The Millennium Semiconductor Survival Guide.

Chapter 154 Peak dialogue and escape from death
"I believe that the recent events at Nasdaq have had a certain impact on everyone, and at the same time, public opinion on the Internet has never been more intense.

We hope that this dialogue can give some confidence and some thinking to the Internet practitioners who are present and have obtained relevant information through media reports and spontaneous publicity.

Except for me, everyone here is in charge of Internet companies with a market value of 5000 billion U.S. dollars, and Microsoft’s market value has exceeded [-] billion U.S. dollars. I believe their thinking about the Internet will be very valuable.

Gates, do you think the Internet is a bubble? "

Bill Gates looked cautious in a beige jacket over a blue shirt, looking like he was pulling himself together: "I think there's a certain bubble.

The main reason is that some companies inflate their market value by falsifying their financial reports. This behavior is a kind of deception, but the consequences require all Internet companies to pay for them.

This is one of the most important reasons for the Nasdaq crisis. In addition, there is a certain degree of overdraft in the current market value.

At the same time, superimposing the Fed's interest rate hikes can easily form a reverse cycle. "

After Bill Gates finished speaking, Zhou Xin took over the conversation: "It seems that Bill is not very optimistic about the status quo of Internet companies. How about you, Jerry?"

Yang Zhiyuan is also a little gloomy. Under the strong challenge of Quora, Yahoo is far from being as good as it has been in history. At its peak, the market value will exceed [-] billion US dollars.

Time Warner, which was acquired by Quora, was left far behind. This made Yang Zhiyuan, who was the first to realize Zhou Xin's value, very dissatisfied.

When they resumed the game later, they believed that since Zhou Xin would sell Quora, when Riot Games was just becoming famous in 98, as long as the chips offered were high enough, Zhou Xin was likely to sell Riot and work for Yahoo.

Yang Zhiyuan held the microphone and looked at the ground, and said in Mandarin with a curved accent: "I also think that there is a bubble now.

The root cause of this bubble is that the development of Internet companies cannot keep up with investors' expectations.

Quora is the only company that has explored a stable profit model, and has a large amount of profit and a high growth trend.

After other Internet companies raised a large amount of funds from the capital market, they did not find a stable profit model. Yahoo's current profit model is only advertising.

After the success of Quora, we also tried to launch a Yahoo subscription magazine, but compared with Quora Golden Choice, our number of subscribers, average monthly income on this project, repurchase rate, etc. are far behind Quora .

The more we research inside Yahoo, the more we realize that Quora is an amazing product that fully embodies the spirit of openness, collaboration, speed and sharing of the Internet. The only thing that does not conform to the spirit of the Internet is that its user mechanism is not equal.

The Yahoo version of the online subscription magazine requires dedicated editors and writers. Even if their content has a user scoring mechanism, it is still difficult to guarantee that the content is liked by users.We also want to adopt the mechanism of Quora, and the quality of answers in Yahoo's Q&A section cannot meet the requirements of Internet magazines.

Many traditional print media, such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, are exploring quora-like models, and their online paid magazine subscriptions have also not achieved good results.

Therefore, I think the Internet bubble exists. If the real value of Internet companies wants to match the current price, more Quora must appear and more profit models must be found. "

Jerry Yang talked a lot. When he mentioned the spirit of the Internet and the openness and sharing inside, Bill Gates looked unnatural.

Because Microsoft has long faced the Federal Trade Commission's investigation into Microsoft's abuse of its monopoly position in the PC operating system market.

There has been a stalemate in this field before. Since last year, the district court has formally prosecuted Microsoft, and last month, the court announced the findings, arguing that Microsoft's dominant position in the X86-based personal computer operating system market constitutes a substantial monopoly.

Monopoly and openness are natural opposites.

Another Gerald Wright was also upset. Quora was already a Time Warner product. Jerry Yang had said everything he wanted to say. What would he say when it was his turn?
"Jerry, what about you?" Zhou Xin turned to Gerald.

The audience in the audience thought it was very interesting. Of the four famous entrepreneurs on the stage, two spoke Chinese and two spoke English.

At the same time, the translation is intertwined, making the whole scene very funny.

Zhou Xin also felt this abnormality, and the idea of ​​checking his accent flashed in his mind.

It is not guaranteed that this video will be pulled out and cut into a ghost animal video in the future. He does not want his material to become a ghost animal area material.

When Zhou Xin's thoughts drifted far away, Gerrard smiled and said: "This is the issue that people are most concerned about now, and it is also what is happening now.

The Nasdaq index fell by more than [-]%. From commentators in the financial field to economists looking forward to a sharp drop in the market value of Internet companies, as well as short-selling investors on Wall Street, their voices to some extent formed a kind of consensus.

That is, it is a bubble now. In my opinion, is there a bubble in the current Nasdaq Internet companies?

I think it exists, but whether the bubble is as big as this consensus thinks, I don't think it will be.

Internet companies include companies that pretend to make large profits by falsifying financial data, and companies that rely on countless users to achieve large profits.

The drop in the Nasdaq Index this time is an opportunity, and it is an excellent opportunity for the market to distinguish truly valuable Internet companies from worthless Internet companies.

When Jerry talked about Quora just now, he was full of envy for Quora's business model and achievements.

Whether it's Yahoo or Microsoft's MSN, or the traditional print media are trying to learn the payment model of quora gold selection.

I am very grateful to Newman for laying a good foundation for Quora and laying down the business model that Quora is now Quora.

Newman is definitely the best talent in the product field, a magician who can read people's hearts.

Similarly, the number of paying users of Quora can maintain a rapid growth trend based on the huge number of people when Newman was in charge. This is inseparable from the use of Time Warner's channels to promote Quora after Time Warner took over.

The parallel way of online and offline media is an important reason why Quora can still maintain a rapid growth trend.

Therefore, I think that the market value of Internet companies on Nasdaq has fallen sharply, which is an excellent opportunity for companies in traditional industries to merge with Internet companies. "

This is indeed Gerald Wright's way of thinking. AOL originally acquired Time Warner. After the Nasdaq index fell sharply, Time Warner's acquisition of AOL in turn was absolutely impossible.

Zhou Xin finally said: "Everyone stands on his own point of view and has made an analysis of the current slump of the Nass Index. Everyone believes that there is a bubble in the current market value of Internet companies.

I also hold this view, and I can conclude that this round of decline is only the beginning, and it is far from the end.

Even the Nasdaq fell 20.00%, 30.00% is not the end.

According to my observations in Silicon Valley, a large number of Internet companies have not yet achieved profitability, and even without much revenue, they can land on the NASDAQ exchange and raise a large amount of funds just by concept.

After raising funds, they don't think about how to run the company and use the company's main business to find a profit model, but invest huge sums of money in advertising and marketing.

This is clearly unsustainable. "

It is precisely because these Internet companies advertise on a large scale that Yahoo can achieve profitability.

"MicroStrategy's financial fraud incident is the fuse of the Nasdaq index drop, and with MicroStrategy's lessons learned, other Internet companies are unlikely to engage in financial fraud again.

When the financial reports of Internet companies are announced in batches around March next year, the fact of huge losses will not be concealed.

After the long-standing lie that there are users and profits is exposed, the Nasdaq index will usher in a sharper decline. "

The four bigwigs on the stage all gave unanimous conclusions, and Zhou Xin even gave a complete logical reasoning.

This made the hearts of Internet practitioners in Huaguo under the stage sink. Everyone still had the illusion of phased adjustments, thinking that the 21st century will come, Internet companies will recover, and they will still be able to get venture capital from international capital.

Now it seems that this is not a phased adjustment, this will be a long winter.

"Fortunately, we have just received $500 million in financing from Goldman Sachs. If we change to now, even if you join us, it will be difficult for us to obtain this financing." Jack Ma whispered to Cai Chongxin in the audience.

"It seems that this will be a long winter, and the financing of 500 million US dollars must be spent wisely." Jack Ma's expression was slightly grim.

Cai Chongxin replied to him: "Yes, that's why I was so anxious when negotiating with Goldman Sachs, I would rather retreat and get the money first.

Based on the information I got from the third-quarter financial report and the communication with friends on Wall Street, the combination of the two shows that the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble is inevitable, but I don’t know when it will be burst.

Now it seems that the Huaguo Internet Conference will be the key, and Newman's remarks will definitely be reported by the American media.

The investment banks on Wall Street that should retreat have almost retreated, and it is time to harvest retail investors and small and medium-sized investment institutions. "

Jack Ma asked: "When do you think this round of decline will end?"

Cai Chongxin replied: "Based on my understanding of Wall Street, it will end around March. Before that, it will fall through the psychological bottom line of every lucky investor, and then in March when the annual report of the past year is released intensively. Finish the last drop."

Jack Ma and Cai Chongxin rejoiced that Ali escaped from death and grabbed the last parachute before the plane landed. The other horse did not have such good luck.

　The highest income tax is 45%, and Zhou Xin pays 37%. There are many ways to avoid taxes, but Zhou Xin did not take them, because he does not trust those accounting firms, and he cannot make mistakes. , and even the accounting firm may deliberately give Zhou Xin a plan with hidden loopholes.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)