Great Military Division

Chapter 195 Xu Rong Conspiracy?Military division alliance data-based reasoning, easy to detect!
"Master Bian, judging from the training levels of Zhang Liao and Sun Jian today, the cooperation between the two has improved significantly. Although it has not reached 80%, it has reached 72.2%. There must be no problem for the two of them to work together to contain Lu Bu. .”

"As for Lu Bu's new tricks shown in the battle, there is also a way to crack them. With the skills of Zhang Liao and Sun Jian, it won't be too difficult to master them in a short period of time and practice them proficiently."

"."

"In this way, the fighting general will not be at a disadvantage, and the army will have a strong general who can restrain Lu Bu in fierce battles. The powerful combat power of the Bingzhou Wolf Rider is mainly based on Lu Bu. As long as Lu Bu can be restrained, it will be much easier to defeat the Wolf Rider. gone."

Experts from the Military Division Alliance studied a large amount of historical data, combined with the combat methods of the Xiabian County Rangers in the late Han Dynasty, and conducted a large number of arguments and conjectures on the combat capabilities and methods of Lvbu Bingzhou wolf cavalry.

Due to Lu Bu's outstanding personal ability, his combative character, and the evidence of a large number of historical materials, experts finally selected three of the combat methods after screening dozens of plans and guesses.

No matter which combat habit the real Lu Bu has, the experts have all researched out the corresponding established cracking strategy based on its characteristics, and passed it on to Liu Bian.

Liu Bian suddenly became enlightened, let out a long breath, and became more confident: "Thanks for the expert's guidance, I will arrange the relevant matters as soon as possible."

Although the combat methods of each army have their own characteristics, they are cavalry after all, and they still have certain commonalities. The preparations made for the local cavalry battalion before, certain things can be put on the wolf cavalry.

This work seems very complicated, but in fact, Liu Bian has already completed most of the work, and now it is only necessary to prescribe the right medicine according to the characteristics of Lu Bu Bingzhou wolf rider.

"Ok!"

The Alliance of Military Advisors simply responded: "Now we are waiting for news from Xun Yu. No matter what the state of Xu Rong and Lu Bu is, the experts have a corresponding battle plan. At best, it is just fine-tuning."

Liu Bian really admired the experts of the Military Division Alliance.

They will analyze the enemy, conduct a large number of repeated demonstrations, and then formulate coping strategies in different situations based on the results of the analysis and demonstrations, so as to ensure that they always grasp the overall situation.

When Xun Yu was mentioned, Liu Bian suddenly became nervous. He frowned and glanced at the candlelight in the tent, thinking: "Teacher, Xun Yu has been away for so long. Logically speaking, he should have returned long ago, but there is no news yet. , will something happen?"

"possible."

The Military Division Alliance did not hide it, but immediately explained: "But the probability of Xun Yu being killed, based on the current situation, is less than 8.39%."

"But if Xu Rong and Lu Bu are really killed by Xun Yu, Master Bian will directly send an army to crush them. With the current strength of Daguguan, the probability of being able to survive five days is less than 24.3%."

Uh.
Liu Bian was a little confused when he heard this: "Teacher, how do you get these data? This is a practical problem, not a mathematical problem such as probability."

The Military Division Alliance paused for a moment, and finally said: "Actually, I didn't quite understand it. Experts just said that this event analysis method combines logic, probability, statistics and many other disciplines. It is a semi-quantitative analysis method. "

"However, judging from the current results of use, whether it's the selection and formulation of the escape plan, or the success rate of deducing Master Bian's success in not being able to see through the fake Li Ru's identity, it all proves that it is reliable."

It is worth mentioning that although the experts gave Liu Bian relatively few suggestions, in fact, their workload behind the scenes is particularly heavy. After all, every detail must be mastered and deduced before the final plan can be formed.

For example, when Luoyang escaped, there were actually seven or eight active escape plans. It was only after Shi Zixuan, Shi A and others provided information that the success rate of the underdrain escape plan reached more than 80%, and this was finally selected. plan.

In order to improve the success rate of a plan, ambiguity must be eliminated as much as possible, so that the possibility of making it develop in a certain direction is greatly enhanced, so that the plan can be better determined.

Sincerely at this moment.

Experts have to wait for the information provided by Xun Yu before they can rule out some possibilities, which greatly improves the accuracy of the plan. Only when the certainty reaches more than 80% can they dare to put it into practice.

In this way, even if there is an accident, it should not reverse the development of the whole incident. Just like Li Ru's move to directly block Luo Yang during the escape plan, even though it was unexpected, it was still successful in the end!
This is science!
Although Liu didn't understand logic, statistics, probability, psychology, etc., the expert's event reasoning model must have been scientifically verified.

"Uh"

Liu Bian was dumbfounded, and shrugged awkwardly: "When the book is ready to use, you will hate it. I advise all netizens who are watching the live broadcast to study hard and don't waste your time."

Liu Bian's advice from the bottom of his heart once again detonated the netizens in the live broadcast room:

"That's right! I feel like my college was wasted."

"To be honest, I feel that I have learned more from watching the live broadcast during this time than when I was in school."

"It's not a big deal. Experts are currently making plans for iron and steel smelting. I dived in the group and learned a lot."

"There are still improvements to weapons in our group, and I have learned a lot."

"Knowledge +1"

"+2"

"+10086"

"."

Just as many netizens were talking about it.

"Report—!"

suddenly.

There was a long sound from outside the tent.

Liu Bian looked up.

But seeing, a guard transferred into the account, bowed his body and cupped his hands and said: "Your Highness, the military division is back."

Liu Bian was delighted and hurriedly waved his hands: "Quick, let him in."

The guard nodded, "No."

Immediately.

Bow down and leave the tent.

Not long after, Xun Yu lifted the curtain and entered, stepped forward, and bowed: "Your Highness."

Liu Bian hastily waved his hand to interrupt, motioning for him to sit aside: "If Wen doesn't need to be polite, Gu will feel at ease when you come back."

Xun Yu was moved: "Your Majesty is concerned."

Liu Bian ordered the left and right to make tea, exchanged a few simple greetings, and then went straight to the point.

After listening to Xun Yu's detailed process report, Liu Bian was even more impressed by Xun Yu's eloquence, even in danger, he was always able to defend his dignity, and even used words to provoke the relationship between the two parties.

"Wen Ruo, you have worked hard."

Liu Bian felt sorry for the other party from the bottom of his heart.

Although Xun Yu returned safely in the end, the process was like walking through the gate of hell.

If it wasn't for Xun Yu's superior skills, I'm afraid that what was sent back would look like a corpse.

"This is Yu's duty, so why bother?"

"but."

Xun Yu pinched a strand of beard under his chin, and said with great interest: "In the end, it was Xu Rong who sent us out of Dagu Pass instead of Lu Bu sending someone out. It's really unexpected."

"This proves"

Xun Yu frowned slightly, secretly speculating: "Xu Rong and Lu Bu have not reached an agreement, the two are still conflicted, and even greater conflicts may erupt because of this matter."

"On the surface, this matter is indeed good news for us, but I always feel that something is not quite right. If Xu Rong fails to reach an agreement with Lu Bu and let me wait, wouldn't it be letting the tiger go back to the mountain?"

"According to common sense."

Xun Yu breathed out a turbid breath, and said softly, "Even if you want to let me wait, it should be early tomorrow morning when His Highness leads the troops to Dagu Pass, using the general situation to force Lu Bu to submit."

"In this way, at least Lu Bu will not spread his anger on Xu Rong, but will only deepen his hatred towards Your Highness, and this will be more conducive to the stability of Daguguan."

Liu Bian nodded approvingly: "It makes sense. Could it be that Xu Rong's move has another meaning behind it?"

Xun Yu still frowned: "Your Highness, on the way back, Yu carefully recalled the whole process of today's Dagu Pass. Xu Rong and Lu Bu are indeed in conflict, but they have not yet reached the point of irreconcilability."

"I think below."

Xun Yu saluted solemnly: "There is indeed a deep meaning behind Xu Rong's move."

Liu Bian tentatively asked: "Oh? What's the meaning?"

"Just count."

Xun Yu said very solemnly: "Xu Rong expected that if I return to Guangcheng Pass, His Highness will know about the discord between the two sides. In this way, the conflict between the two sides will intensify, and it is reasonable for Lu Bu to do something out of the ordinary." among."

"And if Lv Bu comes to fight alone, His Highness will naturally give him a profound lesson. When Lv Bu is defeated, His Highness pursues the victory. At this time, Xu Rong lays an ambush halfway, and His Highness will definitely be defeated in one fell swoop."

"That's it."

As for this, Xun Yuyan's thoughts were completely opened up: "Our army has lost soldiers and generals, and our vitality has been greatly injured. We are unable to storm Dagu Pass, so Xu Rong has enough confidence to support Dong Zhuo when he arrives."

"After all, Xu Rong knows very well that Dong Zhuo is struggling to cope with the full-scale campaign against Dong. Now is the time when the Allied forces are most likely to win. His Highness will never give up this opportunity."

"Instead of passive defense, it is better to take the initiative to attack. If you win by chance, there is still the possibility of delaying time, or even turning defeat into victory, but if you insist on holding on, they will not survive five days!"

Liu Bian was deeply impressed, and Wang Zuozhi's talent really lived up to his reputation.

It is actually possible to speculate such an incredible plan through such details.

Liu Bian took advantage of the situation and asked: "If this is the case, where does Wen Ruo think Xu Rong will set up an ambush?"

Xun Yu paused and shook his head: "It's hard to say. After all, along the road from Dagu Pass to Guangcheng Pass, there are ambushes everywhere. It is really impossible for Xun to determine the location of Xu Rong's ambush based on this."

"Ah."

Liu Bian did not make things difficult for Xun Yu, and said with a long breath, "Wen Ruo has worked hard, let's leave it at that for now, let's discuss it tomorrow morning, you should go back and rest first."

Xun Yu got up and saluted: "I will take my leave."

Immediately.

Bow down and leave the tent.

Liu Bian frowned, and asked tentatively: "Teacher, do experts have any thoughts on this? I'm confused now, and I always feel that Xun Yu's words are reasonable, but they are a bit unbelievable."

"Defense Lord."

Afterwards, the voice of the Military Division Alliance sounded: "According to Xun Yu's information, the experts conducted another deduction based on the original strategy. The probability of Xu Rong's move is 82.4% that there is a conspiracy behind it, and the probability of being forced to do so is only 13.6%."

"There are twelve reasons for the conspiracy. I will briefly mention two. One is the analysis of Xu Rong's character. He is cautious by nature, considers issues comprehensively, and has a big picture."

"Xu Rong is so disregarding the situation at Dagu Pass and Lu Bu's feelings, he let Xun Yu back privately, which is contrary to his character, and the conspiracy index is as high as 91.3%;"

"Moreover, judging from the rationality, Lu Bu and Xu Rong are at odds, and they are in Lu Bu's hands. They are just on duty, so how can they be easily let go by Xu Rong? There are too many uncertain factors, but the process is extremely smooth, and the conspiracy index is as high as 88.5%;”

hiss~~~
Liu Bian sat up straight suddenly: "So, Xun Yu's guess is correct?"

The military division alliance replied: "It is very likely to be correct, and according to the final analysis of experts, the probability that Xu Rong used the contradiction between the two to lure the enemy deep and set up an ambush halfway is as high as 76.3%!"

"This one ranks the highest among the conspiracy possibilities deduced by the experts, and it is 2% higher than No.26.5 'paralyzing the debater, showing that he can't', which can be said to be far behind the other possibilities! "

"Although."

The military division alliance added: "According to the standards of experts, the 80% requirement has not been met, but a preliminary plan can be formed, and corresponding countermeasures can be prepared according to the train of thought."

"But teacher!"

Liu Bian took a deep breath and said softly, "Can experts analyze which road Xu Rong will set up an ambush on?"

The military division alliance immediately said: "According to the current situation of Xu Rong's troops, the infantry has lost a lot, and the Shesheng Battalion and the Yueqi Battalion are the main force. The places where they ambush will definitely be dominated by the Shesheng Battalion and the Yueqi Battalion."

"As for the terrain that is conducive to the ambush of these two arms, there are only three at present. The first goat col has an ambush probability of 68.6%. The Shesheng Battalion controls the commanding heights. Cavalry are of little use."

"The second one is Xiewanggou, with an ambush probability of 69.7%, which is beneficial for the Yueqi Battalion to fight back and forth. It is also the main battlefield of the Bingzhou Wolf Cavalry. The two sides cooperate to double the power, but the Shesheng Battalion and the Infantry Battalion are gone. usefulness."

"As for the third one, it is the valley near Niuzui Mountain. The probability of setting up an ambush is 81.6%. It has a commanding height, which can make the Shesheng Battalion and the Infantry Battalion fully play their role. The terrain in the valley is flat and suitable for cavalry charge. Once the mountain pass is blocked, it will be closed. Beat the dog."

Nima!

Liu Bian was so impressed that he couldn't stop nodding in secret praise.

But
He was also a little curious, and tried to ask: "Teacher, why is the probability of the third one so high? It's actually ten percent higher than the second and first?"

The military division alliance explained: "Because the first two have fatal flaws! For example, the first goat col, the Yueqi battalion and the wolf cavalry do not have much room to play, but they are the real main force of the opponent."

"As for the second Xiewanggou, the terrain there is very special. It is obviously prepared for the cavalry. If Xu Rong sets the ambush point here, it will easily arouse suspicion, and the success rate is too low."

"There is only the third Niuzui Mountain!"

The military division alliance is extremely positive: "It is a relatively balanced ambush point that can give full play to the characteristics of various arms in Dagu Pass, and once successful, the probability of completely annihilating the opponent is as high as 92.1%!"

It's so arrogant!

Liu Bian was overwhelmed with admiration.

It is really worthy of being a team of experts, well-founded and clear at a glance.

The military division alliance continued: "Master Bian, experts are currently reviewing the plan to break the situation. You must call everyone to come at any time and prepare relevant matters in advance."

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(End of this chapter)