Agricultural giant since 1983

Chapter 473 The Last Straw

Continue to scan the goods, this meeting finally made a decision, they still have money, and they also feel that China must not have enough soybean storage. This is their conclusion after studying China's soybean production and import data in recent years. In conclusion, as long as we persevere, the price of soybeans will definitely rise to the sky.

At the same time, the intervention in Brazil and other South American soybean exporting countries has been strengthened. Not only are the docks and logistics storage systems controlled by them not available to the Chinese procurement team, but even the ports and logistics storage companies controlled by other companies or the Brazilian government have also gone on strike. , which greatly affected the efficiency of Brazilian soybean exports to China.

"The four major grain merchants are really omnipotent. Even if they have used such tricks, the South American countries must be more vigilant?" The news spread back to China, and the leaders of several companies were amazed, and hurriedly asked people For the record, there are still many opportunities for them to go to sea in the future, and they may encounter them at any time. We must make a plan in advance to avoid being caught off guard by them.

"Even if we strengthen our vigilance, there is not much to do. The agricultural structure of South American countries was seriously affected by the colonial period, mainly export-oriented. The four major grain merchants are not only the most important purchasers of agricultural products in these countries, but also seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. Suppliers of materials, agricultural machinery and other materials, they have controlled the entire process from upstream to downstream in South American countries. It is not easy to break through this big network! In extreme situations, it is not impossible for them to cooperate with the US government to subvert the regime of a country! " Li Lei shook his head and sighed.

However, this does not mean that they cannot do anything. Some small countries are fine. South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina will not always be willing to be controlled by the United States. At the same time, China also has a large demand for agricultural products and the technology of the entire industrial chain. A certain degree of complementarity can be formed. As long as you are not too impatient and adopt the method of gradual and gradual erosion, you can still gradually increase cooperation.

"Thanks to Li Dong's advance deployment in Brazil, at least the line from Mato Grosso to the port can be controlled, and the soybeans shipped back by this line are enough for a while!" COFCO's Mr. Gao said Looking at Li Lei, his eyes were full of admiration. When Huinong was making a big move in Brazil, he still didn't understand. Even if he wanted Brazilian soybeans, he could just go there and buy them. Why did he buy warehousing and logistics companies and terminal companies? Trouble, he just understands now, if you don’t grasp these, even if you have soybeans, you won’t be able to bring them back.

"Since they are playing tricks everywhere, let's not be too disciplined! If they want to speculate on soybeans, they have to spend money, and it is not easy for money to come in. Let's discuss with relevant institutions to see if we can reduce their efficiency in inputting funds." .” Now these leaders have also let go, and dare to use all kinds of methods.

"Yes, it takes time to go through the process. Let's ask the relevant agencies to come at a certain time and say that it will be resolved within half a month. Then we will pass it on No. 13 or [-] days, so that they can't find it. Reasons to object; if every process is like this, I don’t know how long it will take to get funds in!” They are all people who often drink tea and chat with referees, and they are familiar with these routines.

"Also, they can't stack the soybeans in the open air, right? They have to be transported away and stored in the warehouse. Can these links also be fussy? If they can't find someone to help them transport them, and they can't rent a warehouse for storage, Let's see if they dare to buy soybeans without any scruples again!" Someone suggested that these are similar to what the four major grain merchants do in Brazil.

Since they can do the first grade of junior high school, then we can do the fifteenth grade. Overseas, we can’t compete with you, and the situation in China has to be reversed. The combined influence of these companies on the domestic soybean industry is comparable to that of the four major grain merchants. Brazil's influence is much larger.

"Then continue to sell. Now is the critical time. The more you do this, the less timid you are. The first two times you sold 50 tons, this time you can simply sell 100 million tons!" Li Lei made a suggestion, the two times 50 tons The effect of selling 100 million tons at one time will definitely be completely different.

Sure enough, the four major grain merchants were directly fooled by this trick. They felt that the stocks of China Grain Storage and other institutions were almost exhausted, so they put up a bill of 30 tons to test it out. As long as the other party responded a little slower, other speculators would They can perceive the problem of supply shortage, and the price of soybean futures will be pulled up again by them.

As a result, China Grain Reserves did not hesitate at all, and directly threw out a sell order of 100 million tons. The entire market was smashed by this move. Retail investors felt that the situation was too confused and dared not accept orders. The land is almost there, and the new funds are still in the process, and there is no way to come in for a long time. Now they really can't get enough money to take the big order of 100 million tons.

"I can't give them a chance to breathe. I don't believe they really have 100 million tons of soybeans. Even if they have this time, their inventory must have been emptied. As long as they eat this batch of soybeans and place a new purchase order, they will lose." It's settled!" After a short period of panic, the four major grain merchants also went all out.

It doesn't matter if they don't have enough funds for the time being. There are still many European and American financial institutions that have entered the domestic market. Just ask them for temporary loans. With the face of the four major grain merchants, they will definitely get enough money, even if they are temporary borrowers. The interest rate is higher, but as long as China's soybean industry can be overthrown, these efforts are worthwhile, and they can easily earn massive high profits in the later stage.

The four major grain merchants urgently visited Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other institutions, and reached an agreement with their branches in China. By promising high profits and even allowing them to take a share in the soybean field, they finally got the urgently needed funds. The soybeans thrown out of the China Grain Reserve were placed.

"Now wait for the handover with peace of mind. They may not be able to produce enough soybeans at all." They analyzed China's soybean storage situation again, and even investigated the main soybean production areas in Northeast China and coastal areas by some means. No matter how you analyze the situation at the import port, there is no reason why Sinograin can produce so many soybeans.

But when it was time for the handover, Sinograin actually took out 100 million tons of soybeans. They hurriedly traced the source of this batch of soybeans, and finally found out that these batches of soybeans were shipped by sea from Guangxi. Guangxi is not a major soybean producing area. ?The total output is less than [-] tons, how could they produce so many soybeans?Imported from Southeast Asia?But Southeast Asia itself needs to import a large amount of soybeans every year, so there is still room to supply China?
Wait, Southeast Asian countries do need to import a large amount of soybeans every year, but for this reason, it is normal to buy soybeans from soybean exporting countries around the world and then ship them to Southeast Asia. If they buy soybeans in the name of other countries and store them in China can indeed confuse many people!

"Check, check the recent soybean import data in Southeast Asia!" The executives of the four major grain merchants were furious. They had been busy taking stock of China's production and import data before, but they ignored the problems in Southeast Asia. If it is what he thinks If China uses Southeast Asia for re-export, then their import data will definitely be falsified. Therefore, the data of the previous survey must not reflect China's real soybean inventory.

"Immediately, immediately!" The assistants fled out of the office in embarrassment, fearing that if they stayed for a while, they would be angered and directly fired. After going down, they immediately collected data on soybean imports in Southeast Asia through various channels, and found out that in the past two or three years, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other countries have all experienced abnormal increases in the amount of soybean imports. At first they thought that these soybeans were shipped back to their countries for oil extraction or processed into feed. However, after collecting more data, they found that the vegetable oil, The growth rate of meat and egg consumption does not match the growth of soybean imports. There must be a large number of soybeans that have not been put into the market.

"Is there any specific data?" Only with this data can we have a clear estimate of China's total soybean storage.

"I'm sorry, the time is too short, and the business order in Southeast Asia is very chaotic, so we haven't got accurate data yet, so we can only make a rough estimate!" The assistants replied tremblingly, Southeast Asia is not like the United States. In countries with relatively standardized business practices, all kinds of data can be easily found, and although the four major grain merchants have a presence in Southeast Asia, they are still not as good as local snakes like Zhengda. It is not easy to gather such data.

"Contact the Guo family and Zhengda Xie family in Singapore, and ask them if they have any news!" The four major grain merchants also have cooperative relations with these two major groups. If they help, they may be able to collect more accurate information.

However, even if combined with the data provided by the Guo family and the Xie family, it is at best to narrow the estimated range from 300 million to 700 million tons to 300 million to 500 million tons, and there is no way to get more accurate data.

"If it is 500 million tons, plus the soybeans recently purchased from Brazil, Argentina and other countries, and the sunflower seeds and other oil crops imported from Russia and Ukraine, it may really be able to make up for this year's import gap!" The big grain merchants panicked, and they suddenly had an extra 500 million tons of storage. Their previous preparations were far from enough.

And if China really does not buy soybeans from them this year, there will be an oversupply in the international soybean market this year. You must know that this year is a bumper harvest!They don't really have the soybean ethanol production technology, so they have to store a large amount of soybeans, which costs money to store, and the overstocking will also affect the flow of funds, which will have a big impact.

"Let's negotiate. If they don't buy soybeans, there will be a backlog; at the same time, I think they must be willing to negotiate with us, because even if they can barely fill the gap this year, they will definitely not be able to next year. We will definitely not let any one go this time." The country’s soybean imports have changed abnormally! Once you are prepared, you will definitely win next time!” Some people started to retreat, and now China Grain has only thrown out 200 million tons. If calculated according to the quota of 500 million tons, they still have at least 300 million tons Storage, this is not something that can be squeezed dry casually.

"If we take the initiative to negotiate, we will be in a very disadvantageous situation, and all the preparations we have made before will be wasted!" Most representatives are still unwilling. Negotiations with the Chinese side can definitely make money, but their previous expectations It's not just about making money, their goal is to control China's soybean industry chain.

"300 million tons is not much for us. We have the ability to eat it. Even if we pay high interest, as long as we can win the final victory, these costs will still be transferred to the Chinese! Wait for the 300 million tons of inventory to be consumed. After cleaning up, they have no choice but to admit defeat!"

So they found Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other institutions again, took money from them and continued to sweep goods online and offline at the same time, and Sinograin continued to sell to maintain the stability of soybean prices, 100 million tons, another 100 million tons, and another 100 million tons , Three times in a row, the price of soybeans was completely nailed to death. Now, except for the four major grain merchants, no one believes that the price of soybeans will skyrocket.

"I can assure you! They have run out of stock! Now as long as we continue to purchase, they will never be able to produce!" A vice director gritted his teeth and said, "Another 50 purchase order will be placed and see if they dare to accept it! "

"Sorry, we are almost out of money. The existing funds only allow us to purchase 25 tons!" The subordinates quickly reminded that they have been consuming a lot recently, but the funds they can get are very limited. After stockpiling, that's all the money they have left.

"That's 25 tons! I bet they can't even produce [-] tons of soybeans now!" Since it's the last moment, let's stud.

After the order was posted, Sinograin did not hesitate to place a sale order of 100 million tons. Not only could they be handed over 25 tons of soybeans, but there was also a surplus of 75 tons. Whether it is a speculator or the owner of an oil extraction company, they all feel that the price of soybeans will definitely drop. If this is the case, why rush to enter the market?

Seeing that there was no movement from the four major grain merchants, Li Lei and others knew that they had no money, so they threw the last straw, and a news was broadcast on the hourly news. The news showed that a train full of soybeans was leaving Kazakh Kazakhstan entered China, "China and Kazakhstan will strengthen cooperation in the agricultural field. In the next three years, Kazakhstan will provide China with 100 million tons of soybeans every year."

Then the screen changed to an aerial photo of the soybean fields in Kazakhstan, and the narration began to introduce the development of the soybean industry in Kazakhstan. The endless soybeans made the four major grain merchants completely lose confidence.

"Negotiate with them!" They knew that this battle could not be won.

(End of this chapter)