Yanzi Valley of Jingcheng

Chapter 151 Did a good deed

Xiao Jie is sitting in the gazebo of the Yanzigu community at the moment, and there is a large bag of fruit on the round stone table of the gazebo.

Today is Xiao Jie’s third aunt’s birthday. Aunt Xiao forced Xiao Jie to come to Yanzi Valley for dinner. After eating and chatting with the elders, it was almost 11 o’clock in the evening. (Xiao Jie's cousin) Xiao Ran's puppy love and other topics, when Xiao Jie came out, Aunt Xiao stuffed him with a bag of fruit, and asked: "Help me bring it to Guan Sha, last time the script killed the guest she invited."

"It's so late...can you give it yourself tomorrow?"

"There are bananas in here!" Aunt Xiao put her hands on her hips, "Give it as soon as possible! Otherwise it will be broken! You have to go down anyway, her house is in building 3, 42nd floor, 3428, go quickly!"

Just as Xiao Jie was about to say something, the door was already closed with a "bang" by Aunt Xiao.

Xiao Jie opened the bag and saw that there were apples, dragon fruit and bananas in it. There were more than a dozen bananas in a row, and they were all green and unripe. So he sighed. Mom obviously meant deeply.

As for the intention, it is almost 11:30 in the evening to ask the son to find a big girl, what other intentions can there be?
Xiao Jie is now beginning to suspect that his mother's objection to a girl like Guan Sha being his girlfriend is just a posturing, the purpose is probably to arouse his rebellious heart...

Just as Xiao Jie thought of this, the door was suddenly opened by Aunt Xiao, "Why are you still sticking here? Let's go!"

Xiao Jie was stunned for a moment, and suddenly realized that there was a cat's eye on the door, so he turned around knowingly and wanted to leave, but then Aunt Xiao specially reminded, "It's so late, don't knock on other girls' doors, it won't affect you well. , and she still likes you, doesn't she? Don't let people think too much, just let it go at the door, move lightly, and leave as soon as you let it go, you hear me?! Later, I sent a message to tell her that I let it go."

"Oh, okay."

"Crack!" The door was closed again by Aunt Xiao.

Although Xiao Jie was a little dazed at first, he was relieved immediately. It seems that his mother really didn't mean that, and if he just put the fruit at the door, it wouldn't be inconvenient.

When Xiao Jie went to Building 3, he saw four or five maintenance workers in gray overalls working near the elevator. Xiao Jie was told that the elevator was under repair and it was halfway done. They said it would be fixed within 15 minutes, so Xiao Jie Jay wait a moment or take the stairs.

As soon as Xiao Jie thought that he had to climb the 42nd floor, he turned around decisively and walked to the courtyard to find a gazebo to sit down.

The dense high-rise buildings in Yanzi Valley seem to block all the starlight. It is hard for Xiao Jie to imagine that a person from Guan Sha’s background is willing to live here for such a long time. Tongzilou.

Xiao Jie recalled the words he said to Guan Sha in the office. Those were just ordinary analyzes in his opinion, but they must have had a big impact on Guan Sha, because it was the business she worked so hard to manage. career, but the industry in which this career is located is bad-mouthed by myself. This is actually right, but it seems a bit cruel.

In Xiao Jie’s opinion, the entry ticket for first-hand housing is easy to get in the future, but second-hand housing is the exit of real estate investment. If second-hand housing is not easy to sell in the future, real estate investment will become a cash-in, easy-to-exit and difficult-to-exit Business, obviously such a business is not a good business.

As an investor, Xiao Jie is always looking at the future. Even if the housing prices in key areas of first-tier cities are still rising in the past two years, it will not change the big trend.

To invest, you must follow the trend.

What the country has always advocated is to live in housing and not to speculate. Except for Xi'an, Suzhou, and Xiamen that Xiao Jie told Guan Sha, these key cities with rising housing prices have also been targeted.

A few days ago, Xiao Jie also saw the news that many banks in Suzhou issued notices to suspend the application for housing loans because there was no quota, and the same was true in Xiamen.

But why is there no quota?
For this reason, Xiao Jie also specially checked the bank's overnight lending rate. The interest rate is actually the price of money. The lower the lending rate is, the less valuable the money is. There is only one reason why money is worthless, and that is too much money.

Therefore, if the bank's overnight lending rate drops sharply, it means that the bank actually has money, but the amount of loans for mortgages is gone.

This is obviously not what the bank is willing to do, because so many people need to buy or speculate in real estate. Banks can make money by lending to these people, at least faster than making money by lending to the manufacturing industry. Therefore, the limit must be the window guidance of the financial authorities. It is the central bank and The result of the joint rectification by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission is to curb the excessive rise of housing prices in some cities.

For Xiao Jie, a good business should be that if the business becomes popular in one place, it can be copied on a large scale through the power of capital, instead of being popular in one place, and the capital has no time to copy it, it will be copied. The policy poured cold water.

Judging from the country's regulation and control over the past ten years, where there is fire, it will be poured with cold water until it is finally extinguished, and the space for human manipulation is getting smaller and smaller.

Therefore, the future property market still has the last engine, which is the continuous inflow of population.

If a house is still a house in everyone's eyes and not a financial product with investment properties, then the increase in housing prices caused by this population influx is moderate and can last for a relatively long period of time, but the current situation is that no one looks at houses. Cheng is just a house, but a financial tool that can chase ups and downs.

When a city begins to have a net inflow of population and absorbs the population overflowing from super-first-tier cities, this city will quickly become a hotspot, become an Internet celebrity city, and become a target for real estate speculators. The rise in house prices will be pulled to the top in a short period of time.

For example, the current average housing price in a certain city is 100 million. Due to the increase in the growth rate of net population inflow in a certain year, it will attract real estate speculators from all over the country. After all, it is really not easy to buy a house that can appreciate in value, so originally Due to the net inflow of population in this city, the average house price can rise to 110 million in the fifth year. As a result, the average price is likely to be fired to 110 million within half a year to a year. So who are the people waiting to take over?

Either there is no transaction in the market, and the house price stays flat for several years;

Either housing prices will continue to fall, in short, they must fall to a reasonable valuation, a valuation that satisfies the balance between supply and demand.

And those houses with a net outflow of population will undoubtedly face a liquidity crisis, that is, when we want to sell the house online, even if the price is reduced by 20% to 30%, we will find that there is no one to view the house. No one bought it, so we just stopped selling it, and the house is still the same house, but the equity on the books of the holders is nothing more than false prosperity.

In fact, not only third- and fourth-tier cities, but also some quasi-second-tier cities and second-tier cities have begun to show signs of this.

Xiao Jie himself studied economics, and he knows very well that once a liquidity crisis occurs, it will never come slowly, but will erupt in an instant without giving people any time to prepare, because when everyone needs liquidity At that time, liquidity will not exist.

Suddenly one day people discovered that the house that was asked about last week will not be sold next week, and it will be very difficult to sell in the future, maybe it will not be sold for a lifetime.

Of course, these are just Xiao Jie's judgments on the real estate market based on his own experience.

The monthly interest, loan, and capital cost of a house are all fixed, and may even rise under floating interest rates, plus decoration fees, property fees, water and electricity fees, maintenance fees, and future extraordinary expenses. The real estate tax that may be introduced, Xiao Jie believes that even if the house price can still grow at a rate of 5% per year in the future, after deducting all the above-mentioned transaction costs and holding costs, the return rate of real estate investment is basically negative. The profit model in which ordinary people who understand investment can make money will no longer exist in the future.

Of course, the common people would definitely not be able to bear the large-scale drop in housing prices. Guan Sha was not willing to believe this at all, not only Guan Sha, but also the people around her, including most of the people around Xiao Jie.

It's just that the real estate-driven GDP model will obviously no longer apply to the national conditions in the future.

Just like the construction of high-speed rail, the economic growth brought about by the initial construction is positive, but as the transportation hub is continuously improved and strengthened, the marginal benefit brought by every dollar invested is diminishing.

Real estate is a super bubble. If it continues to blow up, the people will not accept it when the bubble finally bursts. Therefore, when the general trend is irreversible, the only thing the country can do is to slow down the rate of housing price rise. Let this speed be so slow that people can't feel that their assets are being lost, just like everyone can't feel that our cash is becoming less and less valuable because of annual inflation.

There are many ways to slow down, such as lengthening the selling time of second-hand housing transactions. In the past, when we bought a new house, the government stipulated that we could not sell it within three years. Now it is five years. In the future, it will be seven years, ten years or even longer. People who buy a house live by themselves, rather than speculating in real estate. This policy of extending the selling period is a transaction coolant for the market, just like we immediately suspend trading of a falling stock.

As long as trading is suspended, there will be no trading in the market, and as long as there is no trading, everyone will not feel that the stock price is falling.

Therefore, in Xiao Jie’s opinion, for most cities in China, the best outcome for housing prices in the future is to freeze at a commanding height, and then use years of economic development to absorb this huge valuation bubble.

Yes, this should be the best result that everyone can accept.

Being an excellent investor is very lonely, because their ideas are often opposed by most people at the same time, and they will be ridiculed, abused and looked down upon.

In 2019, there are very few people in the country who have the same idea as Xiao Jie, and most of them believe that China's real estate industry still has ten years of silver age.

Xiao Jie could have not told Guan Sha his thoughts so thoroughly, because although Guan Sha's current business is not big in the long run, it is not impossible to do it in the short term, nor is it impossible to make money, but if you don't tell Guan Sha Clearly, Xiao Jie couldn't convince Guan Sha why he didn't want to invest in her.

Just like Guan Hongwei said, Guan Sha's first half of her life was too smooth, too smooth, it was not a good thing.

Xiao Jie thought that maybe he seemed to be a bad person this time, but he also did a good deed.

(End of this chapter)