African Entrepreneurship Records 2

Chapter 1053 Persian Gulf

When the Second Five-Year Plan for East Africa was being carried out, the world in 1907 was not peaceful. The contradictions between European countries became increasingly severe, especially between Germany and France, which was obviously affected to a certain extent by the economic crisis.

The relationship between Britain and Russia also underwent a certain degree of change. Russia was the biggest loser in the Russo-Japanese War, but the subsequent impact was not entirely unfavorable to Russia. For example, on the issue of Central Asia, Russia and Britain reached a compromise, and the two countries renegotiated on Persia, Afghanistan and other regions. The reasons for the warming of relations between the two countries are also quite complicated.

"Britain and Russia may have reached some kind of tacit agreement on Central Asia and the northwest region of the Far East Empire. With Russia's poor performance in the Russo-Japanese War, the threat of Russia has been greatly reduced in the eyes of the British. After the economic crisis, the Russo-Japanese War, and the domestic movement, the predicament of the Tsarist government also forced them to improve relations with Britain."

"But the compromise between the two countries in the conflicting region of Central Asia will have a certain adverse impact on us. Central Asia, including Afghanistan and other countries, as well as Persia in the Middle East, are important destinations for my country's commodity exports. In the past, my country was able to fish in troubled waters by relying on the conflict between Britain and Russia. But once Britain and Russia divide their spheres of influence, it will obviously be disadvantageous for my country's commodity exports."

Relying on the relationship with the Omanis (formerly Zanzibar merchants), East Africa opened up trade with Central Asia and the countries along the Persian Gulf at an early stage.

As major participants in the regional order, Britain and Russia have been unable to reach an agreement in the past due to various differences. This has also ensured the smooth flow of local trade in East Africa. Therefore, the "reconciliation" between Britain and Russia will inevitably affect the interests of East Africa.

Listening to the analysis of the intelligence department, Ernst felt heavy-hearted. East Africa, like the United States, is not keen on participating in international politics for the time being, but its core interest in maintaining its own economic development will not change.

For example, the United States' "Monroe Doctrine" and the recently proposed "Open Door Policy" are essentially the expansion of the United States' economic sphere of influence and a sign that American industrial products are moving from America to the world.

East Africa did not have an African version of the "Monroe Doctrine" in the past, but through its influence on neighboring countries, it has roughly formed an "East African Economic Circle". However, the value of this economic circle is far less than the sphere of influence built by the United States in North America. Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean countries are far from being comparable to countries or colonies such as the Abyssinian Empire and the Kingdom of South Germany.

Moreover, the Monroe Doctrine of the United States is a clear political proposition. The East African economic circle has not yet formed a clear political and economic concept. This is mainly because the surrounding British and French colonies are relatively strong and do not have higher autonomy like South America.

Of course, East Africa’s decision not to expand the scope of the East African Economic Circle for the time being is also related to consolidating the peaceful external development environment. This kind of unspoken exchange of interests has indeed greatly eased the relationship between East Africa and other countries.

The situation in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf coast is different. East Africa naturally attaches importance to the Indian Ocean coast. After all, most of East Africa's coastline is located on the Indian Ocean coast. It is the largest country along the Indian Ocean coast. This also makes East Africa always want to play a greater role in the Indian Ocean.

East Africa divides the Indian Ocean into roughly five regions, including the South China Plate, the Oceania Plate, the Indian Plate, the Arabian Plate, and the African Plate.

The core of Oceania is Australia, which, like India, is an undisputed colony of Britain. At the same time, Britain's influence in other regions is also very strong.

For example, Egypt and British Somaliland on the African plate, Yemen, Oman, the western coast of the Persian Gulf (such as the United Arab Emirates), and Persia on the Arab plate all have British colonies or are British protectorates, and the same is true for the South Pacific plate.

Therefore, in the Indian Ocean, which East Africa regards as its core interest for the future, Britain is the biggest obstacle for East Africa. As for other countries, the threat is far less than that from Britain.

If East Africa wanted to dismantle Britain's sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean, it would naturally need to proceed step by step, starting with the Arab plate and the South Pacific plate where Britain had weaker control, and finally Egypt (Red Sea), Australia, India and other core colonies of Britain along the Indian Ocean coast.

Of these plates, the Arab plate is the easiest to intervene in, because there are relatively independent countries such as Persia and the Ottoman Empire in the region. If Britain and Russia determine their own spheres of influence, it will be difficult for East Africa to intervene in the future. This is why the United States proposed the "open door" when the world divided the spheres of influence of the Far East Empire, which is to prevent other countries from excluding American interests.

If East Africa does not intervene in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, it will face the same choice as the United States. Therefore, in order to maintain its interests in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, and to plant chess pieces in the region in the future, East Africa cannot remain indifferent.

"The actions of Britain and Russia have almost no impact on the Ottoman Empire, so the Ottoman Empire will inevitably choose to 'play dead'. Therefore, if we want to intervene in regional affairs, we can only use Persia as the main lever. Although we may not be able to stop Britain and Russia, we must at least ensure our country's voice and economic interests in the region."

East Africa's trade activities with Central Asia and the Persian Gulf coast are quite convenient. Not only are they close in distance, but they are also traded by sea, which has the lowest cost. This has enabled East African industrial products to gain territory in the region in recent years and form a huge network of interests. Therefore, East Africa is unlikely to give up its local interests easily.

Of course, it is unlikely that East Africa will directly go to war with Britain and Russia for this place. After all, East Africa’s naval strength does not have much advantage over the two countries.

In this case, if East Africa wants to intervene in this region, it can only do so by supporting agents, but given the Ottoman Empire's current timid situation, it cannot be relied upon.

Persia became the only choice for East Africa. Persia has always been one of the traditional powers in the Middle East and Central Asia, and has great influence in the region.

Moreover, this round of negotiations between Britain and Russia had the greatest negative impact on Persia. Britain and Russia almost divided Persia into two with the Persian Gulf as the boundary, which definitely damaged Persia's interests.

However, Persia has declined greatly in modern times, and its industrial and military strength are weak. Without national support, it would probably have no choice but to surrender in the face of the tacit understanding between Britain and Russia.

"Persia has always been politically inclined towards Britain, and some have been inclined towards Russia. However, the main reason for the formation of these political factions is that they had no choice in the past. There are also a large number of resistance forces in the country. We can completely influence the domestic politics of Persia by supporting other forces, thereby causing more trouble for Britain and Russia, so that the two countries will have to pay attention to our interests."

Intervening in Persia is the best option for the current East African government. Although it will cause displeasure to Britain and Russia, there is also a lot of room for maneuver. This is not the core interest of the three countries, so disputes will not escalate the contradictions. At most, the countries in the region will suffer more from war, which is not something the three countries need to worry about.

After some discussion, the East African government finally decided to interfere in the internal affairs of Persia and other countries, and join Britain and Russia in dividing the Persian Gulf region.

After all, if East Africa does not intervene, it will not only be excluded from the region, but may also lose its original vested interests, which is unacceptable for East Africa.

The participation of East Africa will inevitably make the situation along the Persian Gulf more tense. In Ernst's view, if East Africa wants to expand its influence along the Indian Ocean coast, it must seize this opportunity. If successful, it will not only guarantee East Africa's vested interests, but also help East Africa's future layout in the field of energy security.

Or maybe the interests behind the Persian Gulf are too huge, and Ernst will not miss any opportunity to intervene. If he retreats at this time, the oil resources will be exposed in the future, and it will be more difficult for East Africa to intervene again.

(End of this chapter)