The male god of magic capital

In the trading room of Chengtian Holding Company, Luo Cheng quietly looked at the trend chart of the CSI 300 Index.

Today, the major A-share sectors have fallen, and the medical and biological sector has also fallen a lot. The position ratio of Chengtian Mixed Pioneer is 30%, so the asset scale has also shrunk a lot. However, the current cash flow of Chengtian Mixed Pioneer exceeds 1300 billion , There has been no action, waiting to buy the bottom of the stock market.

Chengtian Private Equity Fund holds the stocks of Zhifei Biotech, Hengrui Medicine, WuXi PharmaTech, and Mindray Medical. Because the stock prices of these four major medical giants have fallen, the asset size of Chengtian Private Equity Fund is also shrinking, but it’s okay, long-term holding Luo Cheng is not worried at all, just wait for the stock market to continue to rise.

Today, the share price of Chengtian Holdings also fell below 5 yuan per share again, falling to 4.9 yuan per share, with a market value of 490 billion. Recently, the stock price of Chengtian Holdings fluctuated extremely violently. , it can be seen that many people are selling the shares of Chengtian Holdings today, and the share price of Chengtian Holdings moves with the market. Basically, when the market falls, the share price of Chengtian Holdings will fall, and when the market rises, the share price of Chengtian Holdings will rise , obviously many institutional traders are manipulating the stock price of Chengtian Holdings according to the trend of the market.

The shares of Pharmaron Chemicals held by the Roche Family Foundation have also shrunk a little, but it doesn't matter anymore.

Today is Friday, the stock market has closed, and you can buy bottoms next week.

"Next Monday, the stock market will still fall. Boss, are we going to buy the bottom next Monday?" Mo Changliang asked.

Luo Cheng thought for a while: "There's no rush for now, let's see the situation."

In the following Saturday and Sunday, major funds and securities companies expressed their opinions one after another.

Huatai Securities Jiang Chao: There is not much room for further easing in the United States as scheduled

Guotai Securities commented on the Fed's interest rate cut: be wary of market uncertainty caused by the revision of interest rate cut expectations

Tianhai Securities commented on the Fed's interest rate cut: Huaxia's central bank is not expected to follow suit in the short term
Orient Securities: A hawkish rate cut
Lion Securities: Behavior is more dovish, speech is more hawkish
Chief Economist of Jardine Securities: The Fed's interest rate cut is expected, but outside the rules
Although this rate cut was expected, it was outside the rules.From the perspective of expectations, the market expects the probability of interest rate cuts to be as high as 100% before this meeting, and has been fully Price-In by major core assets. Therefore, the realization of interest rate cuts is not only to stabilize the inflation trend, but also to prevent market sentiment reversals. Systemic financial risk.

In the evening, Luo Cheng, Gao Yang, Zhang Hanlin, Zhou Yuanping, Ling Guangchang and others gathered together.

Everyone was discussing the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Luo Cheng smiled and said, "What do you think?"

Gao Yang thought for a while and said: "This time the United States cut interest rates as scheduled, ended the balance sheet shrinking ahead of schedule, and the Federal Reserve started to cut interest rates again, and there are still expectations for further interest rate cuts within the year, which is conducive to the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate.

However, the domestic monetary policy is mainly determined according to the domestic situation. The current interest rate of my country's money market funds is near the lower limit of the interest rate corridor, and it will still remain reasonable and sufficient, but there is not much room for further easing. The focus of future monetary policy is not to cut interest rates directly, but to Through the "unification of interest rates" to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, guide the bank loan quotation interest rate to be more market-oriented, and achieve the purpose of reducing the financing cost of the entity. "

Zhang Hanlin nodded: "Actually, before the interest rate meeting in July, assets such as long-term U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks fully responded to the expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year. But from the perspective of U.S. employment, inflation, and room for interest rate cuts, the market's confidence in the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year Expectations may have been overplayed.

With the Fed's policy decision returning to the fundamentals of the United States, the revision of overfull interest rate cut expectations may mean that there is potential uncertainty in the market. "

Luo Cheng also nodded, thought for a while and said, "First of all, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds have relatively little change. The market has already priced in the most optimistic rate cut by the Fed this year. Yields may not hit new lows this year.

Second, the downside risk of US stocks has increased.It is difficult for the denominator to support U.S. stock prices better marginally, but there is still downward pressure on corporate earnings at the numerator side, which increases the downside risk of U.S. stocks.

The third dollar index fluctuated at a high level.In the short term, the probability of an upward trend in interest rate differentials between the US and Europe is rising; in the medium term, nominal GDP growth in the US and Europe is under downward pressure at the same time, but the gap is likely to narrow.

The fourth dollar index may be strong in the short term, but there is downward pressure in the medium term.Fourth, the Central Bank of China is not expected to follow suit in the short term to cut interest rates.The Fed's "preventive interest rate cut" has little currency spillover effect on China. Although the current downward pressure on China's economy has increased, the pressure from "maintaining stability" is not great, and the risk of deflation has not yet become apparent. The constraints on asset prices such as housing prices are still in place. Higher, it is not necessary to follow the Fed to cut interest rates. "

Zhou Yuanping thought for a while and said: "The Fed's interest rate cut this time is in line with expectations, but there are some hawkish signals, including Powell's view that the interest rate cut is a mid-term adjustment of the economic cycle, and two voters voted against it. I think these signals are mainly to ease the market's worries. The rate cut itself reflects that the Fed seems willing to follow the market to adjust its policy. Economic uncertainty and low inflation are the reasons expressed by the Fed. Of course, the pressure from the president is also difficult to ignore. Therefore, I It is believed that these hawkish signals are temporary because the Fed avoids being too aggressive to avoid causing too much concern, but following the market to adjust policies, the pressure of the US President, and the degree of uncertainty will make the Fed continue to cut interest rates within the year."

Ling Guangchang also said: "I think this interest rate cut will open the window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates with a high probability. It is expected that the Fed may have 2-3 preventive interest rate cuts this year, and the pace of interest rate cuts next year will continue. Compared with the interest rate adjustment monetary policy In terms of operation, the Fed pays more attention to the health of its balance sheet. It is the expansion of the balance sheet that drives the United States out of the subprime mortgage crisis. Therefore, when the U.S. economy is sluggish, cutting interest rates to restore economic momentum can offset certain negative impacts and reduce the pressure on future balance sheet expansion. "

Luo Cheng: "The stock market will rise soon!"

"I think so!"

"Me too!"

"Let's buy the bottom!"

"Haha, then buy the bottom!"

Luo Cheng smiled and said, "But the stock market hasn't bottomed yet, so I'll go buy the bottom first!"

Luo Cheng has changed his mind. Before that, he planned to buy the bottom next week, but now he plans to buy the bottom next Monday, letting Cheng Tian mix the pioneer's funds into the market.

Guotai Securities, Huatai Securities, Orient Securities, Tianhai Securities, Lion Securities, and Jardine Securities will definitely continue to sell stocks. Luo Cheng directly eats up all the selling orders in the medical and biological sector and the food and beverage sector!