A Man of Science and Engineering in Troubled Times Wandering in the Late Qing Dynasty

Chapter 452 Unexpected
Wilson and Li Yu took the same train, and chatted with Li Yu about game theory on the way.This is a popular subject in all walks of life, and politics is no exception.

"I always carry Mr. Academician's two books with me. I studied mathematics in college, but what really made me feel the charm of mathematics was unexpectedly Mr. Academician's game theory and chaos theory. Whether it is chaos theory The carp effect, or the wonderful models in game theory, all make me excited!" Wilson flipped through these two books and said, "Many of our professors at Princeton University often praise him."

Li Yu said: "I would be even more grateful if the professors could continue to help me improve the proofs of the two theories."

"That's the thing for mathematicians," Wilson said. "I can only focus on the proven conclusions. After all, mathematics is no longer within my grasp."

Li Yu said with a smile: "The purpose of writing these two books is not just for the field of mathematics, but to hope that more people will be exposed to the beauty of mathematics."

Wilson said: "As the United States becomes stronger, I start to think about the pattern of the world, and game theory is one of the best weapons. For example, the future relationship with the United Kingdom, and the relationship between European countries. You know, the situation in Europe is very important to us. trade is vital.”

Li Yu said: "The relations between European countries are in a mess."

"Indeed," Wilson said, "I am paying special attention to Russia, which I have looked down upon in the past. I remember that the French historian Tocqueville made a prediction 70 years ago: In the future, there will be two countries, each of which will dominate half of the world's destiny. That’s the United States and Russia.”

Li Yu was surprised. This man named Tocqueville was quite accurate. At least it was like this during the Soviet Union. It was not easy to make such a judgment in the 1830s.

Wilson continued: "Clausewitz, the contemporary Prussian military scientist, also said that war is the continuation of politics. In my opinion, politics is the embodiment of economy. Therefore, the strength of a country directly depends on the strength of the economy. Weakness continues to extend, and the strength of the economy is determined by industrial strength. Today's industrial era is no longer the same as when Britain carried out the Industrial Revolution."

To be able to become the president of the United States, Wilson still had a strong vision.He also has a rather academic style and is meticulous in his speech.

The United States relied on the Second Industrial Revolution to catch up.

In the first industrial revolution, building a steam-powered industrial system required hundreds of thousands of basic parts.Industrial countries are required to have an industrial population of millions.

By the second industrial revolution, with the emergence of the internal combustion engine and electricity, the number of basic parts expanded by an order of magnitude, reaching millions.

From this moment on, industrialization became a great power game.We need an industrial population of tens of millions, otherwise we won’t even be able to reach the threshold.

The vast territory, abundant resources, and huge population are all key.

At the beginning of the twentieth century, only Russia and the United States met the above conditions.

(At this time, the Qing Company and Asan were indeed not favored by others. Moreover, with the Qing generation, our resource exploration was lagging behind, and our resources were actually a bit unable to keep up. But it is not a bad thing, otherwise even if it is explored, it will be It was plundered by the great powers and the even more hateful little Japan.)
Li Yu said: "Industry can be reflected in technology, and technology cannot be separated from education."

"This is why I am passionate about education." Wilson obviously agreed with what Li Yu said and went straight to the root.

Li Yuze suddenly felt inspired. It seemed that the saying "The Coercion of the Times" was indeed well-deserved. Even if he did not want to get involved in military affairs, engaging in education and business would inevitably be inextricably linked to it.

Fortunately, it's only indirect.

Wilson continued: "Today's Europe is not peaceful. Britain lost the Boer War, Russia lost the Russo-Japanese War, and the two powers on the European continent, Germany and France, are incompatible with each other because of the Franco-Prussian War. If, I mean if, Germany and France break out War, the world will be completely different."

Li Yu asked: "Do you also think there will be a war in Europe?"

"Also?" Wilson said, "So, you also have the same argument. War has never stopped. I think the next one to fight will be Germany and France. Now both of them are actively preparing their armies."

In fact, not only Wilson, many people have made similar judgments. The current situation is easy to judge: most French people want to fight Germany again.

Today, Germany is strong, but France is not weak. It has been accumulating strength to take back Alsace and Lorraine - even Chinese junior high school students know this because they have studied "The Last Lesson" in Chinese class.

It's just that no one would think of getting out of control.

Li Yu said: "There is a very typical model in game theory, the coward's game, which can roughly describe the game between great powers."

Li Yu previously told the Russian ambassador that the model of the coward game itself is very simple: two drivers drive toward each other, and the first one to get out of the way will be ridiculed as a "coward."

If both sides show weakness and give way to the lane, it will obviously end in a draw, and both sides will gain positive benefits;
If both sides are fighting to the death, then it is impossible to say that the car will be destroyed and people will be killed, and the benefits of both sides will be negative infinity;
But what really fascinates people is how one party pretends to be stubborn and the other party has no choice but to show weakness.At this time, pretending to be stubborn is the most profitable.

But Wilson had obviously done his own research and said: "I know whoever pretends to fight to the end will gain the most benefits."

Li Yu said: "The problem lies in communication, that is, how to make the other party believe that you will fight to the end, and at the same time be able to understand that the other party will choose to show weakness. This is the key."

Wilson said: "I'm afraid it will be difficult for others to obtain such confidential information unless the intelligence work is extremely good."

"And in addition to game theory, don't forget what the carp effect mentioned. The world is a whole, and any slight disturbance will cause a huge chain reaction. What's more, it is difficult to predict how a war between two powerful countries will develop, so..."

Wilson continued: "So you can't hope to control the situation."

Li Yu nodded.

Wilson smiled and said: "It's so fun to talk to smart people! Come, let's play chess again to pass the time on the road."

Naturally, chess is played in the United States, but Li Yu is not familiar with chess, so he can only play casually.

Wilson got off the train in New Jersey, and Li Yu continued riding to New York.

Situ Meitang and Zou Zhou greeted him at the station. Situ Meitang said happily: "Good brother!"

Li Yu cupped his fists and said, "Brother Situ, you're fine."

Situ Meitang said: "I am very well."

Li Yu said: "Time flies so fast. More than two years have passed. Things are good here in New York, right?"

"Very good! It couldn't be better!" Situ Meitang said, "The progress of the factory is extremely smooth. Even if the stock market crash in the United States is now happening, it has not affected our business at all."

Li Yu said: "That's good."

After walking out of the station, he met many Chinese people. Li Yu asked curiously: "Where are they going?"

Situ Meitang said: "Go and listen to the speech."

"Speech?" Li Yu asked.

"What, you didn't even know about this after all this trouble?" Situ Meitang asked in surprise, "Kang Youwei came to New York."

"What is he here for?" Li Yu said.

Situ Meitang said: "I heard that the Royalist Association is being reorganized and some kind of National Constitutional Association is to be established."

Li Yu said: "Let's go and join in the fun."

Li Yu read the newspaper on the road and roughly knew what was going on.

After the Qing government announced its intention to establish a constitution, Liang Qichao was eager to try. In order to participate more effectively in the constitution and to increase his influence at home in the future, Liang Qichao prepared to organize a political party based on foreign experience, and then wrote a letter to Kang Youwei who was vacationing on a small island in Sweden. wrote a letter:

"In today's situation, the revolutionary party is trying its best to spread throughout the country. I must do my best to fight against it today. Otherwise, our party will have no foothold. Therefore, after opening the headquarters in Shanghai, we plan to send personnel to various provinces, states and counties to give speeches and hold meetings. Occupying a county means having the power of a county; occupying a prefecture means having the power of a prefecture.

"...the name of the Loyalist Society is too narrow and embarrassing. It is jealous of the government internally and criticized by the revolutionary party externally. It is difficult to expand."

After Kang Youwei read the letter, he also became energetic. He actually rushed back to New York from Sweden and began to reorganize the Royalist Association into the "National Constitutional Association."However, Liang Qichao and Xiong Xiling felt that the name was inappropriate and should be called the "Imperial Constitutional Council".

It is said that Kang Youwei once wanted to call him the "Kuomintang", but he failed.

At the venue, Kang Youwei used a large speaker to give a speech:

"The emperor is becoming more and more powerful, and his holy bow will be safe. From now on, he will no longer have to worry about my comrades. From now on, the most urgent task is to talk about constitutionalism! The establishment of a big party spread across the five continents, which is the first of its kind in the country..."

Situ Meitang asked someone around him and found out that Kang Youwei had been speaking for almost three hours.

Situ Meitang said: "Good guy, Kang Nanhai is really serious. I haven't seen him so motivated for a long time." Li Yu didn't take it seriously: "In addition to raising donations, the Royalist Association has done nothing substantial and influential in the Americas for so many years. It can no longer be compared with the revolutionaries. Propaganda is a continuous and meticulous work. To truly penetrate into the group, it can be completed with just a few speeches. Mr. Nanhai’s thinking is too simple. At least you should look at what Mr. Liang Qichao did in Tokyo, Japan. How to do it.”

Situ Meitang smiled and said: "You also made Kang Youwei make a lot of mistakes, which greatly reduced the power of the Royal Society. Not only Mr. Sun is grateful for this, but we at Hongmen are also grateful."

Li Yu also smiled and said: "I really can't stand his behavior in the Royal Society."

Li Yu was right. Kang Youwei really thought that he could respond to requests as he did when he first came to America eight years ago, and could raise tens of thousands of dollars by just showing up.I spent a lot of effort today and talked for so long, but the response was not at all as expected. It was basically just some old members waving flags and cheering.

Liang Qichao, on the other hand, got it going in full swing, even including Yuan Shikai, Yang Du and Zaifeng.

Liang Qichao knew that Yang Du was a talented person and recommended him to Kang Youwei, but Kang Youwei didn't care.

After the speech, Li Yu was about to leave, but was discovered by the sharp-eyed Kang Youwei. He shouted loudly: "Li Yu!"

Li Yu could only stop and turned around and said, "Mr. Nanhai."

Kang Youwei said angrily: "What are you doing here?"

"While walking around, I happened to find auspicious clouds in the sky, and I followed them. I didn't expect it was Kang Shengren." Li Yu said.

Kang Youwei couldn't tell whether Li Yu was teasing him, but he still asked: "Don't cause trouble, we don't offend the river."

Li Yu said: "How can I make a trip? I just arrived in New York."

Kang Youwei thought for a while and suddenly said: "If you want to join the National Constitutional Association of our country, it will definitely become the largest political party in the country in the future."

Li Yu sneered and simply said, "I have my own ambitions."

Kang Youwei said: "If you join and become attached to me, I can recommend you to be the Minister of Education in the future. No, it should be the Dean of the Academy of Sciences."

Li Yu burst into laughter, Kang Nanhai actually wanted to draw a cake for himself!
He had a similar practice during the [-] Years, and he often pointed out the situation and said that so-and-so would be given a certain official position in the future. He has not forgotten this practice now.

The key is a talkative one, only offering one scientific research position, and leaving his dream job of Minister of Education to his own people.

Li Yu suppressed a smile and said, "Thank you very much, Mr. Nanhai, for your kindness. I accept it with my heart."

"You don't agree?" Kang Youwei heard what Li Yu meant and continued to ask, "Could it be that you also love the revolutionaries?"

Li Yu said: "What I think is my freedom. Mr. Nanhai, take your leave."

Kang Youwei's Imperial Constitutional Council was not successful, not only because of the growth of the revolutionary forces; but also because he had been away from America in the past two years, focusing on enjoying himself in Europe. The Chinese companies and other industries were not managed well and had already been riddled with internal conflicts. Their power was greatly weakened and was not as powerful as it was during the Royalist Society.

Qiu Jin was very excited after seeing Kang Youwei, but in her opinion, the Royalist Society was no longer attractive.

Li Yu returned to the laboratory on Fifth Avenue and prepared to submit another automobile patent. It was more convenient to engage in industry in the United States.

The first patent, which Li Yu had already researched, was about four-wheel brakes for cars.

Most of the current cars have front wheel disc brakes, which are very primitive.

In later generations of cars, all four wheels braked together to ensure safety.

Because when applying the brakes, if the front or rear wheels brake first, the car is likely to deviate, and in severe cases, it may lose control of the direction. (The handbrake brakes the rear wheel, so if you are drifting, you will pull the handbrake to complete the corner)

Historically, it would not be until three or four years later that the French icon first developed four-wheel braking.

Since many car companies have adopted Li Yu's patents, including the four-wheel drive system on the chassis, it is relatively easy to adapt Li Yu's patents.

Li Yu's design concept is so advanced that there is no doubt that it will definitely become mainstream as soon as it is launched.

In addition, Li Yu designed an engine water cooling system.

The current automotive water cooling system is also relatively early and uses the physical properties of water to achieve engine cooling and cooling.

However, this early cooling system could not actively control and adjust the water temperature and water flow, and it took a long time to warm up the car to start. At the same time, when the weather was cold, the engine would be in a low-temperature and poor working condition for a long time.

At present, the main sales areas of automobiles are inevitably exposed to long winters, so it is a relatively serious problem.

In addition, the poor working condition of the engine will aggravate the incomplete combustion of gasoline, leading to increased pollution.

The thermal efficiency of today's engines is inherently low, and incomplete combustion will lead to increased fuel consumption and reduced vehicle cruising range.

In short, there are many adverse effects.

There are not many auto parts nowadays, the space in the engine compartment is relatively easy to arrange, and cars have been equipped with water tanks for a long time.

Therefore, Li Yu’s cooling system will become a must.

Two automotive patent applications were approved quickly.

Taking into account factors such as the continuous expansion of business, the U.S. stock market crash, and the investment of Wall Street financial giants, Li Yu made some adjustments to his overseas companies.

Li Yu plans to separate the radio and automobile businesses into two independent subsidiaries, and then use LY Company to hold the shares.

This principle is easy to understand.

We can learn from the Samsung Group of later generations.As a giant company in South Korea, its controllers, the Lee family, actually only hold a small share, no more than 10%.

How to control the entire company with very few shares is a concern of many founders, because as the company grows, equity dilution is unavoidable.

The specific operation is very complicated, but the principle is very simple, mainly through multi-layer shareholding.

For example, Samsung Capital is 1000 billion. Logically speaking, you need to hold at least 51% before you can hold a controlling stake.

But a company can be set up above Samsung, and this company will control Samsung.Let’s call it Company A. Company A’s registered capital may only be 400 billion. It holds more than 51% of Samsung’s shares and has decision-making power.

Continue to set up Company B on Company A, Company B controls Company A, and the registered capital of Company B may only be 100 billion.

If you hold more than 51% of the shares of Company B, which is 51 billion, you are the controlling shareholder of Company B.Able to control Company A through Company B, and then control Samsung through Company A.

Anyway, after several rounds of nesting, in the end, with only a few hundred million in hand, he could control the huge Samsung Group.

Moreover, Company A can also control other companies controlled by Samsung through Company B. The result is that it uses several hundred billion to operate a market worth hundreds of billions.

You don't even need 51% of Company B's shares, you just need to ensure that you and your allies control 51% of Company B's shares.

In reality, there will be many economic, legal, accounting, policy and other factors, which are quite complicated, but it is okay to understand it this way for the time being.

(If you look at Samsung's shareholding structure chart, you will faint directly, but in the end, you can control the Samsung Group through several holding companies.)
No wonder people say that the consolidated statements in the CPA exam are a nightmare, and the exam is even a very simple one.

Li Yu must cultivate a good accountant in the future, and he must be a core person.

In short, multi-level holdings have many benefits. Not only can they make a difference and reduce risks, but the key is to hide themselves behind the scenes.

If in the future he wants to infiltrate and take shares in the Mitsui Zaibatsu through the LY Group in the United States, it would be absolutely wise for Li Yu to hide himself as much as possible.

(End of this chapter)