African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1008 Analysis
If you want to intervene in the Russo-Japanese War, you must prepare in advance. In every previous large-scale war, Ernst had already made relevant arrangements in advance to profit from it. Now Ernst faces three possibilities. One is that the Russo-Japanese War is postponed, the second is that the Russo-Japanese War does not occur, and the third is that the direction is consistent with the previous life.

The possibility of an early outbreak is almost non-existent. Because of Ernst, Japan's overall level is not as strong as in the previous life, and Tsarist Russia has not done much, just like in the previous life. At the same time, the Russo-Turkish War and the Western Region War were not as smooth as in the previous life, so even if a war breaks out between the two countries, it is unlikely to break out in advance.

In the Russo-Japanese War, Japan was more proactive than Russia. Therefore, when Japan was actively preparing for war, there was no unified opinion within Russia. In response to Japan's all-out attack, the hastily prepared Russian army was ultimately defeated. Therefore, the country should use Japan as the standard for determining the duration of the war.

Therefore, if East Africa wants to predict the time of the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War, it only needs to keep a close eye on the movements of the Japanese government and army. Once Japan completes its military expansion, it will inevitably have to fight under the financial pressure. At present, among the Far Eastern countries, Japan will not act rashly in the sphere of influence of Britain, France and East Africa.

The interests of Britain, France and the United States in the Far East overlap to a certain extent. Take Shanghai as an example. It was leased by Britain and France. Although the United States did not lease it, it had strong economic strength.

The sphere of influence in East Africa seems to be a good target, and although the relationship between East Africa and Japan is average, it is impossible for Japan to become its target unless Japan can withstand the pressure from Germany, Austria and East Africa at the same time. Therefore, the brand of the German country is very useful, and the business groups of the three Far Eastern countries can actually be regarded as a whole.

Russia's sphere of influence is in the northeast. Although Russia borders the Far Eastern Empire and has the Trans-Siberian Railway, the transportation capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway is a huge problem. For example, when the Russo-Japanese War broke out in the previous life, the sections of the Trans-Siberian Railway such as Lake Baikal were not completed.

Moreover, the geographical location of the Tsarist Russia's sphere of influence happened to be the first stop of Japan's invasion policy. The order of Japan's invasion policy was to use the peninsula as a springboard, and the next step was the area currently illegally occupied by the Russians.

The reason why Britain wanted to intervene was also related to the current sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia. As the country with the greatest interests in the Far East Empire, Britain's sphere of influence was divided into two parts by the Huaihe River and the East African Huaihai Economic Zone.

This can be seen from the distribution of trading ports. The most important coastal trading port in East Africa is Jiaozhou, while Shanghai in the south and Yingkou in the north are both under the control of the British. Therefore, when Russian forces continue to move southward, the first threat will be to the interests of Britain and other countries.

Although the Huaihai Economic Zone has developed well in recent years, it is impossible to make up for the fact that its economy in the eastern coastal area of ​​the Far East Empire is relatively weak in a short period of time. After all, the Yellow River bursting, various natural disasters, frequent wars, and the East African immigration policy are destined to make it difficult for the local population to return to its heyday.

The fundamental reason for the economic recovery lies in the rapid development of cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone. In contrast, agriculture in the Huaihai Economic Zone has not yet fully recovered.

Moreover, the main economic force driving economic development in the region has changed from East Africa, Germany, and Austria to Germany, East Africa, and Austria. With East Africa's vigorous development of its local economy, immigration policy adjustments, state-owned enterprise reforms and other reasons, East Africa's activity in the Far Eastern Empire is no longer as high as that of German capital.

Fortunately, East Africa has a relatively solid foundation in the local area, so it is still the second dominant force in the region after the Far Eastern Imperial authorities.

In short, even if other countries are eyeing the Huaihai Economic Zone now, the most anxious countries should include Germany, not just East Africa.

Therefore, in the region, what Britain and Japan are most afraid of and easiest to attack is the area radiating from Russian influence.

As for the second situation, there is a great possibility that war will not break out between Japan and Russia. This mainly depends on the attitude of the Japanese government. However, with the secret meeting between the British and Japanese governments, Ernst is already very sure that the Japanese government's ambitions are expanding. As for the third situation, it is basically the same as in the previous life, so there is nothing much to say.

Ernst: "Suppose a war breaks out between the two countries and we want to gain benefits from it, our main target will be Russia. Russia is at a strategic disadvantage, and with the British making trouble, Russia will have no choice but to turn to us in East Africa for help." In the previous life, Russia was tricked by Britain, and some of its main naval forces in Europe were unable to fully support the war because of British obstruction.

Because of the treaty, the Russian Black Sea Fleet could not even pass through the Dardanelles, so in the end it could only draw forces from the most powerful Baltic Fleet, bypass the African continent, and finally reach Asia, because Gibraltar and the Suez Canal were also controlled by the British.

Not only did the ships' detour around the Cape of Good Hope increase the sailing time and difficulty, but also because of British intervention, the neutral forces in Africa in the past did not dare to provide assistance to Tsarist Russia and rest.

This resulted in the sleeping places of the Tsarist Russian soldiers being covered with coal dust. The Tsarist Russian Navy was able to reach the Far East waters without carrying large amounts of coal and supplies and without effective rest. This was a very satisfactory performance.

But the situation in this time and space is different. East Africa occupies a small half of Africa and has stable colonies in the South Pacific region. It is fully capable of providing relevant services to the Russian fleet.

Of course, whether East Africa will cooperate with Russia depends on what chips Britain and Tsarist Russia can offer that will make East Africa excited.

As for the scope of interests, it doesn’t matter if we provide services to Russia. In Ernst’s view, if a war breaks out, Russia will undoubtedly lose, and even if East Africa provides services to its navy, it will not change the result.

"The second is the problem of Tsarist Russia's funds. We can give Russia some help in this regard, but it must be supported by collateral or short-term loans, especially mineral resources such as oil."

During the Russo-Japanese War, Russia had a huge funding gap. Although Russia was a big country, the expenses of the Russo-Japanese War were enormous, and the Russian government was already heavily in debt. If another large-scale war was fought, the Russian treasury would be drained of money.

Moreover, although lending money to Russia could make a profit, it was very risky. Russia's largest creditor in the past was France. Since the Franco-Prussian War, France, a usurious country, has been lending money to Russia. France has provided Russia with a large amount of loans, but the French could not have imagined that their massive investment in Tsarist Russia would eventually be defaulted by the new government due to the change of regime in Russia.

Therefore, East Africa cannot do long-term business. Even if the Russian regime does not collapse, debt collection work in East Africa will not be easy because Russia has too many creditors, including France, Britain, Germany, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Debt collection work is difficult with so many competitors, so East Africa can only think of ways to get resources from Russia.

Among all Russian resources, oil is what East Africa needs most. The Russian regime collapsed in 1917, and there were more than ten years in between, which was enough time for East Africa to obtain a large amount of oil resources from the Baku oil fields.

The Russian government, which is unable to repay its debts, will certainly be happy to accept East Africa's proposal. At least before the Russian government goes bankrupt, East Africa can make a lot of money.

Ernst went on to say, "Now it all depends on the game between Britain, Japan, and Russia. We have to lay the net well in advance to reap rich rewards. In particular, we have to pay attention to the movements of the Japanese and Russian governments. It's best for us to place bets at critical moments."

You certainly can't just bet on Russia. In East Africa, you want to take over both countries. In the Russo-Japanese War, the more brutal the fight between the two countries, the better.

(End of this chapter)