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Chapter 300 The Fourth Industrial Revolution

Wang Hui's actions were still very fast, and he invited Song Mingyu, the boss of Feikong Aerospace, to Future Technology the next day.

Guo Yuan was also very interested in Song Mingyu and his flying space. After Wang Hui and Song Mingyu finalized the basic cooperation matters, Guo Yuan asked Wang Hui to bring Song Mingyu to his office.

Guo Yuan has already read Song Mingyu's profile. He is 39 years old and has a Ph.D. in physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After graduation, he worked in SpaceX and participated in some Starlink launches.

Song Mingyu obviously knew something about Guo Yuan, after the two met and exchanged business ideas, Guo Yuan asked with a smile: "Mr. Song, you have worked in SpaceX and participated in the launch of Starlink.

Starlink has been promoted for so many years, and it has been losing money year after year. Do you think this project can be profitable? "

"Mr. Guo, Starlink actually has no losses. Now many people say that the rocket launch capability created by Musk obviously exceeds the existing global satellite market.

Therefore, Musk can only use Starlink satellites to fill up the remaining space of the rocket. It is to create demand to alleviate the excess, and Starlink itself does not make money, with few users and insufficient payment. I understand the argument. "

"Really? But as far as I know, Starlink currently has more than 40 users, each terminal is US$599, and the monthly rent is US$110. In this way, the annual service fee is only more than 5 million, and the terminal is less than 7 million. .

The total construction cost of Starlink will be almost 300 billion U.S. dollars, and it will take half a century to pay back.

Considering that the design life of satellites is only 5 years, and billions of dollars of satellites need to be updated every year to maintain operation, Starlink is a loss-making business, right? "Guo Yuan asked with a smile.

"Mr. Guo's data is correct, but the loss is now calculated by subtracting all space launch expenses from the operating income just started.

The initial construction will not cost that much money, and as time goes on, the operating income will increase, and the launch cost will drop significantly.

Starlink's more than 40 users may not seem like many, but the growth rate is very strong. More than half of the users are newly registered in the first half of 2022.

Counting only developed countries, there are at least several million Starlink potential users, which can contribute about US$50 billion in annual cash flow, basically covering Starlink’s renewal costs.

As far as I know, Starlink's next goal is to enter the third world and develop sinking markets.

At present, 70% of the land in the world is not covered by the Internet, and 30 billion people do not have access to the Internet.If the ground backbone network is used to cover these areas, even if the residents can pay the cost, it will take decades to fully build the infrastructure.

After the Starlink service is fully rolled out, many third-world countries will be able to access the Internet immediately. This is likely to cause poor countries to abandon their ground network planning and rely entirely on Starlink. At that time, Starlink will no longer be at a loss.

At the same time, Starlink is also bound to Tesla to a certain extent. In short, Starlink's subsequent development is unlikely to lose money. "

Guo Yuan's question just now was a simple test, and Song Mingyu's answer was more than 01% similar to the analysis given by 80, which shows that this person is still very capable.

Then we can continue talking.

"President Song, I heard that your company is working on liquid rockets?"

Song Mingyu nodded.

"Why do you directly engage in liquid rockets?"

"Guo Zong's aerospace industry is characterized by high costs and rapid industrial upgrading.

The ideal state should be that the models in active service should be standardized as much as possible and engaged in assembly line production; while the models under development should be boldly tried and explore new technologies.

At this time, the research on solid rockets is just to cheat investment, and I will not do such a thing. " Song Mingyu replied without hesitation.

"Then according to Mr. Song, how should domestic recyclable rockets develop?"

"I can't say much about how the higher-ups operate, but we private enterprises, I think we should take a simple and refined path."

"Tell me in detail."

"I think our country's rocket models are too complicated. China has 11 medium-sized rocket models in active service, while there are only 6 types of rice and Russia combined.

With so many types of rockets, Huaxia's rockets can only be produced semi-manually, and so many newly developed models have not eliminated the old products, which is equivalent to further dispersing space resources and slowing down the growth rate of the total launch capacity.

So my company will only conduct in-depth research on one or two rocket models. "

"Then why is Mr. Song so optimistic about aerospace?" Guo Yuan continued to ask.

"Mr. Guo, what do you think has been the engine of the world economy over the past 20 years?" Song Mingyu asked rhetorically.

"It must be the oil industry and IT industry!" Guo Yuan replied without hesitation.

This answer is almost universally accepted. Petroleum is the most important energy source in modern society, and mastering energy is the overlord of the world.

The IT industry is the core technology that has changed the human living environment.

Countries such as China, the United States, and Southern China have mastered the core nodes of the IT industry, so their economies continue to grow.

In the relatively marginalized island countries and Europe in the IT industry, although there are still developed industries, their economic status has declined significantly.

These are all obvious things.

"Mr. Guo, aside from the oil industry, just talk about the IT industry. Do you feel that the growth of the IT industry is starting to slow down?" Song Mingyu continued to ask.

Guo Yuan nodded. It is true that the IT industry has not been as good as the previous two years. This is also an objective fact.

"The growth of the IT industry is stagnant, and there will inevitably be new industries to replace it. In my opinion, the new generation of aerospace technology has begun to stimulate other industries and has the potential to become an economic engine.

Judging from some recent situations, new aerospace technologies not only affect the civilian economy, but also affect the military field.

The island countries of Europe depend on the United States in this regard, and they don't need to care about it. We are completely different from them and must be taken seriously. "

After listening to Song Mingyu's words, Guo Yuan fell into deep thought.

The first industrial revolution used coal power and millimeter-level processing precision, and the representative equipment was steam trains.

The second industrial revolution uses fuel power, electricity and micron-level machining precision, and the representative equipment is jet aircraft.

The third industrial revolution uses new energy and nano-level processing precision, and the representative achievements are wind, light, nuclear power equipment and chips.

Could aerospace engineering be the fourth industrial revolution?
Guo Yuan is not sure.

And Song Mingyu obviously firmly believes that the aerospace industry will become the fourth industrial revolution.

Song Mingyu’s work experience at SpaceX allowed him to see SpaceX’s unprecedented aerospace capacity, which provides unprecedented orbital data transmission, and is very likely to accelerate the fourth industrial revolution represented by the intelligent Internet of Things through cheap and heavy rockets. Three and a half generations of industrial revolution.

It was precisely after Song Mingyu understood this that he returned to China and started his own recyclable rocket launch company.

However, Song Mingyu also knows that many people are not optimistic about the space industrial revolution. The main reason is that space is too far away, and going to space is too expensive, which offsets the advantages of orbital equipment.

But the thousands of Starlink satellites launched by Musk are only a few hundred kilometers away from the ground, which is closer than most towns to nearby second-tier cities.

Moreover, there are many obstacles to be bypassed from towns to big cities, and data can be transmitted in a straight line between satellites and the ground.

Decades ago, Chinese people seldom flew by plane. The biggest obstacle was not the distance from the airport but the ticket price.

Now most young people have to frequently take trains to big cities, but they will not buy space technology services directly, the reason is also the price.

In recent years, Musk has manufactured cheap satellites and sent satellites to the sky with cheap means of transportation. Space technology will inevitably penetrate into daily life quickly.

Traditional disposable rockets are launched into low-Earth orbit, and the transportation cost per kilogram of payload exceeds US$1. The cheapest Long March 3B and Angara rockets cost more than US$5000 per kilogram.

And even if the budget is enough, the total capacity is very limited.

Before Musk, the strongest human space launch cycle appeared in the 80s.

The highest launch record was set by SL in 1982. It launched 106 times a year, 97 of which were completely successful, and 2 were partially successful. The launch vehicles of SL were mainly small-capacity rockets such as Soyuz U and Cosmos 3M, and a total of 400 tons were launched. Even if the material enters the outer space, even if the ultimate carrying capacity of these 99 times is used, it will only be 490 tons.

SpaceX's cheap recyclable rocket has only developed the first stable model, and the Falcon 9 has just been able to be reused a dozen times, reducing the launch cost per kilogram to $2700.

In 2021, Falcon 9 has been launched 32 times, with a success rate of 100%. The limit delivery capacity of low-Earth orbit has reached 730 tons, which is half higher than the limit delivery capacity of SL.

Moreover, the rockets in the SL period are semi-manual precision equipment. Musk’s rockets are all cheap products that can be mass-produced. The technology is stable and can be launched at high frequencies. Last year, it was able to launch three times within 36 hours. 1000 tons of materials went up.

The ability to mobilize extreme spaceflight decades ago has been completely crushed by private companies in the 21st century.

The narration fed back Song Mingyu's thoughts to Guo Yuan, and Guo Yuan touched his chin after listening. Song Mingyu's thoughts were deeper than he thought.

Besides what Song Mingyu had considered, there was another issue that needed attention.

That is, the utilization rate of the low orbit close to the Karman line is low. According to the rules of the international community, it is basically first-served.

Now SpaceX has an annual launch capacity of thousands of tons, and can afford the cost of constantly replacing satellites in low-Earth orbit.

If we don't catch up in technology and development direction as soon as possible, we will watch the organization with cheap space capabilities monopolize this resource.

And as far as Guo Yuan knows, SpaceX's technology is still developing. Using Falcon 9 to surpass the Cold War level is only the first step of Musk's space program.

Although the SpaceX starship failed to launch, one failure does not mean repeated failures.

If they succeed, they will completely subvert the basic logic of the aerospace industry.

The launch cost per kilogram of the starship rocket can be reduced to less than 200 US dollars, only a few tenths of the traditional launch cost. It is expected to stimulate the demand for space launches around the world just as railways replace horse-drawn carriages to drive commerce along the way.

The limit delivery capacity of the starship in low-Earth orbit is expected to reach 200 tons. According to SpaceX’s current launch density, the materials sent to low-Earth orbit can approach 70 tons per year, which can be approximated as one gram per person for 10 billion people on earth. , A city of 100 people can launch a [-]-kilogram dedicated satellite for itself every year.

Inexpensive and popular satellites will first change the way humans disseminate information.

The satellite is at a high altitude outside the atmosphere, and there are no obstacles between it and the ground equipment, so the coverage area is large; the satellite is surrounded by a vacuum environment, so the satellites exchange data without atmospheric interference.

Since humans have space launch capabilities, the most important application of countries is communication satellites.

In the past, it was not easy to launch a satellite, and it took a long time to recover the cost. Therefore, the orbit of the satellite should be raised to keep the satellite away from dissipated atmospheric molecules, reduce operational resistance, and extend the service life as much as possible.

It is best to be able to put the satellite in a synchronous orbit, which is stationary relative to the ground and can continuously transmit signals.

Therefore, satellites at that time were often thousands or even tens of thousands of kilometers away from ground users.

In order to ensure the reliability of long-distance transmission of information, the communication frequency at that time was relatively low, which reduced the efficiency of information transmission.

Now that Moore's Law is gradually coming to an end, the improvement of integrated circuit capabilities is limited. To further develop orbital communications, only low-orbit satellites can be developed.

However, low-orbit satellites have to bear the resistance of the dissipated atmosphere in the outermost layer, and they will fall every few years. If countries rely on their current space launch capabilities to supplement, they can only build dozens or hundreds of small and medium-sized communication constellations at most. There are fewer combat warships than a big country, and it is impossible to directly connect with ordinary users.

Musk's first-generation Starlink satellites can be manufactured on an assembly line, with a single cost of only 50 US dollars and an annual output of 4000, which is similar to the number of civil aviation airliners owned by China, directly turning communication satellites into mass products.

In the next few years, once the starship experiment is successful and the Starlink satellites are put into use, the number and quality of communication satellites will further increase.

The situation at that time may not be optimistic.

At this time, Guo Yuan suddenly understood why Director Liu paid so much attention to his posture balance algorithm, and even let him, an "outsider", enter the base with such a high degree of secrecy.

It seems that the higher-ups are also aware of the importance of the future aerospace industry, so we must use all available resources to make breakthroughs in related technologies.

Of course, it's not enough for Guo Yuan to work hard from above. The people should also work hard. At least there should be a few more people like Song Mingyu who are dedicated to China's aerospace industry.

A few more companies like Aerospace, and a few less companies like ZK Aerospace that fool people with aerospace fuzz and cheat funds.

With Guo Yuan, the boss, intervening, the two parties signed a contract that afternoon, and Future Technology officially took a stake in Feikong Aerospace, and the 2 million funds will be transferred to Feikong Aerospace's account in batches within a week.

At the same time, Xun Haoran has also taken the technical team of Future Technology to Bingzhou.

This technical team has a total of 30 people. Xun Haoran is the team leader and Yuan Dongqing is the deputy team leader. The follow-up involves consciousness uploading. Zhao Liyi feels that Yuan Dongqing's research in this area is more in-depth than his, so it would be more appropriate for Yuan Dongqing to go. But that's all.

(End of this chapter)