Game of Thrones: Royal Game

Chapter 269 Deduction

"Yada." Ian called out the door, and called in Yada, the captain of the guards on duty, the water dancer.

The next moment, Yada entered the tent.

"Send someone to inform several legion commanders to test for drugs after receiving the supplies provided by Yunkai, and besides," Ian paused, "Forget it, that's it." Then he waved his hand to let Yada leave.

He originally wanted to order the Legion to strengthen their vigilance against Yunkai, but after thinking about it, he still didn't issue this order.

Because according to the military order he formulated, the army itself must maintain a high level of vigilance when it is in camp. Using Yunkai to test whether this military order has been strictly implemented is definitely much better than letting the Dothraki test in the future .

What's more, now that he is flying in the sky with a falcon to cover the scout team, if there is an emergency, he can deal with it in advance.

After seeing Yada off, Ian returned to Celia's side.

"continue."

"My first reaction at the time was that this was a grand banquet. They wanted to lure you into the city and murder you. Moreover, the person who planned this murder was probably not General Shaker, but Grand Marshal Yunkai himself." Celie Ya glanced at Ian and saw that he had no intention of speaking, so she continued,
"You should also have noticed what Grazdan and General Shake-Ass said at the time? The gifts of the seven female slaves that Grazdan said were given in his own name, and the abyss in the mouth of General Shake-Ass The mansion in Kai City is a gift from the 'Grand Marshal' to you.

According to the information we got before, Generalissimo Yakhaz zo Yazak of Yunkai has always had his eyes above his head. It is a strange thing that he would give you a gift, and if it is combined with the performance of the general who shakes his ass .”

"So your conclusion," Ian interrupted Celia, "is that Grand Marshal Yunkai set up a grand feast for us, hoping to bring me into the city and kill me?"

"This conclusion once made me feel ridiculous, but" Celia shook her head, "After you asked Grazdan two questions before he left, I began to suspect that I might really be right."

"The banquet was held in the pyramid of Yazan, the richest man in Yunkai, and he and the Generalissimo did not deal with each other." Ian nodded.

"That's right, if the Generalissimo of Yunkai'i has already designed a way to murder you and blame Yazan, the richest man, the Generalissimo's enthusiasm and the behavior of General Shake-Ass just now make sense.

At the same time, Grazdan's performance was also explained. When he found out that General Shake Butt wanted to invite you into the city and keep you behind, he first showed a puzzled expression, and then his face became ugly.

We can boldly guess that he also guessed the conspiracy of General Shake-Ass at that time, so he hurriedly wanted to go back to the city to warn Yazan, the richest man in Yunkai. Otherwise, just today's ordinary welcome ceremony, Grazdan, what reason does he have to rush back to report to the master? "

"Excellent reasoning," Ian clapped his hands, then changed the subject and stretched out three fingers, "I really want to say that, but there are at least three problems in this reasoning."

"what is the problem?"

"First, when General Shaker was under my scrutiny, his reaction was not only flustered and abnormal, but also terrified."

"It's normal to be afraid of a conspiracy like murder, right?" Celia didn't seem to think there was any problem with it.

"At that time, no murder plot was discovered," Ian denied Celia's point of view, "There was only my suspicion about the purpose of their invitation to the city, and this suspicion did not pose any threat.

Because I myself refused to enter the city, the murder would not have happened, and we would certainly not be able to find any evidence.Groundless suspicion without evidence can not pose any threat to a powerful general, so the general's reaction at that time was obviously excessive. "

"From this point of view, I can think of two possibilities." Ian continued, "The first is that the general's reaction at the time was fake, and he wanted to use this exaggerated reaction to show me To convey the message of 'I have a problem'. Of course, if this is the case, I still don't know his purpose for the time being.

The second possibility is that he is really flustered and terrified, but this emotion is not caused by me seeing through his murder plot, but rather."

"But?" Celia asked quickly when she saw Ian stop.

"I don't know," Ian said as a matter of course, "There is no more information here to support further reasoning." Ian marked a small question mark where he stopped writing, "Usually when I encounter this situation I will leave this place blank for the time being, and continue the deduction after collecting more information.”

"Now," Ian took out the previous piece of paper, "let's go back and start discussing the second question."

"Back in Pentos," Celia suddenly added a digression, "Did you also use this method to see through me?"

"The second question is," Ian didn't answer Celia's question, "Grazdan's eagerness to leave is why you made an overly absolute judgment without further clues."

Celia saw that Ian was unwilling to answer, and she was not stupid enough to ask. She didn't speak again, but quietly waited for Ian to continue.

"Assuming that your reasoning about Grazdan suddenly guessing that the ass-shaking generals may have such a conspiracy and rushing back to find Yazan is true, you think Grazdan left in a hurry to warn Yazan about The conspiracy of the Grand Marshal's faction But the biggest flaw in this speculation is, why didn't he warn us by the way before leaving?
Grazdan was already at odds with the generalissimo, how could he give up such a good opportunity to use us to attack the generalissimo?Even if he is not sure whether there is such a murderous conspiracy, it is good to speak out to drive a wedge between me and the Generalissimo.

But he left without saying anything, and at the same time he left, he also told me that he would come to me later.So I thought of the second possibility—maybe Grazdan himself is not sure whether Yazan is also involved in the conspiracy of the Generalissimo. "

"Yazan and the Generalissimo?"

"Yes, there are rumors that these two people are incompatible, but what is the actual truth? Pretending to be politically opposed to achieve ulterior motives or to artificially create a certain balance is a very common means. We believe that Grazdan is obviously more aware of the true relationship between them than Grazdan."

"You mean, if Grazdan thinks that Yazan and the Grand Marshal are likely to work together? Then when he discovered the conspiracy, it makes sense that he couldn't be sure whether Yazan participated or not." Celia Nod.

"Yes, and the venue of the banquet is in the pyramid of Yazan. Given the fact that the Generalissimo and Yazan are clearly at odds, it may not be so easy for the Generalissimo to arrange an assassination in the pyramid of Yazan .”

"So Grazdan chose to return to Yunkai first, and asked Yazan if he was also involved in this plan."

"That's just the second possibility."

"Is there a third one?"

"Yes, it may be that Grazdan was convinced that Yazan did not participate, but he still chose not to warn us. Because he wanted to follow the plan and foil their plot after the Generalissimo and the others managed to make a move.

In this way, I can completely irritate me, let me purge the Generalissimo and others, and secondly, I can sell me a favor. However, this possibility is not high. Based on what I know about Grazdan, he may have such a brain, but he should not This boldness. "

"Which possibility do you prefer?" Seeing Ian stop, Celia asked, "Do you think Yazan is involved?"

"In the absence of clues and evidence, we cannot be subjectively biased towards any possibility that can be deduced," Ian said with a sudden laugh, "and, what you say is as if until this point We all guessed right. We're just playing around with the possibilities."

"Of course," Celia washed her face with her hands, "it's just a deduction."

"We can only get one conclusion from the deduction here, that is, Grazdan will be more inclined to his master than us when encountering disagreements, but this is also expected, after all, he has not really learned from me. benefited."

"Then what if we continue to deduce it? Let's assume that Yazan is involved in this conspiracy.

"Then we can get a new conclusion," Ian said, "Yazan didn't regard Grazdan as a real confidant, and he didn't even tell him such an important thing."

"That's a lot of valuable information."

"It's just a potentially valuable piece of information that we may not use," Ian corrected, "Okay, let's go back to the previous branch point."

"That's it." Celia flipped through the manuscript that Ian had just listed.

"The conclusion of murder itself," Ian pulled out a card from Celia's hand, "This is also the third question in your inference I mentioned."

"Why? It's pretty obvious that there's something wrong with Yunkai'i by their reaction, isn't it?"

"Of course there is something wrong with Yunkai, but murdering me at the banquet is only one of the possibilities. The smallest possibility." Ian looked at Celia, "Murder is an action without any room for maneuver. If the Grand Marshal really wants to What is his motivation for doing this?"

"This"

"Deductive method is a method of reasoning from the general to the particular," Ian reminded. "If you can't find the answer, then we go back to the most basic logic. If a person wants to do something, it is for what?"

"To gain something by doing it," Celia returned instinctively, and then she corrected, "to gain something, or to suffer some loss by not doing it, forcing him to do it."

"So what if there are risks in doing this?"

"Then the benefits of doing it must outweigh the risks of doing it, or the risks of not doing it must outweigh the benefits of not doing it."

"Going back to the Yunkai question, what does Yunkai get if I die?"

"If you die, the bond of existence of the Guise Alliance will also be broken. That's right!" Celia suddenly said, "They may think that as long as you die, Daenerys, a little girl, will not continue to live. The courage of Slaver's Bay against the Dothraki, she will flee with her army. Then the threat of Horse King Drogo to Slaver's Bay will be lifted, and the unequal treaty they signed with Astapor will no longer need to be fulfilled."

"It's consistent with what I think, but what about the risks?"

"This..." Celia froze immediately, showing an absurd smile, "If you die in the city of Yunkai, then our army may turn Yunkai into a pile of rubble in a fit of anger. Compared with the centaur war, which seems unlikely, but at least there is hope, and most of the losses will be borne by Meereen, our threat to Yunkai is more direct and deadly.

If it was only a lieutenant general like General Shake-Ass who planned this conspiracy, then the motivation could be many things, such as money, etc. After the matter is over, he can leave Yunkai and go to other cities to enjoy himself.

But according to our previous reasoning, the Generalissimo is probably behind this conspiracy, and even Yazan, the richest man, may be involved, and these two can be regarded as the masters of Yunkai."

"For them, the risk far outweighs the benefit." Ian helped Celia conclude, "That's why I said that the possibility of this conspiracy being a murder against me is very low."

"It's just low? Can't it be ruled out?"

"Unfortunately, I can't." Ian chuckled, looked at Celia like this, and stopped talking.

His gaze made Celia's scalp tingle.

Celia had already forgotten how long she hadn't felt Ian's sense of oppression. No, she remembered that the last time she was stared at by Ian was at the mountaintop temple in Pentos.

"The benefits and risks here are all known to us," Ian clicked twice on the manuscript paper, "but is there a possibility that this risk has actually been resolved in advance?"

"Defuse the risk? How to resolve it?" Celia suddenly remembered Ian's order to Yada just now, "You mean poisoning the food provided to our army? You have already thought of this step at that time?"

"No, my mind was still in a mess at that time, I was just taking precautions." Ian shook his head, "Besides, I don't think they would rely on such unreliable tricks as poisoning in food." way to deal with my army."

"So they think they can hold Yunkai?"

"Yunkai's defenders are nothing more than a mob, and their walls are rotten." Ian denied again.

Finally, Celia's expression changed, as if she didn't understand what Ian was talking about until this moment.

"So what you're trying to say is that they knew this army wasn't going to attack Yunkai after you died. Or rather, they worked with someone who would take over your army after you died to formulate this in the first place. plan, right?"

(End of this chapter)