Rebirth 79: I opened a bank in the United States

Chapter 459 Return of Latin American Funds

As he gasped at the high long-term Treasury rates, Carter also had a clearer picture of what he was doing at Douglas.
In the news, I often hear that in order to curb inflation, a certain country’s central bank raised interest rates by a certain number of basis points; or in order to stimulate the economy and resist deflation, it lowered interest rates by a certain number of basis points.
正常听到的数字往往是加/减息50、100、150能加/减到350个基点，都已经是非常大的动作了！而一个基点代表的仅仅是0.01%，也就是说即便是波幅350个基点，换算成百分比也只有3.5%。

But what about myself now?

At least six or seven hundred basis points of interest rate cuts!
Carter used to think that the area here is small and the foundation is weak, so a little bit of tossing will be effective soon.Now look back.
Just like canyon relativity, there is relativity in economics.When the general interest rate was 15%, 12% for yourself was equivalent to a 300-point rate cut; if you don’t move and others raise interest rates, doesn’t that mean you are cutting interest rates? !

The more ruthless the outside world is, the more you let go.
business here.
"That's not right! Goodman, since the national bond interest rate has become like this, then our interest rate is actually... Don't there be people who want to do business come to borrow money?"

"There is another question. Who is paying for these additional national bonds? Where does the money come from?"

When there is no large amount of additional currency issued, the existing total currency circulation can probably be regarded as a fixed number.Now that there is generally less money circulating in the stock market and the bond market, who are the people who paid the money to buy the national debt? !

Are there still many people in the United States who have the money to buy this? !

"Business. If the business is big, we can't lend so much money. If the business is small, do small businessmen dare to start a business in this age?"

Goodman shook his head wanting to cry but was about to say something more when Carter suddenly slapped his thigh again:
"It's over! The interest rate on the national debt has reached 15.82%, how can I sell my 12% mortgage!"

"I was still thinking just now, since mortgages can be packaged into pass-through securities for public financing, why don't I also package commercial loans to some large companies with good credit into bonds and put them on the secondary market for financing? Use the amount of financing Come to make loans. Now think about it, alas, to attract them, you must have low interest rates, but the loans with low interest rates cannot be sold at all, and they cannot be financed.”

"Now it's a question of whether I can sell 1000 million of my sum."

Carter originally wanted to complain about why Julian didn't remind himself two days ago, and actually gave himself such an optimistic valuation.But then I thought about it, can I blame others? !
People themselves have said that they don't pay attention to the bond market.It’s just a suggestion based on experience, and judging from Julian’s growth experience, he is a person who lives in the era of low interest rates all year round!There is nothing wrong with instinctively considering the situation in the period of low interest rates.
"The annualized interest rate of 12% is not bad, isn't the interest rate on the 9-year treasury bond so high every time! Look at this quotation, the peak value appeared around September 30, and it has become a bit unstable since October. 10%-14% swings back and forth. Now November has entered the 15% range, and the period on the 11th has reached 13%. According to this trend, the 20% range has fluctuated for a while. By December or January next year, it should be can fall into the 13.14% range."

Goodman was the earliest insider about Carter's plan to securitize mortgages.If not, he would not have collected such detailed bond market information:
"For now, as long as you are conservative and don't start new projects, you are not in a hurry to use the money. Be patient and enjoy your campus life first."

"Well, that's what you say, but even if you don't talk about the possibility of thousands of people losing their jobs before the end of next year, you just see the opportunity, but you can't move it."

"There are many people rushing and fighting, but very few people have enough patience! The market is a thing, if you want to overcome it, you must learn to restrain your instincts"

"Okay, okay, let's put this question aside first. Another question, where do you think the funds for these national debts come from?"

After a wry smile, Carter temporarily put the topic aside.Turning to think about another question.
"Some domestically, some internationally are mainly international funds, especially those from southern Latin America. Recently, the number of people from Costa Rica, Honduras and other Central American countries entering from Florida has increased significantly."

"After the decoupling of the U.S. dollar from gold, there is no limit to the amount of issuance. In the past, a large amount of currency was issued, which caused the value of the domestic currency to fall, and when inflation was high, what do you think you would do? Oh, yes, and a loan interest rate Low, that is, low financing costs.”

"You mean, use money to invest in foreign countries, such as Central and South America, Asia, Africa, etc.? It should be Central and South America."

The value of the U.S. dollar in the country has decreased, but it can be taken to these Central and South American countries, and the value is not low!Coupled with falling financing costs, go to these places
Asia, Carter thought about it and ruled it out.Before a large amount of foreign capital entered China, out of the strategic goal of defending against the Soviet Union in the early years, it was almost time for American capital to enter Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.What are the four little dragons and four little tigers? Now the salary standard of Japanese workers is higher than that of American workers!

Asia is obviously not a good investment direction, while Africa.
On the one hand, that place is far away, on the other hand, the influence of the French in Africa is stronger than that of the United States.Compared with the slightly unfamiliar Africa, Latin America, the poor neighbor of the United States, should be more attractive to most American investors!
"Then due to the currency depreciation brought about by high inflation, there should be fewer and fewer US dollars exchanged for pesos, that is, the depreciation of the US dollar, which is equivalent to the appreciation of the peso in disguise. Invest in the Central and South American markets when the US dollar is valuable, and wait until later."

"Now the Federal Reserve's determination to curb inflation is obvious, and the two governments also support it. And the interest rate on national debt has risen. This has led to the return of those funds! It is the national debt bought with this money!"

"It should be like this. If you want to confirm, you can look at the national debt of Mexico, Costa Rica and other countries. I remember that it started in the mid-60s. At that time, there was a boom in investment in Central and South America. A lot of hot money poured in, and these countries The legal tender of the country has a low international reputation, and their bond issuance should also be issued in dollar bonds.”

"If the funds from Latin America return to the United States at this time, then in addition to the economic depression, their local debt repayment should also have problems. At least, the speed of repayment will slow down, which should be inevitable."

One hand of treasury bonds and one hand of US dollars.
When the domestic economic situation is good, interest rates are lowered, and coins are scattered all over the world.Once the domestic situation deteriorates, the interest rate on national debt will be raised, and US dollars will be quickly withdrawn from the world.
Among the withdrawn dollars, do you think there will be profits from the exploitation of these dollars in their investment places?
And these profits, from another perspective, aren't they the wealth of the invested country?
(End of this chapter)