Silver Fox of the Three Kingdoms

Chapter 13 Deduction
"According to the historical process, this year Cao Cao slaughtered Xuzhou, and Chen Gong and Zhang Miao suddenly betrayed and welcomed Lv Bu into Yanzhou.

"That is to say, Cao Cao has been in his weakest period for a long time from this year to next year. If we attack him at this time, it is very likely that Cao Cao will be wiped out."

"However, it's hard to tell. I still have too little information. I don't know how many people Lu Bu has, how many people Cao Cao has, and what their current situation is. But at least I know that Xuzhou's current situation is very bad."

Shen Chen deduced in his mind, although he felt that if he could offer advice to Tao Qian while Cao Lu was fighting in Yanzhou, and let him send someone to stab Cao Cao in the back, the situation in the world might be very different.

But he didn't know the current number of soldiers and horses of Cao Cao and Lu Bu, the situation of food and grass, and the current situation, so it was not easy to directly deduce it.But Xuzhou is too weak, and Tao Qian has no strength.

So in case Lu Bu's strength is not strong, if Tao Qian joins them, he will be easily eliminated by Cao Cao.

At that time, Yuan Shu, who was going to attack Xuzhou this year, will easily occupy Xuzhou. At that time, history will only develop in a worse direction.

Thinking of this, Shen Chen decided to analyze and deduce the strength of Cao Cao and Lu Bu.

He remembered that when he was in Xuzhou before, Tao Qian's army strength reached 5 to 30 at the most, and Cao Cao's army strength would never be weaker than Tao Qian, because he captured a million people of Qingzhou Yellow Turbans and won 5 Qingzhou Yellow Turbans. For the soldiers, select the elite and at least [-] to [-] people.

In the Battle of Pengcheng, Cao Cao and Tao Qian's troops were about the same. As a result, Tao Qian was almost wiped out in a big battle.Cao Cao should also have lost part of it, so it is more reasonable to estimate Cao Cao's total force at about [-] at present.

What about Lu Bu?
Lu Bu escaped from Yuan Shao, and there must be only the trapped camp and some cavalry entourage around him. There should be only a few thousand people at full strength, or maybe not that many.

His main force should come from Zhang Miao, and Zhang Miao is the prefect of Chenliu, and it is impossible for him to have more troops than Cao Cao, the Yanzhou shepherd.

Even if the calculation is too much, with a maximum of 2 people, then Lu Bu's strength is probably only half of Cao Cao's.

I remember that in history, Cao Cao was defeated first and then won. When he was in Puyang, he was defeated by Lu Bu first. Then the two sides stalemate for a hundred days, and finally retreated due to severe drought.

Lu Bu retreated to Shanyang and Jiyin, while Cao Cao retreated to Dongping. It was during this period that Cao Cao was so despondent that he almost sent his family to Yuan Shaona as hostages.

But what made Cao Cao fall down was not the lack of soldiers and horses, but the lack of food and grass.

It was Cao Cao who asked Yuan Shao to give him some food, and Yuan Shao threatened Cao Cao to let him move his family to Yecheng. Finally, Cheng Yu dissuaded him, and offered to use human preserved food as army rations to help Cao Cao survive the catastrophe.

This also shows from the side that Cao Cao has more troops than Lu Bu.

Because Cao Cao was attacked from the rear when he was conquering Tao Qian in the east, in order to deal with Tao Qian, he must have prepared more food and grass. As a result, Cao Cao ran out of food first during the stalemate with Lu Bu, which means that Cao Cao's soldiers consumed more food quickly.

And Lu Bu must have brought no food when he escaped from Yuan Shaona, and the food and grass for Cao Cao's eastward expedition to Tao Qian's Yanzhou must have been concentrated in his hands.As a result, Lv Bu was able to hold a stalemate with Cao Cao for a hundred days after arriving in Yanzhou, which is enough to prove that Lv Bu's troops are indeed much smaller than Cao Cao's.

If calculated in this way, then Cao Cao's army strength is about 4, and food is relatively scarce.

Lu Bu's army strength lasted 1, combined with the fact that he was able to defeat Liu Bei, who had a strength of about [-], the total strength was probably between [-] and [-].

This kind of force is difficult to compete with Cao Cao. He won the battle with Cao Cao in Puyang in the early days, because Cao Cao was so anxious because of the loss of Yanzhou at that time.

Later, when Cao Cao slowed down, he slowly figured it out, and finally took Yanzhou back, which also proved this point.

So if Liu Bei leads Xuzhou, can he attack Cao Cao at this time, and then take advantage of the situation to seize Yanzhou, come to the west to welcome the emperor, and take the emperor to order the princes?
The answer is impossible.

Let's not say that Liu Bei's strength is incomparable with Cao Cao's, just say that Lu Bu's military strength is stronger than him, Liu Bei is going to attack Cao Cao now, and he will die.

Still the same sentence, the premise of the snipe and clam fighting for the fisherman's profit is that the second child fights with the third child, and the eldest child wins.

If the boss and the second child fight, the third child must die.

What's more, there is a stronger person than the boss and the second staring at the third child next to him, so it is even more impossible to profit from it.

Maybe Liu Bei's army left Xuzhou and went north to attack Dongping, and Yuan Shu occupied Xuzhou.

So no matter how you think about it, Liu Bei is actually facing a dead end in Xuzhou.

That is, he didn't have the strength to go to Yanzhou to make troubles. When the battle between Cao Cao and Lu Bu was over, Lu Bu was driven out of Yanzhou like a bereaved dog, and history would still repeat itself.

"Liu Bei's strength is still too weak, and it is impossible to do anything from it."

"If this is the plot in the novel, maybe relying on the illusions of the novelists to fabricate it can turn things around for Liu Bei."

"But it's reality. The reality is that the enemy is very strong. It is impossible for Liu Bei to get involved in the battle in Henan. Even if the weak defeat the strong, it is impossible to defeat three strong enemies at the same time!"

"So the current situation is no longer something I can change. When there is nothing I can do, I can only follow history. It is best to observe from the sidelines first and not intervene."

After Shen Chen deduced all the possibilities, he found that the probability of Liu Bei being able to succeed in Henan was infinitely close to zero, and it was almost impossible to realize.

Liu Bei's situation is too difficult.

Yuan Shu's army is more than 2, Cao Cao's army is [-] to [-], and even Lu Bu has [-] to [-].

And even if Liu Bei took over Tao Qian's power, he would have at most [-] people. Among them, Cao Bao and Xu Dan were still two hidden dangers, and his direct line troops did not exceed [-]. With this small number of people, how can he fight against the princes of Henan?
Xuzhou Mu sounds good, but actually there is only one title left. Four of the five prefectures do not obey the command, and one of them was slaughtered by Cao Cao, leaving almost no room for development.

This shows that Xuzhou has become a dilemma, and it is useless for anyone to come.

After analyzing this point, there is only one way before Shen Chen - that is to leave the quagmire of war in Henan and wait for future changes.

It also happens that 12 years later, he will grow up and reach the crown, and Liu Bei will also usher in the Battle of Chibi at that time.

If we can plan well in the future, things may have other turning points.

Having figured this out, Shen Chen got up from the bed.

At this time, it was evening, the sun was gradually setting, and the afterglow of the sunset still illuminated the earth, bringing people the last ray of dawn.

Before it was dark, he went to the kitchen and poured a bowl of water to drink, planning to swallow the food and cakes with the water, and get up early tomorrow to go to the clan to plan the relocation.

As a result, there was a sudden knock on the door at this time, and when they went to the front yard, they saw that it was Aunt Seven, the neighbor next door, calling them.

"His third uncle, his third uncle?"

Aunt Seven yelled.

Shen Chen opened the door and said, "Seventh Aunt, what's wrong?"

Seeing Shen Chen, Seventh Aunt immediately smiled and said, "It's Ah Chen, where are your parents?"

"Aweng and my mother have all gone to the ancestral hall. The clan elders over there are selecting clan members to protect the clansmen moving south. Let's go and have a look."

Shen Chen replied.

Seventh Aunt said: "Then I will ask A Tao to call them back later. Our family killed two chickens and come over to eat together."

Killed two chickens?

Shen Chen was very surprised: "Seventh Aunt, why did you suddenly kill the chicken?"

Seventh Aunt's family and Shen Chen's family are relatively close relatives. Shen Chen's father, Shen Zhen, and Seventh Uncle Shen Min are cousins. Among this generation, Shen Zhen ranks third, and Shen Min ranks seventh. The relationship between the two families is usually good. Not bad, and they communicate frequently.

But no matter how good the relationship is, it is rare to kill chickens to entertain neighbors. After all, chickens are already considered very important supplies in ordinary civilian homes, second only to cattle and sheep. They are generally used to lay eggs and will not be slaughtered.

For example, Shen Chen's family only has two chickens. Although it is not as many as Shen Min's family of more than 30 chickens, they are usually taken care of as treasures.

Seventh Aunt forced a smile and said: "You also know the world, don't you want to move to the south soon? There are too many chickens and it's not easy to take them with you. Your Seventh Uncle wants to sell all the chickens at home, just keep two eggs to lay. Change some food, but whether it is in the clan or other villages, the price is very low, now food is more expensive than chickens, it is better to kill yourself to eat."

"Oh, so it turns out that it is really difficult to survive in this world."

Shen Chen understood the reason, sighed, and comforted him: "But Seventh Aunt, please rest assured. Although moving to the south is dependent on others, it is better than losing your life. Everything will pass, and the days to come will be long."

"I hope so."

Seventh Aunt's face was not very good-looking, and she waved to Shen Chen: "The chicken will be cooked soon, Ah Chenyi will come over later, I will call A Tao to bring your parents back."

"it is good."

Shen Chen nodded and watched Aunt Seven leave.

Now the entire clan is basically disposing of property, selling what they can't carry at a low price, and collecting property to buy mules, vehicles, grain, weapons, and other living materials.

The power of an individual appears so small and humble in front of the entire era.If it weren't for Shen Chen, the Deng and Shen Er clans might not have been slaughtered.

But even if they escaped the massacre, it would still be difficult to rely on personal strength to migrate thousands of kilometers from Shancheng, Linyi, Shandong, to Xiangyang, Hubei, in this era of underdeveloped transportation.

Not to mention that there is not enough food reserves, most of them will starve to death along the way.Just to say that all kinds of bandits and soldiers along the way are like combs, and there is even the danger of being turned into a man if you are alone.

Because this is a worse world, not only Cao Cao is eating people, but many deserters from the princes, bandits who rob houses, and helpless refugees are all killing and eating meat.

It's just that these things are not recorded in the official history books, but even the powerful princes have to do this, let alone the most difficult civilians at the bottom.

Therefore, if Shen Chen wanted to leave Xuzhou, he had to rely on the power of the clan and unite together to realize his idea.

(End of this chapter)