Rebirth 79: I opened a bank in the United States

Chapter 780 The Important Point of Time
The charm of economics comes from its multidimensionality and uncertainty!
There are many factors that affect the economic trend, and sometimes even the same situation, the result is often the opposite.
For example, the old saying "Antiques in prosperous times, gold in troubled times" has a hint of economic "value hedging" in this sentence.With the advent of troubled times, the price of daily necessities soars, which is a manifestation of inflation.
When inflation is serious, the price of gold will also rise, which is bullish for gold, which seems inevitable.But inflation will also bring bad news to gold at the same time
The internal logic is also very simple: if the inflation rate is high, the central bank of the country will most likely raise interest rates in order to curb inflation to put the brakes on the overheated economy.And raising interest rates will bring more benefits to the bond market. Just like the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate has soared to 13%, a lot of money has poured into the bond market, especially the bond market. What about gold?
Except that treasury bonds can be used as a value hedging product for people to buy treasury bonds to combat the decline in currency value under high inflation.Can houses also be invested as a safe-haven asset?

If all the money has gone to the bond market and the property market, what else is there for gold besides "meow meow"?

Following this logic, Carter looked back at the "Plaza Accord".
As a person who experienced all of this, or in other words, the person who reacted the fastest and smelled that the shocking bubble was coming, Carter suddenly felt that the historical records were still too pale
For Japan, which is extremely dependent on external demand, in the face of political pressure from the United States, the Bank of Japan does not open the money printing machine, which means that the growth rate of industrial output in Japan as a whole will be interrupted.And once the money printing machine is opened up, it will lead to almost unavoidable inflation
As low-lying places in money flows, housing and stock markets.
"Julie, Jim, I just thought of a question. You said that the Bank of Japan may print a lot of money to depress the value of the yen under the pressure of the appreciation of the yen. It seems that it should only be marked higher, but The actual value should still stabilize, in other words, the exchange rate should still be about the same as it is now, I understand!"

Carter shook his head with a wry smile.
I found myself a little bit wrapped up in it.

The current situation is that if the Bank of Japan does not issue more currency, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will inevitably fluctuate greatly, just like before and after the Plaza Accord, around 240 or 250 yen can be exchanged for 1 U.S. dollar, and it becomes about 120 yen to 1 U.S. dollar .

As for the issuance of additional currency, it is only to maintain the current exchange rate of about 240:1. But the yen, the number of yen currency in circulation has increased!
As the largest market country for Japanese products, the United States.The sale of Japanese goods in the U.S. market must be priced in U.S. dollars, and the receipts are also U.S. dollars.If the exchange rate remains unchanged, it means that the yen needed by the United States, whether it is outflow or inflow, has not changed from before.

Then those extra yen
"I seem to understand why housing prices in Tokyo have started to rise this year!"

The U.S. does not need the extra yen. Generally speaking, in Japan’s consumer market, the transmission effect of the daily consumer goods market that involves residents’ daily life is often the slowest.
When the prices of daily consumer goods did not rise, so many yen would not be used in this market.Then, these extra currencies can only go to the property market and stock market!

"Oh? The housing prices in Tokyo are starting to rise?"

The appearance of this new information immediately attracted the attention of everyone present.

Julian could understand the situation that Carter almost got himself involved just now, after all, he was just a kid who didn't graduate.It is an advantage to have more divergent thinking.
But prices in Tokyo are rising
"When did it start to rise?"

"It will be during the summer vacation this year, around June but maybe in May, or earlier?"

After taking out the less and less cigarettes and lighting them, Carter frowned slightly. This situation seemed a little strange again.
"I arrived in Japan at the end of June this year, probably around June 25. I stayed for four or five days. When I arrived in Japan, I happened to see long queues outside some sales offices in Tokyo. The sight. I was happy at the time because I had a lot of real estate in Tokyo."

"Hahaha, then you're going to post it!"

He laughed and joked with Carter, but none of them cared about it.

Although whether it is the appreciation of the yen or the flow of a large amount of yen into the property market, it is absolutely good news for Carter's investment!
But in their view, the "many" in Carter's mouth is just a few houses.

After all, as a small rich man, it is normal to buy some houses, villas and so on all over the world for vacation and fun.

Just a few properties, how much money can you make?

Ordinary people may think a lot, but these people present can't look down on them
Compared to this, their attention is more in another direction:
"Did the Japanese government make any movement around that time?"

"I haven't paid much attention to it."

"Will it be related to the demands of this Japanese government? I heard some friends from the Asian Chamber of Commerce seem to have mentioned that the Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone who took office last year was quite radical."

Listening to the discussion in his ears, Carter's mind was also spinning rapidly.

Not to mention that these people are extremely smart, but they are not stupid either!
As soon as I heard Carter mentioned the time when land prices in Japan rose, I immediately grasped the point of the problem!
Caterpillar's "Morgan Report" was released in September, which officially bombarded Japanese companies and pointed out that the exchange rate was unreasonable.

The so-called inside information
That's right, sitting beside Rick, the grandson of "Mr. Republican", Carter does have some inside information: Brother Genzi suddenly called out a blank time in his work schedule in November.
In addition, in October, the current U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Ronald Reagan (same surname, no typo) included a telephone conversation with Japanese Minister of Finance Noboru Takeshita
These two work arrangements were not originally included in the work plan. They were both at the end of September and the beginning of October. When the schedule for the next month was required, they were suddenly added to the plan.
Combined with Caterpillar's high-profile topic, which has caused a large number of American companies to voice their support?Or call it an argument?

Carter didn't know how to describe Caterpillar's condemnation this time, but after summarizing these pieces of information,
I really can't blame myself for being speculative! !

Putting these thoughts aside temporarily, Carter quietly listened to the messages from the others.Now it was Jim's turn to speak:

"I heard from a friend who works in the United Nations that since last year, those Japanese representatives have changed from the previous 3S style and become very active. I think this should also be the influence of the new Japanese prime minister."

(End of this chapter)