Rebirth 79: I opened a bank in the United States

Chapter 952 The market is irrational
"Let's clear your position first. I feel terrified when I see your situation!"

Over the weekend, Carter took the market fluctuation data and his own position ratio to find Julian and Rogers to discuss countermeasures.To be honest, Carter underestimated the speed of the foam blowing too much!

Before experiencing these severe stock market crashes, it seems that no one will pay attention to these issues!No, it should be said that sometimes even if there is a lesson from the past, it may not necessarily arouse the vigilance of future generations!
The most intuitive example is the impending burst of the Japanese real estate financial bubble!
Although the mood in Japan is still not completely crazy.But among the people, "land will never depreciate, because the total amount of land is fixed!" Such a saying has gradually spread to Carter's ears.In the previous life in memory, Carter also heard, "If you have money, you can buy a house!"

There is no reason in the market!
Carter himself is not a rational player
"I know you are very greedy for the exaggerated returns after the bubble burst this time, but it is too risky! Listen to me, boy, you can go to the stock market while shorting the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 stocks at the same time. Go long their stock index futures!"

"This is the most stable arbitrage model! For the Dow Jones Industrial Index futures, the multiplier for an index point is $15. Just look at the situation these days."

"Calculated from 2640 in the past few days, a contract needs 2376 US dollars. As of today, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has risen to 2672 points, then the profit of a contract is 480 US dollars. And if I use 20 billion US dollars to do long stock index In terms of futures, I can own more than 84 contracts of different indices. That’s more than [-] million and this is minus my losses on short positions!”

Carter reported the result with a smile
He didn't deny Julian's words, which made sense.In the long run, the long-short strategy does work!After all, every time you short a target, you find a related target to go long, so no matter whether the market in this industry is rising or falling, you will face a situation of losing money and making money at the same time!
Even if the judgment is wrong and the loss is more than the profit, the loss is controllable!
But the problem is
"This is the way you fund managers play, not like me, a speculator! Well, gentlemen, I invite you here to analyze the market together! The previous increase was already exaggerated, and by eight It's getting worse this month! I feel like I can't bear it anymore, and I'm ready to sell when the market opens next week."

"The only concern I have now is whether it will really fall as I expected? Although my wisdom tells me, it will definitely! Even this kind of fierce rise has a feeling of returning to the past before dying. But, after all, with such a large body, I still have some worries in my heart!"

"You said it yourself, you are sure he will fall! You, better not ask us!"

Slowly sipping the coffee in his hand, Rogers, who only made a fortune in Austria two years ago, also got involved this time.Even faster than Carter!
As early as the first half of 1987, Rogers started short selling operations!But as a purely independent investor, his mind is obviously not as big as Carter's!Otherwise, there is no need to say anything else, just during this period of time, with such an exaggerated increase, the additional margin required would kill him!

Similarly, it is precisely because the position configuration is less extreme than that of Carter, and there is more room for movement, which directly leads to the appearance of the same two short positions with completely different performances at this time.
"It's like flipping a coin! The moment you toss the coin, you already have a decision in your mind. It doesn't matter whether the coin comes up heads or tails, doesn't it?"

"Look at what you said just now. You have already stated your decision yourself. It is too redundant to ask our opinions now! Besides, Zhu Li gave you advice just now. I suggest you readjust your position allocation. ...to use his long-short strategy to reduce risk, but you don't listen!"

"Actually, that's not what I just suggested. As soon as he arrived in New York last month, I told him my thoughts and suggestions!"

Shrugging his shoulders lightly, Julian cooperated with Rogers and unceremoniously stabbed Carter in the heart!

"Okay, okay, I'm talking too much, can't I stop asking?!"

Facing the joint attack of the two, Carter could only smile wryly.

And looking back, Rogers' words are not unreasonable.People's suggestion, if you say it, you have already said it
From the moment I decided to stud to the empty side, I was doomed to take extremely high risks!There are ways to avoid risk, but it will reduce the income!
For Carter, those who worked so hard could only earn a few hundred million in the end.
If that's the case, I definitely won't do it!
It's just such a small amount of money. If I honestly wait for ROG to sell more computers, the money will come. There is no need to do this, is it?
The greater the benefit, the greater the risk!
This point, even if the Heavenly King and Lao Tzu come, they will not be able to change it.
"Then today is a small get-together, how about relaxing with me before the storm comes? From now on, we won't talk about business"

"Okay, no problem!"

Jim Rogers was the first to agree with a smile.On the contrary, Julian seemed a little absent-minded.
"I feel like I shouldn't have come here. After hearing what you said, I'm thinking now whether I should increase my short position."

Scratching the back of his head, Julian said thoughtfully:

"The decline is predictable, we have this consensus. But I feel that, what you mean inside and outside the words, this time it will be quite a sharp plunge"

"Hey, Julie! It's boring for you to do this. It's agreed not to talk about business!"

Carter's face darkened when he heard this, although he knew that there were too many short sellers in the market today.But when there are short sellers everywhere.
"No! This competition is too fierce. I feel that I should go back to the office now, and quickly call my traders for a meeting to discuss how many stocks we should sell after the market opens on Monday!"

"Are you sure you will start selling next Monday?"

"confirmed!"

Look at Julian, look at Rodgers.Carter didn't hide.
In other words, it's hard to hide this matter!
Compared with the total face value of more than 800 billion, I sold 10 billion worth of stocks on Monday. For myself, I sold a small amount.But for the market.
Of course, for U.S. stocks whose total market capitalization is now approaching 10 trillion U.S. dollars, the daily trading volume is more than 10 billion.But that doesn't mean that the market will not notice the new one billion transactions!

If you don't know your own position and others don't know what you want to do, it may only make people feel a little bit wrong.As for the two in front of them, they are well aware of these situations!
When the trading volume on Monday shows a certain increase compared with the previous days, they will throw it to the third day at most, and they will definitely guess that it is their own shot!
The only problem now is:

"Robert, and Jim, when do you plan to take action? We don't care about others, but the few of us, don't crash the car!"

(End of this chapter)