positions by the main funds of the 'Yuhang Department', and at the same time, there has been no obvious shrinkage in the market." When there are signs of the end of the adjustment, we need to maintain a relatively low position, watch more and move less, and wait for changes in the market.

Patience is the most important skill in trading.

We trade in the financial market and want to obtain sufficient profits through the financial market.

Then you must learn to be like a hunter, able to hold a shotgun in the ice and snow and wait motionless for a long time, waiting for the prey to gradually appear within the range of the shotgun. You can neither leave early without patience, nor leave before the prey is there. When he reaches the shooting range, he shoots randomly to scare away the prey. "

"Okay!" Zhou Kan nodded again.

Immediately, according to the strategy plan discussed by the two people just now, relevant trading instructions were issued to the traders behind them.

Later, when the order is issued, it is completed.

Zhou Kan once again turned his attention back to the trading boards of the two cities.

I saw that the trading time of the two cities at this time has reached around 10:50, and the major indexes of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and ChiNext Index have all exceeded 1% under the continuous rebound trend. The increase rarely shows a general trend. (End of chapter)