Werewolf: Please start your show

[Player No. 12 please speak]

"I'm siding with player No. 5. If he doesn't back out, I'll definitely side with him today and take out player No. 6 first. As for who is the prophet between 5 and 10, we'll talk about it tomorrow."

"But I definitely tend to stand on the side with 5 and 6 and 10 wolves. There are people in front of me who want 5 and 6 wolves. I don't think it's right and I can't agree with it."

"Especially after listening to 11's speech this round, I can no longer recognize 10 as a prophet, because I suspect that 10 and 11 may be two wolves."

Player No. 12 stood up and expressed his attitude and position. He wanted to recognize 5 as a prophet and play 6 and 10 as wolves.

This is okay, because most good people will choose 6 or 10 pairs of wolves. The choice of 12 is completely consistent with the behavior of a good person with his eyes closed, which is normal, but it is not right for him to play 10 or 11 pairs of wolves later.

因为12警上是盘10、11不见面的，他还把11号玩家给认了下来，现在又盘10、11双狼，给人的听感就不太好。

"If you still remember my statement to the police, you must all know that I recognized Player No. 11."

"I said that 10 and 11 will most likely not meet, because 11's reaction and speech after receiving the gold medal clearly did not look like meeting 10, and I don't think 10 could lose gold to his Wolves teammates under the circumstances. "

"Then why do I want to play 10 and 11 again because it may be two wolves? The reason is very simple. It is that player No. 11 did not do a good job in speaking this round."

"First of all, player No. 11 behaves like a 5 or 6 pair of wolves on the rhythm board."

"Secondly, he accused me of being a wolf, but I, the police officer, recognized him through logic. If I was a wolf, why did I recognize him? Why didn't I hint that good guys 10 and 11 might be two wolves?"

"My behavior and speech must have been good in the eyes of player No. 11. But this round, he followed the trend and I was a wolf, so I can't recognize him."

"Others are calling me a wolf, especially player No. 7. I have been mentally prepared for this. But if No. 11 can play me as a wolf, he is very suspicious."

Player No. 12's meaning is obvious. Others can call him a wolf, but only Player No. 11 cannot, because his police officer's speech and behavior must not be able to get the wolf card in the eyes of No. 11.

But 11 followed the trend and said he was a wolf, which doesn't seem like a good person's mentality.

It is precisely because of this that 12 no longer thinks 11 is a good person, but instead points him into the wolf pit, pitting 10 and 11 as wolves.

in fact.

12 This kind of trading is a bit unreasonable. It is a typical mentality that if you pay, you will be rewarded.

His subtext is, I, the police officer, have already recognized you as a good person, how can you accuse me of being a wolf?If you hit me like a wolf, you are no longer a good person, and I will hit you too.

however.

From the perspective of player No. 11, it is completely possible to identify him as a good person and to win his favor, because some wolves will play like this.

Therefore, 11 can play 12 as a wolf, which is no problem, but 12 has such a big reaction because he is a wolf in 11, which makes him more like a wolf.

"The No. 8 player in the front position is most likely a charging wolf who plays with rhythm and incitement. I don't agree with the logic of his game."

"Especially when he said that if the Wolves were playing a good game, the probability of having 5 or 6 Wolves would be far greater than 6 or 10, I laughed."

"Have you never thought about the two plans that the Wolves discussed at night? One is how to play if someone among them takes over the killing, and how to play if no one takes over."

"This is how I talked with my Wolf teammates before when I took the Wolves. Player No. 8 said that the Wolves didn't expect that he would be killed. That's because your thinking is too simple."

"Player No. 9 does not agree with the views and logic of player No. 8, and points out that 8 may be a wolf, so 8 and 9 obviously do not meet. 8 is a wolf, and 9 should be a good person."

“6、8、10、11这就是我现在认为的狼坑，警上我怀疑7可能是狼，大概率是怀疑错了。”

"I hope that player No. 7 will not be so hostile to me in the next round. After all, everyone hits the wrong person sometimes. I just thought too much at the time. It was my problem."

Player No. 12 has found the four wolf pits in his mind, with three on the top and one on the bottom.

From the perspective of the layout, it is quite reasonable and there is no problem. From the perspective of the speech, he is on the side of player No. 5, and there is nothing wrong with the 6, 8, 10, and 11 games.

The question is, are the 12 stations on opposite sides?
Can 10 and 11 become two wolves?If 11 is a wolf, since his superior officer is already trying to hit Barb, why would his subordinates rush to him?

如果场上的局势对10号玩家有利就罢了，但场上大多数好人还是倾向于站边5盘6、10双狼的，11在这种时候打冲锋合理吗？
"Okay, sir, that's all I can talk about. I'll take out player No. 6 today. Do you want the witch to poison 10 tonight? It depends on your mood. I'll pass."

[Player No. 1 please speak]

"It seems that I think too simple."

"After listening to your speech, I suddenly realized that the situation on the court may not be as clear as it seems, so that now I have to rethink my logic."

Player No. 1 feels that he is too naive. He thinks that player No. 5 is the steel prophet if he does not give up. 6 and 10 are the two wolves, and victory in this game is already in sight.

However, after listening to the speech for half a circle, he felt that he was thinking too much.

5. 10 It is not easy to say who the prophet is.

If 5 and 6 are two wolves, and the good guys don't play in this direction, then the game will go far.

"Originally, player No. 5 did not withdraw his money. I thought he must be a prophet. The wolves of No. 6 and No. 10 could not escape."

"But you all say that 6 or 10 double wolves is not logical and common sense. It is impossible for the Wolves to play like this. I am a little confused."

"Especially after listening to the speech of player No. 8, I actually think what he said is very reasonable. If the number 5 and 6 are not guaranteed, it is really a double wolf."

"Normally speaking, 5 throws a kill to 6, and 6 throws gold water to 5 with a backhand. We can all get 5 and 6, maybe it's the two wolves who are using the board. After all, this kind of routine is quite common."

"In order to confuse the good guys, player No. 5 may try some new tricks. If he doesn't retreat, the good guys won't be able to play 5 or 6 pairs of wolves at once, because this is different from the routines we have seen before. .”

"Perhaps 5 is taking advantage of this to forcibly increase its own prophetic position, thus deceiving us into pushing the prophetic resistance out of the game."

"But one thing is to say, the risk of playing this way is too high. Let's not say whether it can be successful. Even if it is successful, the Wolves will have to lose one person first. I don't think it is cost-effective."

"And if you beat like this, as long as the witch doesn't take the initiative and doesn't rush to poison people, the prophet will be able to retaliate for another day when you wake up the next day."

"If the killing is verified, the Wolves will have to sell one more teammate on the table. How can this be done? Good people will definitely be happy to play with open cards, but for the Wolves, that is a very stupid approach."

“所以，我还是觉得5、6不是双狼，我想站边5盘6、10双狼。”

1号玩家从头到尾盘了一大圈，最后还是觉得5、6不像是双狼打板子，他想站边5号玩家盘6、10双狼。

No one is surprised by this. It is possible for 5 and 6 to be twin wolves, but compared to 6 and 10 twin wolves, the vast majority of good people are more willing to believe in the latter.

First of all, the risk of playing with 5 or 6 Wolves like this is indeed too great, and it is not in line with the Wolves' profits.

Unless the hard disk and others are playing tricks, but this is too unreasonable.

I don’t believe in positive logic, but instead speculate on negative logic and small-probability events, which is inappropriate.

Secondly, what player No. 12 said is not unreasonable. It cannot be ruled out that this is a trick played by the 6 and 10 wolves. They may discuss two plans at night.

One is what to do if someone takes over the investigation.

The other thing is, what if no one picks up the investigation?

In this way, the logic of player No. 8 is a bit untenable. He said that the Wolves could not have expected that the prophet would detect it at night, so 6 and 10 were unlikely to become two wolves.

But according to player No. 12, the Wolves can discuss a plan in advance for someone to take over the killing. In this case, it cannot be said that No. 6 and No. 10 can't be two wolves.

It's possible in theory, but are the Wolves that good?

Unless there is a master among them, or someone has thought through all the scenarios in their mind before taking the wolf.

Otherwise, they would not be able to do this in such a short night operation time.

"If you stand next to player No. 5, 6, 8, and 10 should be the three wolves. As for player No. 11, he may not be a wolf. I think it is very unlikely that he and No. 10 will become wolf teammates."

"Listen again, don't jump to conclusions too early. After all, some people haven't heard their speeches yet. Today I will order the three wolves of 6, 8, and 10 first, and I will order the last wolf tomorrow, so that there are no Too bad at making mistakes.”

“但如果我站错边了，10是预言家，那狼坑就是5、6、9，前置位的8、9我认为一定是要开一狼的。”

"5 is a prophet, 8 should be a wolf, 10 is a prophet, and 9 should be a wolf."

"Both Player No. 7 and Player No. 12 don't sound like wolves. Although they are a bit fighting each other, I still think No. 7 and No. 12 are good people."

"Okay, I'll talk so much when the police are called. The trump card is a good guy. Player No. 5 on the sideline. Today's 6. That's it, it's over."

[Player No. 2 please speak]

"Very good. I just like this kind of game. It's thrilling and exciting, and it can reveal a lot of logic. If it's just a regular game, I'd still feel bored."

"The three-person dance of 5, 6 and 10 is not the two-wolf Arhat dance we are familiar with, but a more complicated and rare routine."

"From a behavioral point of view, Player No. 5 and Player No. 6 are indeed related."

"One throws gold water to the other side, and the other throws killing blows to the other side. It makes people think a lot, and they can't help but wonder if the two of them are playing tricks."

"Actually, we don't have to think so much. We'll see if 5 takes off the prophet's clothes later." "If not, then let's see who comes out. If 5 returns to player No. 6, 5 and 6 will do it." They are not two wolves, but as long as they are wolf teammates, there is no need to play like this."

"Because fighting like this is a typical thankless effort. Not to mention the high risk, there is no gain. At most, it will make the good guy stand on the wrong side, playing 6 or 10 pairs of wolves. But he can deceive the good guy for a day, can he continue to deceive him? ?”

"5 As a prophet, this board is not guarded, and he has never taken a knife. How can a good person not doubt his identity?"

"In this case, 5 only has his own knife to dispel the suspicion of the good guy, but he has to give the good guy another round with his own knife. Why do you say another? Because the player with No. 6 has already given the good guy one round. These two rounds If you send it down, how can the Wolves win?"

"The Wolves play routines not to be fancy, but to win, but it is obvious that it is difficult and almost impossible to win with 5 or 6 pairs of wolves playing this way, so they cannot be a pair of wolves."

Player No. 2 sounds like a person who likes to play logic. He is not afraid of the complicated situation on the field, but is afraid that the field will be lifeless, which will make him lose his energy to fight.

It is precisely because of this that 2's speech was very passionate and high-spirited, especially when he encountered such an interesting game, he was very excited.

"I'm talking to the good people on the field. Before we play with 5 or 6 wolves, what is the purpose of playing like this with 5 or 6 wolves?"

"Are you going to be a high-level prophet? Let him get the police badge, and then push the real prophet out of the game?"

"But if you want to achieve this goal, you don't need to take such risks."

“警上5给6丢查杀，6反手给5丢金水之后，5就可以退水了。”

"After player No. 5 retreats, I dare say that 90.00% of the people who get the police badge are 6. Although you can play the 5 or 6 double wolf format, good people are unlikely to play this way on the first day."

"When it comes to the police, as long as 5 and 6 don't explode in their speeches, there is a high probability that the prophet can be knocked out. Even if 8 is in the last position and performs a powerful jump, the prophet can definitely be pushed out of the game."

"For example, player No. 5 jumps an idiot in the last position. Not only can he smoothly resist the push of the prophet, but he can also force the idiot out. By then, even if the good guys know that 5 and 6 are two wolves, it will be too late."

"I think it's best for 5 or 6 pairs of wolves to play like this, to get the maximum benefit at the minimum cost. The way they are doing now is to take the maximum risk and get the minimum benefit."

"This is contrary to common sense and illogical."

"So as long as 5 is in the last position to vote for player 6, I don't want to play the 5 and 6 double wolves."

"Of course, I don't rule out the fact that 5 has a strange brain circuit. He doesn't want to be safe, but wants to gamble with good people. He has to take the wrong approach and play with heartbeats. Then I can only say that he is very good at playing. He won on the first day. .”

"But what if I deceived the good guys on the first day of this game? The ones who are eliminated are the wolves, and I believe that if 5 and 6 are really two wolves, they will not be able to escape the eyes of so many good people present, and they will be found out before long. , then the Wolves will collapse directly."

Player No. 2 went back and forth and talked so much, just to tell the good guy something.

5 and 6 cannot be two wolves, at least from the perspective of the Wolves' income, they cannot be two wolves.

To put it bluntly, even if 5 and 6 are two wolves, this game cannot deceive the good people, let alone achieve the established purpose. It is very stupid for them to play this way.

"Let's put it this way, on the first day I won't bet on 5 or 6 pairs of wolves. I will only bet on 6 or 10 pairs of wolves. When I wake up tomorrow, I will check the number of 5 and 10 pairs of wolves based on the situation of the cards. God will speak for further judgment.”

"If I find that something is wrong with player No. 5, I will play 5 or 6 pairs of wolves. Similarly, if I hear that something is wrong with player No. 10, I will also play 6 or 10 pairs of wolves."

"In short, I think if we can push out player No. 6 on the first day, the balance of victory will already begin to tilt towards our side."

"5 is a prophet, 6 and 10 are two wolves. The speeches of player No. 8 and player 9 are obviously opposite. There must be a wolf among them, and I think player No. 5 is the one who has two wolves of 6 and 8. It’s a wolf.”

"7, 11, and 12 all have preferences for their speeches. They are not very popular. Player No. 1's ideas are similar to mine to some extent. I don't want to point any of the four of them into the wolf pit."

"So, in this game, there is a high probability that the police will open two wolves, the police will open two wolves, and the last wolf will be between 3 and 4."

"Let's listen to what 3 and 4 talk about later. I'm going to find a wolf among them. If I can't find one, then I'll go back and play 7, 11, and 12."

After listening to Player No. 2's speech, Gu Feng understood.

In fact, 2's idea is similar to 1's. They tend to side with player No. 5 and play 6 and 10 as two wolves. However, he dare not say that 6 and 10 must be two wolves, so he is still hesitating in his heart.

There are two possibilities for this hesitation, corresponding to good people and werewolves respectively.

The first is the mentality of a good person, not daring to speak too harshly. After all, 10 also has a prophetic side, and the two wolves in 6 and 10 are somewhat unreasonable.

The second is the werewolf mentality, leaving a way out for himself. If the good guy is really on the right side, he can turn around without exposing his identity.

Player No. 2 should be the former. He seems to be very confident, but in fact he is very entangled and does not dare to say anything.

If he hadn't been entangled, he wouldn't have said that he would stand on the sidelines on the first day with 5, 6, and 10 pairs of wolves, and then look at the situation when he got up tomorrow. Instead, he would have said that 5 must be a prophet, and 6 and 10 must both be wolves.

[Player No. 3 please speak]

"I feel like you guys in the front position have already finished talking about everything you can talk about. In fact, it can be summed up in one sentence. Whether it is a 5 or 6 pair of wolves, or a 6 or 10 pair of wolves, 6 must be a wolf. Today we put 6 It will definitely not go wrong.”

"How to deal with 5 and 10? I agree with the idea of ​​player No. 11. After 10 reports for inspection tomorrow, he will be released first, and then we will see if 5 takes the knife. If 5 does not take the knife, then 5 will be released. .”

"Among the three people 5, 6, and 10, if there are no good people causing trouble, there will be two wolves. We will eliminate them all. It is equivalent to one prophet for two wolves. It is not a loss."

"Furthermore, witches and demon hunters can chase turns. After 5, 6, and 10 are all eliminated, they can directly use their identities to fight. I think the good guys have a high chance of winning this way."

Player No. 3’s idea is very simple. Aren’t 5, 6, and 10 all jumping to the prophet?Without taking into account the trouble caused by the good guys, two wolves were drawn among them.

As long as the good guys get rid of 5, 6, and 10, they can ensure that the two wolves are gone.

The remaining two wolves didn't give them any living space and just beat them up.

The witch jumped out to repay the silver water, and the idiot and the witcher jumped out to clear the pit.

At night the witch poisons and the witcher prods.

When you wake up the next day, the good guys still have one or two rounds to resist pushing the werewolf.

With so many opportunities, as long as there are no deepwater wolves, the good guys will almost certainly win.

After a pause, player No. 3 said again: "If I have to choose a side between 5 and 10, I would definitely prefer 5. I don't want the game to be so complicated. The 5 and 6 wolves play the board and so on. Sometimes Good people just think too much and give the werewolves a chance.”

"It doesn't matter who is the prophet and who is the jumper in 5 and 10. It doesn't matter. If you can't tell the difference, don't tell. In this situation, I just hope that on the third day, 5, 6, and 10 will all be eliminated."

"When the time comes, it's time to show your identity. I don't believe that the remaining two wolves can escape the witch's poison, escape the hunter's hunt, and escape the resistance of the good people."

"If they can really do this, then we will not lose unfairly, but I believe that under that kind of high pressure, the wolf cannot hide."

"I don't think 10 and 11 will meet each other. Regardless of whether 10 is a prophet or not, 11 is most likely a good person. In the roulette wheel of 12, 10 and 11 are two wolves. I think he may be a barb."

"The wolf under the police is most likely player 8. If 12 is not a wolf and the police plays two wolves, then there will be another wolf among 1 and 4. I agree with 9's statement."

"And 8 and 9 will definitely not meet each other. Since I have played 8, I naturally cannot play 9. So if I find two wolves under the police, I can only play 1, 4, and 8."

"As for Player No. 7 and Player No. 2, although I dare not say that they are necessarily good people, their speeches are all benign, and it is not possible for them to fall into the wolf pit for the time being."

In the eyes of player No. 3, if the policeman opened three wolves, it would be 6, 10, and 12. He originally didn't want to click 12 to enter the wolf pit, but this round of 12 games with 10 and 11 double wolves made him suspicious.

If 12 is not a wolf, then there are two wolves under the police. Player No. 8 has one, and the other one is between 1 and 4. Player No. 9 can no longer play.

This wolf pit was drawn by 3 after careful consideration, and he felt that it should not be wrong, unless he was on the wrong side, then that would be another matter.

"This game is actually a test for the demon hunters. Should they activate their skills at night? If so, who is the safer hunter?"

"If I were a demon hunter, I wouldn't activate my skills. Anyway, 5 and 10 wouldn't take the knife. Whoever takes the knife will be buried with the other one. Just leave the outside position and let the wolf chop it."

"I bet that the wolf's knife won't fall on me. If I do, I'll consider myself unlucky."

"I think it is most appropriate to activate the skills on the third night. During the day on the second day, you can tell the good guys who you will hunt at night. This can also be regarded as helping the good guys to clear a trap."

"Of course, everyone has different ideas. What I have said is to advise the demon hunters not to act rashly, to be patient, to be patient, and not to be in a hurry."

"The witch can prescribe poison. Even if the poison is wrong, it will be fine. As long as the witch does not die, the good guys will not be left behind."

"Okay, that's all I'll talk about this round. It doesn't matter whether we're on the right side or the wrong side. What's important is how we keep from falling behind in the round."

"Let's put it this way, as long as we don't fall behind in the round, we won't lose this round."

Player No. 3 is telling the truth. If you don't fall behind in the round, the good guys won't lose.

But the question is how can the good guys stay in the round and not fall behind?

According to what he said, all 5, 6, and 10 will be eliminated. What if a demon hunter, idiot, or witch takes a knife at night?

Or even a witch accidentally poisoning an idiot?
There are too many uncertain factors, and good people cannot guarantee that they will not fall behind in the round.

Anyway, Gu Feng doesn’t agree with Player 3’s one-size-fits-all approach.

We still need to distinguish between prophets and we must not avoid problems and even stop taking sides. This is wrong.

(End of this chapter)