I can get rich by brushing my emotions

07:30 in the evening.

In the afterglow of the setting sun, the clouds are dancing.

Yuan Ze, who was accompanying Su Yinuo, Ou Lin, and Tang Guo for dinner, suddenly received a call from his secretary, Qiao Shuang.

"Mr. Yuan, the exchange rate of GBP/USD has plummeted!" Qiao Shuang's eager and excited voice came from the receiver as soon as the call was made.

"Oh? Did it plummet?" Yuan Ze said with a smile: "Then it seems that the situation is the same as I expected before. Is it caused by the new British Prime Minister?"

"Yeah!" Qiao Shuang hurriedly responded, and then said with great admiration: "Yes, you are right. Just half an hour ago, the new British Prime Minister announced the latest reduction policy. As soon as this policy was introduced , The Internet has exploded, and many people are cursing.

The exchange rate of GBP/USD has been diving all the way from 1.12, and now it is about to fall below the 1.10 mark..."

"Okay, I see."

"Then Mr. Yuan, what should we do now, take the opportunity to close the position, or?"

"Don't be in a hurry, the fun is just beginning. What kind of positions are you closing? Now that the British policy has been introduced, you don't have to worry about it. Go back and have a good rest. We will talk about closing positions until next Monday."

……

Just as Yuan Ze and Qiao Shuang were talking on the phone.

On the other side, Ge Chengye, who is far away in Shenzhen City, is still in his ant hot money group, chatting with a few small hot money.

But at this moment, the old pig with a lot of money suddenly posted a screenshot in the group, and said: "Fuck, teachers, look, the British government is convulsed!!!"

All the hot money looked at it, but some people didn't understand it.

"Uh, isn't it just that the British government has promulgated a tax cut policy? Isn't that very good?"

"I took a look. The tax reduction policy introduced by the Yingzheng government this time should be regarded as positive. It will help revive the economic vitality of families and enterprises, right?"

"So, old pig, what do you mean by saying that the British government has convulsions?"

Wanshou Laozhu said: "Teachers, don't you look at the foreign exchange situation? Go and see for yourself how the pound's foreign exchange has fallen. As soon as this tax reduction policy was promulgated, it immediately began to plunge. Is it okay? Bad, let’s see the market vote.”

Some hot money who understands this said:
"The old pig is right, the new British government is indeed a bit convulsive.

Although I took a look at this tax reduction policy, there is no major problem in terms of policy alone.

But combined with the actual situation, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet recently in order to curb inflation, but the British government just wants to stimulate the economy...

It is really unimaginable that the same country has completely opposite monetary policy and fiscal policy in the same period of time. "

Some hot money went on to analyze:
"Yes, tax cuts mean a reduction in fiscal revenue, which is relatively short of money. If we continue to do this, it is expected that the government's debts will definitely increase."

"I understand. Once the debt increases, you have to start releasing water in order to pay off the debt, don't you?"

"That's right, as soon as the water is released, the domestic currency will start to depreciate, not to mention that the United States is still raising interest rates."

"Looking at it this way, the new government of the United Kingdom is indeed a bit convulsive. What are you thinking? Is it purely brainwashed, or is there some other conspiracy?"

"Who knows what they think, anyway, it seems that they can already open a short position on the GBP/USD currency. If you are lucky, you should be able to take advantage of this opportunity."

Wanshou Laozhu: "I have already opened the deposit. I have a principal of 1000 million, a leverage of 30 times, and a short position of 1.102. Let's go together, this opportunity is good!"

Lost everything: "Uh, old pig, your business is a bit wide, are you still doing foreign exchange?"

Wanshou Laozhu: "The main position is still stocks, foreign exchange and futures are occasionally traded, let's see the market."

"Hey, I don't have a foreign exchange account, so I can't rush."

"Forget it, I don't understand foreign exchange, so I don't want to participate."

"There is no more idle funds, and all the positions have been invested in A shares, so I can't keep up."

"..."

As the group leader, Ge Chengye saw the hot money in the group discussing the foreign exchange market, so he didn't participate.

But his whole body was excited.

"The GBP/USD exchange rate has plummeted! Great!"

Ge Chengye opened the foreign exchange software and looked at it, and immediately he was very happy, and quickly dialed Hu Xu's phone number.

"Hey, Mr. Hu, there is a big movement in the foreign exchange market, are you watching?" Ge Chengye said.

Before Hu Xu could speak, Kang Lei next to him said first: "Isn't that nonsense? After investing so much money, Lao Hu and I basically let people watch the foreign exchange market 24 hours a day. Why, the news from the UK, Mr. Ge, you also know?"

Ge Chengye said: "Yeah, I just found out. Looking at the situation, it seems that the new government of the United Kingdom has introduced a package of new tax reduction policies, but the financial market does not buy it. The foreign exchange data on my side shows that at the moment The GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen below 1.1."

Kang Lei laughed loudly: "Hahaha, the more it falls, the more we earn, cool!"

Hu Xu took the conversation and said, "Tsk tsk, this is almost exactly the same as Mr. Yuan's prediction!"

Ge Chengye didn't know what they had talked about before, so he asked in surprise, "What prediction is exactly the same?"

Hu Xu smiled and said: "Mr. Ge, you don't know, before we participated in shorting GBP/USD, Mr. Yuan found me and A Lei and analyzed it for us personally.

At that time, Mr. Yuan made it clear that because of the US interest rate hike, the UK was the first to suffer. In addition, the UK's domestic economy was already very bad. Therefore, after the new government came to power, it would probably introduce a package of economic stimulus plans.

But the current UK is like a patient in an emergency room. At this time, no matter what kind of stimulus is given, no matter whether it is good or bad, it will cause panic from the outside world, which will lead to the sale of the pound and the depreciation of the pound. "

Ge Chengye was surprised and said: "It's amazing, Mr. Yuan really has a vision, he is worthy of being a great god!"

In fact, although the tax cut policy promulgated by the British government this time is a bit too anxious, it is indeed a good policy to stimulate economic growth in the long run.

Because the new policy involves multiple items such as income tax, stamp duty, energy bills, alcohol tax, corporate tax, etc., including tax-free shopping for overseas tourists.

Once fully implemented, it will undoubtedly bring a shot in the arm to the recovery of the British economy.

But now that inflation in the UK is so high and prices are soaring, but they still want to stimulate economic growth, isn't that courting death?
Originally, the Bank of England had been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet in order to ease inflation and suppress prices during the year, in order to slow down economic growth.

However, the tax cut policy introduced by the British government is tantamount to sacrificing the government's fiscal revenue to stimulate the British economy, which will lead to increased deficits and rising debts.

In the end, in order to repay the debt, the Bank of England could only print a lot of money to release water. The result must be the depreciation of the pound.

Perhaps before the British government introduced this tax cut policy, the leaders were still full of confidence and felt that it would boost the confidence of the market.

But after the policy was promulgated, they probably didn't think so when they saw the situation in the foreign exchange market.

Don't think that those leaders are so clever and wise, but in fact, because they are also human, they will make mistakes in judging the situation, and even do some relatively mentally retarded things that make people feel ridiculous.

Therefore, affected by the British government's tax cut policy, the pound began to fall all the way.

The GBP/USD exchange rate, after falling below the 1.10 mark, continued to drop, and it couldn't stop.

As of the close of this Friday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fell below 1.09, closing at 1.0847, a drop of 3.61% on the day!

……

On Saturday and Sunday, the global foreign exchange market is closed.

However, the treacherous game never stopped for a moment.

No, regarding the tax reduction policy introduced by the British government, the British media on Saturday issued an article saying that this is not okay?

Anyway, I talked about a long list of tax cut policy issues.

The general meaning is: for the British economy, the Bank of England is reducing the fire, but the British government is fighting the fire. This is like a patient who has a fever and almost dies. The doctor is giving him strong medicine to cool down, but the patient’s father At that time, he jumped out and gave the patient an injection of epinephrine, and then said: Baby, do you feel refreshed?Come on, let's make a set of test papers, otherwise I won't be able to pass the Tsinghua University exam in the future, so what should I do?

This set made everyone look stupid, and even the MIT (International Monetary Fund) couldn't stand it anymore, and came out to urge the UK to re-evaluate the tax cuts.

MIT warned that a series of untargeted programs could trigger a surge in inflation, and also said that fiscal policy cannot run counter to monetary policy.

Anyway, the general meaning is that you and the fuck are about to use yourself up. At this time, don't think about how to make money, and think about how to survive.

And after MIT's speech, when the UK is now in turmoil, its closest ally, the United States, directly ignores 21, and comes to kill you while you are sick. Like a bat, it opens its bloody mouth and sucks you. of blood.

Of course, as early as a few months ago, the capitalists in the United States and Wall Street had already begun to bite towards Britain with their bloody mouth open.

The first bite was the Fed’s interest rate hike, which siphoned capital back to the United States. Although the whole world has been affected, it is undoubtedly the worst in the United Kingdom. It has caused countless capital to flee the United Kingdom and sail to the United States, causing the British bubble economy to crumble.

This second mouth, which is what Wall Street is doing now, is uniting with major rating agencies around the world to sing down the British economy.

At present, the world's three top rating agencies, Poor's, Moody's and Fitch International, have successively given extremely low ratings to the British economy on Saturday and Sunday.

This is equivalent to in the film and television industry, a movie is scored extremely low in a certain section, and the impact is self-evident.

As a result, on Sunday afternoon, the former British central bank officials came out to criticize the new British government's tax cut policy, scolded them for messing around, and openly told the public that if they want to take advantage of this stall to make money, then Go short the pound now.

……

Monday, October 9.

In the early morning, the Sydney foreign exchange market officially started trading.

As soon as the market opened, the exchange rate of the pound began to plummet. Among them, the exchange rate of the pound/dollar fell below the 1.06 mark all the way, falling to 1.0553.

Fenghuang Road, it was pitch dark outside, but Yuan Ze's office was brightly lit.

In the phone video, Kang Lei, Hu Xu, and Ge Chengye were all there.

Kang Lei excitedly said: "The exchange rate of GBP/USD has dropped to 1.055, and there is no acceptance at all. It seems that it will continue to fall. It is estimated that it is not impossible to fall below 1.05!"

Hu Xu said: "It's still the Australian game right now, the main event will be when the Asian game and European and American games start."

Ge Chengye touched his bald head, patted the table and said excitedly: "After dinner last night, I read the news that the British economy is about to collapse, and now the whole world is bearish on the British pound. , I’m afraid it will fall below the 1.0 mark.”

Just when the three of them were so excited that their faces were full of glory, Yuan Ze took a sip of the coffee offered by Qiao Shuang, and said lightly:

"Okay, Brother Kang, President Hu, and President Ge, cheer up, it's almost done, and we can gradually start closing positions."

"Ah???" The three of Kang Lei were all stunned.

Ge Chengye hurriedly said: "Uh, Mr. Yuan, the pound/dollar exchange rate is still falling, is it about to slip away? Do you want to wait a little longer?"

Yuan Zedao: "The goal we set before was to close positions and leave around 1.06, and now it is already the target range."

Kang Lei nodded and said: "According to the original plan, we can indeed start to close our positions and leave."

Hu Xu asked: "Mr. Yuan, do you think there is any risk in the future, or?"

Yuan Ze hesitated for a moment, then said slowly: "Three, extreme joy begets sorrow, extreme things must reverse. Although the battlefields of foreign exchange speculation and stock speculation are different, they are actually the same in essence, because they are both playing games with people."

"President Yuan's words are reasonable." Ge Chengye agreed.

Yuan Ze went on to say: "Don't look at the bad news from the outside world, but the sterling exchange rate has fallen like this, all based on the tax cut policy introduced by the new British government.

We can think that the Yingzheng government was stupid and not thoughtful enough when it introduced this policy, but we must not think that they will continue to be stupid and let the situation worsen after seeing the situation deteriorate.

Although the whole world is now bearish on the pound, thinking that the pound/dollar exchange rate will fall below 1.0, the problem is that once the British government corrects its mistakes in time, the Bank of England will also speak out.

At that time, there is a high probability that the GBP/USD exchange rate will stabilize or even rebound. "

When the three of Kang Lei heard this, they became thoughtful.

Yuan Ze smiled and said: "According to this logic, it can basically be concluded that once the British government intervenes in the foreign exchange market through policy means, then the periodical downward trend of GBP/USD will also come to an end.

Here, I will also make two small predictions for the reference of the three to see if it will happen in the future.

Next, in order to maintain financial stability and restore the market environment in an orderly manner, I predict that the Bank of England, the Bank of England, will announce a repurchase operation for British bonds in the near future, and it is likely that there will be no upper limit.

Secondly, the tax cut policy introduced by the new British government will probably be cancelled. "

The two predictions mentioned by Yuan Ze are all learned from the big future events on Kang Lei's head, and they are things that are about to happen.

After hearing this, the three of Kang Lei didn't say it was impossible, but they took a wait-and-see attitude.

However, after Yuan Ze's analysis, the three of them basically extinguished their desire to continue holding positions and sell them for a price.

……