Reborn in Hong Kong as a Tycoon

Chapter 328

"Since Hutchison Whampoa was short-sold by securities lending, it is natural to borrow stocks to sell. Theoretically, the maximum amount that can be short-sold is 100% of Hutchison Whampoa's total shares, but the actual situation is naturally impossible to have that many. .”

"Before that, it is necessary for us to take stock of the holdings of Hutchison Whampoa before being short-sold."

"From the shareholder's shareholding in Hutchison Whampoa's third quarterly report, it can be seen that Mr. Lin holds 49.9% of Hutchison Whampoa's shares, a total of 1.996 million shares, of which 9000 million shares are pledged to HSBC Bank, so he holds tradable shares. The number of shares is 1.096 million shares. Mr. Lin has announced that he will not reduce his holdings of Hutchison Whampoa shares, so it is impossible for the short side to short the [-] million shares.”

"The second largest shareholder under Mr. Lin is HSBC. The third quarterly report shows that HSBC holds 15% of Hutchison Whampoa's shares, totaling 6000 million shares. HSBC has margin financing and securities lending business, plus the 9000 shares pledged by Mr. Lin to HSBC. The short side can borrow 1.5 million shares from HSBC, which can be used to sell short.”

"The remaining 35% of Hutchison Whampoa's shares are mostly in the hands of retail investors except for the large amount of funds in certain institutions, and the short side has no way to borrow stocks from retail investors to sell. empty."

"Therefore, I have reason to think that the short side can sell no more than 1.5 million shares, not even as many as 1.5 million shares. After all, Mr. Lin pledged 9000 million shares to HSBC, and HSBC may not dare to borrow all of them. If the short side bursts its position and cannot buy it back, then HSBC will buy the stock itself and return it to Mr. Lin, and HSBC will suffer a huge loss at that time.”

"Let's talk about shorting again. The negative news about Hutchison Whampoa appeared on the weekend of last week. This Monday, Hutchison Whampoa's stock price began to plunge, from around HK$37 before it was shorted to below HK$30."

"Since the short side wants to make money by selling high and buying low, the short side will inevitably sell a large number of stocks before the stock price plunges. Only in this way can the short side make money by buying back the stocks at a low price after the stock price plummets. .”

"Since it is deliberate shorting, the number of stocks sold by the short side will definitely not be small. It is more likely to be between 5% and 10% of the total number of shares. We take the middle value, then the number of stocks sold by the short side before That's 3000 million shares."

"On Monday, the stock price of Hutchison Whampoa fell sharply due to negative news, but after the stock price fell below 25 Hong Kong dollars, a large amount of funds took over, and a long-short battle broke out. Later, according to statistics, the transaction amount during that period exceeded 10 billion Hong Kong dollars. Calculated based on the stock price being less than 25 Hong Kong dollars, the trading volume exceeds 4000 million shares. Even if a small part of them are sold by retail investors, most of them must be sold by short parties. Here we estimate short-side sales 4000 million shares were issued."

"The stock price of Hutchison Whampoa did not fluctuate much on Monday afternoon and Tuesday. It was in shock. There was no movement from both sides, so we won't say much here."

"As of today's Wednesday, the stock price of Hutchison Whampoa was suppressed again, but at 21 Hong Kong dollars, the short side encountered stubborn resistance from many sides, and the long-short battle broke out again. This time, the transaction amount at the price of 21 Hong Kong dollars was calculated to exceed 11 billion Hong Kong dollars, at a price of 21 Hong Kong dollars per share, the trading volume exceeds 5000 million shares.”

"Although there should be a small number of retail investors selling out of the 5000 million shares, the short side needs to sell a lot of stocks first to suppress the stock price to 21 Hong Kong dollars, so I personally think that the short side sold 5000 million shares here. .”

"After that, the stock price fell below 20 Hong Kong dollars. Around 5:2000 in the afternoon, some funds entered the market to buy bottoms, and the short side encountered resistance again. At that time, the transaction amount was about [-] million Hong Kong dollars. Even if some retail investors sold , the number of shares sold by the short side must not be less than [-] million shares."

"In this way, the short side sells at least 1.4 million shares. Of course, when the short side beats the long side, the stock price is in shock, and the short side will inevitably absorb money, but according to the trading volume statistics , the chips raised by the short side will not exceed 2000 million shares, so we will calculate with 2000 million shares, which means that the short side will eventually sell no less than 1.2 million shares."

"As we said earlier, the short side can borrow up to 1.5 million shares. Now that the short side has sold 1.2 million shares, they can only borrow another 3000 million shares at most. But we need to know that HSBC announced that it will reduce its holdings. It is said that at least 2000 million shares will be reduced, which means that the maximum number of shares that the short side can borrow is 1000 million shares, and the short side has no bargaining chips."

"Some people may not believe these statistics, but we need to know that just after three o'clock in the afternoon, Hutchison Whampoa announced the repurchase plan, and then entered the market to buy a large number of Hutchison Whampoa shares. There was no symbolic resistance, and the stock price was quickly raised to a level close to 30 Hong Kong dollars, and the final closing price was also above 25 Hong Kong dollars.”

"If the short side still has a lot of bargaining chips in their hands, how can the short side just watch the stock price go up? The short side will only desperately suppress the stock price, but the short side has done nothing. This is the iron proof that the short side has no bargaining chips. .”

"The reason why I say so much is to let everyone understand the power of both long and short sides. In the case of Hutchison Whampoa being shorted, if you can't understand who is stronger between the long and short sides, then it is inappropriate to get involved , After all, the stock price has gone up and down too much, and retail investors may not be able to bear the extremely volatile ups and downs."

"Obviously, if there are no major surprises, the short side has failed this time, and the stock price of Hutchison Whampoa will rebound in the future, but it depends on the long side at what price it can rebound to. If the long side has no disagreement, but agrees to If the short side is blown up, the stock price will inevitably skyrocket; if there are more off-market funds entering the market to go long and want to get a piece of the pie, no one knows what price the stock price will rise to."

"Conversely, if there is a disagreement between the multiple parties and they choose to take a profit and leave the market after the stock price has risen to a certain price, then even if the short party needs to buy back the stock, the stock price will only be in shock, and the possibility of it rising again is not great. However, Because the short side has to buy back a large number of short-sold stocks, it is difficult for the stock price to fall, and everyone does not have to worry about a sharp drop in the stock price.”

"Of course, although the short side has no bargaining chips and is basically doomed to lose, there is a contingency in everything, so I can't guarantee that the long side will definitely win. Therefore, I don't recommend everyone to buy Hutchison Whampoa stocks. , It’s just that some investors want to listen to our analysis, so I just express my personal opinion, which is not the basis for recommending stocks.”

"The teacher is right. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. What we do on the financial channel is only stock analysis, and we don't recommend any stocks. It is up to investors to judge whether they want to buy a certain stock."

The hostess took the words and made a summary.

After that, the hostess talked about other stocks, and the experts continued to analyze until the end of the 10-minute program.

Tonight's program can be said to be arranged by Lin Baicheng. He provided a lot of data, and the analysis of experts is also biased towards the multi-party. It is almost saying that the short side is doomed, and let the majority of investors join the multi-party army.

Although it was stated at the end of the show that it is not recommended to buy Hutchison Whampoa stocks, this is just a cover-up and trickery.Anyone who has watched the program will know that the short side who shorted Hutchison Whampoa has already lost, and the possibility of making money by buying Hutchison Whampoa stocks is very high. It is conceivable how investors will choose.

The British family will use negative news to block the stock price of Hutchison Whampoa. Of course, Lin Baicheng will also create positive news to increase the stock price, and he will not only do this, but also have means behind it.

(End of this chapter)