Daming: Old Zhu, we agreed not to rush!

Chapter 150 The Usefulness of Game Theory
"But what's the use of it?"

Zhu Xi scratched his head and said, "Don't people be destroyed by heaven and earth for themselves? It's quite normal to figure this out."

As if to cover up the embarrassment just now, Zhu Xi took the initiative to speak.

Su Jing looked at Zhu Xi and said, "Let's not care about whether it's useful or not. In fact, this is a psychological game in the final analysis. As long as you see the facts clearly, you can make the final choice."

"Now, I'll change this question up a bit. If this interrogation becomes ten rounds, after each round, the two prisoners will know each other's choice, and the tenth round's choice will be the final result. Are they going to make the same choices as they did in round one?"

Ten rounds of interrogation?

When Zhu Yu heard Su Jing's words, he suddenly felt a little strange: "Mr. Su, are these ten rounds of interrogation necessary? As long as someone recruits in the middle, isn't it over? The evidence is already there."

Su Jing was taken aback for a moment, but he didn't expect this guy to ask such a question.

Not to mention, the prisoner's game is a theoretical model, and it is really problematic to talk about the truth.

Su Jing smiled and said: "You just treat these two people as someone teasing them, and see how they will make a choice."

It may take a long time to really explain what the theoretical model is, and Su Jing also gave a simple and rude reason.

"Okay, Mr. Su."

Zhu Xi nodded, but in his heart he felt that Su Jing's gameplay was quite interesting, and he could try it when he had a chance.

Su Jing continued to add: "These two prisoners can still discuss in advance, but they will be interrogated separately during the interrogation."

"What choice do you think they will make?"

The crowd began to think again.

Zhu Wei said: "Master Su, the students thought that since there were ten rounds, the two prisoners would know each other's choices in the previous rounds. In this way, some trust should be established, and the final choice was silent, so that Get the best outcome for both parties.”

"Fifth brother, you think too well of people. What if these two people always choose to confess their crimes? Anyway, they are tough to the end."

Zhu Xi said disapprovingly.

At this time Zhu Yan said: "Second brother, if these two prisoners were smart, they would definitely not choose to confess their crimes at the beginning, but would definitely remain silent."

"Huh? Third brother, what do you mean by this?"

Zhu Xing frowned, his face was a little ugly, because he seemed to hear that Zhu Xing was scolding himself for being stupid.

Zhu Yan immediately explained: "Second brother, you see, everyone knows that the prisoners must be doing it for their own benefit. Since the first nine rounds were all fake, then in order to paralyze the other party, they must choose silence, and they will confess in the tenth round. , so that you can suddenly change your words, so that you can get a more favorable result for yourself?"

Hearing this, Zhu Xi thought for a moment, nodded and said, "It seems to be the case."

"Third brother, according to what you said, the two prisoners are both smart. They were silent in the first nine rounds and changed their confession in the tenth round. The final result will be the same as the previous one-time interrogation."

Zhu Biao said thoughtfully.

"That's right, that's really the case, ten times and one time, there seems to be no difference."

Zhu Xi widened his eyes and said.

At this time, everyone also looked at Su Jing.

Su Jing smiled and said: "Then, let's change it again. If it is still interrogated multiple times and other conditions are the same, just don't tell the prisoner how many times it is true? Will this result change?"

Su Jing's question made the princes think again.

The previous two rounds had given them a certain understanding of this topic.

This meeting, the discussion is also somewhat intense.

"I think it's still the same. Anyway, confessing can at least guarantee that I will be sentenced to two years less than ten years."

"Second brother, I don't think it's right. It's been many times. They don't know which time will be the last time. If I were one of the prisoners, I would at least choose to remain silent for the first time."

"Well, if it were me, I might choose to remain silent, lie to the other party first, and then confess at the end."

"But we don't know which time was the last time? What if it wasn't the last time to confess?"

"If it's not, then it's not, and you won't lose anything."

"Then if the silence deceived the other party before, it would be the last time?"

"It makes sense! Isn't that still the same result as the first time?"

"No, I think it's because everyone was silent in the first round. I don't know if the second round is the last time. The two prisoners may still choose to remain silent. They have the same idea. In fact, they are all to reduce their sentences. Anyway. Don't know which round will be the last one, someone will try."

Listening to his sons discussing, Zhu Yuanzhang was also thinking about this issue.

He didn't think like the princes on behalf of the prisoners, but thought about himself as an interrogator, whether such a method could be used.

For some cases where it is difficult to distinguish between different opinions, it seems that this method seems to be very useful.

After a while, the princes unified their conclusions and said to Su Jing:
"Mr. Su, we think that if we don't know how many times, there are three possibilities for the prisoner to choose. They are all silent and confess, and one is silent and the other confesses. We still have to see how many times and how many times."

Hearing this, Su Jing nodded slightly and said: "Yes, it seems that you have really thought about it seriously. In fact, the prisoner has not changed, but the limiting conditions have changed, and the result will also change accordingly."

"This is the manifestation of a game psychology. Everyone is for their own interests. In many cases, both sides lose. For their own interests, it is the interests of the collective that are harmed."

"Under a single game, everyone's demands for interests stay in the present, and for the victory of this game, they choose the outcome that is most beneficial to their personal interests."

"And once it becomes an unknown number of games, the interest demands are still the same, but people will not unconsciously put the pursuit of victory in the next game, and a delicate balance will appear."

"This is what I want to tell you, the prisoner's game."

Su Jing didn't intend to go too deep. In economics, the prisoner's game is a very common problem.

For these children, it is almost enough to say so much.

"Mr. Su, but you still didn't say it, what's the use of it?"

Zhu Xi said again: "Could it be that the purpose of interrogation is to interrogate the prisoner?"

Su Jing shook her head and said: "Of course not, the prisoner's game is a shortcut for you to see the essence of a matter and find the best solution."

"In life, there are games everywhere. How to make yourself make the most correct choice is its usefulness."

After Su Jing finished speaking, these princes didn't quite understand.

For this thing, it is more appropriate to give an example.

Su Jing frowned and thought about it. He had a lot of actual cases in his mind, but they were all games between modern enterprises, so it is not very suitable to talk about them here.

After thinking for a while, Su Jing's eyes fell on the moon cakes on the table, and he suddenly had an idea.

"Come on, let's play a little game."

Su Jing picked up the moon cake and said: "Now I have a moon cake in my hand, and you all want it."

"If a game is played in pairs, if both parties choose to share, then this piece of mooncake will be divided into two and divided equally. If one chooses to share and the other chooses to eat alone, then the person who eats alone will get all. If both choose to eat alone , then the two of you won’t get any mooncake crumbs, you can communicate with each other before choosing, and you will have something to say to each other.”

As soon as Su Jing finished speaking, Zhu Xi said, "Then I'll tell the other party, it's fine if everyone chooses to split evenly."

Zhu Di shook his head and said: "If you want mooncakes, you have to choose to eat alone. Otherwise, if the other party chooses to eat alone, then I will get nothing. I will tell the other party that I want to eat alone."

Zhu Xi looked at Zhu Di and said, "Fourth brother, then you will get nothing if you do this, neither of the two of you will get anything."

Zhu Di replied: "If there is no one, there will be none. I will not pin my hopes on other people's choices."

Simple and crisp answer.

For a moment, Zhu Xi didn't know how to answer.

Su Jing glanced at Zhu Di, the fourth child was a hardliner.

Zhu Biao said: "Master Su, the students think that kind words and persuasion are the best."

Zhu Wei replied: "I think what the fourth brother said makes sense, but you have to give the other party a little hope. For example, after I get the mooncakes by myself, I will give half to the other party."

Zhu Xi laughed when he heard this: "Third brother, other people have to believe what you said! If you don't tell the difference, won't you have nothing?"

Zhu Yan nodded and said: "Yes, I don't know, I have nothing, but I choose to take it all, you choose everything and have nothing, will you take a gamble to see my reputation?"

This.
Zhu Chen's words directly made Zhu Chen stunned.

He substituted it in, and it was really what the third brother Zhu Yan said.

Once the other party wants to choose to take it all, my choice is to believe the latter and not to trust the other party.

Su Jing listened to the answer of the third child Zhu Yan, and couldn't help but pay attention to a few words in his heart.

This Zhu Yan, his mind is really fast.

But in a single choice, his answer is basically the most correct answer.

"Yes, it makes sense. In such a choice, pure trust is meaningless. This is a game, and everyone is for their own interests."

Su Jing looked at a few people and said, "Then, how do you think it will be changed so that you can develop trust in each other? Or in other words, choose a result that is good for everyone."

After Su Jing asked the question, these princes fell into silence again.

But after a while, Zhu Wei said: "Master Su, the students think that as long as there are enough mooncakes and enough games between us, it will be all right."

"Oh, tell me, why?"

With a smile on his face, Su Jing asked Zhu Xi.

Zhu Wei replied: "The choice of a single moon cake is naturally the best to eat alone, but if there are enough people participating and enough moon cakes, then the person who eats alone will naturally not have anyone to play with him next time, and choose to share equally." Then you can find another opponent to continue playing.”

"As long as you can think of this level, then in the end everyone will always choose to share the mooncakes equally in order to keep getting mooncakes."

Regardless of Zhu Huan's young age, as soon as these words came out, everyone present frowned and thought.

It is enough to increase the number of times.

"Very well, Niu Su, you are right."

Su Jing praised: "This is the application of game theory. The games in life are complex and diverse. A single game is for personal benefit, and choosing betrayal is the best result."

"But once the number of games is extended enough, the purpose of the game changes from obtaining immediate benefits to long-term benefits, and naturally tends to be the best choice for collective interests."

"This is true between people, and it is even more so between countries. At the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the Three Kingdoms struggled for hegemony, which is a typical embodiment of game theory."

"Under the complicated situation at that time, Zhuge Kongming saw at a glance that alliance with Wu against Cao was the only correct choice, so he personally came forward to lobby for the alliance."

"However, the people of Soochow were short-sighted, and repeatedly broke the alliance for their own interests, causing the alliance to exist in name only, and was finally swept away by Cao."

"If Soochow can look at this matter from the perspective of game theory, it will be able to understand that the interests of Shu and Wu are higher than those of Wu and one country. Only alliances can be the only way out."

"Unfortunately, the development of history has already explained everything. Not everyone has a clear mind."

As soon as Su Jing changed the subject, he turned to the Three Kingdoms struggle for hegemony. These princes are very familiar with the history of the Three Kingdoms.

As soon as this example was mentioned, they immediately realized the importance of game theory.

"It turns out that the alliance between Shu and Wu can also be explained by this theory."

Zhu Yan muttered to himself, only feeling that the theory Su Jing said was extremely appropriate.

This is really the case.

"Mr. Su is a great talent, the students understand."

Zhu Bing bowed his hands to Su Jing earnestly, his face was full of reverence.

"Mr. Su is very knowledgeable, thank you students!"

The other princes also bowed and thanked Su Jing one by one.

This game theory made them feel something different.

Su Jing smiled, she can deal with these children with her half-baked level.

However, he didn't notice that Zhu Yuanzhang was also carefully appreciating the game theory Su Jing said at this time.

To talk about the history of the Three Kingdoms, Zhu Yuanzhang has read it many times, and Liu Bowen has also explained it to him.

The combination of Shu and Wu was because the lips were dead and the teeth were cold. They must be united in order not to be annexed by Cao Cao.

Wu Guo's short-sightedness and betrayal of the alliance were also criticized by Liu Bowen, but he didn't talk much about it.

Although Zhu Yuanzhang understands the reason, Su Jing's story using game theory is novel and at the same time makes it easier for people to understand the relationship.

Personal interests and group interests, in the face of the game, the choice of personal interests will result in the loss of collective interests, but the result of the game is still to choose personal interests.

Zhu Yuanzhang was greatly moved by Su Jing's understanding of this political relationship.

The more he looked at Su Jing, the more he liked it.

Such a talent is indeed the best candidate to assist Zhu Biao.

(End of this chapter)