African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1013: Taking sides
"Your Highness, now is the time to express our country's attitude. Based on the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be basically determined that Tsarist Russia and Japan will eventually have a war, and both sides are making preparations for this war." Felix said.

"Russia has revealed its thoughts on war with Japan. According to gossip, the Russian government has long concluded that war with Japan will occur between 1903 and 1905."

"So, the attitude towards war is not a sudden idea, but a long-planned event in Russia. The intelligence we have collected from Europe and the Far East also pointed out that the Russian government is strengthening its military forces in the Far East recently."

"So the war news leaked from Russia is obviously not groundless. They are likely to launch the first attack on Japan."

Ernst basically agreed with Felix's inference. However, the Russo-Japanese War in the previous life started with Japan's sneak attack on the Russian army. However, Felix could never have imagined that such a "small" country as Japan would be so unethical.

Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix, but let him continue.

"At the same time, Japan is also actively preparing for war. Especially after signing the relevant agreement with the United Kingdom, the military cooperation between the two countries has become increasingly frequent. It is estimated that Japan also has the support of the United States and the Far East Empire."

It is impossible to imagine that the cooperation between Britain and Japan was not frequent, after all, most of the ships in the Japanese fleet came from or were imitated from Britain.

It is not surprising that the Far Eastern Empire supports Japan. This is not just a random conjecture by East African officials, but is based on real evidence. Although there is no official statement, many important figures in the Far Eastern Empire have already had connections with Japan, and this is obviously directed by the current government of the Far Eastern Empire.

But this is understandable. Although the two countries have fought wars, the threat posed by Tsarist Russia to the Far Eastern Empire is now far greater than that posed by Japan.

Today, the Tsarist Russia's Pacific Fleet is stationed in Lushun, and many military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far Eastern Empire. So just from the surface, Tsarist Russia has caused serious damage to the core interests of the Far Eastern Empire.

Of course, in the 19th century and the early 20th century, "any country that was a neighbor of Tsarist Russia would have been so nervous, because the Tsarist Russia's paper data was too exaggerated. From the perspective of today's people, Russia's mere presence is quite scary.

Ernst also said at this time: "The possibility of war between Russia and Japan is at least 90%, and it is very likely to break out this year or next year. Now that the expansion of the Japanese navy is nearing completion, when the Japanese government's 66-fleet plan is completely completed, the war will not be far away."

"According to our intelligence personnel's estimates, the Six-Six Fleet Plan should be fully completed next year, and the Japanese government cannot afford to support such a large army. They can only maintain the operation of their country by launching wars."

"So Japan will definitely start a war next year at the latest, and the only opponents Japan can target are Tsarist Russia or the Far Eastern Empire. Between the two countries, Tsarist Russia has the highest chance."

Japan has always been on the path of light military and aggressiveness, so there is no way it will stop. As for Russia, it is not so certain.

However, as long as either country is determined, the war is inevitable, so Ernst judged that the probability of war breaking out next year is more than 90%, and Japan will definitely take the first step.

Because Russia has only just begun to borrow money everywhere, this to a certain extent reflects Russia's hesitation in its attitude towards the war with Japan. This hesitation was also one of the important factors in Russia's failure in the past.

If Russia paid more attention to Japan, the course of the war might have changed. However, judging from the information Ernst has obtained now, there is a high probability that Russia will repeat the mistakes of the past.

Siweitt asked, "Then, Your Highness, what role should we play in this war that is very likely to happen? Should we support Russia or Japan?" Ernst said, "But whoever wins between Japan and Russia will have little impact on us. In my opinion, Japan is very likely to win the war, but even if we stand on the side of the winner, we in East Africa cannot become the first winner."

"If Russia wins, France will undoubtedly benefit the most. If Japan wins, Britain and France will benefit the most. Therefore, there is no need for us in East Africa to easily take sides."

"For us now, it is to actively seek benefits from this war as much as possible without affecting the economic development of our country. Between Japan and Russia, our interests in Russia are the greatest, so we must gain benefits from Russia as much as possible."

Russia is one of the largest markets in East Africa and is rich in resources. In addition, the Russian Black Sea can directly reach the east coast of East Africa, making Russia an important economic partner of East Africa.

Therefore, compared with Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa. Therefore, when betting between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even though Russia is very likely to fail in the war.

"Russia is one of the most important markets for our agricultural and industrial products, especially for high-end industrial products such as automobiles and electricity. In Japan, our interests are almost negligible. The Japanese economy is mainly controlled by Britain and the United States. Even if we try hard, we can't squeeze in, and it's difficult for Japan to come up with chips that will make us excited."

"Finally, whether it is Russia or Japan, their expansion in the Far East may eventually harm our interests, so if Russia and Japan can both suffer losses, that would be the best news for us."

In Ernst's view, Russia was most likely to be defeated. After all, the Russian navy was just a facade, and although the Japanese navy was not as large as the Russian navy, it was not inferior to any country in the Far East.

This also further strengthened Ernst's attitude of providing limited support to Russia. For many countries in the world, Russia is very unwelcome.

But for East Africa, the situation is just the opposite. At least at this stage, the economies of East Africa and Russia are highly complementary, which has led to relatively harmonious relations between the two countries due to issues of interest.

Therefore, East Africa would never offend Russia. Instead, it would support Russia. However, this support would not enable Russia to win the war, but would only slow down Russia's defeat and consume more of Japan's potential.

So Ernst said: "We can negotiate with the Tsarist Russian government. We can provide Russia with certain support in areas such as funding, but Russia also needs to show sincerity and make it easier for our industrial and agricultural products to enter the Russian market. At the same time, Russia should increase the scope of trade with East Africa, especially making the import of products such as oil smoother."

Russia's oil costs are relatively low. Russia's developed oil fields are mainly located along the coast of the Caspian Sea. As long as they are transported over land, they can pass through the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, etc. and finally reach East Africa.

Although Romanian and Austro-Hungarian oil have more advantages in transportation costs, their production is relatively low and they have many competitors, which has also led to an increasing share of Russian oil resources in East African imported oil.

The development of East Africa's oil industry and internal combustion engine vehicles has led to an increasingly strong demand for oil resources in East Africa, making it impossible for East Africa to ignore Russia's oil resources.

Oil is just a typical resource. East Africa also has a prominent demand for other Russian products, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The two countries have strong agricultural complementarity. As a tropical country and a cold temperate country, the two countries' advantageous crops do not conflict with each other.

Moreover, the quality of Russian agricultural products, especially grains, taste and nutrition are better than those of other European countries, and much better than those of East Africa. Currently, except for rice, East African grains are more developed towards the direction of industrial production raw materials because the quality and taste can no longer meet the needs of the people.

(End of this chapter)