The Industrial Giant Reborn.

"Airline? Cao Sheng, you are trying to steal the lifeblood of the Swire Group!" Chen Zhiwen did not answer directly, but said with a smile.

"In the past, when the British Hong Kong government was in power, it was okay to have only British capital in Hong Kong's sky. Now after 97, Hong Kong will be dominated by us Chinese. No matter what, we have to have our own planes. It is best to drive away the Cathay Pacific Group. Okay." Cao Guangbiao said:

"In the past hundreds of years, although the Hong Kong government has always claimed not to interfere in the market and maintain free competition, a large number of high-quality land in Hong Kong is in the hands of British capital, and many industries related to people's livelihood are also controlled by the British, such as power plants, Public transportation, Star Ferry, natural gas, telephone companies, etc., the British control everything in Hong Kong.

However, we Chinese are ambitious and capable, and are much better than those wastes who only rely on our ancestors and policies. In the past ten years, the Chinese, led by Chen Sheng and Bao Sheng, have integrated the basics of power generation, public transportation, and natural gas. We have all the facilities in our hands, including the land in Central, Hong Kong. Our Chinese capital has also taken over half of the port in Hong Kong. This is also a blessing for us Chinese.

But in this aviation industry alone, Swire Group controls everything, and no one else can get involved at all. Therefore, I want to create an airline, but I don’t have enough capital, so I hope to introduce Chinese capital from all parties. "

"What do Chen Sheng think?" Bao Yugang on the side smiled and said: "Although the aviation industry is also volatile, affected by oil prices and the global economy, it can be regarded as a monopoly industry. In the long run, the returns are still very high. , the Swire Group has been able to develop to its current scale, at least half of the credit is due to Cathay Pacific. It is a pity that the Swire Group is not listed in Hong Kong, and the Swire family owns more than 50% of the shares of the Swire Group, so there is no way to acquire it. Otherwise, these four oceans I want to buy the last one."

"Sheng Bao is right. If Swire is listed in Hong Kong, I might want to take action." Chen Zhiwen nodded and asked: "But you also said that Cathay Pacific is a monopoly company. Even if you have You have money to buy an airplane, but how can you compete with them? The market is only so big, so why do you think that Hong Kong people will choose your new company instead of Cathay Pacific? And what about the cost? Is it better than the experienced Cathay Pacific?
Acquiring a company and building a company to compete with it, especially if the other party is a semi-monopoly, will not be a good business. "

It is normal to be optimistic about an industry and want to acquire its leading company. Even if it costs a lot, if you can do it, you will basically not lose money. But if you cannot acquire it and you still need to compete with it, that is another matter. This is just like if you are optimistic about the online shopping industry in 2020 and want to open a store to compete with JD.com, Taobao and Pinduoduo to compete for the market. If there is no special creativity, it will be impossible no matter how much money you spend. However, in traditional industries, there is no special creativity. .

"It is indeed impossible to compete head-on with Cathay Pacific, but what if after 97, the mainland government does not like Hong Kong airlines or is it controlled by British capital? As long as we establish such a company that can compete with Cathay Pacific, then the mainland government will definitely We need help." Cao Guangbiao replied: "I have gone to Yanjing before and communicated with the leaders of Yanjing's aviation department. They also agreed to our establishment of an airline and showed that they are willing to help us appropriately."

He had been asked this question countless times, and he answered it fluently. Any potential investor would definitely ask such a question.

"At the mainland government level, they will definitely say they support it." Chen Zhiwen said with a smile: "But how much support will it be? What kind of policy? Is this clear?"

"None of these things." Cao Guangbiao replied: "Sheng Chen, if I get this kind of thing first, it can only be an attitude. It's impossible to say that my company hasn't been established yet and I expect others to set policies." This is impossible in any country or anywhere, even in business cooperation, there is no such possibility."

"Of course I know this. If it's a normal business, a statement would be enough. But now we have to compete with Cathay Pacific, a monopoly giant that has ruled the sky in Hong Kong for more than 50 years. Just some verbal support like this is not enough. Yes." Chen Zhiwen shook his head and said.

Regarding the Disneyland project, our own side also sent people to the mainland to negotiate before, and only obtained some verbal promises, such as the mainland will appropriately encourage domestic people to travel to Hong Kong, etc. It is indeed impossible to formulate a document. After all, it will happen many years later. No one knows that in this early stage, only verbal support is enough, but Dragonair is different. Although he is not familiar with its history, Chen Zhiwen still knows one thing, that is, the ultimate failure of Dragonair. The reason is that it does not receive absolute support from the mainland government.

Besides, if a company relies all its hopes on the mainland government, and you are not a state-owned enterprise, it is normal for it to fail in the end.

"Sheng Chen, are you not optimistic about Dragonair?" Bao Yugang suddenly asked.

"Yes, not optimistic." Chen Zhiwen nodded and said: "At present, there is no advantage. The only chance is to gain domestic support, but the policy cannot be implemented. And most importantly, if you really want to gain support from the mainland, To support it, it would be necessary to introduce a large amount of domestic capital, or even turn the company into a state-owned enterprise, but in this case, there will definitely be many problems on the Hong Kong and British side, and this is the contradiction. "

"Sheng Chen, domestic capital cannot hold most of the equity of Hong Kong companies, but I still think that as long as we succeed, it is impossible for the mainland not to help us. There is no reason why the mainland government cannot support us Chinese, right? Can it still support Cathay Pacific?" Isn’t it possible to fly?” Cao Guangbiao asked.

"I have a beverage company and a food company in the mainland. In these industries, there are also foreign investments from Europe, the United States and Japan, as well as domestic companies. So why do you think my food company, or those foreign-funded food companies, should be introduced to the country?" Chen Zhiwen asked: "If it is some high-tech field that cannot be made domestically, then it is normal to introduce it. But these foods can also be made domestically, right? Even if they can't be made, it won't have any impact, right?"

"What Chen Sheng means is that the country doesn't care about foreign capital or domestic capital?" Cao Guangbiao is also a smart man, and he understands it clearly.

"Maybe, I don't know what the specific idea is, but the mainland can accept a large amount of foreign investment, as long as it does not affect domestic foreign exchange. Hong Kong will not affect the country. Why do you think they will not tolerate it?" Chen Zhiwen asked back road.

"Accepting foreign investment is a basic idea of ​​​​current international trade freedom. It is normal for the country to accept a lot of foreign investment, but why, any country will also prefer its own enterprises? Isn't it the same in Europe and the United States?" Cao Guangbiao thought about it He wanted to say again.

"This sentence is correct. The country will definitely favor its own companies. I can also guess that after Dragonair is established, it will definitely get domestic help, but how much help will it have? Mr. Cao Have you considered it?" Chen Zhiwen added: "According to international practice, although there are non-franchised airlines abroad, those are also megacities, cities about the same size as Hong Kong, and they are all franchised and exclusive. At present, Hong Kong's major airlines For trade, more than [-]% of travel is overseas, and only a few percentage points are from the mainland. China World Airline still has a few routes, so what special routes can Dragonair get? Do you think the mainland government can do it, and Yanjing will now , take the routes to Shanghai and Guangdong back from Cathay Pacific and then transfer them to you?"

"Chen Sheng has considered it more comprehensively." Bao Yugang nodded and said. He had heard an old friend say that he wanted to invest in airlines, and he had received support from the mainland, so he didn't think too much and was ready to invest.

Of course, this may also be due to the small amount of funds needed. A mere tens of millions is nothing to him. He just didn't expect that Chen Zhiwen, who would not take such a small amount of money seriously, would actually analyze it so well.

"The route may not be certain. If the country agrees to open an additional route, the Hong Kong government may not insist on making concessions." Cao Guangbiao added.

In recent years, the Hong Kong government has been relatively cautious about the mainland's demands. It does not have a very strong confidence and generally does not dare to reject the mainland's demands casually.

"Okay, even if there are several domestic routes for you, your airline always has to be promoted in Hong Kong, right? Hong Kong's airport is controlled by Cathay Pacific, and you may not even be able to find a place to sell tickets. You can't sell tickets in the city center and then let passengers take the tickets to the airport? Where do you open a store? People in Hong Kong are going to the airport all over Hong Kong. How can you let everyone buy a ticket? Another one, or what I just said That said, your cost advantage is not as good as that of Cathay Pacific, unless you can keep burning money, but Cathay Pacific is also not short of money, easily making hundreds of millions a year." Chen Zhiwen continued.

Dragonair completely failed in later generations. Chen Zhiwen knew this, but the process of failure is not clear. However, the reason must be that the domestic support that was originally expected was never available, or that there was support but it was not strong enough.

If Cathay Pacific was its own airline, it could easily kill such a competitor. Historically, Dragonair has been able to exist for many years because of the promotion of the mainland government.

"I have also considered these issues." Cao Guangbiao said: "Whether it is the Hong Kong government or Cathay Pacific, they will definitely find ways to suppress our new company, but obviously Hong Kong is a free market that needs fair competition, and the Hong Kong government certainly cannot As Chen Sheng said, maybe the mainland will not support it very much, but there is some support. At least it can guarantee that we can get fair treatment. As long as we have this, I think we will also have the ability to compete with Cathay Pacific. A group arena match may not be comparable in scale, but at least it can form a potential opponent."

"You are right to say that. It is possible." Chen Zhiwen paused and then said: "But the premise of all this is that you are Hong Kong-owned and Cathay Pacific is British-owned."

"What does Chen Sheng mean?" Cao Guangbiao asked in confusion.

"It's very simple. If I were the Swire family and there were unstable factors after 97, then I would just arrange for Cathay Pacific to be listed in Hong Kong and introduce a large number of Hong Kong shareholders and investors. Do you think the country will still do it for you? , will these Hong Kong shareholders suffer heavy losses? Cathay Pacific has become a Hong Kong capital. What reason does the mainland have to help you? Even if you are listed, everyone is on the same line. Even Cathay Pacific can introduce domestic state-owned enterprises. Capital." Chen Zhiwen said.

"What a great idea, Mr. Chen!" Bao Yugang nodded and said, "If the Shihuaiya family really does this, then based on my understanding of the country, I'm afraid it will be impossible to help Dragonair anymore."

Although it was a bit cruel, after listening to Chen Zhiwen's analysis, Bao Yugang still expressed his judgment, and he also wanted to warn his old friend.

"Is it really not possible?" Cao Guangbiao was a little stunned. He originally thought that with the introduction of Bao Yugang, getting Chen Zhiwen's funds would definitely make him more powerful, and he could compete with Cathay Pacific Airways, but he didn't expect a basin of cold water. After pouring it down, even he felt that this investment was not viable.

"I have always had a taboo in doing business, and that is to compete with mature companies in a mature market. If the mainland is really determined to help you, then there may be some opportunities. Otherwise, being an airline is... You will definitely lose money." Chen Zhiwen said: "However, if you consider just doing freight, there may be some opportunities."

If it weren't for the huge market in the mainland, Chen Zhiwen would not have touched the home appliance industry. This market is also mature overseas. At most, Midea will only develop in the gaming and computer fields. This is the most basic principle of business entrepreneurship.

It is almost impossible for Dragonair to challenge Cathay Pacific, which monopolizes the Hong Kong sky. Unless a super tycoon like Chen Zhiwen throws money into it regardless of the cost, and coupled with "fair treatment" from the mainland, it will be possible. It is successful, but from a commercial perspective, it is not cost-effective at all and can lead to huge losses.

With this kind of money, it is better to engage in real estate. In Hong Kong, no industry can compare with real estate. Swire owns branches such as Cathay Pacific Airways, Swire Shipping, Swire Properties, Swire Beverages, Swire Sugar, etc., but its scale is not comparable to those who only rent houses. settlement.

"Freight? Cathay Pacific also has freight. Doesn't it also compete for business in this area?" Cao Guangbiao asked a little decadently.

"Cathay Pacific does not operate special planes for cargo, but follows people. This has also led to the very high cost of air transport for many goods in Hong Kong. If you do cargo, this is a small market, and if you do this , Cathay Pacific and the Hong Kong government will not be too hostile to you. When there are better opportunities in the future, if you feel it is suitable, you can go into the manned business." Chen Zhiwen said with a smile. (End of chapter)