Consumer God

Chapter 237

Eloquent on stage.

The audience was stunned.

Among the attendees were bank employees, business owners, macro economists, and housewives who knew nothing about finance...

Logically speaking, it is difficult to have a thought that can unify them.

If it goes too deep, the elite can understand it, but Xiaobai can't understand it.

If it's too shallow, Xiaobai can understand it, but the elites dismiss it.

However, the big customer sharing meeting of the bank only values ​​wealth and never considers the quality of the customers themselves, resulting in a huge gap in the level of the guests. The low ones may only have graduated from elementary school, and the high ones may have a doctorate from a prestigious school.

So most of the time, the training has always cultivated a loneliness.

Hearing the experts babbling on stage, eating and drinking was over, and finally returned home with gifts in a daze.

Year after year, house after house, the process is always the same.

However, today is really evil.

Mr. Han taught classes, not teaching students in accordance with their aptitude, but highlighting one simple and rude one.

Very little technical terminology, always pretending to be aggressive.

However, the effect is really good...

Han Lie lazily glanced back at the PPT, trying to omit the first point, but the students refused to do it.

"I won't talk much about the big economic cycle, you can go through the macro data yourself.

If we only mention the last two years, the World Bank's Southeast Asian Economic Development Report, UBS's and Deutsche's phased outlook reports are all more interesting.

You can look at the things produced by the three rating agencies of Rice, but try to trust as little as possible...

Have to ask?
Okay, let me give you an example——

There are 5 large gangs in the city, and they are fighting for territory every day.

The boss has the most thugs, and he lends usury while collecting protection fees.

The second child is to work hard to build a gang. He started his business from pulling carts, picking dung, blacksmithing, and selling boxed lunches that others didn't like to do, and gradually controlled all the middle and lower-level businesses in the city.

The third child is from a family of soldiers, and his descendants are useless. Now only the poor are left.

The fourth child and the fifth child follow the boss, and they always play carefully.

The rest are all small miscellaneous fish, and life is very hard. If you don't pay attention to walking, you will have to suffer from the boss.

How did the economic cycle come about?

No matter which line of gang member you are, you have to eat, wear clothes and buy all kinds of small things, so everyone's money rushes into the pocket of the second child, and every year you settle accounts, spending more than you earn.

Once someone can't hold on anymore, they have to think of crooked tricks.

The crooked tricks of others are not very lethal, except for the elders. Not only do they always get IOUs when they buy things, but they also engage in violent collections when they are in a hurry.

If you want to pay back the money, you have to cut down on food and clothing. When the savings reach a certain level and you are still tight, the economic crisis will come.

With the development of the crisis, some wealthy businessmen can only sell their houses and shops at a low price. At this time, if you have cash on hand, you can find great deals everywhere.

When the boss's money is almost paid back, life will continue, and the city will slowly restore prosperity.

The boss continues to lend money, the second child continues to make money from all directions, and the dead fish and shrimp will naturally be replaced by new gangs.

This is the big economic cycle.

It will go on and on until the damn thing is dead, or until someone can't help but flip the table. "

As soon as Han Lie finished speaking, there was a burst of laughter and applause.

There was even a middle-aged angry youth who suddenly booed: "Well said! Let them all die!"

"Hahahaha!"

At the moment in 2013, Han Lie's interpretation of the economic cycle was too fresh.

The details are indeed unclear, but overall it is very easy to establish a framework, especially for laymen to accept.

People who really understand economics may sneer at it, but most people don't understand it now.

It is definitely a skill that can be roughly understood by audiences who have no foundation at all.

Many young women, not thinking about economics at all, still looked at Han Lie with strange eyes and listened with great interest.

"Mr. Han, how do you understand the white note?"

Han Lie suddenly heard a familiar voice, looked around, and saw Tang Xintian sitting in the corner at the far end of the front row at some point, raising his hand to ask a question.

You have a pretty smile, don't you?

Brother Lie murmured in his heart, made a note for her, and then explained openly.

"The trade surplus is too large. The country holds a pile of foreign exchange reserves that cannot be spent, and can only be exchanged for U.S. debt. It is equivalent to selling a lot of goods and being owed money by the other party. Isn't this an IOU?"

Such a sentence made Tang Xintian's eyes change.

Good guy, the dog man is really proficient in economics!

That's ridiculous, why does he know everything?

At first, Tang Xintian thought that Han Lie had copied the joke from somewhere, so he opened his mouth to test it out, but in the end he hit the steel plate.

Although Han Lie's answer was very simple, it took root all of a sudden.

Being so easy at hand and calm and breezy just proves how solid his foundation is.

Tang Xintian wanted to ask a question, but was interrupted by another client.

"Mr. Han, who do you think is likely to overturn the table?"

Han Lie looked up, and the questioner was a middle-aged man sitting in the middle of the second row. He was wearing a very plain blue suit and gray shirt. It didn't look gorgeous, but the fabric of the clothes was very textured.

Han Lie smiled lightly, and replied simply: "The boss is definitely going to attack the second child, the third child should attack the boss' younger brother, and the fourth child is anxious to get rid of his poor relatives, and it will be a mess."

The pupils of the middle-aged man shrank sharply, shocked by Han Lie's boldness.

Right, I can't see it for a while, but this kind of courage to make judgments is really amazing.

Then he seemed to want to ask questions, but the customers behind him quit.

"Mr. Han, can you explain the cycle in the stock market carefully?"

"Yes, yes, let's get to the point!"

Hehe, for most people, the money under their noses is more tempting. What about the future, who cares?
But their positivity is a good thing.

At the very least, it proved that Han Lie had gained their trust, and most of them were willing to listen to him.

It's the perfect start to a lecture.

"it is good."

Han Lie smiled and began to talk about the cycle in the stock market.

"The market cycle is much simpler than the economic cycle, which can be summed up in one sentence——

If it does not fall, it will rise, and if it does not rise, it will fall.

It is very difficult to judge the small-level cycle. Professionals may not be able to see it right, and it is impossible for me to be correct all the time.

Today, I advise everyone to increase leverage and charge upwards, not because I have concluded that 2000 is a big iron bottom.

understand?
Will the index fall below 2000 points?It might break.

Will it fall below 1900?Not likely not.

Look, it's vague, not sure.

The only thing I can be sure of is that below 2000 points is the starting point of a big cycle, and it is a godsend opportunity for so-called value investment.

In the long run, it's too safe.

Therefore, the long-term certainty contained in this short-term uncertainty is the end of a down cycle and the beginning of an up cycle.

Why does this happen?

Because inside and outside the market, there are five types of people in total.

One is an honest person who engages in industry, the other is a smart person who engages in finance, the other is a smart person who engages in speculation, the other is a leek who follows the ups and downs of the market, and the last is a fool who is greedy and foolish. .

Honest people are the first to realize the changes in the industry, such as you businessmen.

I usually operate the industry normally, and once the market price of my small store deviates too far from the normal value, or feels that the industry recovery is imminent, I will enter the market at a low level.

Opening branches, repurchasing equity, expanding business scale...

It's easy to understand, right?

Smart people follow closely behind—industrial capital enters the market, and financial capital will follow immediately.

Speculators are not as quick as the two of them, so they often wait until the stock has risen for a period of time and the certainty is relatively high before chasing the rise.

This is called right-hand trading.

Leeks are going back and forth in the market all the time, and they are the bottom stock.

There are not many fools usually, and they usually wait until the big bull market and the stocks are going crazy, then they hear that so and so has made a fortune, rush in with their brains, and then take the quilt.

They will hold shares and wait and wait until the end.

At the end of the bear market, individual stocks fell for a long time, and finally started a small-level rebound, which revived their hopes again.

The stock price has been sideways for a while, the rebound is not too high, and I am reluctant to sell; the decline is not too deep, and I have no courage to cover my position.

That is a torment!

Suddenly, there was another wave of rapid losses, and they finally couldn't stand it anymore.

I won't play with you, okay?

In a rage, cut!
Once or twice like this, all the idiots are cut off, and there are no more floating chips in the market.

Those who still persist, either have completely ignored the market, or firmly believe that the market has reached the end, so the stock price finally stopped falling.

When the trading volume shrinks to a certain extent, even the rich cannot buy too many stocks, and the daily limit can be pulled up by hundreds of millions.

This is the bottom of the cycle.

Simple right?

Next week, it will be a quick drop to scare fools.

The market will definitely go according to my judgment——

An irrational plunge, collective panic, a large number of floating chips are released, and then a small level of rebound is launched.

It rebounded to about 2200 points, fell again, and then scared the fool.

The second touches the 2000-point integer mark, and then arranges sideways and grinds slowly.

Why sideways?
Because everything that can be harvested has been harvested, there is really no way to go down, and the stock market has no clear reason to rise, and external capital lacks the motivation to enter the market on a large scale.

The whole process will probably continue until the middle of next year, until 4G is popularized, and the profit of the mobile Internet industry soars, leading to a strong recovery of the macro economy.

At this time, industrial capital has completed building positions in multiple industries, and financial capital with a keen sense of smell has begun to accelerate its pace of entry. Speculators have speculated enough on 4G-related concepts and decided to make a move on white horses and blue chips.

All it takes is any spark of oil, and a fire can be ignited in no time.

What is that oil star?
It can be a key favorable policy, or it can be a mid-year forecast from the Bureau of Statistics.

In short, everything is ready, and the bull market is like an arrow on the string, and no one can stop it.

You asked me to talk about the cycle, but there is really nothing to talk about.

Let me give you an operation suggestion--

Don't rush to move next week, wait and see to see if my judgment is right.

If you are right, continue to wait until the stock market falls to 2000 points for the second time, and enter the market with your eyes closed.

Then, here comes the point!
Pay attention to find a few people in your life circle who you think are not very smart and do not usually trade stocks, and observe them carefully.

When they start actively discussing the stock market, and the person who is usually the most cautious all follows in to join in the fun, sell all the positions, goodbye, and stop playing.

What is the use of periodic or non-cyclical?

If you don't understand the cycle, why don't you just follow human nature?

If you can find the smartest person, immediately hug his thighs, follow suit, and copy homework.

If you can find a fool, do it the other way around, and ascend to heaven in the same way.

Of course, if you are that fool, I didn't say anything. "

"Hahahaha!"

There was a sudden burst of laughter in the audience, and several big sisters burst into tears.

Han Lie's method is not new, but his interpretation is too fresh.

Can the stock market cycle be understood from this perspective? !

Awesome!
It is no exaggeration to say that most of the customers in the audience understood.

Even if you have never traded in stocks, at least you have been in contact with business and know what human nature is like.

You don't need to have too much professional knowledge, you can easily understand the fundamental operating mechanism of the cycle.

"Mr. Han, Mr. Han!"

When Han Lie suspended the lecture and unscrewed the mineral water bottle to drink, a group of people below raised their hands, scrambling to ask questions.

Private banking clients are all smart people. Smart people are not easy to trust others, but they are also relatively decisive.

Now that he realizes that Han Lie is a master with real skills, he immediately arouses great enthusiasm.

Han Lie ignored them.

Drinking the water slowly, his eyes glanced down calmly.

After dragging for about 20 seconds, I pointed at the most beautiful and largest sister in sight.

"That female classmate in the white suit, what's your question?"

Big sister...beautiful wife...little young woman...cough cough, forget it, she's just a female student, don't mess around with names.

The female classmate was surprised and excited. When she took the microphone from the Pufa staff, she even straightened her clothes before speaking with a pretty blushing face.

"Mr. Han, when will your next private placement be released? Do you have any requirements for the applicants?"

Ouch, good question!

If I didn't know you well, I thought you were a babysitter invited by my buddies...

Brother Lie is in a great mood, because he finally found a just right opportunity to pretend to beep.

"First of all, thank you for your trust."

The dog man thrust his right hand into his trouser pocket, smiling reservedly and extravagantly.

"Unfortunately, I have no plans to raise funds externally.

Today is just a class. I will speak with my heart to repay the respect of Pudong Development. You can listen to it freely. If you gain something, thank the organizer. Don’t worry if you find it boring. Anyway, our fate is likely to end here.

The scale of my next private equity product will be limited to around 25 billion, and more than 20 billion has already been booked.

I may be more sought-after than everyone thinks, I am not short of money, and I am not going to accept more simple money.

Actually, you can wait a little longer.

If my judgment is a mess, you will save money and avoid being deceived.

If my judgment is not bad, then you don't need me, just follow the method I provide, and you can earn excess returns in the next market.

If you find out after half a year—oh, Mr. Han is really amazing!

That's normal, I'm indeed ready to become a god..."

"Pfft! Cough cough!"

Tang Xintian was drinking water, when she heard the last sentence, she almost choked herself to death.

How can this little kid be so pretentious? !
She was surprised, she was shocked, she was angry, but she couldn't say a word of derogation.

The dead boy is indeed arrogant, but until the dust settles in the stock market next week, no one can be sure whether his arrogance is due to arrogance, or whether it comes from sharp and accurate judgments.

At the very least, just looking at Han Lie's demeanor on stage and hearing his unconstrained deconstruction of the economic cycle and stock market cycle is already daunting enough.

In Han Lie, there is a kind of brilliance that can be felt by everyone and belongs to geniuses alone.

Therefore, although the audience was noisy and humming, no one jumped out to question him, criticize him, or oppose him.

How about arrogance?

So what if you are too pretentious?

People are free and easy on the stage, dare to bet their reputation, no matter what kind of expert, professor and elite you are, you have to hold back if you refuse to accept it!

Tang Xintian turned her head and looked around, wanting to see everyone's reaction.

As a result, there are very few people who are obviously dissatisfied.

Even most of the female customers looked at Han Lie with strong appreciation.

Brother lie today is a wolf dog.

Rebellious, young and handsome, full of aura, bursting with hormones.

And the big sister who was named was holding her chin with one hand, looking at Han Lie in a daze.

Tang Xintian's eyes suddenly turned cold.

Hey, you are a nympho, what does licking your lips mean? !

Show some face, old aunt!
*****
Let me tell you a ghost story, my parents are all in the sun, they called me home for dinner yesterday, luckily I didn't go back...

(End of this chapter)