Consumer God

Chapter 404

Classmate Ping'an was more anxious than Han Lie expected, and he didn't hide it at all.

Film Emperor Lie was flipping through the catalog slowly, and he kept explaining there, offering various opinions on his own initiative.

It doesn't look like Party A's father holding Shang Fang's sword at all, but... a big fool?

On the contrary, Han Lie sat firmly on the Diaoyutai, taking his time.

The whole subject and object are reversed.

But this matter cannot be seen from the perspective of God.

In essence, Yu Ping'an and Han Lie each provide each other with their own resources to form a complementary cooperation. In terms of value judgment, they will not only be affected by the times, but also be affected by their respective cognitive levels.

In Yu Ping'an's view, the quantitative strategy that Han Lie can provide is far more valuable than the project information he provides.

Entrepreneurship projects across China have spread to the sea, and hundreds of thousands of companies are born and died every year. How many unicorn-level companies have been born in the past few years?

Engaging in angel investment is not only a test of eyesight, but more importantly, luck.

Normally, if one of the hundreds of companies of the same type emerges, it is regarded as being picked up, and the rate of return is very generous.

Yu Pingan didn't hide this when he was popularizing science.

"Laishen, I've listed the hottest track this year for you, and the number one is e-commerce, so far 86 investments worth more than one million yuan have been born.

The second place is the mobile internet with 70 pens.

Ranked third is financial services. I highly recommend this field, and it will definitely explode in the next few years.

Followed by online education and medical care, but Internet + medical care has to deal with the Chaoshan Gang, and my father has handled relatively few projects there.

On the whole, the projects I listed for you all have merits, at least at least their founders are people who want to do things seriously, not liars, which can save you 95% of trouble.

However, for a fragile egg-level company like a start-up company, 100 investors may not be able to kill one of them. I suggest that you try to start from the B round and the C round.

The 20 companies in the front of the list are basically young companies that have reached the B round. They are expensive, but the security is relatively high. As long as you can ensure that the exit mechanism is perfect, put in a little effort to keep an eye on them, even if you can’t make money. You won't lose too much..."

Lose your mind, old man!

Han Lie felt Yu Ping'an's sincerity, but he couldn't help shaking his head when he saw the line written on the project introduction.

—— Bytedance, the financing target is 1 million yuan, and the total valuation is 5 million yuan.

Tsk tsk, do you call this expensive? !
Compared with its seed round and A round, the current ByteDance has indeed increased in price a lot, but think about the situation when Tik Tok swept the world... expensive chicken feathers!

Forget it, don't mention vulgar things, brother is not interested in money.

In the future, it doesn't matter how high the market value of bytes will be.

What Han Lie really valued was its influence.

BAT can’t get in, Pinxixi is just an e-commerce platform focusing on sinking markets, Didi is dead, and Meituan’s attributes are there.

The only Internet company that can be said to have a strong influence is the sudden emergence of Byte.

Money, Han Lie can earn it from other places.

Everything else he wanted, only bytes could provide.

If it was possible for the B round of [-] million yuan, Han Lie would even be willing to eat it all.

Well, it's like dreaming, don't even think about it.

The goal is better to be more pragmatic - 2500 million, 5% of the shares, if it is achieved, it will be a victory.

Han Lie tried his best to hide his interest in bytes, and asked from the beginning.

Meituan, Jiuxian.com, Pocket Shopping, Mogujie, Ele.me, DHgate.com, Community 001, Pocket Huitong, Qiandaibao, Qufenqi, Modu Bank Information...

The previous 20 projects are all well-known companies that have left their names in history.

The bytes are mixed in, not particularly conspicuous.

"Why is Meituan listed? This kind of project shouldn't be leaked outside, right?"

Han Lie deliberately asked the most valuable Meituan, and opened up the situation with small talk.

Yu Pingan shook his head: "That's just for bragging with you. Their C round is in the final stage, and 3 million yuan can get about 7.8% of the shares. The three institutions are divided, and my father's Yunfeng is not willing. Blending in, of course I will not recommend you to follow the investment."

In Han Lie's understanding, the rate of return for investing in Meituan is quite high, but Yu Ping'an doesn't seem to think so?
Yu Pingan smiled.

"The first thing to consider is whether you can get it, the second is how much you have to pay, the third is to consider its competitors, and the fourth is to consider profit expectations... In short, it is not a particularly worthwhile project. "

Han Lie finally understood—he is a reborn person, and he habitually analyzes problems from the perspective of God, and all he sees are benefits.

And what about normal people?
What I saw was the danger in the fog.

Therefore, every decision they make will be cautious and try their best to balance risks and benefits.

Han Lie was not on the same channel as them at all, so there was a huge difference in what he thought and what he thought.

Well, don't act, just ask the bytes!
"What's the matter with ByteDance? I really like their Duanzi product, doesn't Mr. Yu want to vote?"

"Bytes?"

Yu Pingan thought for a while, and replied uncertainly: "Their B round is DST's money, right? Maozi's venture capital fund.

This company is not currently in the eyes of the mainstream, jokes and news websites, don’t you think their thinking is strange?

Of course, to survive in the cracks of BAT, we can only find another way.

However, the prospects are therefore limited, and there is no way.

And Lie Shen, you may not have noticed that in fact, the hidden policy risk of Duanzi's product is very high, far higher than other Internet products we know.

Rubbing the edge on yellow is human nature, and there is nothing to mention. Various Internet products have similar problems.

Due to the core tonality of its products, Duanzi is extremely serious, and there is no way to control it.

And the bigger problem is-there is too much hostility on the Internet now, and netizens always make jokes aimed at the government and policies. This kind of well-known green frog beauty sons fish in troubled waters, this kind of atmosphere is very bad.

My personal judgment is that this product has huge birth defects and probably won't last long.

If it's not popular, it's enough, and it can still be self-indulgent. If it really becomes popular, there will be no buffer, and the more popular it is, the faster it will die.

Therefore, although Zhang Yiming's two products have produced good daily activity data, the valuation of Byte cannot increase. In fact, there are internal reasons.

Yunfeng will not invest in bytes, and will not participate in the B round and the C round.

However, both Shen Nanpeng and Lei Jun are very interested. Mr. Lei likes to invest in the media to facilitate Xiaomi's marketing. Should have made up his mind.

The remaining top investment institutions are basically not interested in Byte.

For example, IDG, Jingwei, Zhenge, Goose Factory and Beaver Factory Investment Department, etc., currently have no strong urge to invest in bytes, and Mr. Zhang himself is unlikely to accept investment from major companies.

Lie Shen, if you are interested in bytes, I can help you lead the way.

The person in charge of Yunfeng's investment department is very familiar with Mr. Zhang Yiming and Mr. Zhang. It will definitely not be a problem for you to be inserted into the team.

Of course, I still think that financial services and online education have more potential for growth and have a higher margin of safety, and there are several high-quality companies among the projects eliminated by Yunfeng..."

Opinions are good, but I don't want you to think, I want me to think!
Han Lie shook his head covertly, almost rolled his eyes.

The two big sinkholes in the future, one is the Internet financial service industry represented by P2P, and the other is the extracurricular education led by New Oriental.

With one strike, Nezha would have to turn around.

Is this the son of a top investor?

Well, I can't blame Yu Ping'an, he is just a second-generation elite, not a fairy or monster, but his performance is already very good.

The real idiots, such as the square face, are still in the CT debt and don't want to leave!
Actress Lie accepted Yu Ping'an's kindness with a serious attitude.

"Okay, I'll take a closer look, pick a few more items, and then ask your experts for advice... How about I arrange a table in the evening and you bring the team members to chat?"

After all, Han Lie was still a little anxious.

Byte’s B round of financing is already in the negotiation process, and it’s hard to say when it will be settled, anyway, there is not much time left for him.

The earlier you get involved, the more likely you are to take the initiative.

"sure!"

Yu Ping'an was also happy to have more contact with Han Lie, but he was very measured, raised his hand to look at his watch, and said goodbye.

"Then I won't affect Lie Shen's work, let's talk in detail at night."

After sending Yu Ping'an away, Han Lie finally couldn't hold back and punched hard.

This is different from making money in the market. The big A is there, and you can withdraw money at any time as long as you have the ability.

But the financing of Byte is different. Han Lie's foundation is in Shanghai, so he really can't reach others.

This wave, it's a big leak!
Wandering around the office twice to relieve his emotions, Han Lie immediately went to work.

When I came to the Quantitative Department, I didn’t have a word of gossip, and started to make strategies directly.

The specific process is simple and boring. Basically, it is to use different conditions to build an overall framework, including stock screening, buying conditions, selling conditions, fuzzy judgment, error correction mechanism and so on.

In the end, machine buying and selling were realized, and the winning rate was above 60%.

60% of the operations make money, and 40% of the operations lose money. At first glance, it seems very simple, but in fact, no company in the industry has been able to do it until 18.

Theoretically, the winning rate of quantitative trading can reach 55%, and the stop profit and stop loss should be done well. If the amount of funds is large enough, this strategy can win stably for a long time.

The essence of quantitative trading is the long-term certainty covered by a large number of exchanges.

However, [certainty] is itself a false proposition in the stock market, and complete certainty never exists in the market.

Therefore, it is necessary to use large funds and long-term transactions to cover all accidents from the perspective of probability.

Can't cover it?

That is inevitable, because the influence from outside the market exists all the time, and these influences can neither be predicted nor quantified, and can only be dealt with passively according to the K-line shape that comes out.

This part should be classified as a coping mechanism for fuzzy judgment, which is the real core of a quantitative strategy.

If you can't do it well, those mechanical external logics won't even outperform the market.

For example, there are too many people who know how to use the "first board tactics" that Han Lie is writing.

Buying conditions: the first daily limit within 30 trading days, the market opens within the same day after the daily limit is closed, the stock price is strong, and the second daily limit is closed within the day, you can buy before the daily limit.

Selling conditions: open low and go low the next day, and if you do not launch a strong attack for a long time, you should sell when the second rush high and fall back; slightly, slightly, slightly.

Well, there are a lot of selling conditions written, but there is no definite number, and it is impossible to have a definite number.

[Sell immediately with a profit of 5% or a loss of 3%]

Simple is simple, but this one-size-fits-all approach is destined to lose a lot of opportunities, resulting in losses that can be earned, and those who can earn 30% only earn 5%.

Therefore, fuzzy judgment is used here, and flexible adjustments are made according to different situations, rather than mechanically setting a number.

Quantitative engineers, the most important task is to write this part of the code.

It is a set of detailed rules for different situations, which jointly build a flexible space that requires temporary judgment.

The better this part is done, the higher the stability of the whole model.

Yu Ping'an's own company was stuck in vague judgments.

Buying strategy, anyone can write.

The operation of holding shares, increasing positions, and selling is the essence.

And Han Lie's awesomeness is that he knows the overall style of the market for a long time in the future, and has skills that far exceed the highest level of the current domestic market.

Technology has been iterating and the market has been evolving. His leadership is at the dual levels of time and space.

Busy until 5:30 pm, the frame was basically set up.

The algorithm code that can make fuzzy judgments is written by engineers. What Han Lie needs to do is to assign different weights to different detailed conditions.

For example, what kind of volume, what kind of price, what kind of trading fluctuations mean a sell signal, what level of response do different signals correspond to, and which kinds of signals appear at the same time will completely trigger the sell operation...

As simple as it sounds, it is even more difficult to do.

Of course, in the end, I still couldn't hold back Gu Bilie, and finished 1/5 of the progress in one afternoon.

If there is no accident, in three days, the strategy can enter the actual combat test stage.

After get off work, Brother Lie went to have a meal with Yunfeng's investment department. During the dinner, he easily talked through Byte's B round of financing.

The good news is that the Big Macs really don't have the idea of ​​going all-in on byte-scrambling.

Except for Shen Nanpeng of Sequoia who is particularly optimistic, including Sina Fund and Shunwei Capital, which finally invested in this round, they seem to be not very firm in their will.

Han Lie has a great chance.

The bad news is that the Zhang Yiming they said is a very thoughtful person with a clear understanding of financing, and Yunfeng's background can play a very limited role.

As soon as Ma Yun and Yu Feng made a move, Zhang Yiming bowed and bowed... It was purely overthinking.

Moreover, Liu Jun and Zhou Zijing in the seed round and DST in the A round are all purely financial investments, and they completely trust Zhang Yiming, so he does not lack Han Lie's voting rights.

This thing is more difficult than expected.

Unless... do some flirting?
Han Lie thought and thought, although he had no idea, he still made up his mind.

"This weekend, please help me make an appointment with Mr. Zhang. I will go to the imperial capital to pay a visit. I will talk to him in private first."

Yu Pingan didn't understand why Han Lie paid so much attention to bytes, but still readily agreed.

"Okay, brother Xu and I will accompany you to the imperial capital on weekends. With our Yunfeng's face, Mr. Zhang will definitely consider your conditions seriously."

Brother lie thanked him with a smile, without any anxiety and entanglement in his heart.

condition?

I don't even know what conditions I'm going to offer.

It really doesn't work...

Only the Overlord can force his bow!
(End of this chapter)