A Man of Science and Engineering in Troubled Times Wandering in the Late Qing Dynasty

As we all know, Japan is a small country and its people are aggressive.

The combination of these two factors contributed to the extremely high expansion desire of the Japanese. Their dream is to break through the small island and become a mainland country.

However, with Japan's weak national strength, they themselves understand that they must never fight head-to-head with a big country. If they rely on resources and size to fight, they will inevitably fail. Therefore, the Japanese adopted such a fighting strategy: gambling.

And it's a big gamble, a gamble is a gamble on the fate of the country.

There have been several very famous gambling behaviors in the history of Japan. If you lose, you will go bankrupt and you will have nothing left. If you win, you will marry Bai Fumei as CEO.

A perfect interpretation of what is the coexistence of risks and opportunities.

The first time was the Sino-Japanese War of [-]-[-]. Japan invested heavily, and the emperor's private property was used to build the navy. Through this war, Japan became the number one in Asia.And if it fails, it will almost go bankrupt.

But Japan finally won the bet once, and got [-] million taels of silver, which was then used for education and the construction of the navy, which also laid the groundwork for its continued gamble.

The second time is naturally the upcoming Russo-Japanese War. For Japan, if it wins this war, it will join the ranks of the great powers; if it loses, it may even usher in the fate of subjugation.

Li Yu glanced at the ronin behind Tou Shanman. He must have a gun and a knife in his waist, and he wanted to take it out just now, but he knew it was a revolver just by looking at the outline.

Li Yu asked, "Can I borrow Mr.'s gun?"

Ronin glanced at Toushanman, Toushanman thought for a while and said, "Take it out."

Li Yu laughed and said, "It doesn't matter if you unload the bullet."

Ronin took out the bullet and put the gun on the table.

Li Yu went on to say: "Your side wants to fight against Russia. It so happens that Russia has a game called Russian Roulette. This game is a gamble. Only one bullet is put in the gun, and after random rotation, the trigger is pulled toward the head. If If you don’t get shot, you will get a huge lottery, after all, you have placed your biggest bet—your wealth and life.”

Although Tou Shanman didn't know much about mathematics, he was also a smart man, and he quickly guessed his metaphor from Li Yu's words. Now Japan is the man with the revolver.

Tou Shanman said: "Mr. continue to talk."

Li Yu said: "I can directly state that, mathematically speaking, it is the same to shoot first and then shoot, and the probability of being shot is one-sixth. However, in the current situation, you have obviously fired once. And he was not shot; if he shoots himself again, the probability of being shot is not one-sixth, but expanded to one-fifth."

It involves the determination of some conditional probabilities, but the current situation is not the case of conditional probabilities.

Tou Shanman doesn't know much about probability, but he just made a rough guess: "Your Majesty means that the probability of being shot will increase in the future."

Li Yu said, "That's right, until I was finally shot."

Toushanman's eyebrows frowned hard, but quickly stretched out: "This world is cruel. Since we have made a choice, we will not back down. But your lord can indeed see the subtleties. Although he didn't say anything, it has already been heard by me. Everything has been said. As a scholar, I can see clearly the complicated situation in the world and can give such vivid examples, which really admires me.”

Tou Shanman is indeed a person with a good brain, but whether he is smart or not and his personality are two different things, and they don't work together.

Like many Japanese upper class people, he is full of self-confidence and does not believe that he will lose.

Li Yu said: "Mr. Toushan is too famous."

Tou Shanman suddenly asked again: "I still want to ask, if you turn around and shoot every time, what will be the difference?"

He actually asked a good question.

Li Yu said: "If that's the case, the probability of being shot will become lower and lower for latecomers, and the probability of being shot will become an infinitely many, but convergent series."

大体上第一个中枪的概率是1/6，然后此后依次是5/6的n次方再乘以1/6，必然是越来越小。（因为每次都需要考虑条件概率，之前未中枪概率是5/6）。

Tou Shanman did not understand the concept of "convergence" and "series" in the second half of Li Yu's sentence, but he understood Li Yu's mention that the probability of being shot would become lower and lower in the future, so he said: "In this way, the form will not The better it gets, the wider the road will be.”

Li Yu said: "Unfortunately, this situation requires reshuffle every time, but the world will not completely reshuffle the cards casually, everyone is fighting. Even I think the first situation is too optimistic, because others Maybe instead of six bullet holes for your gun, you'll have five or even four."

Toushanman opened his mouth wide, the situation would be very sad, the probability of being shot is too high.

But Tou Shanman quickly calmed down: "I think the Great Japanese Empire is blessed by Amaterasu, and there are so many loyal warriors. I believe that there are not six bullet holes, but sixteen or twenty-six bullet holes."

Li Yu was noncommittal.

The Japanese are hard to persuade, especially at this time, there are many radicals.

Moreover, even in the 21st century, Japan still wants to gamble on its national destiny.

An example is the automobile industry. Even though new energy has many visible problems, it is already the general trend.

However, considering its own geographical conditions, Japan chose to bet on hydrogen energy.

Although to be honest, hydrogen energy is indeed more environmentally friendly, but you have to tell me how hydrogen comes from first.

water to hydrogen?
Furthermore, Japan has a large number of hydrogen energy patents in its hands. Once it is rolled out, it can indeed become a leader in the automotive industry.

However, after careful study, it can be found that although Japan has many hydrogen energy patents, they are basically concentrated in hydrogen storage and transportation.

The most critical hydrogen production is not there.

Everyone knows that the cost of hydrogen production is extremely high and the danger is great. Japan is equivalent to throwing this big problem to Europe, America and China.

If one of Europe and the United States breaks through the difficulties of hydrogen energy technology, Japan can collect money for the subsequent promotion.

The abacus was so loud that even across the ocean, the White House, the Elysee Palace, the Forbidden City, and Buckingham Palace could all hear it.

Everyone is not stupid.

It can only be said that even if hydrogen energy has a prospect, it will not be able to be commercialized on a large scale for at least ten or even decades.

But the Japanese seem to be used to gambling, whether it is limited by historical factors, geographical factors or cultural factors.

There are several world-class automobile manufacturers in Japan, but none of them entered new energy early, and it is already too late.

The train will soon arrive in Changchun, and Tou Shanman must get off here, otherwise Russians will be everywhere when he arrives in Harbin, and his movements will be very restricted.

Tou Shanman looked out the window, and asked Li Yu again solemnly: "If your lord continues to remain neutral, I think we will meet again. When you come back by this train, I will still meet you in the northeast. "

What this guy said, it seems that the Northeast is really in the bag.

Li Yu said: "At that time, there were probably tens of thousands of Russian troops coming along on the train."

But Tou Shanman said confidently: "At the very least, the Great Japanese Empire will not lose to them in terms of military tactics."

"Di-"

A long siren sounded, and the train entered Changchun Station.

Tou Shanman stood up: "Mr. Li Yu, we will meet later."

In the future, they are likely to come to the door again, and they can't avoid it even if they want to, so Li Yu had no choice but to reply: "There will be a period later."

The train stops for a long time. After all, there is only such a main line in Northeast China, so the time for loading and unloading is very long, and there is no mechanized setup. Many tasks have to be done manually.

When the train continued to move, Li Yu looked at the land outside the window in a daze.

Lu Bicheng on the side looked at Li Yu's melancholy expression and said, "I heard from Master Yan that Li Zhongtang had made a plan to drive away tigers and wolves, and let Japan and Russia compete with each other. Wouldn't it be possible to receive the advice of the fisherman?" profit?"

Li Yu smiled wryly and said: "Drive tigers to devour wolves? At one time and another, Xun Yu proposed this timing to Cao Cao, which can already coerce the emperor to command the princes, but now what can we do in the face of Japan and Russia? The so-called 'drive the tiger'" The word "drive" naturally means to have the ability to drive a tiger. But now that I am a fat chicken, do I have to pull out my feathers and bring an iron pot and sit in the pot in front of them to drive the tiger away?"

Lu Bicheng has read history, but like most people at present, he does not understand the general situation of the world. After all, the authorities are obsessed, so he asked: "Then what should the court do?"

"What should I do?" Li Yu sighed, "Let's think about how to become stronger first. In the face of absolute strength, any scheme is like a child playing tricks on the old world. It's useless. That's why I say drive the tiger away. The wolf metaphor is inappropriate, but it is more like Chen Youliang and Zhu Yuanzhang fighting in the south of the Yangtze River at the end of the Yuan Dynasty and the beginning of the Ming Dynasty, and the fight was over who was finally qualified to eat the fat of the Yuan Dynasty."

Lu Bicheng understood: "We were just meat on the chopping board."

Li Yu sighed: "Almost. There is a saying that a first-rate country should be a chess player, a second-rate country should be a chess piece, and a third-rate country should be a chessboard. If you can't be a chess player, you can't use any strategy."

Lu Bicheng is also very enlightened: "Can't we be so desperate?"

Li Yu smiled wryly again and said, "If you insist, the rivalry between Japan and Russia can only ease the situation in the Northeast and slow down the occupation by the powerful."

But the strategy of exchanging space for time did not make much sense to the Qing court.

In this war, the Qing court didn't even dare to fart, and just watched others fight in their own homes, which was very humiliating.

However, the relationship between China and Japan improved afterward.

After the Russo-Japanese War, Lu Xun and other students studying in Japan began to be vigilant because of Japan's populism and discrimination against Chinese, but generally speaking, China's sense of friendship with Japan was still improved at that time.

In addition, there are some people discussing what will happen if Russia wins. In fact, it is clear from the situation that Britain, France, the United States and other countries are unwilling to see Russia win; they also don’t want Japan to win too easily, or even if Japan wins easily. Britain and France will find an opportunity to bleed.

Russia is still the ideal main force for the confrontation with Germany and Austria on the Western Front. A balance of power and mutual containment is what the current world leaders, Britain and France, want to see.

If the Qing Dynasty can show some ability and willingness to fight against Japan and Russia, Britain will most likely support the Qing Dynasty and Japan and Russia in bloodletting each other.